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Two observations

First, I was watching the Avalanche All Access program on Altitutde and here's a little tid bit that won't suprise any of you.  Tyler Arnason is roomates with Bret Clark.  When Kyle Keefe asked Clark what's one thing most people don't know about your roomate on the road?  He answered, Arny sleeps all the time.  He can sleep anywhere, anytime and he sleeps constantly.  The punchline is so freeking obvious I'm not going to even go there.

Second, I was watching the 2001 game six against the Devils.  Although this eventual Stanley Cup champion team featured the unGodly lineup of Roy, Bourque, Blake and Foote on the back end, it featured something up front I totally forgot about. Your first line was the red hot Hejduk-Sakic-Tangauy line.  They killed it all year long and in the playoffs.  Guess what the second line was?  Niemenen-Drury-HInote.  You read that right, the second line of the Stanley cup champs featured the names Nieminen and Hinote.

The reason this strikes me as important is because the Avs prior to Stastny going down to injury were one of the weakest teams in the West at center.  Arnason as your second string centerman was killing this team.  Now that Wolski has shown his ability at center the Avs have two solid centermen going forward, Sakic is just gravy.  The Avs certainly have some housekeeping to do in their back end with defensive coverage and goaltending.  However, if the Avs can keep it close they could make some serious strides when Stastny gets back.  This league is dominated by teams that are strong up the middle and the Avs can now hold their own there once Stastny gets back.

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it is encouraging that we're stronger down the middle

but I still think we’re stuck in neutral unless we get a better on-ice identity. i watch this team and routinely ask the TV what the hell it is we’re trying to do, and that’s got to change.

by thedoctor on Jan 23, 2009 10:53 PM MST reply actions  

Don't forget

That Forsberg lost his spleen, or the second line would have been Drury-Forsberg-Niemenan, which is much better.

Plus the 3rd line of Podein-Yelle Hinote was badass.

I believe in Peter Budaj

by Jibblescribbits on Jan 24, 2009 3:47 PM MST reply actions  

Oh I know. But the point is the Avs beat Broduer, Stevens, Danyenko, Rafalski and Neidermeyer with that as their second line. Yelle and Co. were good forwards and great on defense no doubt. But once again the strength of that line was totally center heavy.

by Dario on Jan 24, 2009 6:01 PM MST up reply actions  

I don’t think a strong center is the main reason to go deep into the play-offs. Sure when you look at San Jose and Detroit, but not so much when you look at the Penguins, The Devils or the Capitals (the last 2 don’t have a strong center, yet they still dominate their division).

The Bruins centers are actually performing rather well (although they’re no all-stars). Otherwise all the east division leaders would’ve been weak-centered.

by Tommelot on Jan 25, 2009 11:54 AM MST reply actions  

I guess I don’t understand your examples Tommelot.

Malkin, Crosby and Staal aren’t strong centers? I understand that the Penguins aren’t having a great year so far but they are a year removed from the finals.

Zajac, Zubrus, Madden and Holik for the Devils aren’t strong up the middle? I’m not sure any team in the league is as strong up the middle defensively as NJ. Granted, a lot of people don’t know the name Zajac but he’s no joke. If Zubrus is the weak link at center then color me jealous.

Backstrom, Federov, Steckel and Nylander for Washington aren’t the big names on that team I will grant you. However, Backstrom is fantastic and Steckel should get a lions share of credit for the plays he sets up for Semin. The Avalanche could be so lucky as to have Federov and Nylander making up the bottom of their rotations.

I hate to argue against everything you said, but I will say that Boston does have an all-star at center named Krejci . He got completely robbed in the all star selections this year.

by Dario on Jan 25, 2009 9:35 PM MST up reply actions  

What he means

Is that those teams don’t have big reputation centers.

Krejci’s been epic this yeah, but I bet you could poll 10,000 NHL fans prior to the start of the season and get 9,850 “who?” responses.

by eltharion_doa on Jan 26, 2009 5:17 AM MST up reply actions  

Then you did understand my examples.

I know the Penguins did very well last year, but their centers didn’t change and all of a sudden they’re getting blown out the last few weeks.

