What's Working And What's Not: Avalanche Team Stats

by Joe Dunman on Nov 14, 2008 8:40 AM MST in News Comment 22 comments

The season is still quite young, and the Avalanche have only played 15 games to date. There's a lot of hockey left to play. But it's not too early to take a look at some team statistics and see how Colorado fares against the other teams in the league.

Short answer: Not very well.

Longer answer: Not very well, but it's not a lost cause, and some numbers show some promise.

Below I've listed a few statistical categories, the number for the Avs, and their ranking in the league. I've added some commentary here and there where I thought it was appropriate.

Point Percentage: .467 (22nd)

Because the number of games played varies so much between teams at this point in the season, ranking them by point percentage is better than by points. For example, Calgary has five more points in the standings than Colorado right now, but they're only three spots higher overall because they've played three more games and have a mediocre record of 9-8-1.

Goals Per Game: 2.60 (22nd)

Goals Against Per Game: 3.07 (19th)

Five-on-Five Goals For/Against Ratio: 0.76 (28th)

Obviously the Avs are giving up too many goals at even strength, and are no longer scoring very often to counterbalance those. The best team in the league in this stat, Boston, has a ratio of 1.83.

Power Play Percentage: 15.2 (23rd)

Penalty Kill Percentage: 79.6 (21st)

Special teams mediocrity is one of the most glaring problems facing the Avs so far this year. Minnesota, the club with the best overall special teams in the league, is ranked 4th overall in power play conversion (23.4%) and 1st overall in penalty killing (93.2%). Coach Granato needs to start taping Wild games.

Shots Per Game: 28.9 (18th)

Shots Against Per Game: 26.5 (3rd)

The Avalanche are not allowing a lot of shots, but the shots they allow are beating their goaltenders. Lots of second and third chances aren't being prevented by the defense. The last two games have seen a visible decline of quality shots allowed, but this trend must continue for the Avs to keep winning.

Winning Percentage When Scoring First: .750 (5th)

When the Avs score first, their chance of winning is high. Just to make us all feel better, the Chicago Blackhawks rank dead last in the league with a winning percentage of .429 when scoring first. That seems like vintage Coach Quenneville to me.

Winning Percentage When Trailing First: .364 (15th)

The Avs are in the dead center of the league on this stat, and their number isn't too shabby considering how bad some other teams in the league have been. The Columbus Blue Jackets have not come from behind to win a single game this season so far. The San Jose Sharks, on the other hand, have a better win percentage when trailing first (.875) than they do when scoring first (.700). But they've won all but four of their games, so that's probably not a great stat anyway.

Winning Percentage When Leading After The First Period: .667 (17th)

Winning Percentage When Leading After The Second Period: 1.000 (T1st)

I'd say the second stat is a nice change of pace from the Coach Q era. The Avs have blown a couple of late leads, of course, but they haven't lost in overtime and they aren't collapsing in the third period like they did so often the last couple of seasons.

Winning Percentage When Outshooting Opponents: .286 (29th)

Winning Percentage When Being Outshot By Opponents: .625 (7th)

Obviously the Avs aren't relying on sheer firepower to win games, at least not lately. And with the weak Avalanche defense/goaltending overall, opposing teams haven't had to, either.

Face Off Win Percentage: 52.3 (7th)

This is a freaking miracle. Not much else to say.

The Colorado Avalanche are a very mediocre team to this point, but there is a lot of potential there. The special teams must improve, but the faceoffs and their play in the third period are both very solid. They must give up fewer quality shots and second/third chances to net-crashing opponents. And, of course, they need to score more goals than they allow at even strength so their special teams weaknesses can't be exploited.

All easier said than done, of course.

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Comments

Again, let me be the first to tell you how much of a geek I am for stats; I love these sort of posts!
You’ve outdone yourself, if only the Avs could also play up to their potential.
You’ve forgotten one important stat though,

“Games won with Tyler "I’ve had some chances I haven’t put in” Arnason in the line-up.

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Nov 14, 2008 12:11 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Well, I think all but one of the seven games the Avs have won have been with him in the lineup. Of course, all eight of their losses have been with him in the lineup, too. I think the best stat is “Percentage of Games Won Without Tyler Arnason in the Lineup,” which is 1.000.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Nov 14, 2008 12:32 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

No, Not like the Wild, PLEASE!!!!!!!

Coach Granato needs to start taping Wild games.

But then he would fall asleep from the boredom so his time might be better spent with other types of coaching/prep activities.

Seriously, I cannot stand to watch the Wild. The most heinous thing about the heavily weighted intradivisional play the last several seasons was how many games we had to play the Wild (and the Flames, also zzzzzzz!!!!). I am a serious, die-hard Avs fan that paid through the nose for Center Ice the last 5+ years to watch every Avs game when I moved to the East Coast. As a hockey fan that loves the Avs, I would rather watch them lose more entertaining games than win playing the cheap-ass, boring-ass, suffocating, sport-ruining type of hockey that Lemaire started with the Devils in the East and then brought over to the “not-even-close-to-being” Wild in the West. Actually it was all those horribly boring intradivisional games against the Wild and the Flames last year that made me decide not to buy the Center Ice package this year. Now I watch heavily pixilated, sometimes laggy images on my computer screen (“hmm, that sort of looks like a puck over there…”), because I still love the Avs. God forbid they start playing like the Wild!!!!!

Usually I just cheerfully enjoy the Avs chatter. I guess I sort of feel passionate about this! :-)

by Pookie on Nov 14, 2008 12:35 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Look, I totally understand and agree with everything you wrote, but stats don’t lie. The Minnesota special teams are good and the Avs should emulate them. That’s all I’m saying.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Nov 14, 2008 12:47 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, I just have a knee-jerk reaction to anything regarding more like Wild style hockey.
I’m sure you just meant to give an off-hand compliment to the Wild’s effective special teams play. I certainly wasn’t criticizing anything you said! Yes, it would be way better for the Avs’ special teams stats to be more like the Wild’s. I would like to say that it’s possible to play a different style (than the Wild) and still have greatly improved special teams stats, but ugh, now I’m recalling that Lemaire had to use that system because it helped his Devils and Wild teams with mediocre talent win. Is this where the Avs are at now? :-(

by Pookie on Nov 14, 2008 1:26 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Nov 14, 2008 1:45 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Colorado Avalanche: Gellin' and Propellin'!!!

by Mike @ MHH on Nov 14, 2008 2:06 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

The Avs problem – goaltending. Budaj is inconsistent so your team goes out and sign super-inconsistent Andrew Raycroft?? Baffling moves to say the least…

by Sgtd on Nov 15, 2008 5:29 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Actually it's the defence

But I wouldn’t expect you to know that.

by eltharion_doa on Nov 15, 2008 5:34 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Let's play nice

Where a quick glance at the stats-sheets would suggest goaltending is the biggest issue for the Avs, we at MHH are fairly aware of the reason those save-percentages and GAA are so low and high respectively.
Colorado is quickly (since the start of this season) turning into a rather schizophrenic team. One week the offense is scoring about 5 goals per game and the next week they’re dead in the water.
The same goes for the defense to be honest.
Goaltending has been the most consistent so far this season, based on goalie qualities. Budaj is a good goalie who needs a strong defensive to remove his rebounds for him (every goalie does, but it’s Budaj’s Achilles-heal) and Rayzor is consistently disappointing.

The reason everyone is screaming our goaltending is so bad, is because Budaj has been in the back of some journalist’s doghouse for quite some time already and when the team started this season, all the journalists wanted to see him fail. So when he underperforms AD can write about how right he was by not trusting Budaj, where in fact he was wrong.

So although it seems like the Avalanche are looking rather bad right now, the potential to have a stanley cup winning offense, defense and goaltending is there, they’ve just never performed on the ice in the same game.

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Nov 15, 2008 7:44 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Stanley Cup winning...

Might be one step too far, in all honesty. But otherwise good post.

by eltharion_doa on Nov 15, 2008 4:33 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe

but they could definetly get to the WCF if everything clicked and they have some luck staying injury free.

"To have arrived on this Earth as a product of a biological accident, only to depart through human arrogance, would be the ultimate irony"
R. Leakey, Origins; 1977
"Two roads divurged in a wood, and I took the one less travelled by, and that has made all the difference"
R. Frost

by Savage33 on Nov 15, 2008 5:20 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, Goaltending

Uh, yeah. The AVs goaltending is inconsistent. I don’t think it is the sole reason for your woes (I like their forward group a lot) but Budaj & Raycroft are not the answer.
Nice of you to rip my comment when all I said was, “Avs problem – goaltending”. Why some people get worked up over a comment that isn’t personal is beyond me…

by Sgtd on Nov 15, 2008 8:27 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Avs have scored just one goal a game in three of their last four. They scored two tonight.
Both goals tonight were scored by guys who were left alone by the defense (a common problem this season).
Avs power play has scored just 2 times in 29 chances in their last 6 games.
The penalty kill has been terrible all season long.
Goal tending is not the biggest issue.

People here get worked up because time and time again others make the same blanket statements despite the facts to the contrary.

Now and then we had the hope that if we lived and were good, God would permit us to be PIRATES.
-Mark Twain-

by Americanario on Nov 15, 2008 11:40 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

You created a profile just to make a comment that would have been pertinent three months ago—-maybe? Don’t tempt the Ban Hammer.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Nov 15, 2008 2:03 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

So, the ban hammer must be out of the shop. I better mind my Ps and Qs from now on…

Red Wings Suck

by texacogirl on Nov 15, 2008 3:12 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Well at least your P’s…we got rid of Q.

Now and then we had the hope that if we lived and were good, God would permit us to be PIRATES.
-Mark Twain-

by Americanario on Nov 15, 2008 3:36 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

lol

Red Wings Suck

by texacogirl on Nov 15, 2008 4:03 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Do you mean me? I am just making an observation. Is that something to get ticked off about?

by Sgtd on Nov 15, 2008 8:28 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

It's mainly the fact

that any sane person can see that the defense has hung Boods out to dry so much this season that has caused his inconsistency. When teh D has played properly (Buffalo and the last two games) we’ve seen how consistent Boods can be when he gets some help. Plus the fact you made a new profile and your only posts have been criticizing Budaj can pretty easily be taken the wrong way.

by Savage33 on Nov 15, 2008 9:21 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh man I’m so angry, let me tell you. Steam is literally coming out of my ears right now.

Your “observation” is about three months old, and it’s been said about 1000 times before by 1000 different people. It contributes nothing to the conversation and offers no new insight or perspective on anything. If it had been a valuable observation instead of blatant trolling, I probably would have come across a little friendlier.

Instead, you’ll just have to act surprised that we didn’t all smack our foreheads in amazement that we didn’t think of your “observation” before.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Nov 16, 2008 12:54 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs