Who Is To Blame?

by Joe Dunman on Aug 3, 2007 1:21 AM MDT in News Comment 10 comments

As everyone knows, goal-scoring is down in the NHL. Ever since the early 1990s, the ability of teams to score goals has been diminished considerably. Though up slightly after the lockout of 2004-05, the number of total goals scored is again on the decline.

The cause? Some would say the perfection of the neutral zone trap defensive style is to blame. Others would say a general increase in the size and skill of defensemen trumps other causes. Still others, including myself, contend that goal-scoring talent has been diluted by runaway expansion of the league to the current 30 teams.

One guy, however, places the blame squarely on the shoulders of just one man, and it's actually not Gary Bettman.

He blames Patrick Roy.

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Re: Who Is To Blame?

The writer makes a lot of good points in his post, and I happen to agree with the gist of his opinion. I might take exception to some of the goalies he listed as being dominant (or labelling Brodeur as a butterfly goalie), but on the whole, he has a solid point.

My only beef is his contention that the trap and more skill, speed, and size at the defensive position didn't play a role as equally damning for goal-scorers. Maybe not the trap persay, but the dominance of the defensive mindset, in my opinion, has been the main culprit in the decline of scoring. It's always been easier to coach defense than offense, and with expansion and rampent spending for a few teams in the late 80's and early 90's (including Colorado), teams without the budget or talent relied on defensive systems to remain competative.

Elite goaltending played it's part, and the wave of butterfly-heavy goalies revolutionalized the position, and should not be overlooked. However, I personally (since I'm a goalie) think that we aren't the problem, the lack of dominant offensive players and systems are the problem. No amount of tinkering with rules or equipment will make players shoot better, make better positions in the offensive end, or put more biscuits in the basket. Coaches and players have to decide that they want to take more risks and develop those skills for the goals-per-game to go up.

Mike @ BB&R

by Mike @ MHH on Aug 3, 2007 8:57 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Who Is To Blame?

You make some great points, but I think the "lack of dominant offensive players" is the key here. Coaches can only work with what they have, and when you've got teams like Florida, where they only have two players even capable of scoring 30 goals in a season (Nathan Horton, Olli Jokinen), and they play on different lines, there's just not much you can do.

Or, even worse, Edmonton, with only one decent goal-scorer (Ryan Smyth) and he gets traded away.

Now, contract one of those teams and stick its talented players on the other, and suddenly you have a group far more capable of putting the biscuit in the basket.

I'm convinced that over-expansion diluted the talent base too far, and that's the primary reason scoring is down. Sure, defensive play has increased, but only because it's far easier with so few offensive greats playing together.

by Joe Dunman on Aug 3, 2007 9:27 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Who Is To Blame?

I know this is a popular theory (the dilution of the league) but I personally don't buy into it, and here's why: The available pool for players in the NHL has never been bigger. With Europeans now a mainstay of every team, the rising quality of US players, and the continued player-factory in Canada, there are great talents available. You can make the argument that they aren't being developed correctly and thus diminishing the pool of players due to playing on crappy teams, but I don't believe that in the modern, global hockey era that there's just a shortage of good players.

My comments about lack of offensive superstars was intended to be more like evidence for my opinion that the defensive systems and coaching have squashed creativity and free-wheeling offense. Even the superstars like Sakic, Crosby, Jagr, and others understand the importance of the defensive systems and their responsibility within them. This over-zealous systemation has drained alot of the offensive talent out of the NHL, IMO.

I personally wouldn't mind contraction if it was done for the right reasons, but I don't see the league doing that since it would be an admission of error and a step backward to some.

I also wanted to remind you of a post over at the Forechecker where he analyzes the goal-scoring in the league, pre- and post-lockout. If memory serves, he concluded that the amount of even-strrength goal scoring is still up over pre-lockout numbers, but the number of PP goals came back to earth in the last season. That's why I have a hard time reading all the "Sky is Falling!" articles about the scoring 'drought' in the NHL. Scoring is up, PP scoring is falling, largely due to the fact that fewer penalties were called this year as opposed to the first season out of the lockout. Methinks rules enforcement is an issue, but that's a whole other can of worms...

