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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Paul Who? Duchene Moves In On Son Of Stastny's Territory

Duchene_medium

One of the things I noticed during the Draft over the weekend was the buzz surrounding the future of Matt Duchene with the Avalanche.  Not just that he's probably going to become a top player really quickly, but that's he's going to be the next "face of the franchise" and the heir apparent to Super Joe's captaincy

Avalanche fans, get to know this kid really well because he is now the heir apparent to the captaincy of the franchise.

And from what nearly every draft observer has said the Avs now have a crown jewel from which to build around.

Whatever happened to Paul Stastny?

Honestly, the complete lack of Stastny mentions in nearly everything I've read about the Avalanche picking Duchene in the draft is pretty startling.  Stastny was touted as THE next top center for the Avs ever since he set foot on the ice for the first time in 2006-07 and finished second in the Calder voting.  But despite his impressive sophomore showing of 71 points in 66 games, that shortened season and last year's disappointing (and underachieving), injury-shortened performance seems to have vastly diminished the Stastny buzz.

Enter Duchene, the highest pick for the Avalanche franchise since they were the Quebec Nordiques.  His combination of offensive and defensive skills, his superb skating, and his affable, out-going personality (along with his sure-thing scouting reports) have made him the only center on anyone's radar.  And with Joe Sakic either retiring this summer or next, the talk of Duchene as the next Avalanche leader is almost constant:

But whether Sakic decides to go one more round on the Zamboni shouldn’t matter, because Duchene will eventually become the face of this franchise.

(Only non-hockey writers would write something as cringe-worthy as "go one more round on the Zamboni".  Ugh.)

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What seems to be forgotten is that Paul Stastny has already established himself as a superb two-way center, with skills at both ends of the ice.  While his style of play (and his skating) are less flashy and more based on sound positioning rather than uncanny agility and super speed, he's still one of the best centers in the NHL right now.  Unfortunately, he's injury-prone, or appears to be.  And also working against him is his quiet, kid-like demeanor (not to mention his goofy toothless grin and his old-school wooden stick).  Duchene seems more media-friendly from the get-go, while Stastny still looks (and talks) like somebody's kid brother (or a famous player's son) than a mature team leader.  Is that Stastny's fault?  Not a chance.  But it definitely doesn't help create that all-so-important media buzz that puts butts in seats and sells season tickets.

No doubt about it, if Duchene doesn't flame out and Stastny can stay healthy, the Avs will have a one-two punch of two-way centers to build some serious success around in the coming years.  The Sakic/Forsberg era that brought two Stanley Cups and a ton of division titles is over, but the Duchene/Stastny era has just begun.  We hope.

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Unfortunately, he’s injury-prone, or appears to be

The whole broken foot thing could’ve happened to anyone…

I personally think Stastny will be the next face of the franchise, with Duchene being the next personality (like Roy).

Stastny is coming across a lot more professional, like Joe before him.

by Tommelot on Jun 30, 2009 2:37 PM MDT reply actions  

Yeah, he definitely has the “be quiet and lead by example” thing down already. Now if he could just get some teammates that were willing to follow his lead.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Jun 30, 2009 2:39 PM MDT up reply actions  

Let’s see what Duchene has at this level before dubbing him the next Captain. And really, if the Avs hold on to Smyth, who is to see he isn’t next in line. Big contract or no…at least the guy leaves it out there on the ice every night, when he isn’t getting his face slammed into the partition anyway.

