The scoring chance data is something I track as I watch each Avs game. To be honest, I don’t usually watch the games live and I haven’t done the Flyers game yet but it’ll hopefully be up by the weekend. At the moment I’ve finished through game 21. After scoring each game I put up a scoring chance recap that notes the time of every scoring chance in each game as well as a recap with some thoughts on the game. So, if you wanted to, you could go over a tape of a game with all the scoring chances noted and skip to the times I have noted as a chance for or against with Liles on the ice. It’s obviously better when the information is timely and I like to stay at least reasonably close but I’ve fallen a bit behind. There are a few others that are counting chances this season as well for the Wild, Canadiens, Oilers and Flames. I like those games the best because it gives us a chance to compare our results.

As for how I use the statistic to judge players, I completely agree that, in isolation, scoring chances have limited value. I don’t think that makes it different from any other statistic but it’s still true. In the case of Liles, it’s just one data point that’s pointing in a negative direction. The problem, as I see it, is that it’s one data point among many.

When I say he needs to be hidden at EV, I’m mostly referring to how coaches are using him and how he’s responded with that ice time.

So first, how are coaches using him? So far this year Liles has been on the ice for 10 more faceoffs in the offensive zone than he has in the defensive zone which is the most favourable distribution among Avalanche defenders. In 2008-09 he was on the ice for 34 more faceoffs in the OZ than the DZ, again the most favourable distribution among Avalanche defenders. In 2007-08 he had 118 more faceoffs in the OZ than the DZ which, as you might expect, was the most favourable distribution among Avalanche defenders. So when he’s on the ice at EV he’s starting in the OZ more than any other Avs defenceman.

I’m not sure if you’re familiar with Gabe Desjardins’ “quality of competition” statistic but it’s a statistic that tries to measure how good the opponents you play against are. So far this year Liles is about middle of the pack (4th) among Avs defenders but in both 2008-09 and 2007-08 he faced the easiest competition among Avs defenders who played at least 50 games.

Taken together that means when Liles was on the ice he was playing against the other team’s poorer players and more often than not, starting in either the offensive zone or the neutral zone. As you said earlier, the circumstances in 2007-08 were much better than those in 2008-09 because the Avs weren’t as good last year but even last season the coach still managed to get Liles out against other team’s poorer players and in more offensive situations.

Another good question is how often is a player used? So far this season, Liles is ranked 6th among Avs defenders in TOI at EV. In 2007-08 he was ranked 7th. Last year (both his worst and the Avs worst statistically) he was ranked 2nd. It’s an indication to me that the team is most effective when Liles has a well-defined and somewhat limited role at EV.

The second half is the, “how is he doing” part. And this is where I would use scoring chances as one data point among many others. Some of the others include Corsi (which is essentially a /- that tracks shotsmissed shots+blocked shots when an individual player is on the ice), EV +/- (the regular +/- stat has some weird things about it that make me like it less) and Points.

So how did he do? In terms of Corsi he generally does alright. He’s very close to breaking even. In 2007-08 he’s just above and in 2008-09 he’s just below. Both years he’s leading Avs defenders in this category. Given the context of his ice team, this is what you’d expect. Marc-Andre Bergeron, for example, led the Wild last year and I don’t think anyone would say he was one of the two or three best defenders on the Wild. But the context of his ice time helped him to put up a good number. The same is true, at least to some extent, of Liles. So far this season, Liles has taken a huge step back here. He’s ranked last among Avs defenders (the leader is at -2.41 per 60 minutes of EV play and Liles is at -38.21 so it’s not like it’s been a small step back). This suggests to me that his performance has been much worse this season than it has in the two previous years. Given I’ve only really started watching the Avs closely this season, his performance this year may be colouring my perception of the player a bit too much (I probably only watched about 7 or 8 Avs games last season).

In terms of his EV goals for and against while on the ice he’s at -3 so far this season, +3 in 2007-08 and -16 last season (although a lot of this was terrible goaltending behind him; with Liles on the ice the Avs had an .899 save percentage at EV even though Budaj was .908 on the year and Raycroft was .905 which I think is just bad luck for Liles). Those aren’t very good numbers considering he’s essentially getting the easiest minutes on the team.

Finally, how do his points look. I take your point that he does score some at EV. He had 18 points last year at EV which a lot more than nothing and that’s for sure. But he needs to be getting more considering his paycheck and how he’s being used. 18 points is only a tie for 44th in the league and there are other defenders that have a wider range of usefulness who had that many points, players like Dan Hamhuis and Jan Hejda. The year before last he only had 12 points at EV which was tied for 89th in the league. Another guy tied with him was Adam Foote and I think Foote does a lot of other things better than Liles. If they’re even in terms of offence, even though Liles has the much better starting situations, what does Liles really bring to the table at EV? That’s why I classify him as a PP specialist. He doesn’t really do anything all that well at EV.

But on the PP he is a decent option. I don’t think the difference this year with “Liles in” vs. “Liles out” really reflects the difference he makes though. Last season the Avs were at 15.7% and the year before they were at 14.6%, both bottom five performances, both with Liles as a regular member of the top unit. So he isn’t zooming a unit to the top of the league with his presence. In fact, they were bottom ten performances both times. And the Avs are due to bounce back from that 9.3% figure with Liles or without him. No one is that bad (at least not since the lockout, the worst PP% since the lockout was the 2006-07 Blackhawks at 11.8% and the Avalanche don’t strike me as the worst PP team in the last five years, so they’re probably good for at least 12.5% with Liles or without him over a full season). There just hasn’t been that much value created by the Avs on the PP in the last few seasons. I’m sure that Liles does create some, but it can’t be that much since the Avs, as a team, are near the bottom of the league and are only a few ticks above “rock bottom” in terms of how NHL teams have performed generally since the lockout.

Finally, Liles has the 30th highest cap hit of any defender in the league this year and I don’t really see an argument that he’d rank that highly among NHL defenders in any of the last three seasons. And I’m not so convinced that he would be top 60. I mean, where would you rank him on the Avs? Their best defender? Second best?

So yeah. Long response. I’d be impressed if you got through the whole thing but if you did, I hope that clarifies my position on Liles which can be summed up as, it’s not just the scoring chances.