Armchair GM
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Dec 17, 2008 5:05 PM MST
in NHL News
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PrintTrade winds are blowing. On Friday, the NHL freezes all rosters until December 27th so that a bunch of millionaires don't have their holidays ruined by getting traded to Anaheim or something. Apparently, Mats Sundin is finally ready to make up his freaking mind and choose a team - likely Vancouver or the Rangers. If it's New York, the Rangers would need to clear out some dead weight cap space first, leading to speculation that there will be some trades going down shortly. Although I don't really pay that much attention to trade rumors - that stupid Eklund site can drop off the face of the internet tomorrow for all I care (e4) - I'm going to dip my big toe into the waters for a quick test.
Simply put, the Avalanche need help. In my opinion, they absolutely have to get another scorer. The 2nd line of Wolski, Arnason and Svatos is okay in a pinch, but it ain't cutting over the long haul. The Avs could also use a big shot from the blueline, but I can't see that help coming via trade - they'll just have to make do with what they have. But without that scorer up front, this team is going to continue to sputter.
Who do we go after? I'm not qualified to speculate, although I have a really hard time picturing Chris Drury being the guy. Who we get isn't really something I'm going to worry about, but who would we give up? I'm happy to discuss that. Here's how I would break down our roster in terms of who is available and who is not. Francois Giguere probably looks at the team differently, but let's not be too hard on him for that error in judgement.
Untouchables:
Stastny, Smyth, Sakic, Hejduk, Liles, Foote, Salei, Hannan, Budaj.
Many of these guys can't be traded anyway, but that's how I view the nucleus of the team as it stands right now. 4 forwards, 4 defenseman and a very good (and very underpaid) goaltender.
I'll Make A Deal, But It Will Cost You:
Wojtek Wolski. It would take a lot to get him from my team (hint: not Chris Drury). But he's there.
TJ Hensick. This may surprise you, but I feel that of the trifecta of young players on the roster (Hensick, Stewart and Jones), Hensick will be the best. Not this year, perhaps, but he's the one of the three I'd be least willing to part with.
Jordan Leopold. Leopold is on pace to score 13 goals, he hasn't missed a game due to injury all year, he's money on penalty shots, he's got a low cap number ($1.5 million) and he's a free agent next summer. I don't think the Avs will be able to re-sign him, and this means, despite their dearth of pp point men, Leopold would seem to be a prime candidate to be moved by the deadline. Fine, but you aren't getting him for free.
The Rest Is Fair Game.
That's right, fair game. Clark, Svatos, Tucker (please), Arnason (pretty please), Tjarnqvist, Raycroft, your pick of the Codys...there's something there for everyone. I'm not looking to clean house, but we need that scorer. We've got too many 4th line forwards (which we knew this summer) and we've got lots of capable defensemen. We can stand to lose a few. We need a guy who can put the puck into the net (the OTHER team's net, Mr. Hannan). And the sooner, the better.
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You are higher on Hensick than I am. I see the work ethic of Alex Tanguay with much less talent. The young guy that I still think may turn out to be something special is David Jones.
If they could somehow unload Tucker, Arnason and Clark that would be absolute addition by subtraction. I used to be a fan of Clark, but he’s not worth anything near what he’s being paid right now. I’d package Hensick in any of those deals just to get some value in return.
MHH: Shagging Dater one contributor at a time.
Just an observation but there seems to be camps forming around Hensick and Jones; those who think Hensick is the next up-and-coming player and those who think Jones is. Yet neither have been spectacular this season.
Red Wings Suck
Sweet
Can I be in both camps? I think I’m in the camp that believes Hensick/Jones/Stewart should all play on a line together because it would be fun. No other tangible reason other than seeing our future playing together in the present. Also, I think Hensick is going to have to bust his ass a little harder, but Jones needs to develop a finishing touch. In time, I think both guys will be really solid.
They call me Bubblegum.
by A.J. Haefele on Dec 17, 2008 9:13 PM MST up reply actions
I’ll number my notes so they’re easy for you to reference and flame me for!