And of course, the point of this article and SOS…can never forget him. Remember, both of his big injuries were on freak blocked shots (and the other was the appendix)…so let’s see what happens this year before dubbing him injury prone

by chiavsfan on Jun 30, 2009 2:39 PM MDT reply actions  

There’s no doubt about it in my mind that Ryan Smyth will be the next captain if he’s still on the team this year and/or next. Neither Stastny nor Duchene will be wearing the C in the immediate future.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Jun 30, 2009 2:41 PM MDT up reply actions  

I certainly hope not. I always feel it looks unprofessional to give relative rookies a ‘C’. It must also create a weird locker-room atmosphere where guys like Footer and Smyth would have to sit and listen to Stazzer & Duchene (What’s his nickname anyways? (I forget)).

by Tommelot on Jun 30, 2009 3:07 PM MDT up reply actions  

Well it seems to be the way things are going these days…and with none too bad results

Crosby just won a Stanley Cup
Toews brought his team to the WCF

I still say Smyth is next in line if he is on the team…then Stats

by chiavsfan on Jun 30, 2009 6:38 PM MDT up reply actions  

My vote is for Foote. If he can play without head issues next year.

Get rid of the loser point

08-09 Avs- can we decline the penalty?

by TheRed on Jul 1, 2009 1:16 AM MDT up reply actions  

Well for what it’s worth Kiszla has already forgotten about….ummm… god what’s his name. Used to wear #19….Clutch….you know, the guy with the wrist shot….

The 2008-2009 Colorado Avalanche: Slumpbusters

by Jibblescribbits on Jun 30, 2009 3:08 PM MDT reply actions  

John something?

The guy formerly known as "Where is Bob Hartley?". Because it's never going to happen. And no one knows where he is.

by Pinchy The Lobster on Jun 30, 2009 3:09 PM MDT up reply actions  

yeah that's it

John Slapstick, or something like that

The 2008-2009 Colorado Avalanche: Slumpbusters

by Jibblescribbits on Jun 30, 2009 3:11 PM MDT up reply actions  

nice article

Hyphens cause writers more trouble than any other form of punctuation, except perhaps commas.

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jun 30, 2009 3:11 PM MDT reply actions  

Nice blog.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Jun 30, 2009 8:38 PM MDT up reply actions  

that’s what she said

Hyphens cause writers more trouble than any other form of punctuation, except perhaps commas.

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jun 30, 2009 8:50 PM MDT up reply actions  

That’s what I told her.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Jul 1, 2009 5:44 AM MDT up reply actions  

Interesting article by The Hockey News. On the draft thread, a few of us were looking at Klingberg who went to Atlanta after we took O’Reilly. Imagine what him and Duchene could have done on our 2nd line. Here’s the article. http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/27013-The-Hot-List-Draft-aftermath.html

Oh, and Kennedy likes who we drafted for goaltenders. If it matters.

by Bringbackboone on Jun 30, 2009 8:03 PM MDT reply actions  

Which is why I nearly had a fit when we passed Klingenberg over.

Maybe we can swap Clark/Hannan/Svatos/Hensuck/Elliott/Barrie/Young or some combination thereof for Pavelec/Lehtonen/Klingenberg or some combination thereof.

Radar had better be a certified top six rock star or I may never get over this!

by Hopfenkopf on Jun 30, 2009 9:41 PM MDT up reply actions  

he’s really not that sort by all accounts. he’s like sami pahlsson + leadership.

by thedoctor on Jun 30, 2009 10:56 PM MDT up reply actions  

Then I may have to resign myself to never getting over this. Unless, of course, we can pull off the proposed trade that I mention above, which, with the application of reasonable self interest and thought on both sides, could easily occur and benefit both sides.

Given those criteria, I should go buy a Powerball ticket – my chances would be better!

by Hopfenkopf on Jun 30, 2009 11:53 PM MDT up reply actions  

I can’t see this article. Can someone hook me up with a copy + paste, or at least summarize it for me?

by c0nquistad0rian on Jul 1, 2009 10:24 AM MDT up reply actions  

Here it is

It was a magical draft weekend in Montreal, hanging with THN correspondents on Rue Stanley, doing an Orland Kurtenblog radio interview from a parking lot at one in the morning and seeing at least a handful of important hockey people every time I got off the elevator in our hotel. But let’s get to the picks, shall we? As a bonus, the Canadian League import draft took place Tuesday, as well.

