Fun with Frei
Terry Frei's latest 'article' on Sakic and his timeline for re-upping or retiring is now littering the intrawebs. I'm still seeing red over this one. It doesn't make any sense. He uses shady math and jumps to more conclusions than American intelligence experts looking for WMD's.
Here's some of the gem's from this article:
If Joe Sakic retires, the Avalanche would have a modest payroll.
The team also would be fortunate to win 25 games next season.
And Denver fans would be introduced to small-market hockey.
Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight. Because missing Joe Sakic for a huge chunk of last season resulted in a winless streak of unparalleled proportions. (I'm rolling my eyes, can you hear it?)
I think the most damning things I can say about those statements are comments from Greg Ballentine and George James Malik, respectively, over at Red Wings-centric Kukla's Korner:
Apparently market size (which I thought was largely population dependent) is actually driven by the presence or absence of Joe Sakic.
Or maybe when most people talk about market size they really have no clue what they are talking about.
I don’t buy that. Even as a Wings fan, the Avs have a solid base of talent, and without Sakic, they’re still a 7/8/9th-place finisher.
You heard it here first: RW fans think Frei is clueless.
The reality is that the absence of Joe Sakic from this rebuilding team won't make or break the season. It won't damage the franchise beyond repair, especially when Son of Stastny is in-line to be the face of the franchise moving forward. Fan-favorite Foote is back, there will be constant rumors of Forsberg riding in like the cavalry, and they've still got Stastny, Wolski, Svatos, Smyth, Tucker, and Hejduk to fill seats. I think that in the absence of anything to write about, Frei just likes to spew panic-filled garbage.
I also don't know where Frei is coming up with a $3 million dollar contract for Svatos. How does an injury-prone forward with no set-up abilities get more money than Wolski through arbitration? We've all figured in the $2-2.5 million range.
Also, he states:
The remainder of the roster is no sure thing, but if it also includes Scott Parker, David Jones, T.J. Hensick, Kyle Cumiskey and McLeod, all under contract; and the still-unsigned Cody McCormick, that would be about another $4 million for 2008-09.
From nhlnumbers.com, the sum of Parker, Jones, Hensiiiick, Cumiskey, and McLeod ($522 k per DD's post) is $2.77 million, using averages for cap hit. Are the Avs really going to pay McCormick $1.23 million when he spent most of the year in the A last season? Again, bad math or more sky-is-falling crap? You can guess what I think.
The only real insight in the article is the little tidbits related to the Nuggets' luxury-tax impact on the Av's bottom line. Why doesn't he chase that down and give us something real to talk about instead of opining the death of the team and fanbase? Why, because that would be called journalism. Something all to absent in MSM these days.
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Garbage filled garbage
Thank you for posting something on this article. I read it this morning (GMT+1) and couldn’t believe my eyes. I couldn’t directly start writing about it, because I was still too shocked. I honestly quite like Dater’s articles, but I think Frei fell one too many times when he was still a baby. Having flawed math is deadly for someone who has a profession which supposedly is “objective”. But flawed logic should have your ass flying on the curb faster than my grandma finishes her first glass of wine in the morning.
I hope a numberjunkie like DD or Mirtle goes to town on this article (see how well the Avs did with and without Sakic last year, attendance with/without Sakic, etc.)
I’d do it, but I have no stats about the Avs.
26 Card Jet
by Tommelot on
Jul 15, 2008 8:23 AM MDT
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And at any rate, Joe Sakic is going to retire this year or next. Steve Yzerman retired, and the Red Wings didn’t fall apart because they had young talent waiting in the wings (so to speak) and a solid fan base. The Avs have a solid fan base (though frustrated by inflated ticket prices and a decline in notable names) and young talent. Why the Avs would suddenly find themselves in the same sorry situation as the Florida Panthers is beyond me.
I have a serious man-crush on Joe Sakic just like everybody, but I’m not going to get all doom-and-gloom at the prospect that he’s retiring.
Go Avs! Let's get some goals!
by Joe @ MHH on
Jul 15, 2008 8:52 AM MDT
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This will change your mind about getting gloomy he’s retiring:
I already miss him, and he’s not even officially gone yet!
26 Card Jet
by Tommelot on
Jul 15, 2008 9:30 AM MDT
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That figure makes him look a lot like Tarzan, from the Disney movie. I wonder if he’ll beat his chest when he scores?
"The difference between a successful person and others,
is not a lack of strength,not a lack of knowledge, but rather in a lack of will."
-Vince Lombardi-
by Americanario on
Jul 15, 2008 11:16 AM MDT
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The only thing going for that figure is that it’s not in a unipron.
by Mike @ MHH on
Jul 15, 2008 11:17 AM MDT
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That figure has eyebrows you could set your watch to.
I'm sorry, Mr. Hossa, but I'm afraid we can't be friends anymore. Why? Because I hate you.
by JDunman on
Jul 15, 2008 11:57 AM MDT
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Denver is NOT A SMALL SPORTS MARKET, PERIOD!
Sorry to yell, but this whole argument drives me nuts. The Rocks’ owners took a great thing and ran it into the ground while hiding behind a bogus “we are a small market” excuse. After Denver set every major league baseball attendance record imaginable during their first several years here. Denver is not a big market in terms of our population, but it is just flat out sports crazy. And any good owner in town knows that if you spend money to put a good product on the ice/court/field, it will pay off, big time. Which is why I will be hellipissed if Silent Stan does go cheap on us with the Avs to bankroll the Nugs’ luxury tax.
MHH: Shagging Dater one contributor at a time.
by Bob in Boulder on
Jul 15, 2008 9:51 AM MDT
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Frei
I thought Frei actually brought up some good points, but they were the exact same points Joe and I brought up (and Wyshynski highlighted). The only thing new he said was:
a) the Avs will win only 25 games without Sakic (and even us blogging off-season pessimists think this is a bit much)
b) The Nuggets utter mismanagement is affecting the Avs. I had heard that rumor on message boards and whatnot, but I chose not to say anything about it because it was just a rumor. Now that it’s in print I can bash the Nuggets right?
"A witty saying proves nothing."
- Voltaire (1694-1778)
by Jibblescribbits on
Jul 15, 2008 10:34 AM MDT
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Now that it’s in print I can bash the Nuggets right?
That was the only thing stopping you? Where’s all this restraint coming from?
by Mike @ MHH on
Jul 15, 2008 11:16 AM MDT
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Where’s all this restraint coming from?
Interest
"A witty saying proves nothing."
- Voltaire (1694-1778)
by Jibblescribbits on
Jul 15, 2008 1:25 PM MDT
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Whoops
Supposed to say:
LAck of interest in the nuggets
"A witty saying proves nothing."
- Voltaire (1694-1778)
by Jibblescribbits on
Jul 15, 2008 1:26 PM MDT
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Lesson
Don’t try to make jokes with a Salei-esque black eye and a concussion
"A witty saying proves nothing."
- Voltaire (1694-1778)
by Jibblescribbits on
Jul 15, 2008 1:28 PM MDT
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Uh, should I even ask what happened?
Go Avs! Let's get some goals!
by Joe @ MHH on
Jul 15, 2008 2:00 PM MDT
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Soccer
Sunday Soccer. I went up to head the ball out of my own penalty area, and a member of the opposing team got there a split second later trying to head the ball into the goal. He missed the ball, but got just above my temple…
"A witty saying proves nothing."
- Voltaire (1694-1778)
by Jibblescribbits on
Jul 15, 2008 2:53 PM MDT
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Were you playing against Steve Ott? If you were, punch him in the kidneys for me.
InYoFace Hasek! InYoFace
by InYoFace on
Jul 15, 2008 3:54 PM MDT
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Well
The guy and his teammates insisted it was a clean play despite all evidence to the contrary
"A witty saying proves nothing."
- Voltaire (1694-1778)
by Jibblescribbits on
Jul 15, 2008 4:01 PM MDT
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I certainly hope you rolled around on the ground for five minutes and made them take you off the field in a stretcher.
Go Avs! Let's get some goals!
by Joe @ MHH on
Jul 16, 2008 6:50 AM MDT
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You won’t have any street cred unless you did. I also think that looks more like Rocky Horror eyeshadow than a bruise. I’ll take your word for it this time.
by Mike @ MHH on
Jul 16, 2008 8:18 AM MDT
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Such a deep, majestic shade of purple.
Go Avs! Let's get some goals!
by Joe @ MHH on
Jul 16, 2008 9:46 AM MDT
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I wonder whose girlfriend he is trying to be?
MHH: Shagging Dater one contributor at a time.
by Bob in Boulder on
Jul 16, 2008 9:52 AM MDT
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Party
I really went to a costume party as “Mimi” from the Drew Carey show.
"A witty saying proves nothing."