I must admit I don’t follow a lot of NJ, but their stats aren’t that impressive (36pts, 28pts, 18pts and 5 pts). You can hardly say they get their push from the middle (with Parise, Elias, Gionta and Langenbrunner in the line-up).

I will grant you that Backstrom is fantastic, but during the few Capitals games I’ve seen this year, I wasn’t impressed with Steckel while Semin skated around like he owned the place.

Krejci is a talented skater and so is Savard, but they’re no better than Sakic/Stastny (when they’re actually playing). Add Wolski and Guite in that equation and I’m pretty confident on how our Centers stack up vs the east teams.

I’m not saying we’re anywhere like some of the dominating west team (SJ and The Evil Empire), but I just don’t see how having big centers is more important than having big Wingmen/Defenders.

by Tommelot on Jan 26, 2009 6:07 AM MST up reply actions  

Semin’s having a beast of a season. If he’d been fit the whole time, he’d have the scoring titles wrapped up by March.

Helps playing on a great line of course…

by eltharion_doa on Jan 27, 2009 8:41 AM MST up reply actions  

Among forwards, the center is the linchpin of a hockey team. Go take a look at which teams win Stanley Cups again. Strong 2-way centers are a pretty common attribute.

Never trust the lunch lady.

by Hardshell_Taco_del_Lowayne on Jan 26, 2009 10:05 AM MST up reply actions  

Not more common than a good Goalie.

by Tommelot on Jan 26, 2009 12:13 PM MST up reply actions  

i think this is incorrect. let’s look at the last 5 champs, shall we?

07-08: Osgood (sucks)
06-07: Giguere (excellent)
05-06: Ward and Gerber tandem (very average)
03-04: Khabibulin (decent, but certainly not great, especially that year)
02-03: Brodeur (excellent)

so that’s 1 tandem of crap goalies (Ward and Gerber), 1 crap goalie on a really good team (Osgood), 1 aging decent goalie with just ok numbers (Khabibulin), and 2 top 5 goalies. I don’t see it. You put a better team in front of Budaj, like the 2004 lightning, and he’ll play like Khabibulin at least.

by thedoctor on Jan 26, 2009 12:45 PM MST up reply actions  

07-08: Osgood (sucks)

He was a brick wall during the play-offs. And before that Hasek was playing lights-out.

05-06: Ward and Gerber tandem (very average)

Ward played 23 games and had .920 save percentage. Not SO average. and not so tandem.

Khabi also had .933 save percentage. (I just realised NOW that .933 is a really bad PERCENTAGE (less than 1%!, it ought to be 93,3 save percentage)

Giguere ‘only’ had a .922 and Brodeur had .934

I think these actual statistics are a bit more trustworthy than saying someone sucks.

by Tommelot on Jan 26, 2009 2:18 PM MST up reply actions  

Disagree

Ward did have a good run, but he’s a very mediocre goalie. He was hot that year.

Osgood played average at best, where the Wings won was that their D-corps played brilliantly. Osgood was sucky, but it didn’t matter

I believe in Peter Budaj

by Jibblescribbits on Jan 26, 2009 2:20 PM MST up reply actions  

Story of his career

Why else would the Wings try to replace him almost every season as the starter. And why would they start an obviously washed up Hasek in the playoffs over him? Osmediocre is the poster child for a great team carrying a mediocre goalie to a cup.

MHH: Shagging Dater one contributor at a time.

by Bob in Boulder on Jan 26, 2009 2:23 PM MST up reply actions  

I know, but his stats aren’t half bad, and it’s more telling than saying “every cup contender had strong centers”.

by Tommelot on Jan 26, 2009 2:48 PM MST up reply actions  

Disagree 2

You’re probably right about Osgood, but Ward was an elite goaltender during that run and Osgood still managed to stop 20.7 shots/60mins.

It’s hard to factor in a quality of shot value.

by Tommelot on Jan 26, 2009 2:42 PM MST up reply actions  

Those 20.7 saves were from an average of about 25 I believe. Not the greatest numbers.

