Tavares Tuesday
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Apr 14, 2009 6:00 AM MDT
Email
Print
Tonight's the night, 8pm eastern on Vs (or TSN for you Canadians). After an agonizing 48 hours, the Avalanche will FINALLY learn their draft fate (if Pierre Lacroix hasn't already traded the pick to Tampa for Vinny Lecavalier, that is). I think MHH readers are versed enough in the draft lottery to know how tonight will go - the Avs will either draft 1st, 3rd or 4th depending on how things shape up tonight.
But how does the lottery really work? As we've done all year, let's go to that terrific resource NHLSCAP.com:
Fourteen balls, numbered 1-14, are placed in a lottery machine and four are drawn, forming a series of numbers. A probability chart, created by Bortz & Company, divides the possible combinations among the 14 participating clubs. The four-digit series that results from the balls drawn are be compared to the probability chart to determine the team to which that combination has been assigned.
WOW. That sounds so incredibly...dull. I just hope there's no Matlock reruns on at the same time or I might be tempted to switch over. I need to sneak a peak at that probability chart.
There are 1,001 numerical combinations possible, with one combination eliminated to make the odds fair; if the eliminated combination is drawn (a 0.1% probability), the drawing is immediately re-done.
My aching head. There's no better way to do this?
Seriously, am I the only one who thinks the NHL Lottery is kind of a big waste of time? I mean, someone has to generate a probability chart with 1,001 combinations just so that ONE TEAM can move up 5 spots in the draft? Why bother? Does it really make sense that Colorado can jump to 1st overall but can't jump to 2nd? Don't they make probability charts that can handle more than one team moving up?
My biggest gripe about the lottery is that it fails to really do what it's supposed to do - keep teams from tanking. The Islanders, Lightning and Avalanche were a combined 4-20-6 over their final 10 games. The Avs lost successive home games by a combined score of 15-2. New York topped that with a 15-1 walloping of their own in back-to-back. And certainly the Islanders were doing their best to win when they sent Brendan Witt out in the shootout. From the little I saw of the Lightning, you could probably make a case that they were actually trying to win most nights. A lot of good THAT did...
If you really want to stop tanking, give the first overall pick to the highest-ranking team to miss the playoffs and then move down from there. Reward the teams that make a legitimate effort to win but fall just short of all that yummy playoff revenue. Really, don't the Panthers - a team that could have traded Bouwmeester but held on to him to make a playoff run - deserve Tavares more than one of the 5 sacks of crap in the running now? Colorado, Tampa and New York would have to rebuild with middle-round picks - no quick fixes for you.
That will never happen, of course, so we'll continue to see teams roll over and play dead in order to improve their chances on that probability chart. I can barely contain my excitement.
60 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Well
I have open mancrushes on two players in this draft : Hedman, and Evander Kane. I really should say three with Hedman occupying the top two spots, but I still love both. I have no idea why I’m not all over the Tavares/Duchene bandwagons.
by A.J. Haefele on Apr 14, 2009 6:59 AM MDT up reply actions
I’ve been pretty high on Duchene, but the more I hear about Kane the more excited I get. The prospect of having Kane & Stewart as a one-two punch in a lineup is intriguing
Hyphens cause writers more trouble than any other form of punctuation, except perhaps commas.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Apr 14, 2009 7:09 AM MDT up reply actions
I’m with Bubblegum on those two. Altitude showed short interviews with the top prospects and I was really impressed with Kane. (Sorry, but did Tavares appear braindead or what?)
he did
Hyphens cause writers more trouble than any other form of punctuation, except perhaps commas.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Apr 14, 2009 7:10 AM MDT up reply actions
nonononono.
I think Kane will be a semi bust. He’s skilled and has run over smaller guys fr years in major junior, but I am wary his game will translate to the NHL well, where everyone is big. the whole longer term prospect thing about Kane is a red flag too.
I want Duchene or Taveras. I’d take Cowen with the 4th probably if they were gone. Maybe MSP, but I don’t know his game well.
MSP
is the real sleeper in this for me. I know nothing about him, but everybody seems to be really high on him. Personally, I don’t want to have anything to do with him because trying to spell that name would dwarf this past season’s struggles with Tjarnqvist (did I get that right?).
by A.J. Haefele on Apr 14, 2009 8:33 AM MDT up reply actions
On Cowen
I don’t think he’ll be in the top 5, which kinda sucks for him. He was a lock for third overall until his knee injury.
There’s just so many skilled players this year. I think Kane will be going 4th.
If we end up in 4th and can’t get Duchene, I’d prefer Kane over everyone else.
And do any of you guys think any team is going to be willing to trade down in the draft this year?
2008-2009 Avalanche: It's like watching a car crash.
if the lightning win the lottery, they will try to trade with NYI. i could see some jumbling between 4-7 too.
Yeah
Right after I asked that, I read a couple stories about Burke wanting to trade up depending on who wins the lottery.
2008-2009 Avalanche: It's like watching a car crash.
Toronto
Does Toronto even have enough to trade up to #1? I don’t think they do. I think Burke is talking to get himself in the papers.
Even though I realize that’s completely out of character for him.
by Jibblescribbits on Apr 14, 2009 5:08 PM MDT up reply actions
Is there some sort of total douchebag asshole in the top ten that burke wants?
Get rid of the loser point
08-09 Avs- can we decline the penalty?
Burke's past trades
Show he may work some magic to go up to higher picks(5-2) and could even try to get Isles high and sign away Tavares from there.
He does have a 7th overall to wave around in a very deep draft year after all. Combine that with various prospects(Bozak comes to mind) and willing to take on cap baggage.
They also could give away Schenn, but I doubt that’ll happen since he seems like a major cog in the team’s makeup going forward.
I say Burke will be able to jump up to 3-6, but no higher.
And I know Avs are in 3rd, but I can Lacroix being an idiot and giving away Duchene for pretty much nothing.
2008-2009 Avalanche: It's like watching a car crash.
I, for one, am PUMPED for tonight.
I’m hoping for an exciting live thread where we all wait with baited breaths to watch the 1,001 combinations play out before our very eyes.
we’ll have a live thread going tonight. I forgot that I have to work until 9, so I guess I won’t be able to watch the “excitement” unfold live.
Hyphens cause writers more trouble than any other form of punctuation, except perhaps commas.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Apr 14, 2009 7:12 AM MDT up reply actions
Gaaahhh
stupid soccer game. I’ll be warming up on a soccer pitch. Even if I played the later game we don’t have Vs at work.
by Jibblescribbits on Apr 14, 2009 8:29 AM MDT up reply actions
I'll be at a track meet
so I’ll just have to read about it later…maybe even tomorrow.
MHH: Like the Avs organization, we’ve now officially lost our minds.
I'm The Canary - but I'm not cute nor cuddly, and I don't sing.
by Americanario on Apr 14, 2009 12:31 PM MDT up reply actions
I'll be doing nothing at all
Also known as ‘studying’.
I MAY tune in if I get bored and need something to put me to sleep.
2008-2009 Avalanche: It's like watching a car crash.
that’s what Jori says and what I want, so yes. :)
the best comparison I’ve hear for him is Modano reborn. I always wanted Modano in an Avs uni….
I have no problem with Duchene.
I just have a mancrush on Kane. That’s all. I think Duchene has definite star potential.
by A.J. Haefele on Apr 14, 2009 8:39 AM MDT up reply actions
Lottery method
They should change it to shaking a bag of Skittles and pouring out one Skittle. The team color closest to the Skittle wins. If the administrator pours more than Skittle with poor pour control he will be lashed by Bettman and the first pick will go to the Penguins.
Never trust the lunch lady.
by Hardshell_Taco_del_Lowayne on Apr 14, 2009 7:11 AM MDT reply actions
I dunno if you've ever read the M&M Tournament story
it’s pretty famous here on the internets, but that’s how I think the lottery should be decided. Have an M&M with each team’s logo on it and have this guy duke it out to find the ultimate winner.
by A.J. Haefele on Apr 14, 2009 8:30 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
I never would’ve thought that if numerologists need a job, they look to the NHL. Wonder what the internship opportunities are there.
One down, three to go
by FiveJeffFingerDiscount on Apr 14, 2009 7:41 AM MDT reply actions
nice to have this to look forward to
as I roll though day 2 in the hospital (yes, irony, thedoctor in the hospital). There’s even vs. here!
everything okay?
Hyphens cause writers more trouble than any other form of punctuation, except perhaps commas.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Apr 14, 2009 8:46 AM MDT up reply actions
yeah, i feel fine. I wasn’t early monday morning, when I was in crazy pain. Now they’re doing bajilions of tests to try and figure the pain and and some strange blood work out. they ruled out brains lesions, i guess that’s a plus.
really, i just want to get back home and back to work at this point.
Crud dude. I certainly hope it is nothing and you are OK.
MHH: Shagging Dater one contributor at a time.
by Bob in Boulder on Apr 14, 2009 9:57 AM MDT up reply actions 3 recs
+ infinity to this
Hyphens cause writers more trouble than any other form of punctuation, except perhaps commas.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Apr 14, 2009 10:06 AM MDT up reply actions
thanks guys
they just had a hit on a test, looks like diabetes insipidus, which has nothing to do with normal diabetes and is easily treatable. so yay.
by thedoctor on Apr 14, 2009 11:13 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Good to hear. How soon can we start making jokes about sugar, weight gain, and stuff? Two days? Three?
2008-2009 Colorado Avalanche: Dry Humping Mediocrity
Get a candy company
To make 1,001 bits of candy, in the ratio of the random chances. Then get 100 pre-schoolers to eat all the candy.
The last bit of candy remaining will have the logo of the #1 pick.
There's Gotta Be a Better Way
Can’t they just have 14 ping-pong balls, each with a different logo on them? That would seem to make more sense, but what do I know? I’m sure some guy with a Ph.D. came up with this system.
Or someone was drunk, which would explain why they use the ping-pong balls.
"I will make nachos and sit and watch draft guy. nacho and cola. This gon be crazy. We could even move down in draft and get like a hole nother team guy."
--Horvil Tiki
nope
that would mean that every team has an equal chance.
Of course they could write a computer program in ~1/2 hour, but where’s the drama of white balls falling out of a hopper?
by Jibblescribbits on Apr 14, 2009 9:26 AM MDT up reply actions
My bad
What I meant was have 100 ping pong balls (or whatever number you need to make it come out even) and have each team get a number a balls in accordance with its percentage.
"I will make nachos and sit and watch draft guy. nacho and cola. This gon be crazy. We could even move down in draft and get like a hole nother team guy."
--Horvil Tiki
You know
What I meant was have 100 ping pong balls (or whatever number you need to make it come out even) and have each team get a number a balls in accordance with its percentage.
I was thinking "Well that would be an incredibly inefficient way to pick the winner, since you’d need 1,000 ping pong balls and print the logo of every team on each one.
But dropping 14 balls from a hopper isn’t all that more efficient.
by Jibblescribbits on Apr 14, 2009 9:40 AM MDT up reply actions
It's 4 balls that are dropped
And every ball is numbered 1-14.
And yes, it’s mindbogglingly inefficient.
2008-2009 Avalanche: It's like watching a car crash.
I'm not even mildly interested in watching this
I only care about draft day, that’s the day we find out if PL is going to draft smart, or will he trade the pick away for a bucket of pucks.
2008-2009 Avalanche: It's like watching a car crash.
To which pensblog can reply?
MHH: Shagging Dater one contributor at a time.
by Bob in Boulder on Apr 14, 2009 3:36 PM MDT up reply actions
Because I am a loser
Anyone know where I could watch the draft lottery live online?
MHH: Shagging Dater one contributor at a time.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
