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Fun With Tables!

AGE GP MIN W L T/OT PTS PTS% SO GA GAA SOG SV SV%
25 126 6914 61 36 16 138 0.603 5 311 2.703 3212 2901 0.903
31 129 7186 59 54 10 128 0.465 3 355 3.05 3395 3040 0.892
32 130 7438 69 41 13 151 0.6515 13 302 2.298 3844 3542 0.924
27 121 6692 47 53 16 110 0.392 3 368 3.54 3264 2896 0.883

 

Please take a look at the table above. That's four goalies' stats over the last three seasons, taken from hockey-reference.com.  They all have a similar number of games played, two are from the Western Conference, and two are from the Eastern Conference.  Considering all the variables, but must importantly (IMO) age, points percentage (points divided by maximum points), and save percentage, which goalie would you take from that lot? 

  • If you believe the old adage that money netminders don't hit their prime until age 30 or so, then the second and third goalies on that list look pretty good.
  • If you believe GAA is a worthwhile state for comparing goalies across disparate systems, then you'll continue to chug the kool-aid and begin pining after Bachelor #3. 
  • If you enjoy pain and sorrow from a goaltending perspective, mystery man #4 looks like your cup of tea.  Bland, lukewarm, English tea.  No honey, no sugar. 
  • If you use a goalie trick called soft focus to try and see everything at once and not zero-in on any one stat/attribute, then you'd probably lead toward the guy at the top of that list.

Made your choices?  I'll reveal the winners and losers after the jump.

Star-divide

Mystery netminder #2 is our own former Jose Benedict Theodore, aka Pimp Cane. Bachelor #3 is the hotly chased-after Cristobal "The Crystal Wall" Huet.  Now the good news: #1 is our own Peter "Boots" Budaj.  And now the bad: the bottom of that table is occupied by newly acquired Andrew "Razr" Raycroft.

I'm not a firm believer in GAA comparisons between teams or conferences, so Huet's numbers compared to Budaj in that category don't impress me all that much.  Theo's numbers may not compare too well after a season in the East, especially the Southeast where he gets to see plenty of Mr.'s Lecavalier, Kovalchuk, Staal, St. Louis, etc., plus guys like Crosby and Malkin.  At least he has Ovie on his team (which also means my man-crush on Alexander the Gr8 will be tainted by that back-stabbing, One-Night-in-Paris, hairy midget in net (I'm not bitter, I just don't have to tolerate him anymore!).  But the real question in some Avs fans' minds is did the team make an error in trusting in Budaj over matching Theodore's contract demands?  Here's a closer look at last season between the two goalies:

 

Goalie GP TOI SOG GA SPCT GAA EGA ESPCT EGAA DELTAGAA
Theodore 53 2243:30 967 87 910 2.33 92.65 904 2.48 -0.15
Budaj 35 1405:13 587 52 911 2.22 52.53 910 2.24 -0.02

 

The important stats here are the Save Percentage (SPCT) and Expected Save Percentage (ESPCT).  According to those numbers (taken from behindthenet.ca), Theo slightly over-performed, where Boots was consistent.  The numbers guy at behindthenet.ca didn't have the same comparisons for the 2006-2007 season, but I'd bet Boots' numbers were MUCH better than Theo's across the board.  As shown above (and via popular consensus on this blog and most others), Theo outperformed his historical showings last season, and Budaj STILL kept pace with him.

So to recap for all the lazy readers out there (and Joe, because he's so busy), Boot's was the silver medal winner of the four goalies in wins, points, points percentage, goals against, GAA, and save percentage.  Theo finished behind Budaj in almost every category (granted, not that far behind), but most notably points percentage and GAA.  But here's the real icing on the cake:

 

Goaltender Salary in Millions $
Budaj 0.8
Theodore 4.5
Huet 5.625
Raycroft 0.8

 

That table, plus the second one, show why the Avs may have been REALLY smart in not coming up to Theo's terms.  He and Boots had the same numbers, but Boots is much younger, and MUUUUUUUUUUUCH cheaper.  The Avs fans who think our problem will be in net this season need to realize that keeping Theo wasn't any better of a solution than giving the reigns to Budaj.  From a modern salary-cap standpoint, letting Theo walk was the BEST solution for moving the team forward. Also, chasing a guy like Huet would have been the WORST solution from a cap standpoint, IMO.

