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Less Hitting?

Last week, something happened during the Pheonix game that had me put my thinking cap on. I don't think it made it into the highlight reel, but at some point in the game Kurt Sauer rubbed out an Avalanche forward with a pretty big hit along the sideboards (probably David Jones - he always seems to be the recipient of those kinds of hits).

It got me thinking of a long-held theory of mine: that players - defensemen - don't hit as often when they play for the Avs. My theory was that guys with a reputation as being solid bangers with other teams (Sauer and Ossi Vaananen were the examples I used to use) ended up losing a bit deal of physicality after they were traded to the Avalanche, probably due to a different approach to defense by the Avs' coaching staff (read: Jacques Cloutier).

After watching the Sauer hit, I decided it was time to see if my theory was correct. So, I compiled the stats for all the defensemen who have played for the Avs since the lockout - from the start of 2005 through games played last Friday - both with the Avs and with the teams they played either before or after playing in Denver. I excluded Brett Clark, John-Michael Liles, Bob Boughner and Kyle Cumiskey, as all four have only played for Colorado during that time frame (honestly, I just forgot to include Boughner, but that excuse is still valid). I also didn't include Johnny Boychuk, as he's only played in 5 NHL games.

That leaves 12 defensemen who, in the last 3 1/2 seasons, have played for the Avalanche and at least one other team (including Ken Klee, who has played for FIVE teams besides the Avalanche in that time frame).

Name

Team

GP

Hits

Hits/G

Increase

 

Team

GP

Hits

Hits/G

Tjarnqvist

Col

11

7

0.64

0.33

Edm & Min

97

30

0.31

Hannan

Col

115

75

0.65

0.10

SJ

160

88

0.55

Blake

Col

81

108

1.33

0.07

LA & SJ

177

223

1.26

Klee

Col

81

107

1.32

0.03

5 Teams

172

222

1.29

Salei

Col

49

93

1.90

0.00

Fla & Ana

225

426

1.89

Brisebois

Col

113

77

0.68

-0.04

Mon

72

52

0.72

Leopold

Col

92

70

0.76

-0.06

Cal

74

61

0.82

Foote

Col

44

68

1.55

-0.11

CBJ

187

309

1.65

Skrastins

Col

193

95

0.49

-0.17

Fla

48

32

0.67

Sauer

Col

139

112

0.81

-0.37

Pho

35

41

1.17

Finger

Col

94

147

1.56

-0.77

Tor

27

63

2.33

Vaananen

Col

127

141

1.11

-0.82

Phi

27

52

1.93

1139

1100

0.97

-0.26

1301

1599

1.23

Only four players - Klee, Rob Blake, Scott Hannan (surprised?) and Daniel Tjarnqvist - have a higher hits per game rate in an Avalanche uniform. Tjarmin probably should not have been included, since he only has 11 games in an Avalanche uniform. And both Klee and Blake are getting up there in years so their hits per game rate is falling anyway. For all intents and purposes, the only guy who is hitting more often with the Avs than on another team is Scott Hannan. Meanwhile, guys like Karlis Skrastins, Sauer and especially Jeff Finger and Vaananen are hitting with much higher frequency so far with their new teams.

As you can see from the table, Avalanche defensemen on the whole lose about one hit every 4 games with the Avs. That doesn't sound like a ton, but that's a shade over 21 less hits per year. Multiply that by six (the number of defensemen in each game) and you get about 130 hits less than these guys could make under another system. As a frame of reference, the Avs blueliners combined for 653 hits last year.

Now, we all now hits are not a perfect stat - what constitutes a hit can vary from rink to rink. But I think we can safely say that the Avalanche defensive system does not result in as many hits as other systems. The big question: is this necessarily a bad thing? There's more to playing defense than just hitting, and I can see the argument that focusing on hitting might tend to get players out of position, causing a detriment to other parts of the game. Personally, I'd like to see our defensemen punish opposing teams a bit more. Certainly, it's something we know they are capable of.

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Improved D?

Dec 2007 by David Driscoll-Carignan - 9 comments

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I would like to see a comparison of Foote’s hits before he went to CBJ, in CBJ, and now back with the Avs. I know in all that time he has gotten older but I wonder if his stats dropped off in CBJ.

Red Wings Suck

by texacogirl on Dec 30, 2008 8:44 PM MST reply actions  

unfortunately, NHL.com only has stats for hits going back to 2005 so we don’t have any way to see that.

Foote Col 2008 32 53 1.66
Foote Col 2007 12 15 1.25
Foote CBJ 2007 63 133 2.11
Foote CBJ 2006 59 78 1.32
Foote CBJ 2005 65 98 1.51

Hyphens cause writers more trouble than any other form of punctuation, except perhaps commas.

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Dec 30, 2008 9:02 PM MST up reply actions  

Well from what I can see, Foote had a 1.97 hits per game average last season versus 1.32 and 1.51, respectively in previous two seasons with CBJ. Maybe his hit total went up (i.e. more aggressive Foote-like play) for his contract year. Seeing his hit total so far this year for the Avs, maybe he has woken up and started his game a bit more; if he keeps it up. Lame on NHL.com though.

Red Wings Suck

by texacogirl on Dec 30, 2008 10:14 PM MST up reply actions  

Too bad that is all they had. Foote would probably be the best case study as he was an Av, then he wasn’t, now he his.

by InYoFace on Dec 30, 2008 11:25 PM MST up reply actions  

I didn’t know Foote had more hits than Blake. Blake always represented ‘hard hits and hard shots’ for me.

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Dec 31, 2008 6:42 AM MST up reply actions  

I always felt Blake was a selective hitter – he could really lay a guy out, especially with that devastating hip check, but didn’t hit as often as he could.

Hyphens cause writers more trouble than any other form of punctuation, except perhaps commas.

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Dec 31, 2008 7:23 AM MST up reply actions  

You would think as he ages, Blake’s ass would just keep getting bigger, resulting in more devastating and more frequent hip checks.

Defying the laws of aging; here’s to you, Robert Blake!

by JonHaven on Dec 31, 2008 8:39 AM MST up reply actions  

Wonder

I wonder if it has anything to do with the official scorer at the Pepsi center at all? He may be more stingy with the “Hit” statistic than others.

A way to check this would be to check away teams hits/game vs their average, and check away teams in general vs the league average (or even better western conference teams’ hits/game)

I believe in Peter Budaj

by Jibblescribbits on Dec 30, 2008 8:51 PM MST reply actions  

I think I remember seeing at hockeyanalysis.com that the Avs have, in general, lower hit totals so yes, that is definitely a factor. Is it the only factor? No freaking clue.

Hyphens cause writers more trouble than any other form of punctuation, except perhaps commas.

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Dec 30, 2008 9:04 PM MST up reply actions  

Ice time would have an effect on the hits as well I’d think. If they have more ice time at one team it stands to reason that they would have more hits.

The Savage - Game Thread Leader and King Of The World

"Two roads divurged in a wood, and I took the one less travelled by, and that has made all the difference"
R. Frost

by Savage33 on Dec 30, 2008 9:22 PM MST reply actions  

Yes

I think hits/20min played would be a little better indicator

I believe in Peter Budaj

by Jibblescribbits on Dec 30, 2008 10:15 PM MST up reply actions  

I agree, but most of the interesting players on this list (Klee, Foote, Blake) have seen big, and about equal ice time.
All this makes Salei’s 1.90 even more impressive.

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Dec 31, 2008 6:44 AM MST up reply actions  

Salei, btw, was the one who had the wildest swings – his trend seems to be lots of hits in his first year with a team, and then a big drop off the next year.

Salei Col 2008 32 53 1.66
Salei Col 2007 17 40 2.35
Salei Fla 2007 65 122 1.88
Salei Fla 2006 82 192 2.34
Salei Ana 2005 78 112 1.44

I’ve said before that the Salei we saw last year is the best we’re going to see of him in an Avalanche uniform, and these numbers would seem to reinforce that.

Hyphens cause writers more trouble than any other form of punctuation, except perhaps commas.

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Dec 31, 2008 7:21 AM MST up reply actions  

I’ve said before that the Salei we saw last year is the best we’re going to see of him in an Avalanche uniform, and these numbers would seem to reinforce that.

Agree totally. He hasn’t been half the player yet this season that he was at the end of last year. Not to say he’s been awful, but he was looking like a pretty badass pickup last April.

by JonHaven on Dec 31, 2008 8:38 AM MST up reply actions  

He was such a beast against Minnesota during the play-offs.

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Dec 31, 2008 10:13 AM MST up reply actions  

He was such a beast against Minnesota Wolski during the play-offs.

There, fixed it for you.

by Dario on Dec 31, 2008 12:31 PM MST up reply actions  

Good stuff, DDC. I always thought the Avs were somehow detrimental to hitting too, ever since they brought over my favorite Penguin at the time Darius Kasparaitis. It added significant shelf life to my otherwise obsolete jersey. Only problem was, he sucked pretty hard in an Avs jersey… and pretty much every year after that. I think he was the only player that was affected by the hip checking is illegal now rule they started awhile back. At least he had an excuse, I guess.

by JonHaven on Dec 31, 2008 8:36 AM MST reply actions  

yeah, Kaspar is another good example

Hyphens cause writers more trouble than any other form of punctuation, except perhaps commas.

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Dec 31, 2008 8:42 AM MST up reply actions  

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