1. John Tavares, C – London Knights (OHL): Believe it or not, Tavares actually did not know whether the Isles would pick him first overall and even sweated the moment a little. Nonetheless, the Ontario League’s all-time leading goal-scorer will be a treasure for long-suffering Isles fans. Drafted first overall by the New York Islanders in 2009.

2. Carl Klingberg, LW – Frolunda Jr. (Swe.): Atlanta will not be an easy team to play in the future, as both Klingberg and first round pick Evander Kane know how to punish with extreme prejudice. And for the young Swede, coming over to the smaller-sized North American rinks will only improve his results.

"It fits me good," Klingberg said. "I’m a very North American player in style – I’m always looking for the closest way to the net."

His physicality is a calling card, but skating and net play are right up there, too. Something of a mercenary this season, Klingberg played for three different teams in three different circuits – junior hockey and the top two Swedish Elite League rungs. The youngster already knows where he would like to develop next year.

"My expectation is to play Elite League 2," Klingberg said. "But my goal is to play Elite League 1."

As for coming to a non-traditional hockey market in Atlanta, Klingberg is very positive about his future home, even if his knowledge base is shallow.

"I know it’s very warm in June, July," he said. "That will be good for me, because I have a very weak tan." Drafted 34th overall by Atlanta in 2009.

3. Jared Cowen, D – Spokane Chiefs (WHL): With his knee being rehabbed, Cowen appears to have concentrated on bulking up his upper body, which will only make him more dangerous next year. A 6-foot-5 all-round defenseman, Cowen is a steal for the Senators. Drafted ninth overall by Ottawa in 2009.

4. Kieran Millan, G – Boston University Terriers (Hockey East): Colorado is paper-thin in net right now, so drafting Millan and NTDP netminder Brandon Maxwell in succession was an important move. Millan, who will turn 20 this summer, helped the Terriers to a national championship with a conference-best 1.94 goals-against average. Drafted 124th overall by Colorado in 2009.

5. Seth Helgeson, D – Sioux City Musketeers (USHL): The Devils got a big dude in Helgeson, who will bring a surly disposition to the New Jersey blueline. Watch his development take off under coach Don Lucia at the University of Minnesota next year. Drafted 114th overall by New Jersey in 2009.

6. Andrej Nestrasil, RW – Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL): This has all the makings of a classic Detroit pick. Nestrasil put up 57 points in 66 games on an average Tigres squad and keep in mind, it was his first season in North America. At 6-foot-2, 200 pounds, the young Czech has a bright future. Drafted 75th overall by Detroit in 2009.

7. Stanislav Galiev, C – Indiana Ice (USHL): The first pick in the CHL import draft, Galiev can pack his bags for Saint John, as he will join the Quebec League’s Sea Dogs next season. The dynamic Russian popped in 64 points in 60 games and won a Clark Cup with the Ice in the process. Draft eligible in 2010.

8. Patrick Wey, D – Waterloo Black Hawks (USHL): Look for Wey to make some noise next season. He has already garnered an invite to Team USA’s world junior camp and will join a stacked Boston College squad next year. Of course, size and skill are a nice combination for any team. Drafted 115th overall by Washington in 2009.

9. Nino Niederreiter, C – HC Davos Jr. (Swi.): A point-per-game player for the Swiss at the under-18s in Fargo/Moorhead, Niederreiter’s CHL rights now belong to the Moose Jaw Warriors, who tabbed the 6-foot-1, 203-pounder with the second pick in the import draft. Draft eligible in 2010.

10. Brandon Kozun, RW – Calgary Hitmen (WHL): Think of Kozun as this year’s Justin Azevedo; a high-scoring small forward passed over in previous drafts, but picked up by the Kings nonetheless. Kozun wrecked the Dub for 108 points this year, good for second on the circuit. Drafted 179th overall by Los Angeles in 2009

Colorado Avalanche: Please excuse the mess while we are under construction.

by hockeymom on Jul 1, 2009 5:49 PM MDT up reply actions  

While the fanfare around Duchene has been a little bit crazy, we do have a substantial investment in Stazz, and I for one feel very comfortable with that. I love the heady two-way play he brings to the team. I can’t say if he or Duchene will end up as captain, but there is certainly more to leadership than just a letter. No matter who gets the C, both will be important pieces to the puzzle, both as players and as leaders (assuming that they are both kept).

