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Another Banner Year For Bruno?

Andrew Brunette
One of the biggest surprises of last season was the impressive offensive production of Avalanche left wing Andrew Brunette.

Bruno scored 83 points, including 27 goals, having never scored more than 70 in any season prior to 2006-07.  His success can be attributed to one man: Joe Sakic.  The reason?  Brunette played both on the top offensive line with the Avalanche captain as well as on the top power play unit with Super Joe.  Nearly half (27) of Brunette's 56 total assists came on the power play.  Spend enough time next to Sakic with a man (or two) advantage and you're bound to enjoy a boost in offensive production.

Now the question is, can he do it again?  Jes Golbez at the Fanhouse says no, warning fantasy hockey players to dump (or trade) Brunette from their rosters as soon as possible:

Unfortunately, Brunette isn't too fleet of foot, and is approaching his 34th birthday. One has to believe that his amazing streak of luck with his health and production will come to an end. Brunette will also be conceding some ice time to some of the Avs' younger forwards and, perhaps, Ryan Smyth.

It's true that Bruno can't skate very fast.  But he's got a keen sense of positioning and has learned exactly where to be on the ice when playing next to Super Joe.  And that's the real question: will Brunette be playing next to Sakic in 2007-08 as much as he did in 2006-07?

While Bruno can play both wings, he will be competing for his favorite spot on the top line against Ryan Smyth, a natural left winger who thrives down low and skates much better than he. Wojtek Wolski will likely occupy the second line's left wing spot, playing next to Paul Stastny and Milan Hejduk.  So Brunette will almost certainly find himself playing right wing, a position he can handle but doesn't come naturally to him.  The most likely outcome will be a noticeable (though not drastic) decline in points.

It's also not unlikely that the Avs' top power play line will be Smyth-Sakic-Hejduk.  Smyth was a power play goal scoring machine last season, lighting the lamp 15 times with the man advantage (mostly while playing on a dreadful Oilers power play unit).  It's impossible that Coach Q won't stick Captain Canada in the slot and just tell Liles, Leopold and Sakic to feed it to him like crazy.

Combine the shuffling of Bruno in the top line (and from the top pp unit) with his age (34) and his slowness, and it's not impossible to perceive that a guy who's only scored more than 25 goals once will have trouble doing it again.

I'm going to have to go with Jes on this one.  Brunette will be a solid player on the Avs' top line, but he's not going to score 83 points again.  Luckily, the Avs won't need him to.

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funny...

I was just about to post a diary about this!  Great minds, etc, etc...

I agree with the article and you too -- bruno isn't going to have as good a year as last year.  There's just too much incoming talent, and he's too slow.

Here's what I think is going to happen:  bruno will start the season on the top 2 even strength lines, but he's going to get pushed to the 3rd by one of the youngsters before the season ends (im guessing hlinka or wolski will play left on the 2nd line with statsny and hejduk, and svatos, richardson, or wolski will play right wing on the top line with sakic and smyth).  However, bruno'll continue to play on the top PP unit though, where his positioning, hockey sense and chemistry with joey really make him valuable.

On the other hand, all this talk of lines is silly -- Q doesn't keep lines together for entire periods, let alone from game to game.  We'll see how things fall out, but I think bruno will turn into more of a PP specialist that plays on the bottom 2 lines this season.  and he won't be resigned after this year.  :(

by thedoctor on Aug 14, 2007 8:42 AM MDT reply actions  

Re: funny...

You're right about Coach Q, the lines he starts a game with are almost never the same by the end of the 1st period.  He's definitely a shuffler.

As for Bruno being re-signed, he won't be unless he has another 83 point season.  Good luck to him.

by Joe Dunman on Aug 14, 2007 10:54 AM MDT up reply actions  

Re: bruno

I completely agree about the speed/intelligence point.  Bruno probably conserves more energy than any other player on the ice because he's not constantly flying around everywhere.  He can't.  He just skates to the best spot he can find, passes or shoots and starts over.  A very economical player, and a perfect fit for the Avalanche last season.

by Joe Dunman on Aug 14, 2007 3:36 PM MDT reply actions  

I disagree

I'm obviously in the minority here.  Bruno is one guy that just doesn't translate well to the stat sheet.  At first glance you could say that he's a product of Sakic's greatness.  This is true, of course.  However, it's not true in the sense that Jes believes.  Like a lot of players that ride the coattails of superstar line-mates, points can come from the least of contributions.  Morrow would stack points because he would pass it off at the blue line and Naslund/Bertuzzi would create the play.

But that doesn't apply to Bruno's contribution last season.  He wasn't the beneficiary of 2nd assists.  He served as a direct catalyst to a lot of Sakic's production.  This is one area of hockey (DD will appreciate this) where statistics don't paint the entire picture unless you evaluate his primary assists versus secondary assists.  The weakest point in hockey is the second assist from a guy who did nothing to create the scoring chance.  Bruno single handily fed Sakic in the slot many, many times.  Yes, Sakic finished but Brunette made some heroic efforts to place the puck for him in a scoring position.

What's different this year?  He's going to have some predictable injury because he's a year older?  I think that's a stretch.  He's going to have a different first line mate?  Let's think about this, we are going from Wolski to Smyth on the first line and that makes Bruno's game less effective?  I'm not seeing the logic there myself.  Bruno was a man on an island in the corners last year.  Svatos and Wolski constantly floated in the crease and away from assisting the puck carrier behind the net.  Smyth not only will give Bruno more support on the boards but he's a magic man where?  Yes, in front of the net.  If Bruno's office is behind the net then Smyth's is certainly in front of it.  Sakic?  Well if Smyth can take more shifts doing the dirty boxing on the boards then Sakic is free to do more skating in front of the net himself.  I can see no situation where that doesn't lead to better things for Sakic himself.  It made me sick to my stomach last year to watch Svaots and Wolski waiting for a pass in the crease while Sakic and Bruno battled along the boards.  Sakic's skill set, age, health and every other rationalization under the Sun requires that he be in the scoring areas of the ice.

Anyway, Bruno had awesome numbers last year and at first glance it may look like he's the beneficiary of Sakic's presence.  But to me, that's a very symbiotic relationship and Sakic relied as much on Bruno for such a great year as Bruno relied on Sakic.  Don't be surprised if Brunette has even better numbers.

by Dario on Aug 15, 2007 4:10 PM MDT reply actions  

Re: I disagree

You make an extremely compelling argument, and I must admit, I've been swayed a bit.  What I think we both recognize is that Ryan Smyth on a line with Joe Sakic is going to be freakin' magical, no matter what.

I hope you're right.  While I'm doubtful it will happen, it wouldn't upset me a bit if Bruno continued to put up huge numbers, especially if it means Sakic and Smyth do the same.

by Joe Dunman on Aug 15, 2007 8:24 PM MDT up reply actions  

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