Jonas 'The Monster' Gustavsson "bidding wars" and where could he end up?
by c0nquistad0rian on Jun 8, 2009 7:19 PM MDT
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PrintI wrote the below on a goalie message board a few weeks ago. But I figured with all of the Gustavsson talk going on in the Harding thread, it would be worth while to reprise my thoughts here.
Jonas 'The Monster' Gustavsson "bidding wars" and where will he end up?
I have heard some mention of Jonas Gustavsson "bidding wars" may help dictate where he ends up. But it often seems to be left out that because of his age (24), he will be subjected to a one year entry level contract and thus, a maximum salary. Additionally, because he was never drafted, his ELC will be subjected to the maximum allowable salary for the draft year (2009) in which he signs.
This means that the maximum salary for an ELC in 2009 is $900K with a maximum of $2.85 million in performance bonuses. Therefore, the maximum cap number that Gustavsson or anyone drafted in 2009 could have is $3.75 milion.
So how much will Gustavsson make? This is where the "bidding wars" could take place. Below is a breakdown of the top 5 draft picks for each of the past five years and the cap numbers of their entry level contracts. You'll see that outside of Evgeni Malkin, only the top draft pick from any year has made the maximum allowable amount for an entry level contract. One contract in particular which could be a bench mark for Gustavsson’s is that of the only goalie in the group: Carey Price’s entry level contract pays him a maximum amount of $2.2 million.
2004 (maximum cap number: $3,834,200; Maximum base salary: $984,200; maximum performance bonuses: $2.85 million)
- Alexander Ovechkin $3,834,200
- Evgeni Malkin $3,834,200
- Cam Barker $1,595,000
- Andrew Ladd $1,834,000
- Blake Wheeler $2,825,000 (Wheeler did not sign with Phoenix, the team that originally drafted him and became a free agent. I believe that when he signed a contract with Boston in the summer of 2008, his entry level contract was subject to the maximum allowances of the 2008 draft year.)
2005 (maximum cap number: $3,700,000; Maximum base salary: $850,000; maximum performance bonuses: $2.85 million)
- Sidney Crosby $3,700,000
- Bobby Ryan $1,922,000
- Jack Johnson $2,150,000
- Benoit Pouliot $1,700,000
- Carey Price $2,200,000
2006 (maximum cap number: $3,700,000; Maximum base salary: $850,000; maximum performance bonuses: $2.85 million)
- Erik Johnson $3,700,000
- Jordan Staal $2,200,000
- Jonathan Toews $2,800,000
- Nicklas Backstrom $2,400,000
- Phil Kessel $2,200,000
2007 (maximum cap number: $3,725,000; Maximum base salary: $875,000; maximum performance bonuses: $2.85 million)
- Patrick Kane $3,725,000
- James Van Riemsdyk ??? did not find details of contract
- Kyle Turris $2,696,000
- Thomas Hickey ??? did not find details of contract
- Karl Alzner $1,675,000
2008 (maximum cap number: $3,725,000; Maximum base salary: $875,000; maximum performance bonuses: $2.85 million)
- Steven Stamkos $3,725,000
- Drew Doughty $3,475,000
- Zach Bogosian $2,725,000
- Alex Pietrangelo $2,225,000
- Luke Schenn $1,250,000
Perhaps some more appropriate comparables could be the entry level contracts of Henrik Lundqvist and Fabian Brunnstrom. Lundqvist, Gustavsson’s fellow countryman and goaltender, is often referenced when discussing Gustavsson because it was his Swedish Elite League playoff shutout record that Gustavsson eclipsed this year with a 240 minutes 25 second shutout streak. Lundqvist was a 7th round draft pick in 2000 and signed a three year entry level contract in 2005 as a 23 year old. His contract was worth $1.8795 million per year in a year when the maximum ELC was $3.7 million.
Fabian Brunnstrom was an undrafted yet highly coveted scoring winger from Sweden whom the Dallas Stars eventually signed to a two year entry level contract in the summer of 2008. The then 23 year old Brunnstrom has an ELC with a cap number of $2.225 million ($875k salary; $1.35 million potential bonuses) in a year when the maximum ELC was $3.725 million.
How much does that leave Gustavsson? I would guess that he will sign a one year deal worth between $2.5 and 3 million dollars.
And where will he end up? He's supposedly narrowed his options down to Toronto, Dallas, San Jose and Colorado and plans to visit North America and meet with those organizations. I’ve read that Gustavsson had been contacted by as many as 24 NHL teams. But, he’s supposedly narrowed it down to those four.Brian Burke has already made it public that he’s made an offer and that Gustavsson would back up Toskala. Dallas is rumored to be interested. But, they have Marty Turco in net. San Jose has Evgeni Nabokov and Colorado has Peter Budaj.
Apparently, Patrick Roy was his favorite goaltender and many are speculating that Roy's rejection of the Avs' offer to coach the team has hurt their chances at landing Gustavsson. I would further contend that the Avs' salary cap situation could hurt their chances: they have just 13 players signed for about $43 million next season. San Jose is in a similar situation with 13 players signed for about $46 million.