I personally hope that we hold off on handing either of them the captaincy for awhile. I’d prefer to have Smyth or Foote get the captaincy next year, provided Joe does not return. Of course, Lappy would have been an ideal captain for the transition years sigh

by The Extra Attacker on Jun 30, 2009 9:22 PM MDT reply actions  

Trade Stastny

We should use Stastny for a #1 D Men. Duchene will be #1 center very soon.

Statsny makes about $1.5M too much to be a #2 center. We love his old school style, and etc… But his value to Avalanche is maximized as a trade bait. Wolski can play #2 center or someone else in mold of Mike Fisher, David Legwand should get the job done.

We should see if Chicago will deal one of their young DMen and a #1 for Stastny.

by cjlee on Jun 30, 2009 10:16 PM MDT reply actions  

I disagree, strongly. First of all, Chicago won’t be moving one of their young horses and a number one pick for Stastny. Second, why would we want to move Stastny? Defensively responsible centers who average more than a point a game do not grow on trees. I think his 6 million stipend is actually a pretty good deal. If recent NHL success is any indication, teams that are strong down the middle are far more likely to be successful than teams that aren’t. Also, it is pretty clear that Wolski cannot be a number two center on a good NHL team. That was made clear by his performance last year, and the season wrap-up posts seemed to provide consensus in line with that sentiment. In fact, Adrian Dater has made it clear that a Wolski could be imminent. Personally, I’d love to see Wolski stay as a third-line center, but it’s debatable that he would accept that role. Our system is full of defense prospects that should, by all accounts, eventually develop into a solid, serviceable top 4. It makes very little sense to trade Stastny at this point. He is a vital cog in the rebuilding effort, and we shouldn’t rush to move him just because of our draft.

by The Extra Attacker on Jun 30, 2009 10:31 PM MDT up reply actions  

no WAY. 1 – 2 punch at center is way, way more important than anything else. see: pittsburgh, detroit.

by thedoctor on Jun 30, 2009 10:57 PM MDT up reply actions  

Definitely. Having two separate lines that can kill an opponent significantly limits their defensive options. Putting all your eggs in one basket means they face the top pairing every single time and have to rely on scrubs to make up the difference. Not a great strategy.

Go Avs! Let's get some goals!

by Joe Dunman on Jul 1, 2009 5:46 AM MDT up reply actions  

Is the “goofy toothless grin” much of a negative for Stastny? Ovechkin is sporting one as well…

I agree with Tommelot that the broken foot could’ve happened to anyone, and the broken arm was bad luck. I watched that replay over and over. Paul thought he was getting the body block and it ended up curving just slightly into his unprotected forearm. He even stayed on for the remainder of the play. He’s got a capacity for what must’ve been awful pain.

Of course, as we all wondered back then, what terrible coaching decision was it to play a defensive system where your top center is blocking shots.

In any case, I still think Stastny is going to be the captain for at least a while when Sakic and Smyth are gone. He’ll have several years of NHL play under his belt when Duchene joins the regular roster, and I think he’ll be a nice bridge between the young kids and the vets.

One down, three to go

by FiveJeffFingerDiscount on Jul 1, 2009 8:37 AM MDT reply actions   1 recs

I whole heartily agree with you.

I am, however, of the opinion that either Duchene OR Stastny will be the captain at one point during their careers, assuming they’ll only play for this franchise. You can’t make Stastny captain for a few seasons and then give it to Duchene.

by Tommelot on Jul 1, 2009 9:16 AM MDT up reply actions  

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