The Savage has spoken. Let it be done

"Two roads divurged in a wood, and I took the one less travelled by, and that has made all the difference"
R. Frost

by Savage33 on Jan 26, 2009 6:41 PM MST up reply actions  

how does that work with a saving percentage of .920??? Come on, mate. Do the math!

by Tommelot on Jan 27, 2009 12:24 AM MST up reply actions  

The Savage's confused

There is NO WAY Osgood had a save % of.920
I’m talking about him, not Ward. Ward was a beast in that cup run, Osgood was poor.

The Savage has spoken. Let it be done

"Two roads divurged in a wood, and I took the one less travelled by, and that has made all the difference"
R. Frost

by Savage33 on Jan 27, 2009 2:14 AM MST up reply actions  

all you’re saying is that you need a hot goalie in the playoffs, and even that is a pretty nebulous thing. look at their season stats! Khabby was a .910 goalie the year they won the cup, Ward a .882 sv pct, Gerber a marginal .906. Osgood is compiling a stellar .887 sv pct himself this year. Awesome!

plus, the hot goalie thing is totally overplayed anyways. i always get mad about this and we’ve seen this with Raycroft ourselves very recently — people mistake correlation of good goalie stats with wins as causation. I bet if you put goalie stats in wins against goalie stats in losses you’d see a huge disparity, like .950 vs. .850. would this mean that teams only win when goalies play well? of course not. Goalies are, just like defensemen, extremely difficult to quantify statistically.

by thedoctor on Jan 26, 2009 2:52 PM MST up reply actions  

John Kelly

Thank You Thank You Thank You.

Goalie stats are so tied to the team in front of them that it’s truly impossible to really get a feel for how goalies are playing unless you watch them. sure Save % is a marginal indicator, but bad teams still give up more quality shots against than good teams. Look at the goalies in the ASG. Their stats were awful, but only because of the defense played in front of them.

And Wins and GAA… bleh meaningless stats (in terms of measuring goalie performance)

I believe in Peter Budaj

by Jibblescribbits on Jan 26, 2009 3:23 PM MST up reply actions  

i wonder if the economic downturn will bite altitude? i’d love to see the whole thing written off as a failure and Haynes can go back to radio where he really shines, McNabb could actually use his deep hockey knowledge and not verbally fellate every hockey player in sight, and in general we get real coverage again. I watch hockey games on mute these days.

by thedoctor on Jan 26, 2009 3:57 PM MST up reply actions  

(ok that was random — your john kelly thing brought it on)

by thedoctor on Jan 26, 2009 3:58 PM MST up reply actions  

doubtful

I think Altitude actually does pretty well for Kronke, and other than the blatent homerism I actually think Altitude has some of the better local broadcast’s in the league.

Watch some of the Fox Sports feeds and the picture quality itself is enough to make you happy for Altitude

I believe in Peter Budaj

by Jibblescribbits on Jan 26, 2009 4:02 PM MST up reply actions  

Very true.

They may fellate more than Paris Hilton, but at least they draw you in to the game.

It’s night and day when switching to some feeds and listening to their announcers call what I can only assume is a friggin’ curling game based on their enthusiasm.

And when you’re subjected to Pierre McGuire as often as us unfortunate Canadians, the Altidudes seem like they’re on sedatives.

And yes, I’m a Canadian who hates curling.

by ShaneG on Jan 26, 2009 5:59 PM MST up reply actions  

Canadian who hates curling?

DOES NOT COMPUTE.

I am Jack's unbridled optimism.

by A.J. Haefele on Jan 26, 2009 6:17 PM MST up reply actions  

Two yankee-doodles fighting in a curling game. This will be sure to impress our 2 viewers. Yes I may have butchered that line but the main gist of it stands.

The Savage has spoken. Let it be done

"Two roads divurged in a wood, and I took the one less travelled by, and that has made all the difference"
R. Frost

by Savage33 on Jan 26, 2009 6:43 PM MST up reply actions  

I tend to disagree because I think the stats for a center are just as reliant on his teammates as the stats for the goalie. It’s a a very weak argument, just saying that the team in front of you is strong/weak.

Look at the LEM at the moment. They’re absolutely dreadful, but their goalies are actually keeping them in games.

All you’re doing is making your own argument bulletproof by stating that stats cannot be trusted. I think we can all safely say that any team that gets to the conference finals has a proper defense and there’ll be not that much difference in the quality of shots given up by either of the teams, otherwise they wouldn’t have gotten that far.