On the other hand, Dallas has 17 players signed for about $40 million and Toronto has 17 players signed for about $42 million.
http://nhlscap.com/els.htm
http://www.canada.com/Little+played+Schenn+soaking+experience/1582225/story.html
http://www.tsn.ca/story/?id=277752
http://thegoalieguild.com/2009/05/11/dialogue-with-the-stars/
http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/rslover.tsn/190989
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The Monster
Solid post. It may be a bit too much of a homer’s attitude here (or just wishful thinking), but I have to think that Colorado would have the inside track when just considering the team. Gustavsson probably doesn’t want to be a backup and wants be in a comfortable position. He’d start with the Avs from day 1 (probably), and nobody would blame him for losses at this point. As he grows, so will the Avs; keep in mind that although next season looks daunting, the Avs do have some good young talent and their numbers are likely to grow. Plus, you never know, maybe Peter will show up and he’ll have a countryman along for the ride!
Of the four teams he’s narrowed it down to, Colorado has the best chance to offer a longer-term deal than one year (our salary cap situation after next season isn’t so bad).
I don’t think that he’ll get an offer of more than a one year contract any where he goes considering that that is going to be his entry level contract. After that, he’ll be an RFA and won’t be subjected to the limitations of an ELC.
by c0nquistad0rian on Jun 9, 2009 8:33 AM MDT up reply actions
Plagerizing myself:
Here’s what I said in the original thread at the aforementioned goalie message board.
He’d start in Colorado on day 1. A Gustavsson/Budaj tandem might be pretty good.
2008-2009 Colorado Avalanche: Dry Humping Mediocrity
I’m not the biggest fan of split duty, either. But, I don’t think that he should be playing 65-70 games right off the bat. European leagues don’t play as many games as the NHL. I think that his play could deteriorate and he could get burnt out by playing too many games. Lundqvist played 53 games in his rookie year and Weekes, whose job Lundqvist stole, played 32. I think that sounds about right for a European goalie transitioning to the NHL. And I also think that Budaj could be a very effective goalie in 30-ish games played.
by c0nquistad0rian on Jun 9, 2009 10:45 AM MDT up reply actions
Salary Cap
I keep thinking about Gus vs Harding, and if trading for Harding would allow us to gain some more cap room, it might be worth it. If we make an offer for Gus we would have to make some trades beforehand to free up some money for him, especially if we want to resign guys like lappy and joe.
I would suspect that it will all come down to whether or not Sherman can find us some trade partner or another. I don’t know anything about his connections with other GMs, but with Pierre back in the game as puppetmaster I imagine he is making some calls to see what he can do.
We just cant forget that now that we have a new coach and GM, third pick, and a couple of hopes for goalies on the horizon, we still have a lot of problems. The more I look at the actual logistics of the issues, I do not envy this franchises’ workload the next month.
Sippin' PBR on a Colorado game day...
I don’t think we’ll be holding a bag of money out for Joe. Just my gut, so it might free up more space. I don’t think the Avs are making the jump to contender this year, so using LE to fill forward spots so that they can pay a little more for a true #1-ish goalie might make more sense in the long run.
2008-2009 Colorado Avalanche: Dry Humping Mediocrity
How much money do you think Clemmensen will command this year? He’d be a decent stopgap, and better IMO than Conklin would, until they can devlop some of the younger goaltenders.
I'm Mr. Positive
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Jun 15, 2009 12:24 PM MDT reply actions
assuming they can’t get Gus or harding.
I'm Mr. Positive
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Jun 15, 2009 12:32 PM MDT up reply actions
I don’t think I want Clemmensen, personally — that Devils system and team stacked the deck in Clemmensen’s favor.
If Harding, Lehtonen, and Gustavsson are out of the picture, I’d prefer Anderson, Biron, or Garon, in that order.
Clemmy will probably get 1-1.5m, imo, to backup and potentially tandem with a weaker #1 somewhere. Could see him going to Florida.
his episode with the thrashers demanding nhl playing time was…concerning, but if he’s available, I would like him as well. He’s another goalie with lots of promise, yet has proven nothing. Risky, but we’ve gotta try this sort of thing at this point.
I don’t see why he would be available though, besides his freak out. He’s cheap, they’ve got a slot for him… I doubt Lehtonen is available either.
Mmmmkay...
Guess I missed the playing time demand storyline. But in truth, I don’t know if that or similar episodes (Tuuka Raask’s fit after being scored on of YouTube fame) are as disturbing to me as others.
Truth of the matter is, you almost have to be clinically insane to be a good tender and the exhibition of fire that Raask and Pavelec have shown in conjunction with the talent that they have shown has been so singularly lacking here in Denver over the last several years (and no, I really don’t count Josie the Pussycat’s pouting episodes), that I’m willing to roll the dice on either of them, much more so than with a Weekes, Clemmenson or Anderson (Harding would be great though).