- Voltaire (1694-1778)
by Jibblescribbits on
Jul 16, 2008 10:57 AM MDT
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Canasta Monday’s much be a bitch in your ‘hood, huh?
by Mike @ MHH on
Jul 15, 2008 2:33 PM MDT
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a couple of things
I’m a little confused about the McLeod contract. I said in my post that $522,500 (the contract the RMN reported) was McLeod’s QO. But I was mixing up the Cody’s. I believe McLeod’s QO was $539,000 and McCormick’s was $522,500. So either we got the QO wrong (should have been 110% of last year’s salary), or the new contract was reported wrong.
nhlnumbers is still not showing Per Ledin’s contract ($600,000). with Ledin and assuming $3 mill for Svatos (and yeah, that sounds too high), the Avs are at 47.9. actually a little less, because that would be 24 players so someone wouldn’t make the team.
that’s more or less what Frei is saying. If the Avs add Sakic at 6.75, they’d be about 2 million under the cap, dependent on who else that would bump from the roster. so, his $$$ numbers are generally right, even if the win prediction is a tad pessimistic…
by David Driscoll-Carignan on
Jul 15, 2008 12:21 PM MDT
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or the new contract was reported wrong.
or, perhaps the Avs actually signed McCormick…
by David Driscoll-Carignan on
Jul 15, 2008 12:21 PM MDT
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“Aww crap, your Cody Who’s agent?”
InYoFace Hasek! InYoFace
by InYoFace on
Jul 15, 2008 12:29 PM MDT
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Must be the same guy who signed Finger over at the Leafs….
"The difference between a successful person and others,
is not a lack of strength,not a lack of knowledge, but rather in a lack of will."
-Vince Lombardi-
by Americanario on
Jul 15, 2008 12:33 PM MDT
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I don’t know, the Avs are always so upfront and open about their contract signings…
Go Avs! Let's get some goals!
by Joe @ MHH on
Jul 15, 2008 12:30 PM MDT
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we just did
Avs re-signed Cody McCormack, and it looks like we’re bringing back Brian Willsie too.
by jd21 on
Jul 15, 2008 4:12 PM MDT
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Willsie!
Whoopee, another lump of coal during this free agent period delivered by Santa FG.
MHH: Shagging Dater one contributor at a time.
by Bob in Boulder on
Jul 15, 2008 4:32 PM MDT
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msm accountability
For people who like to talk smack about bloggers there seems to be little of what they harp on, accountability. I mean seriously, bernie lincicome still has a job? How? And i quit reading frei a long time ago because I couldn’t read an article without hearing about the thuggery and violence that is hockey fighting blah blah blah. But to the point- frei does not allow comments on his blog. Methinks he got a little tired of hearing how full of it he was. And if you are not accountable to your readers, well, whats the point? I’d rather come here or itcs or daters blog (minus the colonoscopy report, ugh) or jibblescribbbits and actually engage in a hockey DISCUSSION rather than read some generic sounding crap that seems like it could have come from the mouth of the avs organ-i-zation itself. And no I’m not trying to be anyones girlfriend!
by TheRed on
Jul 15, 2008 12:41 PM MDT
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You can be my girlfriend if you change your mind.
Go Avs! Let's get some goals!
by Joe @ MHH on
Jul 15, 2008 2:01 PM MDT
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Hmm, actually just went and read the article, and there are comments on it. I could’ve sworn I saw that he didn’t allow them. Of course that was 6 months ago when I quit bothering with him. Well, maybe i’m full of it as well….. or he changed.
by TheRed on
Jul 15, 2008 12:47 PM MDT
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I don’t think he has a choice in blocking out comments on his articles. He still doesn’t allow comments on his blog, which is just weird. Isn’t that what blogging is about?
MHH: Shagging Dater one contributor at a time.
by Bob in Boulder on
Jul 15, 2008 1:08 PM MDT
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Except that most newspapers don’t actually feature blogs. They feature personal journals of their journalists (All Things Avs is a personal journal, not a blog, for instance). When I see a string of links and blockquotes, then it’s a blog. Otherwise, it might as well be a sappy collection of goth-infused bad poetry on LiveJournal.
Go Avs! Let's get some goals!
by Joe @ MHH on
Jul 15, 2008 2:03 PM MDT
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Look at me! I’m so emoooo-tional!
I'm sorry, Mr. Hossa, but I'm afraid we can't be friends anymore. Why? Because I hate you.
by JDunman on
Jul 16, 2008 9:59 AM MDT
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I’m a unique snowflake!
Go Avs! Let's get some goals!
by Joe @ MHH on
Jul 16, 2008 12:00 PM MDT
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I’ll tell you, there are few things that stir the emotions like seeking out LJ poetry. I’m not going to mention which emotions that are stirred, though. You should go try.
I'm sorry, Mr. Hossa, but I'm afraid we can't be friends anymore. Why? Because I hate you.
by JDunman on
Jul 17, 2008 8:50 AM MDT
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I’ll take your word for it.
Go Avs! Let's get some goals!
by Joe @ MHH on
Jul 17, 2008 9:26 AM MDT
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damn, one of these days I’ll figure this out, that was supposed to be in re joe…...
by TheRed on
Jul 15, 2008 2:31 PM MDT
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