1)I’d say Budaj is in no way untouchable. He’s not a bad goalie, but he’s not a great goalie. Finding another .903 SV% replacement would not be that difficult, although for his cap number, I like him…but he’s easily replaceable.
2) Ryan Smyth is also not untouchable. I think he’s a good player, but he’s a bit pricey for what he brings. I’m not looking to dump him, but I’d let him go in the right deal (ie, you can have him, but it will cost you).
3) Chris Drury…well I love this guy, but he’s a bit overpaid, IMO. We’d definitely have to lose Ryan Smyth’s salary in order to take on Drury…and that’s a deal I might be interested in.
4) I agree with unloading Tucker, Arnason…maybe not so much Clark. He’s been better than this season, for sure…but he still blocks a ton of shots.
The Angry Avalanche Nerd.
I think Budaj’s ‘untouchable’ in the sense that he’s a good goalie for his cap hit and he’s a team player so if we somehow, and big IF, got a better starting goalie we’d still have a competent back up. Obviously if we had a chance at getting Luongo or another top notch goalie then I’d be willing to part with Boods but there’s no point getting rid of him for someone of equal or marginally better skill.
The Savage - Game Thread Leader and King Of The World
"Two roads divurged in a wood, and I took the one less travelled by, and that has made all the difference"
R. Frost
1) I really hate to belabor this point, but using save percentage as an indicator that Budaj is low on talent and that he’d be easily replaceable (especially at his cap number) is ridiculous. Here are some other “.903 SV%” goalies (I’m using less than .906 and greater than .900 for a slightly larger range) and their respective cap hits:
Ilya Bryzgalov (.906) 4.25M
Evgeni Nabokov (.906) 5.375M
Dan Ellis (.903) 1.75M
Chris Mason (.903) 3M
Miikka Kiprusoff (.900) 5.833M
Martin Biron (.900) 3.5M
Peter Budaj (.899) .7M
For what he’s paid and for how lousy the team in front of him is, the Avs should be counting their blessings they have a goalie as good as Peter Budaj.
Go Avs! Let's get some goals!
Yikes
I agree, but when the season started, I never thought I’d be saying it. It’s been a strange couple of months.
by JonHaven on Dec 18, 2008 9:51 AM MST up reply actions
When is Budaj's contract up?
Looking at these numbers is a little scary…
That’s because there is a clear delineation of “haves” and “have-nots” when it comes to goaltending. Sure, Brodeur is still around, but once he hangs ‘em up, the only truly ’elite’ goalie with the championship pedigree that will be left in the league is Giggy. The dirty Italian in Vancouver is a rare talent, but he’s wasted a career to this point on some pretty bad, and pretty mediocre teams. I mean seriously, look at the goaltending in this league right now:
Price – young and good, but so far, that’s all he has to his credit in the NHL.
Toskola – good, but not elite, and now on a horrible team
Bruins – tandem-ing Thomas and Fernandez, neither of which have a track record of greatness, and are both older than most people think.
Ottowa doesn’t have a goalie, neither does Edmonton or LA.
Legace was a good goalie on some great teams, but he’s not elite anymore, and Mason hasn’t impressed in the last 18 months or so.
Chicago – Khabby and Huet – one’s great, one’s good, nobody seems to know which on is which at this point, but they’re both paid like they’re great.
Columbus seems to like LeClaire and Mason equally. I don’t see that being a good thing for either.
Kipper – close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.
Osgood sucks.
Ellis is wearing “Flash-in-the-pan” undies right now.
Smith – too good to be on a team that bad.
Vokoun – I think he’s elite, but he hasn’t won anything, and probably won’t
King Henrick – elite and young, but still nothing to show for it.
TheRick – good, but horrible team, and that contract will expire before the Isles challenge anybody
Miller – good, but hasn’t exactly carried the Sabres to anything the last two years
Biron – Miller-lite
MAF – talented, but injuries are a problem, as is the cap with the team he plays for.
Lehtonen – Finnish for “knee injury” I think.
Theo – used to be the heir, but now is getting outplayed by his backup. Again.
Bryz – Talent, nothing to show for it
Backstrom – another well-above-average netminder that hasn’t rewarded the franchise’s faith
Ward – 2006 was a long time ago…
Turco – ehh, it’s Turco
Nabby – skills, but they entire franchise are choke artists to this point in history.
There is some potential in some of those names, and good track records in others, but nobody is hands-down, carry-a-franchise-to-the-championship, face-of-the-franchise once Brodeur is gone, IMO.
Colorado Avalanche: Gellin' and Propellin'!!!
That is quite a rundown and I’m with your assessments. Also, Legace is still a communist and Osgood is an overated fairy.
I think a large part of it has to do with the rules changes and such. Brodeur is awesome, no question, but the Devils are the only team in the NHL playing that godawful to watch defensive system (with the exception of Minnesota who plays it often, but not always and without the amazing goalie). If you put Luongo on the Devils, I think you’d see very similar numbers to Brodeur… whether he could be money deep in the playoffs is another topic entirely. They (the Devils) are making Kevin Weeks and that other shlub whose name escapes me at the moment look amazing right now.
There are a bunch of dudes out there who can get the job done, but none who can do it on their own. There was a lot of talk on boards before this season about wanting the Avs to try to get Miller (though he was never going to leave Buffalo anyway), but I think he is the perfect example of the upper tier of goalies today. He will make a couple great stops on odd man rushes and on the PK to keep the team in the game, but it is the team who still has to earn the wins. Getting outshot and winning 1-0 or 2-1 just isn’t a formula for success anymore (thank christ).
by JonHaven on Dec 18, 2008 1:28 PM MST up reply actions
I agree totally. My point was that if Budaj is as good a goaltender we all want him to be, the Avs will have to pony up at some point. So to me all the talk about keeping Budaj around because of his cap number is moot in the medium- to long-run. I, for one, am still not sold on him. Yes, he’s won some games this year, but he’s also lost us a few…
I haven’t run the regressions, but I have a feeling that the thing that would correlate most highly with salary is not just save percentage or GAA, but rather something more like consistency, e.g. the variance of save percentage or GAA per game. And I’m guessing that by this metric, Budaj is not at the top of the list.
Yeah
Boods has had some bad games, but our defense has abandoned him a lot, leaving guys in the slot unopposed, losing their man and giving up 2 on 1’s. We’ve seen how good he can be if the Defense helps him out but ours is so inconsistent that no-one jknows who’ll show up till halway through the first. If the D played as well for Budaj as they do Raycroft this season could be completly different. The offense hasn’t helpd out either.
The Savage - Game Thread Leader and King Of The World
"Two roads divurged in a wood, and I took the one less travelled by, and that has made all the difference"
R. Frost
Too many untoucheables.
I believe the Avs are a very mediocre team, and this is why I we should try and trade veterans that will get us youth.I like him a lot, but Smyth could be one of those guys. Hannan could. Clark could. I’m with you on Svatos. He defenitely has the skill, but there always seems to be something missing with him. I think Wolski is a keeper, but I’m defenitely not sold on Hensick.
As for Budaj, he’s alright, and I think he still has time to develop, but he isn’t anything special.
Just a reminder here…Smyth does have a ‘no-movement’ clause in his contract…Doesn’t make it impossible to move him, but harder.
I think we need to keep Wolski also. I personally think the reason we only signed him to a 2yr was so he’d be a RFA after next season and we’d have all the options of keeping him.
Svatos is a good player, but he seems to be in it for the money…filed for arbitration two straight season now, and will be RFA after next season. I think he’ll be gone then if not sooner. Not to mention his consistency only on being injured every season.
I’m not sure Hannan is untouchable, he had good moments, but is not the player we hoped he’d be. Of course he also has a ‘no movement clause’.
I like Clark, but would be willing to part with him for the right guy.
I see both Hensiick and Jones as becoming something worth keeping, Stewart on the other hand is another version of the Cody’s or a Guite style player. We have a number of those guys and none of them are that old. We could part with one or two of them easily.
I'm The Canary - but I'm not cute nor cuddly, and I don't sing.
Now and then we had the hope that if we lived and were good, God would permit us to be PIRATES.