I think stats like GAA are just as meaningless as secondary assists. Here in Europe they’re not even counted.

by Tommelot on Jan 27, 2009 12:35 AM MST up reply actions  

I disagree slightly

First a centers stats aren’t really as relient on his teammates as a goalies. I had a game on sunday which we lost 8-6 or something, and 6 of the goals were scored by 1 player. His stats didn’t have a whole lot to do with teammates as he managed to get the puck and fly throuh our poor excuse for a defense. He had a lot of good quality scoring chances where I was hung out to dry by my D. His stats look good because HE was good. My stats look crap through a combination of my 6 month old, figured out by myself skills and our crappy D. If our D was was actually playing D then my stats would look slightly better. His team may as well not have been there and his stats still look good.

As for your Conference Defenses argument I agree to an extent, but you’ll still have teams that are mainly D like detroit that win because they limit quality shots and you’ll have teams like Pittsburgh whose D isn’t as good and relies more on their offense and Goaltenders standing on thier head to win.

The Savage has spoken. Let it be done

"Two roads divurged in a wood, and I took the one less travelled by, and that has made all the difference"
R. Frost

by Savage33 on Jan 27, 2009 2:22 AM MST up reply actions  

Well of course

Of course center stats are tied to his teammates, and yes Goalie stats can indicate which goalies are keeping their teams in games (for example, Mike Smith of Tampa) but if you look at the worst Save % of goalies with over 25 starts, most goalies either play on offensive minded teams who give upo a lot of odd man rushes the other way (Theo) but score a lot of goals to make up for it, or bad teams (Isles, Avs, Predators, Stars, Blues) or sucky goalies (Osgood). Are those teams bad because of their goalies, or are those goalie stats bad because of their teams? It’s impossible to say, especially with a stat like Save % because it doesn’t normalize itself over the quality of teammates.

I think we can all safely say that any team that gets to the conference finals has a proper defense and there’ll be not that much difference in the quality of shots given up by either of the teams, otherwise they wouldn’t have gotten that far.

I don’t agree with this at all. Especially in a small sample size of the playoffs, the sample size is so small that a team with a previously bad defense could play above their head for 8 games (all it takes to get there) and since they only play 2 teams before the conference finals it is highly dependent on the style of the teams they play against.

It’s not about making an argument bulletproof it’s about understanding the biases and flaws in a statistic before taking it as gospel. Shot quality does not normalize itself out over the course of the season… For example:

Brett Clark blocks a lot of shots, but he also puts himself in vulnerable positions by attempting to block shots sometimes. so he takes away a lot of shots (which is a good thing) but when it backfires the opponent is more likely to get a higher quality shot. This has the added benefit of keeping easier shots off the goalies stat sheet, and giving up higher quality shots (i.e. more goals relative to shots on goal) further reducing Avs goalies save %. While Clark’s shotblocking is good for the team in most cases it adds a bias into the Save % numbers which doesn’t average itself out over time.

This is just a more extreme of many factors that can bias a Save % over the course of a season, one that a goalie has no control over.

I believe in Peter Budaj

by Jibblescribbits on Jan 27, 2009 8:25 AM MST up reply actions  

I thought Reinprecht played with Drury and Niemenen

I know he is listed as a center, but I thought he played wing with those two…and only occasionaly did Hinote get bumped up.

Of course this doesn’t exactly contradict your main point…Reiprecht is a solid player, but he hardly strikes fear in the hearts of the opposition.

by exredcoat on Jan 26, 2009 7:21 AM MST reply actions  

Yelle

I remember that when Yelle was here the dude couldn’t score on the rush, deke or slapshot…but you put him on his ass, stomach, facing away from the goal or floating through the air that guy was unstoppable… of the top 10 highlight goals of the avs, probably 3 or so are his from those positions.

by An Unmitigated Disaster on Jan 26, 2009 10:51 AM MST reply actions  

Reminds me of Svatos last season. If that kid was scoring, it was because he was on his knees, sliding into the boards, or falling down. Of course, he had other goals too it just seemed like the magic for him was from odd positions.

Red Wings Suck

by texacogirl on Jan 26, 2009 8:55 PM MST up reply actions  

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