Is The Future So Bright...?
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jul 13, 2009 9:04 AM MDT
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Yesterday, Avalanche fans were treated to a surprisingly competent article from Woody Paige in which we learned that there actually was a bit of method behind Pierre Lacroix's madness this summer. This all coincides nicely with Joe Sakic's reassuring rebuilding comments during his retirement press conference as well as Matt Duchene's dazzling performance at the Avs' Development Camp.
So, were all good now, right? We've got Lacroix's recipe for success...
Two great young centers and a great goalie, surrounded by a mix of young and experienced complementary players (with speed on offense and toughness on defense); a young, smart, rising head coach, balanced by excellent, specialized assistants; a solid scouting staff; and a hard-hat executive corps harmonizing.
...so let's just kick back and prepare for the revelry.
Well, here's the thing: we're not there yet. We seem to have the two great young centers (although that's no sure thing yet for either Paul Stastny or Matt Duchene) and I'm going to give you the solid scouting staff and executive team working together. Beyong that...? Is Craig Anderson a great goalie? Does anyone think our existing stable of young players and experienced players are good enough? And is Joe Sacco the next Marc Crawford...or the next Tony Granato?
Sakic mentioned that the Nordiques were a rebuilding club when we first started, but noted that the payoff for those rough early years was worth it (two Stanley Cups). He clearly was attempting to draw a parallel to the Avalanche today. Keep in mind, though, that when Sakic was drafted in 1987, it was a long time before the team turned the corner. The Nordiques (with Sakic still in Swift Current) won 32 games in '87...and that was their BEST season over the next five years. In each of next 3 seasons - Sakic's first three - Quebec finished with the worst record in the league.
The Avalanche won 32 games last year, much like those Nordiques back in 1987. If Duchene plays next year and even if he plays as well as Sakic (who had 62 points his rookie year)...the Avs are probably still going to be a worse team next year and for the next few years unless the other young players in the system suddenly improve dramaticaly.
Even more sobering: drafting Sakic wasn't the turning point for the franchise. He certainly was an excellent pick, but he was just the first piece of the rebuilding puzzle, not the final one. From 1987-1991, Quebec drafted Joe Sakic, Bryan Fogarty (who was traded for Scott Young), Curtis Leschyshen, Stephane Fiset, Valeri Kamensky, Alexei Gusarov, Mats Sundin, Adam Foote, Owen Nolan, Andrei Kovalenko, Claude Lapointe, Rene Corbet and, of course, Eric Lindros. Sakic was a superstar and the cornerstone of the franchise, but without all of these other assets there's no Stanley Cups.
The point I'm trying to make is this: drafting Matt Duchene may just the beginning of the rebuilding process and there are still going to be some rough times ahead. The Avalanche have drafted some good young players over the last few years, but it would take extraordinary luck for our existing stable of prospects to develop on par with the list above. The Colorado Avalanche are still a great deal of talent away from contending for a Cup, and the situation isn't bettered by dumping assets like Ryan Smyth in cost-cutting deals. More than any other part of Pierre Lacroix's blueprint, having several lottery picks and a string of excellent drafts was the foundation for the Cup building; that gave Lacroix the clay that he was able to expertly shape into a winner. But without the clay - the talent - you can't build anything. Frankly, the Avalanche need a few years of terrible seasons to acquire that talent (see Penguins, Pittsburgh). Are you prepared for a few more terrible Avalanche seasons?
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I said it two years ago, and I say it now. Yes. It’s a 3-5 year process MINIMUM, in my opinion. The Avs should be really good about the time my son starts to realize that his father has a serious hockey problem.
2008-2009 Colorado Avalanche: Dry Humping Mediocrity
Good, that give me three more year to get my 3-year-old more ingrained in the hockey tradition. And my soon to be born 2nd son a chance to see daddy swear at the TV a LOT :)
Yeah, he just tells me when I say bad words…even if they are under my breath, he knows what I said. He is my wife’s personal police man. Either that or he yells at me for “scaring him”
Either that or he yells at me for "scaring him"
You really should stop telling him Darcy Tucker stories before bed.
by Jibblescribbits on Jul 13, 2009 9:51 AM MDT up reply actions
You could use my new-found cuss word when swearing at the TV (or anything else)
“Darcy Tucker!” Neither of your sons will have a clue what is going on and it really does work pretty well in terms of venting your frustrations.
Colorado Avalanche: Please excuse the mess while we are under construction.
by hockeymom on Jul 13, 2009 9:23 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
That’s perfect! It even sounds dirty. If I could rec this from my phone I would. Darcy Tucker!
by Dario on Jul 13, 2009 2:44 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
It starts with a great 2-center punch. Joe Sakic was only one part of that Forsberg became the other.