-Mark Twain-
Stewart
Is looking like he could be really awesome. He’s big, fast, and has a crazy shot. He could become the premiere power forward in the game…in a few years.
He looks great. No way I’d part with him just yet.
The Angry Avalanche Nerd.
Hannan
I didn’t even notice Hannan in the untouchables list. He certainly is not. I’d trade Hannan for nearly any D-man in the league at his salary. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not a bad Defenseman, he’s just nothing special. He’s almost to defense what Arnason is to offense. He’s a decent guy, but way overpaid.
The Angry Avalanche Nerd.
Hannan’s got a NTC or NMC i think, Thats probably why he’s ‘untouchable’
The Savage - Game Thread Leader and King Of The World
"Two roads divurged in a wood, and I took the one less travelled by, and that has made all the difference"
R. Frost
NMC, and that’s a significant part of the reason. I also think he’s more valuable than people think.
The artist formerly known as Draft Dodger
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Dec 17, 2008 7:02 PM MST up reply actions
Perhaps he is, but for the most part, he’s invisible out there. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing for a defenseman, but for a $4mil guy, he should have a presence that people notice.
The Angry Avalanche Nerd.
again, I’d argue that invisible for a defensemen is not a terrible thing
The artist formerly known as Draft Dodger
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Dec 18, 2008 7:36 AM MST up reply actions
Yep. Defensemen who don’t do their jobs are more noticeable than those who do.
Go Avs! Let's get some goals!
Agree, but maybe not defenseman who make his salary. You notice Rob Blake, Adam Foote, PhaDouche, etc. I can’t think of many guys who make Hannan money that don’t get noticed.
by JonHaven on Dec 18, 2008 9:49 AM MST up reply actions
Agree…you either notice a defenseman because he isn’t doing his job, or because he’s making his pressence known. Rob Blake has ahd the big point shot and the big hip check that gets him noticed. Phadouche has a point shot, and his douchey play to get noticed (not that you want the douchey play). Hannan was supposed to be big physical presence, that we thought was going to replace Blake…he hasn’t done that.
Better invisible than noticed for screwing up, but still not what we expected…..
I'm The Canary - but I'm not cute nor cuddly, and I don't sing.
Now and then we had the hope that if we lived and were good, God would permit us to be PIRATES.
-Mark Twain-
by Americanario on Dec 18, 2008 11:00 AM MST up reply actions
Yeah. There are some really solid, but quiet guys that you don’t notice like Rob Scuderi of Pittsburgh or Teppo Numinen of Buffalo. Both are guys I’d want on my team, but neither makes what Scott Hannan does.
by JonHaven on Dec 18, 2008 11:20 AM MST up reply actions
I agree. But as I’ve said before, I happen to love the Hobbit, so that’s not surprising.
When hell freezes over, I'll play hockey there too!
by BeachNSnowGirl on Dec 18, 2008 12:01 AM MST up reply actions
You didn't notice Hannan on the list?
I guess his presence online is the same as it is on the ice.
They call me Bubblegum.
by A.J. Haefele on Dec 17, 2008 9:10 PM MST up reply actions
Re: Hannan
He’s almost to defense what Arnason is to offense.
That is ridiculous. If a defense man isn’t always noticed, it generally means he’s doing his job well. If an offensive guy isn’t noticed, it means he should be replaced.
D shouldn’t be looking for the pretty play if, by doing so, they take risks.
D are noticed when they’re out of position, not when they’re where they should be
26 Card Jet
I concur, Lappy should be untouchable!
I'm The Canary - but I'm not cute nor cuddly, and I don't sing.
Now and then we had the hope that if we lived and were good, God would permit us to be PIRATES.
-Mark Twain-
by Americanario on Dec 17, 2008 10:14 PM MST up reply actions
Abso-effing-lutely
Lappy is untouchable.
When hell freezes over, I'll play hockey there too!
by BeachNSnowGirl on Dec 18, 2008 12:02 AM MST up reply actions
Guys with either NTC or NMC
Smyth – NMC
Sakic – NTC
Hannan – NMC
Liles – Limited Trade Clause
Hejduk – NTC
Foote – NTC
I'm The Canary - but I'm not cute nor cuddly, and I don't sing.