Mike @ BB&R

by Mike @ MHH on Aug 3, 2007 12:49 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Who is to blame?

It's easy to say "the player pool has never been bigger," but it's a circular argument, in my opinion. Sure, lots more guys are now considered "NHL talent" because there are 30 rosters to fill and the teams have to find players somewhere.

For example, you have forwards like Mark Rycroft, Brooks Laich and Gilbert Brule playing in today's NHL where they never would have made it out of the minors in the 1980s. Sure, technically they are "NHL talent" because there's room for them, but contract the league to 24 teams and suddenly they no longer even get to try out.

This year's draft was another excellent example. Sure, Patrick Kane might be a superstar some day, maybe Angelo Esposito will score 40 goals. But outside of a handful of guys, there's nobody even close to being a star offensive player. And even those who do score a lot of goals will have to do it largely on their own, with maybe one or two other truly talented guys to help.

I just can't find any holes whatsoever in the logic that if you shrink the league the talent level and the goal scoring would increase considerably. The reason defense is so dominant is because it's far easier now. You don't have five amazing scoring forwards on a team to shut down, you have maybe one or two at the most.

I won't argue that the goalie talent hasn't increased considerably, or that defensive play isn't as dominant as everyone says. Both are true. But I think we overlook the fact that a smaller league by definition will have fewer roster spots, and therefore only the greatest talents would play in the league. And great talents playing alongside each other produce great results.

And as for goal-scoring as it is now, I know that more goals are being scored now than before the lockout, despite the fall in PP scoring last season. But it's still relatively low compared to the early 1990s and the 1980s---when there were fewer teams.

Wow, this got long-winded. My bad.

by Joe Dunman on Aug 3, 2007 1:56 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ehh,,,

Agree to disagree then.

You have some good points, but I think using this year's draft (which was considered extremely shallow by any standard) as an example might not hold water if next year's draft is as deep as foretold.

As for long-winded, you have nothing to worry about. My last reply was novel-esque. I really need to do my "blender of feces" post over at BBnR before I use up my words for this week.

Mike @ BB&R

by Mike @ MHH on Aug 3, 2007 3:55 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree with Mike

I agree with mike on this one, I think the talent in the NHL hasn't been better. Not only do you have a better player pool that you used to have, with International players gaining so much leverage in the league, but coaches and scouts have never been better at identifying and developing young raw talented players.

Also conditioning programs are light years ahead of where they were 20 years ago. Tired players leads to goals scored, but players get less tired these days because conditioning programs are so advanced.

John Buccigross also brought up a good point in some column of his that it used to be that many NHLers used to be below average at skating backwards especially forwards, now if you can't skate backwards you can't play in this league, making the average team defense automatically better.

Any longer and this becomes a diary post, or just a blog post

by Jibblescribbits on Aug 3, 2007 8:37 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

haha

That proves I'm right cuz Jibbles agrees with me!!

The only exception to his comment was that people who can't skate backward, can't play in the NHL. I submit for your consideration one Patrice Breeze-by. And he was a defenseman no less...

Mike @ BB&R

by Mike @ MHH on Aug 4, 2007 10:37 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

well...

umm he can't play in the NHL he's terrible

by Jibblescribbits on Aug 4, 2007 12:35 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know that,

and you know that, and most Montreal fans know that, but apparently nobody told Bob Gainey.

Mike @ BB&R

by Mike @ MHH on Aug 4, 2007 2:33 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: haha

Jibbles is only right when I say he's right.

As for Breezy, he came immediately to mind when I thought about NHL players who can't skate backwards.

Even the little kids in the original Mighty Ducks movie could skate backwards. I know because I watch that DVD at least once a week, along with Slap Shot and Mystery Alaska.

by Joe Dunman on Aug 4, 2007 4:52 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs