The morning after: Maybe Anderson needs a rest
by Brett Shumway on Dec 16, 2009 6:13 PM MST
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Let me declare my position first: I believe in Peter Budaj. Maybe not as a bonafide #1, but at the very least as a rock solid back up. This being the case, I'd like to see him play more - not just to satisfy my loin burning love for Slovakian born net minders, but more out of a desire to see Anderson given a much needed rest now and again. So I decided to take a gander at some goal tender stats from last year comparing games played, with wins, and playoff success, to try to determine what all work and no rest makes a goalie, and a team. Chart after the jump... (PS - this is my first post, but I've come out guns a'blazin').
Here are the stats from last season for the leagues busiest masked men:
Goalie - Games Played - Wins - Place in Standings - Playoff Result
Kiprusoff - 76 - 45 - 5th in West - Lost in 1st round
Turco - 74 - 33 - 12th in West - Missed Playoffs
Backstrom - 71 - 37 - 9th in West - Missed Playoffs
Lundqvuist - 70 - 37 - 7th in Easy - Lost in 1st Round
Cam Ward - 68 - 39 - 8th in East - Lost East Finals
Bryzgalov - 65 - 26 - 13th in West - Missed Playoffs
Fleury - 62 - 35 - 4th in East - Cup Champs
Nabokov - 62 - 41 - 1st in League - Lost in 1st Round
Miller - 59 - 34 - 10th in East - Missed Playoffs
Vokoun - 59 - 26 - 9th in East - Missed Playoffs
I stopped at a minimum 59 games played, because less than that and the goalies typically had a timeshare happening, were injured, or were just not work horses.
These numbers may not be too revealing, but the one thing that sticks out to me is that the teams that work their goalies hard don't go far in the post season. Out of the entire league, only two teams that rely heavily on one goalie went far: Carolina (which had lady luck and momentum on their side) and of course Pittsburgh who won it all (which is decent). EVERYBODY else either missed the playoffs altogether, or were bumped off in the first round. And only 5 of the 16 teams that even made the playoffs were heavily favoring one goalie. And only 3 one goalie teams made it passed the first round : Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Vancouver.
So what does all this mean? Budaj. Budaj needs to play or we're screwed. Don't get me wrong, MAKING the playoffs would surpass anybody's expectations from 2 or 3 months ago and would send me happily skipping down the road, but (call me greedy) I think the bar has been raised. And it may have been raised solely by Andy's play. So please Sacco & friends, give the poor guy a break so he has something left in the tank come March, April, and (fingers crossed, voodoo dolls made, and soul sold to Beelzebub) maybe even June.
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Nice first post. But how did my welcome ladies get into the poll?
And with the 32nd pick in the 2009 NHL draft, the Red Wings select: Someone other than Ryan O'Reilly. LOL@Detoilet.
typos and bad math
Hey, you are welcome.
And wtf is a 80/30 split? I typed it and I don’t even know….
by Brett Shumway on Dec 16, 2009 4:44 PM MST up reply actions
Interesting point
But I wonder if you can blame lack of rest for Anderson’s performance against Washington last night? He’s just come off several days’ rest as he recuperated from his neck injury, and the Avs were playing the number one team in the league last night. I wouldn’t expect Coach Sacco to start anyone other than his #1 goaltender.
"You miss 100 percent of the shots you don't take" -- Wayne Gretzky
Agreed.
The Post is more “in general” concerning the unfolding of the season, as opposed to a reason for last night’s toilet flush of a game. But I hear ya.
by Brett Shumway on Dec 16, 2009 4:42 PM MST up reply actions
I chose 80/30 because I want my goalies giving 110%
I am so clever that sometimes I don't understand a single word of what I am saying.
by Pinchy The Lobster on Dec 16, 2009 5:28 PM MST reply actions
Giving 110%
Means giving 10% more than is humanly possible. If we’re gonna be successful, we need 100% of the guys giving 110%, 100% of the time.
The NHL Network coach is hilarious.
"I intend to kick your ass today." - Denver Broncos legend Tom Jackson
I’d prefer 110% of our guys giving 403% at least 81% of the time myself.
Bills fan? In Colorado? It's more likely than you think.
by UZ on Dec 17, 2009 4:45 AM MST up reply actions
60% of the time, it works every time.
I need a new sig, since i think I cursed ORLY by promoting him.
To me
That sounds like we get to play two goalies 10% of the time.
That sounds like an advantage I can get behind.
by eltharion_doa on Dec 17, 2009 2:09 AM MST up reply actions
I chose 70-30, but if you have a good tandem in net a 60-40 ratio might keep both guys a little happier, and would probably be better for the team if the made a long run.
The 2009-10 Avalanche: Have the wheels fallen off?
I'm The Canary - but I'm not cute nor cuddly, and I don't sing.
Last year omitted a different case, though
I’m speaking, of course, of Marty Brodeur. He routinely plays 70-75 games, and he’s never worn down in the postseason.
"I intend to kick your ass today." - Denver Broncos legend Tom Jackson
That’s why Doc Emrick never does Avs games!
Bills fan? In Colorado? It's more likely than you think.
by UZ on Dec 17, 2009 4:45 AM MST up reply actions
At least 80/20
70/30 is better. Budaj needs to play at least 20 games this season, 25 would be better.
Really? This is a subject why? Anderson had a stinker of a game, no doubt…but so did the entire team. You don’t play your back-up against top teams, unless there is an injury. No offense to the Budaj lovers out there…he has played EXTREMELY well, but right now he is the back-up. As stated above, Anderson is coming off extended rest, and against a number 1 team, the number 1 guy has to play.
Anyone can Monday morning quarterback…I could say that Liles (because he sucked against the Caps) should have been a healthy scratch…for instance. But, being one of the top defenders he has to play.
Hey, Matt Duchene didn’t really play well against Washington either, he should have been up in the press box.
It’s just that easy! The end
I don’t think the Caps game is a reason for the argument being made here. The simple fact is that Andy has been playing to much, especially with all these back-to-back games.
Never trust the lunch lady.
by Hardshell_Taco_del_Lowayne on Dec 17, 2009 7:23 AM MST up reply actions
Everything you said is right, but I don’t think anyone really said Andy shouldn’t have played. I agree, like him or not (which I do), Budaj really should see every 6th game or so unless Anderson is really hot or really bad. He’s almost started more games than in any other full season of his career, and we’re not quite half way through yet. I would think he’s gotta work his way into it. I’d say about 60-61 games for Andy and 21-22 for Booty would be about right so they’re good for the playoffs. You never know when some nut is gonna jump outta somewhere and bash Andy good.
I only saw Budaj play against the Pengs, has he been getting run a lot as well?
meh
by Jimmy_the_scumbag on Dec 17, 2009 7:39 AM MST up reply actions
Andy has started 30…Budaj 6
In Chicago, Huet has started 25…Niemi 7
Minnesota Backstrom 26…Harding 7
Vancouver Luongo 26…Raycroft 7
San Jose Nabakov 29…Greiss 5
Phoenix Bryzgalov 30…Labarbera 4
LA Kings Quick (first year as full time starter) 33…Ersberg 3
Buffalo Miller 28…Lalime 3
Pens Fluery 28…Johnson 6
Flames Kipper 29…McElhinney 4
Columbus Mason 27…Garon 7
Devils Brodeur 29…Danis 3
Rangers Lundqvist 28…Valiquette 5
Florida Vokun (even with the Ballard injury) 26…Clemmenson 9
etc…(That’s 14 of 30 teams including the Avs…Oilers, Flyers, Hurricanes, and Leafs have had injury issues…in the case of the Leafs it doesn’t really matter, but without injuries I’m guessing Khabibulin, Emery and Cam Ward would be on this list too)
I just dont see the argument. Outside of team with injured starters…or team like the Islanders with 2 bona fide starters (Biron, Rolly) or Boston (Thomas, Rask) or Washington (Theodore and Varlamov) or Tampa (Nittymaki and Smith) or St. Louis (with how Conklin and Mason have been playing) or Nashville (Ellis and Rinne) or even Montreal (Price, Halak)…the number 1 plays a bulk of the games on every team.
I pulled these comments from another post
Mike’s comment:
I also agree that Sacco needs to more closely approximate a #1/1a rotation with the goalies. I’d like Boots to get 1-out-of-4 starts just to keep Andy fresh. I understood and embraced the logic of riding the hot goalie at the beginning of the season, but it’s only a matter of time till the wear-and-tear take hold. Budaj’s a capable backup, let’s let he BE a backup.
Jibbles’ comment:
Also Anderson hasn’t really been "hot" as of late. Not that there should be a contraversy, Andy’s #1, but 1 in 4 now that he’s cooled off seems like a good load for Boods
.
I agree with both of these statements. I know you lack any confidence in Boods and are a DoA. However, if you look at Anderson’s states for November and December, Jibbles is right, he has cooled off:
November: .877 SA% 3.25 GAA
December: .899 SA% 3.16 GAA
I am one of the biggest DoB there is, but I do not believe there is any argument that Andy is the starter and should be. I believe Budaj is one of the more solid back-ups out there, he has been playing well, and it would benefit the team, Anderson, and Budaj to rotate him in. In November, you, yourself were saying you felt Budaj needed to be playing more because Andy looked like he was going to lose it.
Colorado Avalanche: Please excuse the mess while we are under construction.
And Budaj has been playing more…yes due to injury, but that kind of thing happens. And yes, I have complimented his play because it has been excellent. I have never once said I lack confidence in Budaj…as a starter, I do, I won’t deny that.
Also I’m getting tired of being bashed because I don’t bow down and worship the Budaj ground. I got the same thing with David Aebischer…and that ended well huh?
I made a point, and I backed it up with nearly half the teams in the NHL having comparable goalie stats. Not once did I say Budaj was horrible, or Anderson was great in those stats, or in my point. In fact, I said Budaj has been playing well (I believe I said EXTREMELY well), and Anderson had a stinker.
Thank you
The only point I seem to be missing from you
is your position on what the rotation should be. I think a 70-30 split seems pretty good. Where are you on this, since that is the subject of the post?
Colorado Avalanche: Please excuse the mess while we are under construction.
75-25
As noted, I am not a big Peter Budaj fan. Just so everyone knows...you know, so people don't have to point it out every post. That doesn't mean I want him to fail, as some have suggested...that is all
As I noted below, the pre-injury trend was not even close to 75-25. Andy was on pace for well over 75 games, not percent. That is why some of us are concerned.
Never trust the lunch lady.
by Hardshell_Taco_del_Lowayne on Dec 17, 2009 9:15 AM MST up reply actions
When Andy got hurt he had 26 starts and was lined up for more, including another b2b game set. Budaij had 2 starts. You can’t sustain that pace.
Never trust the lunch lady.
by Hardshell_Taco_del_Lowayne on Dec 17, 2009 8:40 AM MST up reply actions
you beat me to it that 30-6 ratio looks ok above, but there is no rotation, andy has been going until he gets hurt and then budaj is filling in, there should be some sort of set rotation especally with the condensed schedule.
Jesus Saves! Stewart gets the rebound and scores!
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Dec 17, 2009 9:04 AM MST up reply actions
I think that with as well as Anderson started the season, and as disinterested Budaj appeared at times in camp (according to reports), Sacco was just going to go with Anderson for as long as he could and didn’t seem to show much faith in Budaj. Anderson’s injury may be a blessing in disguise because it gave Budaj an opportunity to play and play well. It’s shown Sacco that he has a another tool to utilize: solid back up.
Hopefully, he recognizes this and implements a more steady rotation in which Budaj plays one of the games in back to back situations and gets an occasional start to spell Anderson. You could even take this one step further and play “matchups.” For example, I don’t think that Anderson has played particularly well against Vancouver and Minnesota, an Andy shut out against Vancouver in their first match up of the season withstanding. Budaj had a very good game in a 0-1 loss against Minnesota and has played well against both Minnesota and Vancouver over the past couple of seasons. I would like to see him get some more opportunities to start against those teams. I agree with those that have said that they would like to see a 70/30 type split (although, I accidentally clicked on the 60/40 pool).
The Avs have 6 games remaining in December, including two back to back situations. I don’t see any reason why Budaj shouldn’t have two of those starts in the back to back situations.
Sat, Dec 19 Columbus 9:00 PM
Mon, Dec 21 @ Minnesota 8:00 PM (Budaj)
Tue, Dec 22 Anaheim 10:00 PM
Sat, Dec 26 Dallas 9:00 PM
Wed, Dec 30 @ Ottawa 7:30 PM (Budaj)
Thu, Dec 31 @ Detroit 7:00 PM
by c0nquistad0rian on Dec 17, 2009 9:22 AM MST up reply actions 5 recs
and maybe three because Andy could use the rest, put him in against columbus. They are averaging a blowout against them every four games and I like the avs chances.
Jesus Saves! Stewart gets the rebound and scores!
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Dec 17, 2009 9:49 AM MST up reply actions
The only thing I would say about putting Anderson in this Saturday is that I think in doing so it lets Andy know that he is not looked at as the cause of the loss and it makes a clearer statement to the team that the team owns that one. Maybe I am offbase in that analysis – it kind of has that woman-touchy-feely reasoning.
Colorado Avalanche: Please excuse the mess while we are under construction.
Nah, I agree. It’s good to throw your starter right back into the next game after a tough loss, IMO. It shows confidence in him as the starter and gives him a chance to rebound. None of that “win and stay in/lose and you’re out” goalie carousel crap.
by c0nquistad0rian on Dec 17, 2009 11:55 AM MST up reply actions
Those numbers are close to other duos around the league, but if Andy hadn’t missed 4 games due to injury, I think it’s safe to say Budaj’s starts would be 4 less than they are, resulting in more of a disparity.
by Brett Shumway on Dec 17, 2009 1:24 PM MST up reply actions
Thanks for the post. I did my first “analytical” post earlier and I was crapping myself that all the old hands would point out glaring mistakes.
Instead, they all just laughed at an unfortunate turn of phrase I used about wanking!
It's hard to be a saint in this city
ha, you said wanking.
Jesus Saves! Stewart gets the rebound and scores!
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Dec 17, 2009 9:04 AM MST up reply actions
`For the record
I think a 75-25 split is probably the best case for a team. One guy is a clearly defined starter, and the other a clear backup, but it shows confidence in both and allows the #1 to rest.
I have no problems in a young team riding a hot goalie, as the Avs did early, but now 1 in 4 for Boods seems about right. This is about 20 starts for the season for Boods. considering the Avs play 16 back-to-backs, I think those are (usually) the right time to play the backup.
I think Boods should get 1 night of the back-to-backs and occasional spot duty. This leads to him starting:
Anaheim Tues Dec 22
@Ottawa Dec 30
@Carolina Jan 8th
@ Dallas Jan 29th.
Thats 4 starts in the next 16 games… or 1 in 4.
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Dec 17, 2009 12:23 PM MST reply actions
I see from the poll results that Joel Quennville hasn’t voted yet.
And with the 32nd pick in the 2009 NHL draft, the Red Wings select: Someone other than Ryan O'Reilly. LOL@Detoilet.
by Bob in Boulder on Dec 17, 2009 2:46 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
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