The Avalanche are no longer on a vector for Victor. After tonight's action, the bottom three spots are set. Colorado is going to finish 28th and will either draft 1st, 3rd or 4th pending the results of next Tuesday's lottery. That means it is unlikely that the Avalanche will land Victor Hedman, although they will certainly land a very good forward.
There will be 5 teams with a chance at the first overall pick - likely John Tavares. Four of those teams are listed above. The 5th team will either be Phoenix (as I type this, they are up 3-0 on San Jose), Los Angeles or Toronto. Toronto is a long shot, though. They need to lose their final game and have the Kings and Coyotes win their remaining games. Both Phoenix and LA are in progress right now. IF those games finish as they are right now (Phoenix winning, LA losing), the Kings will own their destiny - if they lose tonight and on Saturday, they'll be the 5th and final Tavares Tanker. [UPDATE: They did, so LA is now in the driver's seat]
The Avalanche will have a 14.2% chance at the 1st pick, a 56.1% at the 3rd pick and a 29.7% chance at the 4th. Statistically speaking, the probability is that the Avs will stay at #3 (where Jori and I both think they'll select Matt Duchene).