All that being said, I realize that this is an extremely narrow group for comparisons sake, but it's important to remember that this was the free agent pool (and let's be honest, Raycroft really wasn't a part of this pool by desire) for the Avs to pick from.  All things considered, Huet priced himself out of anywhere but some of the most low-salary teams (like Chicago) and Theo priced himself out of Denver by asking for so much money compared to a goaltender who was on the books with nearly identical stats.  I for one have no problems entering this season with Boots as the #1.  I may be wrong, but it won't be because I went against the numbers, which as we all know, don't lie...

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Comments

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Excellent entry.

I think, prior to the start of the next season, that I’m going to come up with an Official Mile High Hockey Avalanche Fan Platform, in which I state that the official position of this blog is that Peter Budaj is a competent, reliable goalie who will hold his own (as he always has) as the number one starting goalie, and that he, under any circumstances whatsoever, should not lose his starting job to Andrew Raycroft. For any reason. Ever. And that if Boots wants to hang out in Denver for the rest of his career—-pending any major meltdowns or drug addictions—-that’s okay. Especially if he’s willing to work for a salary below $3 million a year.

The Avalanche will just have to be one of those teams that doesn’t count on superstar goaltending to bail their asses out all the time. Besides, it’s not working for Vancouver or Buffalo, so why expect it to work in Colorado? Is Chris Osgood a lights-out, superstar goaltender? If Detroit can build a system that doesn’t need an ace in net all the time, so can Colorado.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Aug 22, 2008 8:18 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I don’t think we can build a system that doesn’t need an ace in net. We can’t fish guys like Datsyuk and Zetterberg out of the 7th round. There probably won’t be many Lidstroms in the NHL in the future, so there’s very little chance of us getting someone like that. That’s why we need a solid #1, even superstar-like goalie. It’s not working in Buffalo because Miller is just not that good a goalie. It’s not working in Vancouver because their former GM was an idiot who didn’t feel like adding offense even though their defense wasn’t nearly as strong as other defensive-minded teams (i.e., NJ, Minny).

I miss Roy, lol.

by Mike the Avs Fan on Aug 22, 2008 2:50 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

For the first time, we’ll finally have the opportunity to see Budaj as a legitimate number 1 goalie without having to worry about being pulled out at any given moment. Hes always shown to be an extremely competent goalie, and more importantly, hes always been the much more consistent tender that the avs have had since roy. Id even go far enough to say that hes more consistent than Aebischer, and hes not as flippy floppy. One thing that goes unnoticed about Boods, is that hes so much bigger than it appears. He takes up so much more space than lets say Theo ever did. It makes shooters miss more often and he doesnt have any glove/blocker hand, or down low weaknesses that are glaring. Players wont go consistently top corner like they did on Theo. The one thing Boods does need to work on are his 5-hole goals from odd angles. But other than that, im so much more excited about our goaltending situation than i have been in quite a few years now.

Early projections have us in the bottom of the west, in the 10 to 13 range. Its mainly because of Sakic’s indecisiveness and our goaltending situation which is considered ‘’shaky.’’ I GLADLY accept all of those predictions. The avs will be so much better than everyone has predicted.

by EddieAVS on Aug 22, 2008 8:26 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

without having to worry about being pulled out at any given moment

Bye Bye, Q-era!

Only for that reason I’m already looking forward to see how the Avs are gonna do.
I also have faith in Budaj. But we all know that FG has salary to play with if he doesn’t perform. Colorado isn’t a team that has to squeeze the Dollars.

And Sakic will be back, together with Foppa and Sundin. Drury will probably want to join the reunion and I don’t see why Tanguay would enjoy playing in Montreal. He’ll pull a Radulov and come back to the Avs.

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Aug 22, 2008 6:19 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

brilliant post Mike. I still feel Budaj is primed for a great year, and a decent year at the least. Raycroft isn’t exactly inspiring me with confidence though…

by thedoctor on Aug 22, 2008 8:33 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

The downside of having Raycroft as the backup (aside from having Raycroft as the backup) is that Budaj knows that he’d basically have to actually kill kittens while the opposition scores in order to lose his spot.

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Aug 22, 2008 8:49 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Budaj is a very disciplined goalie who takes a lot of pride in his performances. He’s said as much in interviews and his coaches have said the same about him. I highly doubt the Avs will face a complacency problem with him.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Aug 22, 2008 9:22 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

That’s very true, and makes me happy. I hope Raycroft will also learn to feel the same way and start practicing his butt off

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Aug 22, 2008 6:20 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

haha, killing kittens didn’t do much last year though. It took a kitten genocide before Q was gone.