Top goalie makes Avs his first stop
By Adrian Dater
The Denver Post
Posted: 06/16/2009 01:00:00 AM MDT
Jonas Gustavsson received the burgundy-carpet treatment from the Avalanche.
Gustavsson, the 24-year- old Swede considered one of the best goalies in the world not currently playing in the NHL, wrapped up an approximately 24-hour trip to Denver on Monday. The Avalanche is one of four NHL teams he is considering joining.
Denver was the first stop on his four-city North American tour that will proceed to San Jose, Dallas and Toronto.
Avalanche vice president Jean Martineau said Gustavsson arrived Sunday and left Monday afternoon. He was not made available to the media, but Martineau said Gustavsson met with several Avalanche players and management staff, including new coach Joe Sacco, and was given a tour of the city and the Pepsi Center, including the Avalanche’s dressing room.
Because of NHL rookie/age collective bargaining bylaws, Gustavsson can earn a maximum of $900,000 next season, a number the salary cap-strapped Avs could afford. After next season, Gustavsson could earn considerably more, and the Avs will have more cap room then.
Martineau confirmed that former Avs star Peter Forsberg has spoken on the team’s behalf, in an unofficial recruiting effort. The team would not divulge which players met with Gustavsson.
Gustavsson led Farjestad to the championship of the Swedish Elite League this year. He posted a 1.96 goals- against average and .932 save percentage in the regular season and wants to play in the NHL.
The Avs will receive tough competition in the battle to sign Gustavsson, including from a Toronto team that just signed famed goalie coach Francois Allaire.
by c0nquistad0rian on Jun 16, 2009 7:56 AM MDT reply actions
One thing jumps to my mind. Usually the last one interviewed gets the job so that would make Toronto the destination.
An ounce of confidence can carry you a mile toward winning. Oh, and Red Wings suck.
Much like the Avs plan of hiring.
The Savage has spoken. Let it be done
"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I took the one less travelled by, and that has made all the difference"
R. Frost
Except with the Avs the last one interviewed is also the first one….
MHH: Like the Avs organization, we’ve now officially lost our minds.
I'm The Canary - but I'm not cute nor cuddly, and I don't sing.
by Americanario on Jun 17, 2009 9:47 AM MDT up reply actions
Do the Avs even interview them though, They could just give them the job regardless of those pesky ‘interview’ things. In which case they wouldn’t have a first or last interviewee.
The Savage has spoken. Let it be done
"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I took the one less travelled by, and that has made all the difference"
R. Frost
Hotshot goalie Gustavsson goes on U.S. tour
By Anders Rönmark
Special to The Denver Post
Posted: 06/25/2009 01:00:00 AM MDT
After visiting Denver, San Jose, Dallas and Toronto, Gustavsson is back in his native Sweden, pondering with which team he’ll sign a free-agent contract.
“Well, now I have to let everything just sink in. It’s going to be a really difficult decision,” said Gustavsson, who was voted the best goalie in the Swedish elite league last season and led Färjestad to the championship after a record-breaking season.
“All four clubs made a great impression on me. Beautiful cities, great people, professional organizations. . . . They’ve really made it hard for me.”
But within a week Gustavsson will make up his mind.
“Yes, I will make my decision before the first of July. That will give the other three teams the chance to sign another free-agent goalie,” Gustavsson said.
In Dallas, Gustavsson was introduced at a Texas Rangers game and met with George W. Bush. Gustavsson’s tour of Denver on June 14-15 wasn’t quite as eventful, but he said he was nothing but satisfied with his visit.
“Denver seems like a nice city, and (assistant general manager) Craig Billington really took great care of me. They showed me the arena, I met a lot of people and I got to see for myself that the Avs is truly a professional organization,” Gustavsson said.
He also got the chance to meet with a childhood hero when he visited Denver.
“Yeah, I got the chance to talk to Patrick Roy. He was my idol when I was growing up, so of course it was fantastic to get to meet him,” Gustavsson said. “He told me a bit about his passion for the franchise and how much the Avs meant to him. Colorado sure has a great goalie tradition, and that’s inspiring.”
http://www.denverpost.com/avalanche/ci_12684059
Interesting article for the DP by who looks to be a Swedish author. Sounds like we can expect a decision soon enough.
by c0nquistad0rian on Jun 25, 2009 7:23 AM MDT reply actions
meeting Bush would have been fun for him, maybe he could explain using pictures just how much the rest of the world hates him. OK Politics over, sounds like he’s happy with the Avs, and Roy talking to him can only strengthen the impression, could be good.
The Savage has spoken. Let it be done
"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I took the one less travelled by, and that has made all the difference"
R. Frost
How much does that leave Gustavsson? I would guess that he will sign a one year deal worth between $2.5 and 3 million dollars.
For what it’s worth, capgeek.com is reporting that Gustavsson’s cap hit with the Maple Leafs is $2.5 million on $900k salary and $1.6million in potential bonuses.
http://www.capgeek.com/charts.php?Team=4
So, I was pretty close:)
by c0nquistad0rian on Jul 9, 2009 11:12 AM MDT reply actions
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