Offseason Diagnosis: 2008 Predictions

by thedoctor on Jun 12, 2008 9:15 AM MDT Comment 39 comments

[promoted to the front page - Joe]

Well, we're about a week away from the "actual" start of the offseason move period, the draft, and I'm bored. Because I'm bored in the absence of hockey, and as I anticipate we'll start hearing about UFA re-signings and retirement decisions before then, this seems like a good time to start this discussion / game. On each of the below decisions, what do you think will happen?

Go ahead and put your predictions on these issues in the comments, and I'll put my predictions in this post. Just to add a little spice to this competition, if you beat me, there will be a prize (yes, a real one TBD by your distance to CO) for the person with the most points. If I win, Joe has to fly out to an Avs game in CO and buy me a beer*.

Assuming people actually respond to this, I'll keep all the standings in the comments after decisions come down the pike. The more trash talk and/or discussion of each other's choices, the better.

(My guesses in parens. If a question depends on another response, obviously the dependent guess is null and void for the competition. On numerical responses, it's the closest. Each right/closest answer gets a point. Ties all get a point.)

UFAs

Joe Sakic's return: (yes)
Joe Sakic's cap number: ($5m)

John-Michael Liles' return: (no)
John-Michael Liles' eventual team [if he moves]: (Carolina)
John-Michael Liles' cap number [wherever he ends up]: (4.5m)

Andrew Brunette's return: (no)
Andrew Brunette's cap number [wherever he ends up]: (2.5m)

Jose Theodore's return: (yes)
Jose Theodore's cap number [wherever he ends up]: (4m)
Length of contract: (3 years)

Adam Foote's return: (yes)
Adam Foote's cap number [wherever he ends up]: (4m)

Peter Forsberg's return: (yes)
Peter Forsberg's cap number [this means prorated]: (2m)
Peter Forsberg's return date: (Feb. 1)

Jeff Finger's return: (yes)
Jeff Finger's cap number [wherever he ends up]: (1.5m)

Kurt Sauer's return: (yes)
Kurt Sauer's cap number [wherever he ends up]: (1.5m)

Scott Parker's return: (no)

Tyler Arnason's return: (yes. :( )

RFAs

Wojtek Wolski's cap number: (2.5m)
Length of contract: (3 years)

Marek Svatos' cap number: (2m)
Length of contract: (1 year)

Will they make the team on opening day? [Scratches count]

TJ Hensick: (yes)
David Jones: (yes)
Brad Richardson: (yes)
Kyle Cumiskey: (no)
Cody McCormick: (yes)
Cody McLeod: (yes)
Johnny Boychuk: (no)
Chris Stewart: (no)
Nigel Williams: (no)
Tyler Weiman: (no)

Position Battles on opening day

Third Line Center: (Tyler Arnason *sigh*)
Starting Goaltender: (Jose Theodore)

Tiebreaker

Avs overall cap number on opening day: (51.5m)

* Maybe. If he wants to.

MileHighHockey.com is a fan community, allowing members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Colorado Avalanche and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editors of MileHighHockey.com.

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This is great

I promoted this bad boy to the front page because it’s great.

Also, I plan on catching at least one game in Denver this coming season, and if every MHH member who lives in Denver doesn’t make it their sole purpose in life to either 1) go to the game with me, or at least 2) hang out with me before or after, I will be extremely disappointed.

And Doc, consider yourself the future recipient of a free beer.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Jun 12, 2008 10:39 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

only if i win!

and i will most definitely be there. you better not be a creepy internet person.

now where’s your predictions?

by thedoctor on Jun 12, 2008 10:45 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey

I’m working on them.

I don’t know if I qualify as an “internet person” but I’m definitely creepy. Ladies…

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Jun 12, 2008 10:47 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Being in your mum's basement and all

And put on some trousers!!!

(I know it’s old, but I hate studying SO MUCH)

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Jun 12, 2008 11:33 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I live in the South/Midwest US. Because of all the tornadoes, I’m now living in my mom’s storm shelter.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Jun 12, 2008 11:45 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great, more homework.

I’ll try to get to this tonight after pick-up.

by Mike @ MHH on Jun 12, 2008 12:19 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who said school was out?

"The difference between a successful person and others,
is not a lack of strength,not a lack of knowledge, but rather in a lack of will."
-Vince Lombardi-

by Americanario on Jun 12, 2008 12:23 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

at least mine is fairly brainless...

i hurt my brain trying to rank all those players against each other. and i forgot ozo in the process. :(

by thedoctor on Jun 12, 2008 12:57 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

last rule:

if something comes down the pike before you make your prediction, you don’t get points for repeating what actually happened.

example: Jeff Finger gets signed tommorrow for 3 years at 1 million a year.

Jibble gets back from vacation 2 days later, and posts his predictions, and includes yes to Jeff Finger at 1 million a year.

he gets no points for either correct “prediction,” because they were too late to be predictions. so be quick, get em in!

by thedoctor on Jun 12, 2008 10:51 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Mine

UFAs

Joe Sakic’s return: (yes)
Joe Sakic’s cap number: ($4.5m)

John-Michael Liles’ return: (yes) I think he’ll be back, but I’m an optimist.
John-Michael Liles’ eventual team [if he moves]: (Buffalo)
John-Michael Liles’ cap number [wherever he ends up]: (4.5m) I actually agree with this one.

Andrew Brunette’s return: (no)
Andrew Brunette’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (3.5m)

Jose Theodore’s return: (yes)
Jose Theodore’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (4m)
Length of contract: (2 years) I really don’t see the Avs or anyone else locking down Theodore for longer than two years.

Adam Foote’s return: (yes)
Adam Foote’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (4m) I think you’re dead on.

Peter Forsberg’s return: (no) way in hell.
Peter Forsberg’s cap number [this means prorated]: (n/a)
Peter Forsberg’s return date: (Not gonna happen)

Jeff Finger’s return: (yes)
Jeff Finger’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (1.75m) Never underestimate the power of teams to overpay.

Kurt Sauer’s return: (yes)
Kurt Sauer’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (3m) See above about overpaying.

Scott Parker’s return: (no)

Tyler Arnason’s return: (yes. :( ) There isn’t an emoticon that expresses my frustration adequately.

RFAs

Wojtek Wolski’s cap number: (3m) A little higher.
Length of contract: (4 years) A little longer.

Marek Svatos’ cap number: (2.5m) I’m tweaking his numbers up, too.
Length of contract: (2 years)

Will they make the team on opening day? [Scratches count]

TJ Hensick: (yes)
David Jones: (yes)
Brad Richardson: (no)
Kyle Cumiskey: (yes)
Cody McCormick: (yes)
Cody McLeod: (no)
Johnny Boychuk: (no)
Chris Stewart: (no)
Nigel Williams: (no)
Tyler Weiman: (no)

Position Battles on opening day

Third Line Center: (Tyler Arnason sigh)
Starting Goaltender: (Jose Theodore) If he’s re-signed, I really don’t think this will be a battle.

Tiebreaker

Avs overall cap number on opening day: (53.5m) Assuming the cap is set to $55m or higher. Let’s go for broke.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Jun 12, 2008 10:58 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

3m for Sauer? no way.

you’re probably right on the longer RFA signings, but I still don’t have a good feel for how the Avs will handle RFAs in the new CBA.

And it looks as though Richie may be in trouble for making the Avs again with this new signing from Sweden—it appears to be a one-way contract. Probably a scratch on opening day, but I would guess he’ll push Richie to the A. :(

by thedoctor on Jun 12, 2008 11:07 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

DD's wrong answers:

UFAs

Joe Sakic’s return: (yes)
Joe Sakic’s cap number: ($4M)

John-Michael Liles’ return: (no)
John-Michael Liles’ eventual team [if he moves]: (LA)
John-Michael Liles’ cap number [wherever he ends up]: (5m)

Andrew Brunette’s return: (no)
Andrew Brunette’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (3.5m)

Jose Theodore’s return: (no)
Jose Theodore’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (4m)
Length of contract: (3 years) someone will. I don’t think it will be us.

Adam Foote’s return: (yes)
Adam Foote’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (4m)

Peter Forsberg’s return: (yes)
Peter Forsberg’s cap number [this means prorated]: ($4m)
Peter Forsberg’s return date: (Oct 1) (I’m an optimist)

Jeff Finger’s return: (yes)
Jeff Finger’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (1.9m)

Kurt Sauer’s return: (no)
Kurt Sauer’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (2.1m)

Scott Parker’s return: (no)

Tyler Arnason’s return: (yes)

RFAs

Wojtek Wolski’s cap number: (4 m)
Length of contract: (4 years)

Marek Svatos’ cap number: (3.5 m)
Length of contract: (2 year) (and people go crazy over it)

