Scoring Chances Games 1-10

by Scott Reynolds on Oct 24, 2009 6:47 PM MDT

As some of you may know, I've been tracking scoring chances for all of the Avalanche games this year. I put together a chart showing how each of the players has performed over the first ten games and though that I may as well put it up here. For those who are unfamiliar with the scoring chance metric, a player is awarded a chance any time someone on the ice has a chance to score. A "chance for" is awarded if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" is given if the opposing team has a chance to score. It's like +/-. I've broken the graph down into three game states, EV situations, PP situations (excluding 5v3) and SH situations (excluding 5v3). At EV I've also included a "scoring chance percentage" which is simply the number of chances for divided by the the total number of chances for both teams when a given player is on the ice. The players are all represented by their jersey numbers. Without further ado, here is the chart (my analysis of some of the numbers can be found here):

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So what you’re saying is Brett Clark is better than Johnnie Hot pocket. guess Jibbles was right about +/- after all. Oh, and that 41 guy is a stud. He sure does create a lot of chances!

Really, though, thanks for the info. I actually like +/-, just more as a team metric as a context within which to take individual play rather than a stand alone stat.

Get rid of the loser point

09-10 Avs- Nowhere to go but up!

by TheRed on Oct 25, 2009 1:51 AM MDT reply actions

These numbers still need context of course. Some bad numbers can be excused if a player is always starting in the defensive zone or if he’s always taking on the other team’s best players. Liles isn’t doing either which makes his EV numbers pretty scary. His contribution to winning comes largely (perhpas entirely) on the PP. Another guy really struggling is Adam Foote. The toughest matchups are going to Hannan and Quincey, yet they’re miles ahead of Foote in scoring chance differential.

by Scott Reynolds on Oct 25, 2009 10:55 AM MDT up reply actions

Liles PP numbers tho look good. I think our PP has suffered a lot since he’s been out.

Hannan and Quincey are gods. (And now will everyone please shut up about Hannan being overpaid???)

Beachie: Injuring hottie Avs players' almighty groins since 1996

by BeachNSnowGirl on Oct 25, 2009 11:05 AM MDT up reply actions

He’s finally looking like the D-man he was for San Jose in the 00-01 series.

He was such an ass to Foppa in that series.

We all have dreams. But in order to make dreams come into reality, it takes an awful lot of determination, dedication, self-discipline, and effort. - Jesse Owens -

I'm The Canary - but I'm not cute nor cuddly, and I don't sing.

by Americanario on Oct 25, 2009 11:17 AM MDT up reply actions

Speaking of Forsberg….I’m having fantasies of Duchene centering a line with him and Stewie. /drool

Beachie: Injuring hottie Avs players' almighty groins since 1996

by BeachNSnowGirl on Oct 25, 2009 12:10 PM MDT up reply actions

Fantasies uh? I’m sure there is more than drool to worry about…can’t you control yourself?

We all have dreams. But in order to make dreams come into reality, it takes an awful lot of determination, dedication, self-discipline, and effort. - Jesse Owens -

I'm The Canary - but I'm not cute nor cuddly, and I don't sing.

by Americanario on Oct 25, 2009 1:31 PM MDT up reply actions

Liles is very good on the PP (you don’t get a 4.2M deal by doing nothing well) but I doubt his contribution there makes up for his being, essentially, a poor third pairing defender at EV.

by Scott Reynolds on Oct 25, 2009 1:54 PM MDT up reply actions

Well, I think this chart should shut people up about the Duchene “controversy.”

Beachie: Injuring hottie Avs players' groins since 1996

by BeachNSnowGirl on Oct 25, 2009 10:49 AM MDT reply actions

Indeed. Duchene has played very well so far this year. So has O’Reilly. The difference is that O’Reilly is usually right around even while Duchene has more games where he’s +5 or -5.

by Scott Reynolds on Oct 25, 2009 10:51 AM MDT up reply actions

What do you think about Duchene having the highest quality of competition amongst forwards and only behind Quincey and Hannan overall versus O’Reilly’s more sheltered minutes against weaker opposition (4th worst)…?

I think if anything it doesn’t undermine O’Reilly’s achievements, rather it points to the fact that Duchene is being trusted with a lot this early in his career….

by HugoAgogo on Oct 25, 2009 3:30 PM MDT up reply actions

I agree that Duchene is being trusted with a lot more. He’s both getting tougher minutes and a lot MORE minutes at EV. I’m an Oiler fan and so I watched all of Sam Gagner’s rookie year quite intently. He got off to a great start and then started to fizzle as the season went on before picking things up again in the second half. I expect to see a similar period sometime this year where Duchene really struggles but so far he’s been very good. There are games where he looks lost and others where he looks like one of the best players on the ice.

O’Reilly, on the other hand, has been very consistent. He’s getting by in the NHL with his positioning and his smarts. Because he’s relying less on out and out skill and because his level of opposition isn’t quite as good at capitalizing on mistakes he hasn’t had the same up-and-down look as Duchene.

by Scott Reynolds on Oct 25, 2009 5:25 PM MDT up reply actions

I also thought that. The problem is that people who don’t like Duchene are also people who will not listen to such things as “reasoned arguments” and “logic”

Get rid of the loser point

09-10 Avs- Nowhere to go but up!

by TheRed on Oct 25, 2009 2:03 PM MDT up reply actions

I think apart from Quincey and Hannan, you have to be a bit surprised by Clark’s performance: +1 at even strength is good considering he has the 3rd hardest minutes at the moment, -24 on PK in 28 minutes of time is pretty bad though…

Also, Cumiskey’s lack of chance production on the PP (+14 chances in 21 minutes v Liles who had +26 in 25 minutes at similar strength of opposition)…

Clearly, these could be a product of small sample size or in Cumiskey’s case growing pains

by HugoAgogo on Oct 25, 2009 3:24 PM MDT reply actions

Yeah, we’ll know more as the season goes on and the sample size increases. I’m really interested to see what happens when Liles gets back. Will his EV numbers improve substantially? Will his PP numbers regress substantially? I’m not sure but I think his injury will actually help to give us a sense of what he brings to the team.

by Scott Reynolds on Oct 25, 2009 5:28 PM MDT up reply actions