InYoFace Hasek! InYoFace

by InYoFace on Aug 22, 2008 10:48 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Worth it though

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Aug 22, 2008 6:20 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, Budaj showed in 2006-07 that he’s also got stamina. If he can play 60 games, Raycroft’s impact (if it’s negative) won’t have that horrible of an effect.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Aug 22, 2008 9:22 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

i don’t doubt the Avs will have him on a short leash too. Weiman and Bacashihua are both at least mostly viable alternatives if Raycroft sucks.

by thedoctor on Aug 22, 2008 9:55 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, Weiman can fill in a game or two if necessary, and it would probably do him good to get a little more big league experience. Hell, he can fill in for all of Raycroft’s games. Put Raycroft on waivers (which he’ll certainly clear) and then let him hang out in Cleveland for a while.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Aug 22, 2008 10:12 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Did they actually sign Weiman? Did I miss that?

by Mike @ MHH on Aug 22, 2008 3:31 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good job! I actually read and understood the numbers stuff! :-) I think Budaj will be great. He’ll definitely be better than Mason or Ellis…

by Mrs @ MHH on Aug 22, 2008 9:44 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

…who were both superb backups.

Chris Mason’s crapping of the bed in Nashville still confuses me. That guy was money behind Vokoun (VOOOOOO KOOOOOOOOON), but on his own he was junk. It’s not like Nashville suddenly got horrible, either. And Barry Trotz is one of the best coaches in the league. Weird. Maybe it’s because he’s a bald guy with a beard. That always seemed like a weird aesthetic to me.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Aug 22, 2008 10:10 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I really miss Vokoun. I really don’t understand what happened to Mason either. Maybe he just couldn’t handle the pressure. Who knows? I’m really trying to hold out hope that the young guys can carry us this season. I believe in Trotz, even though I still think he looks like a troll.

by Mrs @ MHH on Aug 22, 2008 10:40 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

It’s tough not to look like a troll when you’re born with no neck.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Aug 22, 2008 11:19 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well done Mike

I think all those defeatest, Budaj sucks, “fans” over on the Denver Post boards should see this post.

InYoFace Hasek! InYoFace

by InYoFace on Aug 22, 2008 10:50 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Not to be purposely contrary, but I’d prefer those jokers stay at the Denver Post.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Aug 22, 2008 11:19 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Point taken

They just repeat the same arguments despite the amount of evidence saying they are wrong.

InYoFace Hasek! InYoFace

by InYoFace on Aug 22, 2008 11:51 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe they all live in Colorado Springs.

/backhanded swipe at right wing evangelicals
//last political joke ever I promise

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Aug 22, 2008 11:57 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Zing!

I avoid the Springs at all costs.

InYoFace Hasek! InYoFace

by InYoFace on Aug 22, 2008 12:02 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Budaj’s crap because of his “intangibles”, you see. You can’t argue against that! They’re immeasurable by definition!

I think Boots’ biggest problem seems to be consistency – he’ll have 15 games where he looks like a #1 NHL goalie, then 5 where he lets in goals he really shouldn’t be. The good news? He’s 25. Still got a lot to learn.

I’d prefer to have a slightly more accomplished backup, mind.

by eltharion_doa on Aug 22, 2008 1:36 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I think Boots’ biggest problem seems to be consistency – he’ll have 15 games where he looks like a #1 NHL goalie, then 5 where he lets in goals he really shouldn’t be.

There isn’t a starting goalie in the entire league that doesn’t have a few bad games or let in goals he shouldn’t. Kipper spent the first half of last season sucking ass but nobody doubted his number one status. If Budaj is given the opportunity and the support, he’ll be fine. Like you said, he’s still young and has a long career ahead of him, if everyone will quit expecting him (and every other Avalanche goalie) to be Patrick Roy.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Aug 22, 2008 1:52 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hello??? Theo anyone?

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Aug 22, 2008 6:22 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Budaj

He played for St. Mike’s at the same time as a buddy of mine from high school. Some of my friends would go to the games and try to win the fan of the game. The best sign they came up with was:

Budaj is my god

No word on whether he thought that was funny.

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Aug 22, 2008 1:48 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Considering he’s a pretty hardcore Christian, I suspect he may have thought it a little sacrilegious.