Now and then we had the hope that if we lived and were good, God would permit us to be PIRATES.
-Mark Twain-
What’s difference between a No Trade Clause and a No Movement Clause?
And does anyone know what the details of Liles’ clause are?
Bite thy tongue
If you’re suggesting Liles should be traded away.
When hell freezes over, I'll play hockey there too!
by BeachNSnowGirl on Dec 18, 2008 12:03 AM MST up reply actions
I'm probably confused
Remember, I’m a defenseman, but I think the difference is in a NMC you can’t be sent to the minors, placed on waivers, etc….
I blame it all on my goalie
Yeah, thats my understanding. NTC’s cant be traded but can be placed on waivers and sent to the minors. NMC’s can’t be traded or sent to the minors.
The Savage - Game Thread Leader and King Of The World
"Two roads divurged in a wood, and I took the one less travelled by, and that has made all the difference"
R. Frost
I believe Liles clause means that he can be traded, but that he has final say over where he goes.
I'm The Canary - but I'm not cute nor cuddly, and I don't sing.
Now and then we had the hope that if we lived and were good, God would permit us to be PIRATES.
-Mark Twain-
by Americanario on Dec 18, 2008 8:02 AM MST up reply actions
A few of my choices
I’d make Hensick available. He seems to me to be too much pass and not enough score, which is what we need. I think one of the jones/stewart duo could be made available, pref stewie, because I think jones is closer and all he needs is the proverbial mcnabbian lucky bounces to start going his way. (at least if he keeps playing the way he has the last few games) Sorry guys, we’re stuck with arny. Nobody else wants him, so…. I like clark, but I’d trade him. I like leo, but he’s gonna walk so I’d trade him too. Svats….. hmmm, svats…. I like his finishing touch but the arbitration is a good point; if he’s gonna go sooner or later then it might as well be for something.
So some random thoughts, but my issue is this- Where is this team going? If we are going for the cup, a few changes here and there are not enough. this is an 8th seed team, if we’re lucky maybe 6th. If we are going to rebuild lets trade the people who we can for picks, give the young guys some time, and suck it up for a year. I’ve said this before, but I don’t want to root for the colorado maple leafs. Mediocrity sucks, and these guys have spoiled me for a long time. I don’t want the alternative, which is the middle of the road “bettman’s parity”. The only reason a lot of teams are in the mix right now is loser points, and come playoffs the real teams show why those teams can only hack it in the regular season.
The point being, FG find some fracking direction and go with it, because this wishy washy shite ain’t cutting it. I see no real chemistry with this team, which is probably the biggest single reason they can’t compete night in and out. The talent is there, the motivation/desire/hunger/leadership/clue/whatever, isn’t.
On the plus side, we beat Detroit. So the season is a Win.
I blame it all on my goalie
I'm surprised that you included Salei on the Untouchable list
I’m not saying I’d give him away for nothing, but I’d certainly listen to trades that involved him. He is the kind of guy I’d love to have in a second or third D pair for a team ready to make a deep cup run, but sadly I don’t think the Avs are there this year nor are they likely to be there next year. If you take the assumption that we are looking at a two year rebuilding (and I would LOVE to be wrong), is a 34 year old defenseman really untouchable?
Face the future...
Unless we get something awesome in return, I do not think that we can trade away the youngins (Hensick/Stewart/Jones).
We are too far away from being a team that can afford to lose young talent. All three are still pretty young and have major upside.
The problem with the team is that all of the 4th line forwards are clogging roster spots for the talent to grow.
As an armchair GM you have to ask yourself what is more improtant, long term or short term?
I aggree that we need top line scoring help. Here is my proposal (im my dreamland): Clark+Tucker+Arny+picks
GO AVS
he’s money on penalty shots
Didn’t we have a BIG discussion about sample size at the start of this season?
26 Card Jet
hmmm
The sarcasm detector must be a little off today. I am sure DD was joking.
I believe in Peter Budaj
by Jibblescribbits on Dec 18, 2008 11:30 AM MST up reply actions
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