In retrospect, we have Stastny and now Duchene who will hopefully become that 2 center punch. The goaltending is still in question and only seeing how Anderson weathers the storm will answer if he’s the guy or not. Can Wolski, Stoa, Galliardi, Svatos, Jones, Stewart, Mcleod, et. al. round out the rest of the forward positions? What kind of D are we going to have?
Even after the Nords moved to Denver, PL felt they were still one or two pieces away from the cup…then they went out and got Roy….
It would be nice if everything started to come together this season and the team could be out of the basement for the next season. But in all reality, I think most of truely believe it’s going to be a few years…unfortunately.
MHH: Like the Avs organization, we’ve now officially lost our minds.
I'm The Canary - but I'm not cute nor cuddly, and I don't sing.
I’d rather be truly awful for a 3-5 years and then be loaded for legitimate runs at the cup for 5 to 10 years after that than to just be good enough to make the playoffs and maybe win a round every other year or so.
I do throw a bit of a caveat on the years of putridity however: If there aren’t at least signs of brilliance from the new core being brought in, then I’d have a problem.
Good news
I think the Avs do have a little more talent than that Nordiques team when Sakic was drafted. I may be wrong, but I’m under that impression.
by Jibblescribbits on Jul 13, 2009 9:25 AM MDT reply actions
Who is the next Crosby or Ovechkin?
Or even Lindros? Let’s not forget what a huge role Lindros played in the Avs’ success? We need another (then perceived) super stud to refuse to come to us at number 1. Maybe someone who gets severe altitude sickness.
Our 2009-2010 Avs: The towel has been thrown into the rink.
I can handle the pain for the eventual gain.
What I can’t handle are players who don’t give a crap, skate lazy circles and get ice time because of money considerations and/or lack of balls to sit or release them. I don’t even need to type their names. I am looking for a culture of excellence in effort first, coaching that reflects a competent consistent style, and then let the talent grow. Management says it’s wide open, let the best players play. That is what I most want to see. The winning and losing are down the list for me right now.
by Digit on Jul 13, 2009 9:29 AM MDT reply actions 1 recs
Word
That was my biggest problem in the past two seasons as well.
Just as frustrating were those “Jeckel and Hyde” stretches. In one game the team would be be firing on all cylinders and make you think, “Wow, these guys have a real chance at the playoffs”. Like the two Detroit games we wont.
Then the next 3-8 games, they’d come out of the gate and play like they couldn’t wait for the game to end.
I want to see effort and I want to see it consistently.
Just as frustrating were those "Jeckel and Hyde" stretches. In one game the team would be be firing on all cylinders and make you think, "Wow, these guys have a real chance at the playoffs". Like thetwothree Detroit games we won.
Just a correction because it was the highlight of the season…the Avs were 3-1-0 versus Les Ailes
MHH: Like the Avs organization, we’ve now officially lost our minds.
I'm The Canary - but I'm not cute nor cuddly, and I don't sing.
by Americanario on Jul 13, 2009 10:55 AM MDT up reply actions
I think the difference between now and then
is that we have a ton of really good defensive prospects coming up. the Nords had been struggling to find NHL ready guys for a while, I think we’re going see one of the better young defenses in the league in a year or 2.
The hole in that whole article (ha!) for me was the goalie thing. Anderson could be a stud…but it’s a severe long shot. Is there a Roy somewhere for the taking if he’s not the next coming? I think not…
The goalie is the hard part
Living near Philadelphia, I’ve seen the Flyers fail in the playoffs many times because they couldn’t acquire a top goalie. Its seems like they’ve been loaded at forward and defense for years (going back to the Lindros days and excepting the one year they tanked). And in all that time, they’ve brought in many good goalies but they haven’t found a goalie good enough to carry them to a Cup.
Hopefully either Anderson or one of the guys in the system is that goalie for the Avs.
by Inebriated Simian Miscreants on Jul 13, 2009 9:45 AM MDT up reply actions
Goalie
Let’s all just remember that we just saw Chris Osgood vs Marc-Andre Fleury in the finals the last 2 years, Not to mention we’ve seen Dwayne Roloson and Ray Emery make the finals recently, “Good goalie” is pretty relative here.
by Jibblescribbits on Jul 13, 2009 9:50 AM MDT up reply actions
That was the interesting thing I took from the Lacroix article. It seemed to me that he viewed Craig Anderson as kind of a bridge-to-the-future goalie. Sort of a stop-gap during the rebuilding process, and not necessarily the goalie of the future. He seemed to feel like some of the young goalie draftees had the potential to be the guys that take the team to the Cup, rather than Anderson.
I noticed that too, and after Dev camp I didn’t see one that’s on the path to that level. Granted their young, but all of them need a lot of work.
by Jibblescribbits on Jul 13, 2009 10:26 AM MDT up reply actions
PL was in love with Maxwell it sounds like, and I’ve seen some footage of him. He looks quick… maybe he’s the guy? I haven’t seen Cann at all, but I’ve heard some good news.
He was certainly the best looking at camp Friday (in my eyes. Delmas wasn’t bad) but I never once said to myself or doc “now there’s the next great Avs goalie”.
by Jibblescribbits on Jul 13, 2009 10:28 AM MDT up reply actions
It didn’t seem to me that he was trying to rule out the possibility of Anderson being the goalie of the future. It seemed to me that he was saying that if Anderson doesn’t turn out to be the goalie of the future, he’ll at least give the organization time to see how the younger goalies develop. I think they picked Anderson over the other UFAs because he seems to have significant potential.
by Inebriated Simian Miscreants on Jul 13, 2009 11:19 AM MDT up reply actions
I can’t help but feel that this article is full of PL just telling fans what we want to hear.
We have only one goal: Stanley Cup.
Okay, so what was the goal the last two years? Give Darcy Tucker easy cash to be a douche? Have the training staff help Sakic train for olympic weightlifting competition? Does the entire staff at KSE start working seriously toward the playoffs just because PL is back in Denver?
Two great young centers and a great goalie, surrounded by a mix of young and experienced complementary players (with speed on offense and toughness on defense); a young, smart, rising head coach, balanced by excellent, specialized assistants; a solid scouting staff; and a hard-hat executive corps harmonizing.
I give PL props for bringing in Roy, no one can take that from him (and certainly, being his former agent is helpful). But saying this is his recipe when he pretty much inherited a Nordiques team stuffed to the brim with high picks is like getting takeout from an expensive restaurant, putting it on the table and saying you made it all from scratch. This FO hasn’t proven to me yet that they actually know how to build from being a bottom feeder, all they have is the directions left by the last person who made it.
He hired Marc Crawford, an unlikely and unliked choice, as coach and added assistants Joel Quenneville and Jacques Martin — and hired a minor-league coach, Bob Hartley.
At least they came from outside the organization. But hey, if we’re looking for history to repeat itself, hopefully Sacco won’t come back in a few years and order one of his players to break someone’s neck.
“I called in our board for a meeting and laid out all our plans for moving in a new direction. I told everybody — and we have 70-75 percent of our staff together for 10 years — we would start making moves in 10-12 days after my (knee replacement) surgery.
Can we maybe not have the whole organization riding on one person? And this still doesn’t really excuse the whole not firing Granato, Cloutier, and Gigure all at the same time. I think it was abundantly clear at the end of the season that no one was staying, even if Roy didn’t come here.
I’m just not entirely swayed by this article. The Avs front office talking is great, and I hope that communication continues. My inclination though is that as soon as a few blogs and news sites stop talking about the Avs recent moves, they are going to just retreat back into the usual silence and that’ll be the last of it.
I want to be proven wrong, but I just don’t think this is anything other than a reassurance to get people to feel better about ponying up for season tickets.
Colorado Avalanche: Preventing itchy playoff beards since '09
by FiveJeffFingerDiscount on Jul 13, 2009 9:49 AM MDT reply actions
pretty good analysis, FJFD
While it was good to at least hear something from PL, it’s hard to gloss over his (and FG’s) poor performance ever since around the time Bob Hartley was fired and inexplicably replaced by Tony Granato. And I still say the team was absolutely fleeced in the Smyth trade as well. Going to rebuild with youth? Fine, but you better damn well make sure you at least get something in return for your few assets remaining who are worth anything.
I was watching a summer special version of Avalanche All Access on the house channel the other night. To hear the altiboobs talk, Quincey and Priessing are both second comings of Orr. No mention at all on what a tremendous disappointment Priessing was last season or his horrendous contract. Shocker.
I want to be proven wrong, but I just don’t think this is anything other than a reassurance to get people to feel better about ponying up for season tickets.
No you don’t. Haven’t you received the memo? You want them to suck. Just like I do. On to the season ticket thing. My group response to my “what should we do?” email has been underwhelming at best. So I may cancel. Anyone here have any interest in sharing some of the best valued seats in the Can to watch this team rebuild?
Our 2009-2010 Avs: The towel has been thrown into the rink.
by Bob in Boulder on Jul 13, 2009 10:04 AM MDT up reply actions
We were looking at purchasing the 15 game pack again next year, in the nosebleeds, because our seats are actually pretty good. Would you mind giving me an idea of where your seats are and what you are thinking on the sharing thing (we would need 3 seats)
Thanks!
Colorado Avalanche: Please excuse the mess while we are under construction.
Anyone here have any interest in sharing some of the best valued seats in the Can to watch this team rebuild?
Maybe, but I’m in the process of buying a house, so money’s probably tight. If you can give me a couple weeks I’d be able to get back to you 9plus i need time to warm the wife up to the concept…)
by Jibblescribbits on Jul 13, 2009 10:31 AM MDT up reply actions
More details on our seats
2 seats (sorry mom). Upper deck in the corner, Section 350. Second row in that section. $36 each, season ticket price. 2nd cheapest seats in the house. About the best you can get for that price. Attack twice (or now, retreat once), facing the benches, go over towards center ice one more section and tickets are $15 more each. As always, I’ll look to improve them, but given their value, they are very difficult to improve.
Another bone thrown at us by the Avs this season, I can also get a pair of season tickets in the lower bowl (on the end in the retreat twice zone) for only $23 per ticket (only if we also renew ours). Not sure if I’m going to do it, however. Having a difficult enough time getting folks to commit to our regular seats.
Our 2009-2010 Avs: The towel has been thrown into the rink.
by Bob in Boulder on Jul 13, 2009 11:05 AM MDT up reply actions
I really like Quincey though. Yeah Priessing sucked ever since he left San Jose, everyone knows that, and a fifth round pick is yelling for a another goalie pick. But Quincey came up from a good farm system in Detriot and plays some good minutes and is YOUNG. I was rather happy with his aquisition.
a fifth round pick is yelling for a another goalie pick.
even a blind squirrel finda a nut once in a while… The Avs new strategy for drafting goalies.
by Jibblescribbits on Jul 13, 2009 10:32 AM MDT up reply actions
If Quincey is so good
Why did the Wings waive him in favor of a 90 year-old Chelios?
Our 2009-2010 Avs: The towel has been thrown into the rink.
by Bob in Boulder on Jul 13, 2009 11:06 AM MDT up reply actions
Oh
and he’s coming off of back surgery. Great.
Our 2009-2010 Avs: The towel has been thrown into the rink.
by Bob in Boulder on Jul 13, 2009 11:06 AM MDT up reply actions
hernia surgery. those have worked well for us in the past
Hyphens cause writers more trouble than any other form of punctuation, except perhaps commas.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jul 13, 2009 11:10 AM MDT up reply actions
as far as i can tell
it had little to do with that, and more to do with them screwing up. somehow they thought he’d clear waivers, or didn’t realize he was eligible, depending on the articles I find.
the RW org screwed up?
Don’t tell Red Wing Dan this.
Our 2009-2010 Avs: The towel has been thrown into the rink.
by Bob in Boulder on Jul 13, 2009 11:35 AM MDT up reply actions
Dug up an old article from the week Quincey got waived:
http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index.ssf/2008/10/source_red_wings_looking_to_tr.html
From the few Wings fans I’m on speaking terms with, and from what I’ve read, Detroit was pretty high on Quincey coming up, seemed like a numbers game and that they were trying to trade him. It’s not like they chucked him out because he was crap or anything like that.
So they wanted a mid-round draft pick for him?
Think they would have jumped at Ryan Smyth, especially if they could have also unloaded a poor contract going the other way? And also from the article, they liked him, but not as much as Lebda, Lilja, or Meech. Lebda, Lilja or Meech? Oh my.
Our 2009-2010 Avs: The towel has been thrown into the rink.
by Bob in Boulder on Jul 13, 2009 11:56 AM MDT up reply actions
They were just looking to get something for him before they lost him on waivers. They couldn’t send him to the minors again without him clearing waivers and they knew someone would pick him up if they tried. You’re absolutely correct that at the time, Meech, Lilja, and Lebda were valued more and more able to contribute to the Wings at that time. That doesn’t diminish Quincey’s status as a prospect for them, just that in the pecking order, he wasn’t able to break the NHL lineup at that time. That put them in a bind to where they had to trade him or risk losing him on waivers.
Hope he turns out
Really do. I think I was just expecting more for Ryan fricken Smyth. The only three big contracts I think they could realistically get value in return for are:
Stastny
Smyth
Liles
So I was just disappointed they didn’t get more in return for Smyth, that is all. I guess in the end what will be telling in that trade are:
1. What else are they able to do, especially regarding unloading at least one maybe 2 D-man contracts?
2. What will Quincey ultimately turn into? A steady 5th or 6th D on a good team but maybe a top 3 guy on a bad team? Even given the breakout season he seemed to have last season, the LAK fans don’t seem to overwhelmed by him (given the SB Nation review).
Our 2009-2010 Avs: The towel has been thrown into the rink.
by Bob in Boulder on Jul 13, 2009 12:19 PM MDT up reply actions
I definately see your point, it’s hard to see that kind of return for a guy with Smyths reputation. I’m a bit torn though on Smyth. One one hand, we’ll miss his leadership (assumed) and his grit (demonstrated). On the flip side, his skills are on the decline, and so if we were going to trade him, I think now is the time. I’m anxious, as you are, to see what the followup moves are regarding moving a couple of D contracts, no way we’re done dealing before the season. And yep, I fully concede that Quincey, Preissing, and that 5th round pick might not amount to a bag of pucks and two cans of stale orange soda; but for now at least I’ll try to be optimistic and hope for the best.
Smyth’s killer was his age. You don’t want to give up a Jack Johnson,because your going to keep him for 12+ years. Smyth for Johnson seems reasonable in a sense of talent, but it was Smyth’s age that really killed it. Contracts was another thing. I’m sure LA had to dump some cap, or else Quincey and a 2nd rounder would make more sense, and I think that’s were Priessing came in. Obviously the Avs organization likes what they see in Quincey, and I think he could easily fill a 3rd or 4th defenseman with ease. With Shattenkirk, Cohan, and Williams coming up in the future.
The Colorado Avalanche should re-build in the mold of Pittsburgh, not Detoit. Not sure I agree, Pens were lucky to be bad around the years Fleury+Malkin+Crosby were draft eligible. Guys like that don’t always come around. Even if they say Matt Duchene should be a solid pro, he’s not going to be a 100 by age 21/22 like Sid and Geno.
http://www.pensburgh.com/2009/7/13/947047/monday-link-roundup
Some interesting thoughts from over at PensBurgh.
by c0nquistad0rian on Jul 13, 2009 10:26 AM MDT reply actions
Completely agree. They were lucky to suck when Crosby and Malkin were draft eligable. Detroit is still the model franchise. They have one or two first rounders in their lineup. Lidstrom, arguably the best D-man in the league was a 3rd rounder, as was Datsyuk and Franzan. Zetterberg was a seventh rounder, as was Eriksson. Holmstrom was selected in the 10th round. Darren Helm, who I think is phenominal (you can’t teach speed) was a fifth rounder. The key for a successful franchise is getting value deep into a draft. Detroit does that better than any team in the league, but I think the Avalanche are getting their, with late picks of Maxwell, Mercier, Stoa, and Cuminsky.
Yup, there is a whole lot of luck (and/or expertise :) ) that goes into this kind of rebuilding. For every success like the Pens (and the pending success of the Blackhawks), there’s a bunch of Panthers/Blues/Coyotes/Columbuses who seem to get stuck in that cycle of rebuilding that never ends. Hopefully, the Avs recent (and upcoming) drafts hit the jackpot, and we see the benefits that the Pens and Blackhawks are beginning to see.
Colorado Rockies (baseball)
The Avs are basically at the same point where the Rockies were a few years ago. They were trying to rid themselves of bad contracts (Neagle and Hampton), coming off a terrible season (or two… or three), and had an owner who decided to “rebuild”. They rebuilt and a few years later have a pretty good ball club in their hands. It had to happen for them, it has to happen to us. I sat through the steaming pile of dog poo on the diamond, and I’ll do the same at the rink for the Avs (who are in a much better situation than the Rockies were, right?). I just hope Kroenke doesn’t follow the Monforts’ lead on too many other ownership issues, and that the Avs are legit.
by McDonaldstache on Jul 13, 2009 11:23 AM MDT reply actions
The Penguins almost left town
Several times. Remember that sucking for that long comes with risk.
Joe Sakic.
I hate that people keep mentioning this as a possibility for the Avs. There is NO WAY that the NHL will move a team like Colorado. If they fought tooth and nail to keep the Pens in Pittsburgh, and are fighting to keep Phoenix in Phoenix, as well as the fight to keep Nashville in Nashville, why wouldn’t they try their damndest to keep Colorado in Denver?
Balstupid is just going to have to wait for an expansion team for his precious Hamilton team.
Not to mention Kroenke would have to sell the team before it moves, since he’s a Billionaire 3 times over and heavily invested in the Denver area.
But you know other than an invested ownership, a strong financial foundation, strong local investment, and a historically strong fanbase this situation is EXACTLY like those other three.
You know except how it isn’t like it at all.
by Jibblescribbits on Jul 14, 2009 7:45 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
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