And anyway, “Flanders For President” is a better sign.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Aug 22, 2008 1:53 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great post!

Just looking at the stats, I would have undoubtedly taken option #3 (Huet). And looking at the names, I’d still rather have Huet than any of those other guys. His only downside is his age, he is a bit old already. But oh well, gotta work with what we have. This season is pretty much riding on Budaj’s shoulders, good luck to him.

by Mike the Avs Fan on Aug 22, 2008 2:52 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Personally, I think the season is riding on Paul Stastny’s shoulders.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Aug 22, 2008 3:04 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1, especially if a certain current el Capitan rides off into the sunset…

by Mike @ MHH on Aug 22, 2008 3:33 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well yeah, but imo the season always depends on how good your goalie will do. Of course, Stastny putting up 120 points will certainly make it a lot easier for all of us. I think Staz will pull through big time this year. He was a little inconsistent last year, even before the injuries started, but still, I can just feel it. I just hope we won’t have as many injuries this year.

by Mike the Avs Fan on Aug 22, 2008 4:58 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I just hope we won’t have as many injuries this year.

I’m pretty sure it’s physically impossible get as many injuries as last year! Leopold Not Withstanding…

by Mike @ MHH on Aug 22, 2008 7:33 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do we still do that joke?

He played a proper 806 minutes this season (including play-offs).
And he can’t help the fact he’s made of glass and he’s not willing to do proper training exercises to fix his groin or wrist.

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Aug 23, 2008 1:07 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Groin and wrist injuries? Maybe he’s just lonely.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Aug 24, 2008 1:47 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

HAHAHAHA, why did I not think about that combo yet???

ZING

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Aug 25, 2008 5:12 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

What I meant by that was that the weak link on the Avalanche, in my opinion, is the offense, not the defense or the goalie. Both of the latter will be consistent. Not amazing, but consistent. I think the biggest danger is from Sakic retiring and Wolski, Hejduk and/or Svatos under-performing. The wild card is the offense, not anything else.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Aug 22, 2008 8:06 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m VERY happy with the current Avalanche defense. Leopold Not Withstanding…

Oops, made the same joke :P

But seriously, apart from the lack of depth we have a very good top 6 Defense.

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Aug 23, 2008 1:08 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have no problem with Leo on D. He’s a top 4 defensemen, but I don’t think he was utilized (or Liles for that matter) very well by ‘Coach’ Q and coupled with his injuries, he’s been largely forgettable since coming to Denver. I know you don’t want to put all of your eggs in one basket, but with all of the troubles that the PP had last year, I always wondered why the two best ‘offensive’ d-men on the team weren’t on the same PP unit together. Methinks Q played some favorites with some of the vets, even though they weren’t getting the job done. Square pegs in round holes, like Sakic on the point, etc.

by Mike @ MHH on Aug 23, 2008 9:08 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Worse than Sakic on the point was when he tried Wolski in the same position. Wolski’s D has improved, but not enough to be playing on the point like that.

Now and then we had the hope that if we lived and were good, God would permit us to be PIRATES.
-Mark Twain-

by Americanario on Aug 23, 2008 10:53 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Honestly, I think Svatos would have done better on the PP point than Wolski. Svatos turned his defense up about twenty notches last year. Still not awesome, but much better.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Aug 24, 2008 1:49 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

while he may have done better thats as big a misuse as smyth behind the net. You ever see svats score from further out than the hash marks?

by TheRed on Aug 25, 2008 2:21 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m gonna miss Old Q. He’s like the daddy who touched you in bad places long enough to grow fond off him…

Tell me when I go too far

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Aug 24, 2008 10:52 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do you live in Stockholm by any chance?

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Aug 24, 2008 1:49 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Leiden, Holland

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Aug 25, 2008 5:13 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know, I was just being sarcastic.

Stockholm reference = Stockholm Syndrome

/shows self out

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Aug 25, 2008 7:03 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

How could I miss that one?

I’ll have to cut myself tonight, cus I missed a blogging joke. Hope you’re happy now!

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Aug 25, 2008 9:38 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m never happy

"To have arrived on this Earth as a product of a biological accident, only to depart through human arrogance, would be the ultimate irony"
R. Leakey, Origins; 1977

by Savage33 on Aug 26, 2008 4:35 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is true…

by Mike @ MHH on Aug 26, 2008 2:16 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

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