Will they make the team on opening day? [Scratches count]

TJ Hensick: (yes)
David Jones: (yes)
Brad Richardson: (yes)
Kyle Cumiskey: (yes)
Cody McCormick: (no)
Cody McLeod: (yes)
Johnny Boychuk: (no)
Chris Stewart: (no)
Nigel Williams: (no)
Tyler Weiman: (yes)

Position Battles on opening day

Third Line Center: (Tyler Arnason)
Starting Goaltender: (Peter Budaj) (just a funny feeling)

Tiebreaker

Avs overall cap number on opening day: (52.7m)

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jun 12, 2008 11:12 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

so you think they’ll pass on Theo, huh? I certainly wouldn’t be opposed to it—cheap quality goaltending > expensive quality goaltending.

also, 3.5 a year for svatos/ 4 for wolski is crazy. especially considering hejduk’s contract. you got nothing, punk.

by thedoctor on Jun 12, 2008 1:00 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t know if it’s a matter of the them passing as it is him realizing that he can get some serious cake in free agency.

and I really don’t have clue on Wolski / Svatos.

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jun 12, 2008 1:09 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

(I clicked too soon).

My thinking on both is that a contract they sign that takes them beyond their UFA date will increase their value. All NHL players not named Leopold seem to do this. Of course, I have absolutely NO clue when they’d actually reach UFA, but I think Svatos is close. So that’s sort of where my totally made up shit is coming from.

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jun 12, 2008 1:13 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

wolski is like 3-5 years out, svats is after this year or next, I’m pretty sure. leopold was an odd case—I thought it was cool though. He seemed to want to make up for his injury woes. If he ever gets healthy I hope it earns him goodwill with FG and we re-sign him.

hey, we’re all making shit up. yours just sucks more.

by thedoctor on Jun 12, 2008 1:16 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

GasClass is priceless

I think Leopold really showed how to prove your loyalty to the team.
If the Avs ever low-ball him, I’d be disappointed in my favourite organisation

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Jun 12, 2008 1:22 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gas was supposed to be < strike></ strike>

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Jun 12, 2008 1:22 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tom's 2 cents worth

UFAs

Joe Sakic’s return: (yes)
Joe Sakic’s cap number: ($5.0m)

John-Michael Liles’ return: (no) I think they SHOULD get him back though
John-Michael Liles’ eventual team [if he moves]: (Tampa Bay) Although with the Boyle contract…
John-Michael Liles’ cap number [wherever he ends up]: (3.5m) Remember his slow start this year, anyone?

Andrew Brunette’s return: (no)
Andrew Brunette’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (3.0m)

Jose Theodore’s return: (yes)
Jose Theodore’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (4.0m)
Length of contract: (1 year)

Adam Foote’s return: (yes)
Adam Foote’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (4.0m)

Peter Forsberg’s return: (yes)
Peter Forsberg’s cap number [this means prorated]: (5.0m)
Peter Forsberg’s return date: (opening day)

Jeff Finger’s return: (yes)
Jeff Finger’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (1m)

Kurt Sauer’s return: (yes)
Kurt Sauer’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (1.5m)

Scott Parker’s return: (no)

Tyler Arnason’s return: (yes) His contract is only up next year, right??? But he won’t be resigned after that

RFAs

Wojtek Wolski’s cap number: (2.5m) on his first year.
Length of contract: (3 years)

Marek Svatos’ cap number: (2.0m)
Length of contract: (2 years)

Will they make the team on opening day? [Scratches count]

TJ Hensick: (no)
David Jones: (yes)
Brad Richardson: (yes)
Kyle Cumiskey: (no)
Cody McCormick: (yes)
Cody McLeod: (no)
Johnny Boychuk: (no)
Chris Stewart: (no)
Nigel Williams: (no)
Tyler Weiman: (no)

Position Battles on opening day

Third Line Center: (Mr. “I couldn’t find the back of the net if god would set me up” Arnason)
Starting Goaltender: (Jose Theodore)

Tiebreaker

Avs overall cap number on opening day: (54m) How would I know?

They’d be wise to blow all the cap space on Liles, Bruno, Sakic, Forsberg and Foote. The rest is can be spent on bringing Drury back and entry-level contracts (xD)

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Jun 12, 2008 11:52 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

you are correct about Arny, and I knew he wasn’t a UFA. had to put him somewhere, based on the draft day trade requests I hear.

by thedoctor on Jun 12, 2008 1:04 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

UFAs

Joe Sakic’s return: (yes)
Joe Sakic’s cap number: ($5m)

John-Michael Liles’ return: (no)
John-Michael Liles’ eventual team [if he moves]: (Buffalo)
John-Michael Liles’ cap number [wherever he ends up]: (5m)

Andrew Brunette’s return: (no)
Andrew Brunette’s cap number [wherever he ends up (Wild)]: (2m)

Jose Theodore’s return: (yes)
Jose Theodore’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (4.5m)
Length of contract: (2 years)

Adam Foote’s return: (yes)
Adam Foote’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (4m)

Peter Forsberg’s return: (yes)
Peter Forsberg’s cap number [this means prorated]: (2.5m)
Peter Forsberg’s return date: (Starts opening day – plays a month – then out until Jan)

Jeff Finger’s return: (yes)
Jeff Finger’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (1.5m)

Kurt Sauer’s return: (yes)
Kurt Sauer’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (2.5m)

Scott Parker’s return: (no)

Tyler Arnason’s return: (yes – unfortunately)

RFAs

Wojtek Wolski’s cap number: (2.5m)
Length of contract: (5 years)

Marek Svatos’ cap number: (2m)
Length of contract: (2 year)

Will they make the team on opening day? [Scratches count]

TJ Hensick: (yes)
David Jones: (yes)
Brad Richardson: (yes)
Kyle Cumiskey: (no)
Cody McCormick: (yes)
Cody McLeod: (no)
Johnny Boychuk: (no)
Chris Stewart: (no)
Nigel Williams: (no)
Tyler Weiman: (no)
Per Liden: (yes)

Position Battles on opening day

Third Line Center: (Tyler Arnason – unfortunately in agreement)
Starting Goaltender: (Jose Theodore)

Tiebreaker

Avs overall cap number on opening day: (52.2m)

"The difference between a successful person and others,
is not a lack of strength,not a lack of knowledge, but rather in a lack of will."
-Vince Lombardi-

by Americanario on Jun 12, 2008 12:11 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Do you think Sauer is worth more than Finger?

I’m also pretty certain Bruno and the Wild are a match, which makes me hurt even more.
Bruno hasn’t made up YET for that goal against Roy, even though he (was) working on it.

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Jun 12, 2008 12:24 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, but that doesn’t mean he won’t sign for more…you never know

"The difference between a successful person and others,
is not a lack of strength,not a lack of knowledge, but rather in a lack of will."
-Vince Lombardi-

by Americanario on Jun 12, 2008 12:47 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I should have added my thinking

I agree with much of what others are saying about face time for Sauer.

But I also think that the fact that the Avs haven’t traded him yet shows something. Remember he hasn’t played more than 50 games a season due to being in that doghouse that Q had set up. When he finally did get play time he showed and played well without bitching about it. I think the Avs might feel they “owe” him something for his classiness and that could show up in the way of a higher signing. But I’m just thinking out loud….

"The difference between a successful person and others,
is not a lack of strength,not a lack of knowledge, but rather in a lack of will."
-Vince Lombardi-

by Americanario on Jun 12, 2008 1:40 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sauer

he’s had a lot more exposure than Finger in the NHL, he’s bigger than Finger (even though he doesn’t use it), and Finger hasn’t been in the league nearly as long. the league probably considers Sauer a safer bet, thus he probably gets more money.

Plus, Sauer is a better pure defender than Finger, imo—he’s faster, better positionally, and doesn’t get caught play-watching nearly as much as Finger. Finger brings better offense, better hitting, and more passion, but that’s about it.

From the sounds of things I think we’re getting both back anyways (they seem to want Cumiskey in the A, which I agree with—he needs development time), so we can continue to debate this next year too. :)

by thedoctor on Jun 12, 2008 1:08 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that Sauer has better visibility and will get a bit more than Finger. if it was my money, I’d take Finger, but I think Sauer will get a little more

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jun 12, 2008 1:11 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you might have a point there, but I personally feel Finger is the better player out of the 2.
I don’t know if Sauer is faster than Finger, but he probably has better stamina.
I think if Finger does some stamina training this summer, he won’t be caught play watching anymore and he’ll be a solid blue liner on any team.

Sauer’s game doesn’t really look like it’s improving, does it?

