Duchene "Overhyped"?

by HugoAgogo on Oct 24, 2009 3:04 PM MDT Comment 38 comments

Came across this article at Puck Prospectus on the 2009 draft. It said some interesting things to say the least, especially on Duchene:

It seems that Los Angeles and Atlanta made out well with their first round picks, while Colorado went with the hype rather than the numbers.

...it looks like someone has issues.

Further...by their reckoning Stefan Elliot is not only the best choice by the Avs in the draft but the 5th best choice overall for the 2009 draft...

I guess we'll see if their statistical crystal ball is accurate or not (...I'd guess the latter)

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6 points in 10 games for an 18-year-old? Not bad…and who’s fault is it when someone is over-hyped. Certainly not the guy himself

by chiavsfan on Oct 24, 2009 3:40 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

How does that ‘projectionator’ even work?

Strikes me its a bit like getting a few points on a graph at some massive value on the x-axis and then extrapolating back to find the y-intercept. ie there’s a huge error.

If you could make a good decision on a players future production based solely on their numbers at junior level, then there would be no scouting. Instead, teams would send a bit of cash to a man at a computer. In his underwear.

I’m happy to have the lad.

by pingu on Oct 24, 2009 3:46 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Instead, teams would send a bit of cash to a man at a computer. In his underwear.

Yep….

The thing that annoyed me is that it appeared that the ‘projectionator’ used primarily counting stats combined with available league-wide standardising variables. However, there is no accounting for someone who has better linemates or has to face the best guys on the opposition’s team…

I’m also happy to have the lad…

by HugoAgogo on Oct 24, 2009 6:01 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

and let’s not forget the intangibles that aren’t put into stats at all…how many times have we seen duchene force a guy off a puck or stay on one despite having two bigger guys trying to force him off?? time will show that duchene was the right choice.

Beachie: Injuring hottie Avs players' groins since 1996

by BeachNSnowGirl on Oct 24, 2009 11:34 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's how it works in baseball with the Oakland A's

That overbearing jerk Billy Beane gets his draft picks from a computer, according to that piece of crap book Moneyball.

"You were born to be a player. You were meant to be here. This moment is yours." -- Coach Herb Brooks' pregame speech prior to the Miracle on Ice

by wtnelson on Oct 26, 2009 12:56 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kinda seems like it's working

Why hate?

by eltharion_doa on Oct 27, 2009 11:06 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

ITS NOT

thats why they havent made a world series since LaRussa left

Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat

by DESTROYER on Oct 27, 2009 7:30 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, no

But don’t they have like 1/4 of the payroll of the Yankees or something?

by eltharion_doa on Oct 29, 2009 8:31 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Strikes me its a bit like getting a few points on a graph at some massive value on the x-axis and then extrapolating back to find the y-intercept. ie there’s a huge error.

And odd way to say it… but DING DING DING… correct! it’s been 11 games into what is certainly a 10+ YEAR career. Let’s wait until he has a few season under his belt.

The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time

by Jibblescribbits on Oct 24, 2009 11:16 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jibbs,
Sounds like the same formula that the Minny blogger used to find out who had the best fans, eh?

This team will make the playoffs and upset the Sharks in the first round...it's our turn.

by An Unmitigated Disaster on Oct 25, 2009 10:15 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's got a huge bias for WHL

by Drakenlot on Oct 24, 2009 5:17 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

He's got a huge bias for offensive defenseman also.

by HugoAgogo on Oct 24, 2009 5:39 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stats are great and all...

but which rookie is playing a big role on a team that is now 8-1-2? ’Nuff said.

Joe Sakic.

by BraxtanFILM on Oct 25, 2009 10:09 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

O’Rielly?

This team will make the playoffs and upset the Sharks in the first round...it's our turn.

by An Unmitigated Disaster on Oct 25, 2009 10:16 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I see what you did there

Beachie: Injuring hottie Avs players' groins since 1996

by BeachNSnowGirl on Oct 25, 2009 10:44 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

In the immortal words of one Han Solo, “Sometimes I amaze even myself.” :)

This team will make the playoffs and upset the Sharks in the first round...it's our turn.

by An Unmitigated Disaster on Oct 25, 2009 8:01 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

OOH I know,

It’s Gus Young right?

by Drakenlot on Oct 25, 2009 10:39 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is there a proper picture of him yet even….? Otherwise, he could be anywhere…..

by HugoAgogo on Oct 25, 2009 3:11 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even right behind you?

by Drakenlot on Oct 25, 2009 3:34 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is he the matrix?

This team will make the playoffs and upset the Sharks in the first round...it's our turn.

by An Unmitigated Disaster on Oct 25, 2009 8:00 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

You know, maybe Duchene doesn’t have the points yet, but Scott Reynolds put together some statistical data that supports the idea that, you know, Boy Wonder freaking rocks.

Beachie: Injuring hottie Avs players' groins since 1996

by BeachNSnowGirl on Oct 25, 2009 10:51 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah…saw Scott’s stuff soon after and it alleviated my annoyance at Puck Prospectus using crusty old numbers and obvious biases to try (but fail) to create a controversy about Duchene…I’m so glad that he’s up with us so we can see him prove them wrong (if it even were actually necessary).

by HugoAgogo on Oct 25, 2009 3:13 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Like that stuff is necessary anyway. Just watch the kid play.

Mile High Hockey: Hoping for the best, expecting the worst, hating the Wings.

by Joe Dunman on Oct 27, 2009 8:03 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs

Stats meen nothing if there playing good

"Some people think of the future and it upsets them. They see a rocket and they start building a bomb shelter. They see T.J. Oshie, they start building a fallout shelter."

by Oshie#74 on Oct 26, 2009 4:01 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Welcome!

2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche - See what can happen if you like, you know, try and stuff?

by Hopfenkopf on Oct 26, 2009 6:09 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

FYI

Duchene has the worst shooting % on the team (for anyone with a goal). That will improve. He’s just been a bit unlucky.

The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time

by Jibblescribbits on Oct 27, 2009 9:13 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Also…like I said in the thread on scoring chances – Duchene has the highest quality of opposition amongst Avs’ forwards.

Consequently, this makes it more likely that he be ‘luckier’ if he see the occasional sheltered minute or two…

by HugoAgogo on Oct 27, 2009 6:37 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Allow me to point out the fact,

that Duchene has MANY, MANY shots that very few, if any, other would have had the ability to get off, especially in light of the opposition quality he is facing.

2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche - See what can happen if you like, you know, try and stuff?

by Hopfenkopf on Oct 27, 2009 10:54 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

HYPE?!

Wouldn’t that be the Islanders, or even the Lightning?

Since when was this kid overhyped? Hell, ORLY has had more pub since the season started.

Mile High Mayhem just another ho-hum Avs blog.

by InfamousM on Oct 27, 2009 11:26 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

to be fair, radar’s success was totally unexpected. and by hype, i think this is referring to post-draft coverage, not necessarily reg season coverage.

Beachie: Injuring hottie Avs players' almighty groins since 1996

by BeachNSnowGirl on Oct 27, 2009 12:50 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Still…look before the draft…Tavares was supposed to be the next Lemeieux, and the next Lidstrom was Hedman…talk about over-hype.

Mile High Mayhem just another ho-hum Avs blog.

by InfamousM on Oct 27, 2009 6:42 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I still would've liked Hedman.

But Duchene is playing up to snuff. The kid makes scoring chances out of nothing.

by wolski-08 on Oct 27, 2009 11:39 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

he also makes defensive plays out of nothing. last night i was in utter amazement at least a dozen times by his play. when he finds his groove and what he needs to do to score, he will be unstopable.

Beachie: Injuring hottie Avs players' almighty groins since 1996

by BeachNSnowGirl on Oct 28, 2009 10:25 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is Ryan O’Reilly underhyped? He wins facesoffs, crucial ones too, he sets guys up and scores ocassionally and he’s awesome defensively. He could be the team mvp at the 1/8 way mark.

This team will make the playoffs and upset the Sharks in the first round...it's our turn.

by An Unmitigated Disaster on Oct 27, 2009 3:20 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs