If I was GM for the offseason
by Drakenlot on Jun 17, 2009 3:19 PM MDT
16 comments
After seeing what the peeps over at Pension Plan Puppets have going, I figured I'll see what I can do with the Avalanche if I was GM for the off-season.
About all salary numbers are from NHLNumbers, so blame them if the numbers are off. I also used players' salary from last year where available since I know I'm terrible at negotiating.
Another thing I won't attempt are trades, since I suck at speculating them. I have a terrible time even doing trades in any sports video game.
Forwards
Smyth ($6.5) / Stastny ($6.60) / Hejduk ($4.00)
Wolski ($3.10) / Duchene ($1.25) / Svatos ($2.35)
Galiardi ($0.59) / Hensick ($0.85) / Stewart ($0.85)
McLeod ($0.54) / Guite ($0.50) / Tucker ($2.30)
Extras:
McCormick ($0.53), Jones ($0.55)
AHL: Dupuis, Durno, Hendricks, Smith, Boulerice, Stoa (Many of these guys could crack the roster)
Trade Bait:
Tucker - Either for a bag of pucks, or bought out if PlayItAgain Sports doesn't want him.
Svatos - If he can be packaged off somewhere with another player for some younger guys.
Let Go:
Arnason - No shit, Sherlock.
Willsie - I'm not too fond of the time we had with him.
Laperriere - No room unfortunately, but could be signed if Tucker is bought out.
Sakic - I don't see how he can fit in unless it's at a vastly reduced price.
Forward Total: $29.43 M, including McC and Jones.
~$28.50 M, I think with Tucker being bought out.
Comments: I'm really sad Sakic and Lappy don't seem to fit in.
Also, it's pretty much the same team as last year, with the exception of Duchene. I really think he's capable of breaking into the NHL next year, especially if this is his competion.
--------------------------------------------------
Defence
Hannan ($4.50) / Liles ($4.13)
Foote ($3.25) / [Place an extra guy here]
Clark ($3.50) / Salei ($3.28)
Extras:
Cumiskey ($0.50), MacKenzie ($0.48), Vernace ($0.50)
I'd place the younger guys with Footer since he can provide some vet knowledge for them.
AHL: Macias, Peltier
Trade Bait:
Clark - Maybe packaged with Svats.
Salei - Same as Clark.
Let Go:
O'Neill - Dunno about him, plus we have plenty of potential D.
Nycholat - Maybe to fill in alongside Foote, but not much cap space for that.
Defence Total: $20.14 M, including the three extras
--------------------------------------------------
Goalies
Budaj ($0.8)
Listed by preference:
Gustavsson (~$2.00)* My guess for his contract
Niittymaki ($1.50)
Labarbera ($0.85)
AHL: Weiman, Bacashihua
Let Go:
Raycroft - No-brainer.
Goalies Total: $2.80 M with Gustav
$2.30 M with Niittymaki
$1.65 M with Labarbera
Comments: Even if there's some fairly capable pickings in the FA market, there's not much cap room to jam in a high-priced goalie. I'd say $2 - 2.5 mil is as high as we can go.
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Max Grand Total: $52.37 M, with Tucker still here, and Gustav signed.
Preferred Grand Total: $51.40, that's with Tucker bought out and Gustav brought in.
That would leave me with a bit of wiggle room depending on salary increases and next year's cap. I've read somewhere it's expected around $55 M.
Now feel free to rip my list apart.
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I don’t think that Duchene will be with us all the way thru next year… Jori has tried to explain this to me, but im pretty thick and can’t quite grasp the OHL-NHL 10 game rule. Also, I don’t see Stoa on your list. He may be ready for a call up right away.
I feel like there isn’t much wiggle room in the av’s situation. Many of my changes would be the same as yours. re-sign guite, lappy. buy out tucker and take the cap hit. make sure to sign Mercier and Yip to two-way contracts, even tho they will probably spend time in Lake Erie… maybe they will blow everyone away at camp.
I would love to shred some salary, including dangling svats, hensick, and maybe clark for a goalie [is harding still available?].
really the biggest thing i would do as a GM would be to force my coaches to adopt decent systems and be resigned to the basic same personnel. start teaching our young guys decent habits, have them learn from the veterans, and just wait for some contracts to be up.
Sippin' PBR on a Colorado game day...
1)Duchene 2)Stoa 3)Harding
1) The rule I think is an OHL player can play 9 games in the NHL before his contract kicks in. So many times the 9 games are used as an extended trial period to see if he works with the NHL squad in real games.
Schenn is one rookie who made the jump fairly easily last year. I still feel Duchene has the skill to be able to make the jump right away.
2) I have Stoa starting in the AHL, but he would definitely be the first call-up.
3) I didn’t see Harding on any free-agent lists, but it could have been because I only looked at goalies within the 2.5 and less price range.
And also, I’m not optimistic about this coming season. I’m close to raising the banners for F4F / H2H (Failing for Fowler, Highway to Hall)
2008-2009 Avalanche: It's like watching a car crash.
Harding
Harding is a Restricted Free Agent and so is Lehtonen from Atlanta. We can offer these two goalies contracts and their respective teams can match them if they wish. The only reason I put Lehtonen on this thread is because Atlanta has two good goalies in the system and may wish to let him go if the price is too high. I think the compensation for a RFA is a couple of draft picks.
by Bringbackboone on Jun 21, 2009 1:06 PM MDT up reply actions
good post
I think that’s pretty close to reality without trades. The only nitpicks I would have is Duchene will sign for closer to a 3m cap hit with bonuses, and Jones will definitely be playing to start the year.
With trades, it’s a good bet Svatos is gone, and that adds Harding and Pavelec to the list of potential goalies. I sure would love Harding…especially if they screw up and leave him open to a cheap offer sheet!
Hmm
Duchene making 3 mil sounds better the more I think of it. But even with that, it is doable with my scheme.
2008-2009 Avalanche: It's like watching a car crash.
yep, it is.
I see your list of UFA goalies, what are your thoughts on Garon or Anderson? I have both higher on my want list than Nitty or Labs…
I was contemplating Garon over Labs for awhile,
But I’m thinking he’ll sign with the Pens again. That’s pretty much the only reason I went with Labs.
And I completely missed Anderson. Wow. He would be above Labs I guess.
I went with Niitiimaki since I think the Flyers will go with another goalie backing Emery.
2008-2009 Avalanche: It's like watching a car crash.
Not interested in Biron or is he out of the price-range?
2008-2009 Colorado Avalanche: Dry Humping Mediocrity
he’s an interesting guy to me. I think he’s the cream of the “standard” UFA crop, but word is he wants 5m per year, which is too much by far. He’s got a problem too in that there’s like only 1-3 slots left for a starter open. There won’t be much of a bidding war for his services.
If you could get him for about what he made last year, great, let’s do it — but I feel like he may end up in Russia when he doesn’t get offers like he wants.
Out of range
He made 3 mil last year and looking for a raise of some sort, which is above my maximum of 2.5 mil.
2008-2009 Avalanche: It's like watching a car crash.
Interesting post
I agree with much of it. Sure would be nice if we could unload some of the following salary and/or dead weight (and as I’ve said, I’d package Wolski in a heart beat if I had to do it to get it done):
Hannan
Clark
Tucker
Hensick
The first two because they are grossly overpaid, the third because he is grossly overpaid and sucks even more than the first two, and the fourth just because he sucks. I’m done with Hensick. I’ve seen enough of him to know that he’ll never be worth much in this league. Probably a career AHL star who can’t work hard enough for the bigs. I still like the potential in Jones way more than in Hensick. Injuries are his main bugaboo.
And of course I’d buy out Tucker and keep Lappy around. But maybe they’ve already f’d that one up?
MHH: Shagging Dater one contributor at a time.
You have the wrong numbers listed. Keep in mind that the cap hit is the average amount of a player’s salary and not his salary for that current year. If you’re using NHLnumbers.com, you should be using the numbers from the “cap number” column and not those for the 2009-10 season.
As was mentioned and something that could be guestimated from reviewing the cap numbers that I posted of other 3rd overall picks for the past five years. the 3rd overall pick could likely have a number between $2.8-2.9 million.
Your estimated cap numbers for restricted free agents Jones, McCormick, Cumiskey, Vernace, Budaj are also off.
A couple of other points that I made in DDC’s 2009-10 Avalanche thread:
Restricted Free Agents Jones, McLeod, McCormick, Verance, Cumiskey, and Budaj have estimated salaries based on the minimum qualifying offer that the team must make to retain their rights. These numbers are not absolute; the team could choose to walk away from the players. Offer sheets could be made by other teams. Or, the team may even offer any of these players more than the minimum offer.
To that end, Peter Budaj made $800k last year, so his minimum qualifying offer only has to be 105% ($840k) and not the 110% or $880k DDC posted.
Qualifying Offers
The current team must extend a "qualifying offer" to a restricted free agent to retain negotiating rights to that player.
Players who earned less than $660,000 in the previous season must be offered 110 percent of last season’s salary. Players making up to $1 million must be offered 105 percent. Players making over $1 million must be offered 100 percent.
If the qualifying offer is not made, the player becomes an unrestricted free agent.
If the player rejects a qualifying offer, he remains a restricted free agent.http://proicehockey.about.com/od/nhlfreeagents/a/nhl_free_agents_2.htm
Based on the cap numbers that I posted of previous top 5 picks, I do agree that whoever (Duchene?) the Avs select with the third overall pick will have a cap number around $2.8-2.9 million. I was actually using an estimate of $2.85 million :)
Lastly, DDC used an estimated upper limit of $56 million. The upper limit this year was $56.7 million and it has not yet been announced what the 2009-10 upper limit will be. Based on this estimation, DDC is right that the Avs are not as hard up against the cap as some other teams out there. But with those estimations, adding the salaries of a legitimate number one goaltender and a top six forward (or a top 3 draft pick) and fleshing out the rest of the roster (the minimum player salary for 2009-10 is increasing from $475k to $500k http://www.nhlscap.com/cap_faq.htm#max_min) could put the team very close to the upper limit.
But, that is not to say that management will want to spend all the way upto the upper limit, especially on a rebuilding team. Unless of course they believe that that team can turn things around and rebuild in one year a la the 2006-7 Flyers to the 2007-8 Flyers. But, I don’t think that any of us are fooling ourselves into thinking that this Avs team is making bold enough moves to have that quick of a turn around.
by c0nquistad0rian on Jun 21, 2009 10:09 PM MDT reply actions
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