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Jun 12, 2008 1:18 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unless the Avs make some serious changes to their training staff, Finger won’t have better stamina next season.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Jun 12, 2008 1:23 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ouch

Another hit with the sledgehammer called reality…
There’s always the hope Finger will go berserk on himself this summer holiday, training like crazy

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Jun 12, 2008 1:34 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Indeed, one would hope.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Jun 12, 2008 1:43 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I took some chances in mine.

I bid $1 Bob, er.. Drew, er…Doc.

UFAs

Joe Sakic’s return: (yes)
Joe Sakic’s cap number: ($5.5m)

John-Michael Liles’ return: (no)
John-Michael Liles’ eventual team [if he moves]: (Columbus)
John-Michael Liles’ cap number [wherever he ends up]: (5m)

Andrew Brunette’s return: (no)
Andrew Brunette’s eventual team [if he moves]: (Vancouver)
Andrew Brunette’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (2.5m)

Jose Theodore’s return: (no)
Jose Theodore’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (5m)
Length of contract: (3 years)

Adam Foote’s return: (yes)
Adam Foote’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (3.5m)
Length of contract: (3 years)

Peter Forsberg’s return: (yes).
Peter Forsberg’s cap number [this means prorated]: (6 total, 2 m prorated)
Peter Forsberg’s return date: (Jan 1st or whenever the Avs startup after the trade freeze deadline)

Jeff Finger’s return: (yes)
Jeff Finger’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (1.5)

Kurt Sauer’s return: (no)
Kurt Sauer’s eventual team [if he moves]: (Minny)
Kurt Sauer’s cap number [wherever he ends up]: (2.25m)

Scott Parker’s return: (no)

Tyler Arnason’s return: yes. He’s under contract and who can predict trades. I think he’ll either be traded while doing some AHL time or treadmill healthy scratch time.

RFAs

Wojtek Wolski’s cap number: (3.5m)
Length of contract: (5 years).

Marek Svatos’ cap number: (3.5m).
Length of contract: (3 years)

Will they make the team on opening day? [Scratches count]

TJ Hensick: (yes)
David Jones: (yes)
Brad Richardson: (yes)
Kyle Cumiskey: (yes)
Cody McCormick: (no)
Cody McLeod: (no)
Johnny Boychuk: (no)
Chris Stewart: (no)
Nigel Williams: (no)
Tyler Weiman: (no)
Liden: (yes)
Galardi: (yes)
Jason Bacashihua (yes)

Position Battles on opening day

Third Line Center: (Richardson)
Starting Goaltender: (Peter Budaj)

Easier for me to make a lineup:
Smyth Sakic Wolski
Svatos Stastny Hejduk
Jones Richardson Galardi
Lappy Guite Liden

Foote Hannan
Clark Salei
Finger Leopold

Budaj
Bacashihua

Tiebreaker:

Avs overall cap number on opening day: (?? no idea). If there’s enough money by letting Liles go I think the Avs make a strong run for Rolston and that leaves Galardi back in Lake Erie.

by Dario on Jun 12, 2008 1:59 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Forsberg

He wouldn’t do that again, would he? If he did, he’d be even worse than Selanne and Niedermeyer!
They ought to call that “a foppa” then.

I don’t think he’ll do that though, cus it’ll be too much of a stain on his perfect NHL career.

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Jun 12, 2008 2:05 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

He'd do it.

If it meant he could rest his body I think he’d do it in a heartbeat. He’s done it before. Hell, he’s come back just for the playoffs and absolutely killed it. I hope he does it personally.

by Dario on Jun 12, 2008 2:17 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I remember that. Even though the Avs lost to the hated wheel in the 2002 WCFs, Forsberg came back only for the playoffs and led the league in playoff scoring. He was a fricken monster during that playoff season. Then he won the Hart the following year. Without a spleen.

by Bob in Boulder on Jun 12, 2008 3:21 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think

he’d sign a contract just to come back for the playoffs. If he does sign he’ll try and play all year and if he isn’t healthy he won’t sign, at least not with the Avs.

by Savage33 on Jun 13, 2008 3:15 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ouch

Not one of us successfully predicted that Scott Parker would return to the team.

And I guess all of our predictions that Richie would make the team were a bit off, too.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Jun 25, 2008 1:36 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

i should make an update post...

maybe tomm

by thedoctor on Jun 25, 2008 5:15 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well Richardson could still make the opening day roster….it never actually specified which team…

"The difference between a successful person and others,
is not a lack of strength,not a lack of knowledge, but rather in a lack of will."
-Vince Lombardi-

by Americanario on Jun 25, 2008 5:44 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs