Greg Sherman has shared with the public that one of the major goals for this year is to evaluate the AV’s young talent.   My assumption is that this year is set up just for that, next season we can expect  see the second wave of young players with the goal figuring out which players will make up the core of the next generation, then putting together a Stanley Cup contender for 2011-2012.

Given that, I thought it would be fun to take a shot at the 25 and unders on the team with a ‘first term’ evaluation.  The idea to is identify which of the young NHLers are setting themselves up for a spot on that 2011-2012 team.

Avalanche First Term Evaluation – who will be here in for the cup run in 2011-2012?

Forward youngest to oldest:

Ryan O'Reilly   6' 0" 200 Feb 7, 1991  ORLY looks to be the closest thing to a lock for the team today – he is great defensively and is putting up points.

Matt Duchene   5' 11" 200 Jan 16, 1991 Boy Wonder looks pretty darn close to being a lock for the team, and is starting to put up numbers now.  A future big time star.

TJ Galiardi   6' 2" 190 Apr 22, 1988  This TJ looks like the real one – he contributes toughness, forechecking and the occasional point.  TJ could be the replacement for Stephen Yelle we have been looking for.

Chris Stewart   6' 2" 228 Oct 30, 1987 Stewart has been consistently inconsistent.  If that really is chemistry with Duchene we are seeing, it will be great for the Avalanche and Stewart.   At this time I would say it is 50/50 if he will make the cut.

Wojtek Wolski   6' 3" 210 Feb 24, 1986 Is he the Baron or the Barren?  Given the potential and inconsistency, I think some team may offer a nice package in trade and he will be gone, unless he becomes the Baron full time.

TJ Hensick 5’ 10” 185 Dec 10, 1985 Don’t expect TJ to be in the system  after this season. Color him gone.

Paul Stastny "A"  6' 0" 205 Dec 27, 1985 SOS has the contract that will keep him here in 2011-2012.  Almost a point a game – you may argue with the contract, but write his name in ink.

David Jones   6' 2" 210 Aug 10, 1984 Davey was breaking out this season, prior to his injury.  Based on his performance to date I would expect to see him on the contender.  Some players have several years of bad luck with injuries, and then go on to long healthy careers.  Let’s hope Jones is one of those players.

Cody McLeod   6' 2" 210 Jun 26, 1984 Cody has a decent chance of sticking around – he brings the grit a contender needs.  Good third/fourth line player.

Summary – forwards likely to make the 2011-2012 team:  O’Reilly, Duchene, Galiardi, Stastny, Jones, McCloud

Up in the air: Stewart, Wolski

Defense:

 Ryan Wilson   6' 1" 207 Feb 3, 1987 Could become the defensive Ryan Smyth – looks like a strong contender for the 2011-2012 contenders as a 3-6 defenseman.

Kyle Cumiskey   5' 10" 185 Dec 2, 1986 This Kyle may make it  – he has all the skills, and is getting better defensively.  His question mark is durability.

Kyle Quincey   6' 2" 207 Aug 12, 1985 This Kyle looks like a good pick up – probably a good fit as a 2-4 defenseman. 

Summary –defense likely to make the 2011-2012 team:  Wilson, Quincey

Up in the air: Cuminskey

Goaltender – oh yeah that position – Just keep your fingers crossed that Andy is the real deal. 

All in all  not a bad start on rebuilding (oops – a player evaluation season) – 6 to 8 forwards and 2-3 defensemen already looking like they have ‘IT’.

The future:

So where do the AVs go in 2010-2011 in the second (and hopefully last) year of ‘player evaluation’ ?

On defense look for  2-4 NHLers from the system – as Shattenkirk, Cohen, Gaunce, Chouinard, Holos, Elliott, Barrie make up a deep talent pool.  The question is not depth; it is will #1 and #2 defensemen emerge from the talent pool.   The potential is there, time will tell.

Forward depth is a bit thinner, but with decent scoring on the from this year’s young guns, the key need seems to be a big time scoring winger (a Hossa, Kovalchuk like talent) and some depth.  Don’t expect to see one of those signed, not until the summer of 2001 are the earliest.  Expect the Avalanche to give their young talent another year for evaluation.  While apparently not as deep as the defensive prospects, prospects like Mercier, Yip, Stoa, Tessier, Malone could get their NHL auditions next season. 

Goal, well let us not go there yet – too many prospects with uncertain futures.