Avs' Future Through the Draft?
by Mike @ MHH on Jun 10, 2008 9:32 AM MDT
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PrintSince the lockout ended and the new CBA was handed down written in blood on the dried skin from Bob Goodenow's carcass, the party line for developing a championship team has been drafting well . The second caveat of that strategy seemed to be trying to draft as many guys who were ready to play ‘right now’. This saves money toward the cap, and generates excitement when fans can see guys that likely will be long-time contributors to the team. Setting aside the 06 and 07 draft classes in this evaluation, nobody but Wojtek Wolski came out of his class (drafted in 04, played in 05-06) and nobody but Paul Stastny (drafted in 05, played in 06-07) has come out of his class to contribute to the Avs within a year of drafting. Remember, Baron von Stastinheim was the 2nd round pick that year! Hell, nobody but Wolly has come out of that class to contribute at all. Blame it on draft position (the Avalanche didn’t have a pick higher than 14th in any draft since the lockout), blame it on shallow talent pools, blame it on something, but the truth remains, the Avs haven’t generated an immediate impact player via the draft since Stastny, and that seemed to stem more from dumb luck than anything.
Well, that’s the history, here’s the future: no first round pick for the Colorado Avalanche this year. It went to
Maybe I’m just being paranoid, but with the lack of a draft pick this year, given the current CBA environment, I’m worried about the Avs' long-term outlook. Some of that outlook looks possibly OK, especially at forward, but they’ve been notoriously shaky at picking decent defensemen, and they don’t have the best track record with spotting goalies either. No Toskala and Kiprusoff’s in the Avs' draft history. Still, I think I’m justified in my worry. Am I wrong?
UPDATE: Fixed the Foote stuff.
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Clarification
Well, that’s the history, here’s the future: no first round pick for the Colorado Avalanche this year. It went to Columbus in the Adam Foote deal (assuming he signs). Nobody else has joined Wolski from his draft class with the big club yet, and nobody from SOS’s class has shown up for the big time yet either.
The Avs lost the 1st rounder no matter what. They lose an additional 4th rounder if Foote signs
"A witty saying proves nothing."
- Voltaire (1694-1778)
by Jibblescribbits on Jun 10, 2008 10:08 AM MDT reply actions
I think the deal was if they sign Foote they lose their first rounder this year. If they don’t sign him, they lose their first rounder next year. They gave up the 4th this year regardless. Iirc.
A 1st and a 4th, either way, was very steep for Foote at this point in his career. And I love Foote.
by Bob in Boulder on Jun 10, 2008 10:34 AM MDT up reply actions
Nope
1st rounder this year if the Avs made the playoffs (they did). 1st rounder next season if they didn’t make the playoffs
4th rounder if they resign him.
"A witty saying proves nothing."
- Voltaire (1694-1778)
by Jibblescribbits on Jun 10, 2008 11:13 AM MDT up reply actions
I forgot about the make the playoffs stipulation. So that is why they know the first rounder this year is toast. Thanks for the clarification. I think I have CRS. Well, he is definitely worth re-signing for a 4th rounder. If they are trying to sign Finger, Sauer is almost definitely gone, no?
by Bob in Boulder on Jun 10, 2008 11:19 AM MDT up reply actions
Sauer
I would think he’s going to be the odd man out if they are trying to get Finger back.
"A witty saying proves nothing."
- Voltaire (1694-1778)
by Jibblescribbits on Jun 10, 2008 11:20 AM MDT up reply actions
The Avs seem more intent on signing Sauer than Liles, looks like JML’s the odd man out
http://blogs.denverpost.com/avs/2008/06/10/a-chat-with-mike-myers-and-some-avs-updatespredictions/
I think you've hit on the head.
I’m scared about the future of this team. That little reunion tour the FG pulled off at the deadline last year will continue to hurt our team. Though, I think Hensick and Stewart may be ready to make the jump.
Makes me sad though, I’m getting season tickets for the Chicago Wolves this next year, and I wanted to see them play the Monsters.
Oh well.
i see...
a lot of OMG AVS SUCK AT DRAFTING THE SKY IS FALLING posts. A lot of times players just take a while to develop, and yes, sometimes the draft is just a crap shoot. Still, I’m pretty sure that we’re doing fine when looking at the list of draftees with the team:
Budaj - 2nd ‘01
Finger - 8th ‘99
Foote - 2nd ‘89
Forsberg - 1st ‘91 (ok, technically it was the flyers)
Hejduk - 4th ‘94
Hensick - 3rd ‘05
Jones - 9th(!!!) ‘03
Liles - 5th ‘00
McCormick - 5th ‘01
McLeod - undrafted
Parker - 1st ‘98 (lol)
Richardson - 5th ‘03
Sakic - 1st ‘87
Sauer - 3rd ‘00
Stastny - 2nd ‘05
Stewart - 1st ‘06
Svatos - 7th ‘01
Weiman - 5th ‘02
Wolski—1st ‘04
that’s 19 of 30 players I think are “with the team” in some fashion. I would think that’s a pretty good number, and there’s a lot of big time players in there. ‘04 does seem to be an absent draft, but hey, you win some, you lose some.
Exactly.
I don’t think the Avs did crappy on defense, draftwise (Liles, Cumisky, Shattenkirk, Sauer, Finger)
Also, it is very hard, if not impossible, to see how a player will develop when drafted with the draft-age being so low.
Apart from the obvious 1st selections it’s not always likely their current performances are an indication of how much they’ll grow as a player.
26 Card Jet
Agree with Doc
The Avs do fine drafting. Their first round is a little lax, but Drafts are set up for a majority of picks to fail. Every team drafts 7 players every season, which means you could build a full team every 4 years. But then you have players like Sakic, Smyth, and Brunette (and loads others, god hockey players are selfish) selfishly holding on and playing for more than 4 years then draft failures will happen.
I think the Avs draft fine, other than their lack of success with Euro players. In the US collegiate system in particular I think the Avs are head and shoulders above most other teams.
"A witty saying proves nothing."
- Voltaire (1694-1778)
by Jibblescribbits on Jun 10, 2008 11:19 AM MDT up reply actions
You make a good point about draftees being on the team, but I was speaking specifically of ‘impact’ players that can improve the team quickly after the draft. This is a newer phenomenon in the current CBA. Get ‘em out of the gate sooner, and you get more use out of them while they’re cheap. My point was, that seems to be a valid stategy for several teams, but the Avs haven’t approached it that way.
My other point about drafts in particular made reference to the fact that they seem to pick forwards just fine, but there isn’t a blue-chip defenseman in the Av’s draft history that they’ve actually kept and developed. No goalies either. Now Shattenkirk and Billy Sauer may prove me wrong in time, but as of 2008, no stud blueliners (Liles is above average, but when he was drafted, he wasn’t a prototypical NHL defensemen. He was the antithesis) and now goalies of the future (unless we count Boots).
San Jose Draft History
I love the fact I know hardly any of the Sharks draft picks. Makes me feel the avs are that much better.
Ignorance is Bliss
26 Card Jet
I think the Avs do a better than average job of drafting in the NHL.
The problem was that prior to the lockout, Lacroix used the prospect system as a pure commodity for establishing better NHL talent rather than a petree dish for developing NHL talent. I think the issue is that none of those trades injected the team with new core veteran talent outside of the Bourque deal. The Bourque deal was worth the rental of course but even Bourque couldn’t be considered a intricate core player for the future.
PL has said in the past (and I agree with this 100%) that you have to identify your core players and then everything else is just complimentary players to make that work. His core (pre-CBA mind you) was Roy, Sakic, Forsberg and Foote. Everyone else was expendable. Young NHL players, prospects and draft picks were jettisoned to do it.
The current core of the team is Stastny, Smyth and Hannan. Those are your long-term guys with bigger contracts going forward (Statsny is an assumption of course). Sakic is now on a year to year basis. Foote is probably on a 3 year retirement schedule.
To me you need to establish your starting goaltender, unfortunately for the Avs there is no one in the goalie pipeline that is the clearly established #1 prospect. That’s a big problem the Avs need to address in the draft or through trades. It would be worth trading assets to establish that position in the prospect pool. I’d love to see the Avs trade with Phoenix for Montoya. Phoenix has scary goaltending depth with Ilya Bryzgalov, Mikael Tellqvist, Al Montoya and Josh Tordjman. I like how the rest of the pipeline is set up already with Galardi, Mercier, Hensick, Jones and Stewart in the near future. For the defense you’ve got to wait 2 to 3 years on Shattenkirk and Cohen. However, if Foote and Finger sign you got probably another 3 years from both of them. We are stuck with Hannan until the year 2060 as well. There’s a good chance that Nigel Williams will be ready to get a NHL taste late this year or next also.
I think a lot of people are in a panic of drafting. All I’ve read is that the Avs need to go out and draft a Swede like right now. They have to trade up and draft in the first round no less! I know that Detroit seems like the perfect storm of Euro talent but their top guys aren’t even top draft picks! The Avs should follow their strengths with North American picks in the first few rounds and then give Euro scouting some picks in later rounds. If they can find some gems then you take a chance on higher picks in the future. The Avs put a lot of faith in Euro scouting with Jonas Johannson and it was a complete waste. I like the position the Avs are in. The coaching and goaltending need consistency and I think the team will be in a much better position next year.
Well Said
The Avs farm system is in a better position then it was five years ago.
by Angélique C. Murray on Jun 10, 2008 4:56 PM MDT up reply actions
According to AvalancheDB:
The Colorado Avalanche have signed 29 year old Per Ledin of the Swedish Elitserien. The deal is believed to be a one-year, one-way, $600,000 contract.
"The difference between a successful person and others,
is not a lack of strength,not a lack of knowledge, but rather in a lack of will."
-Vince Lombardi-
Hlinka wasn’t that bad, made worse by Q. Given the right opportunity and a chance to actually learn the NHL system, Hlinka might have been alright. I’m still looking for info about Per Ledin. He does seem a little old though…
"The difference between a successful person and others,
is not a lack of strength,not a lack of knowledge, but rather in a lack of will."
-Vince Lombardi-
by Americanario on Jun 12, 2008 11:52 AM MDT up reply actions
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