Poor 1st round drafting the reason for Avs current position?
by Tommelot on Aug 20, 2009 5:14 AM MDT
30 comments
I was looking at the recent draft history per year and noticed that they haven't been doing all that well, draft wise. Mainly in the first round they haven't been able to put the icing on the cake.
In my review I'm excluding picks later than the 2nd round as hardly any team, other than Detroit, could've expected those players to pan out.
So follow me after the jump and we'll see how they've fared in recent history:
1996
In 1996 the Avs had the 25th out of the 26 1st round picks, and they came up with Peter Ratchuk.
Ratchuk played 32 games in the NHL (Panthers, signed as FA) before he was sent down and ended up in Germany.
Other players still available by then were Cory Sarich, Dan Lacouture, Josh Green, Matt Cullen, Steve Begin, Jan Bulis, Matthieu Garon and Colin White.
Most of these names don't ring any bells, but all of them have had more productive playing careers than Ratchuk and played at least 200 games in the NHL.
1997
This year the Avs had the last 1st round pick and chose Kevin Grimes.
[No picture findable].
Grimes never made it to the NHL and the Avs would've done better picking Ben Clymer, Henrik Tallinder or Kristian Huselius.
It looks like the 97 draft was slim pickings, but most NHL calibre players were drafted before the Avs could choose (Brendan Morrow with pick #25) or in later rounds.
1998
In 1998 the Avs had 4 first round picks (#12, #17, #19 and #20) and did pretty well. They first picked Alex Tanguay.
Followed by Skoula, Regehr and Parker.
Nobody will argue the Tanguay pick, and Skoula and Regehr were quite decent choices also. But just imagine if they used one of the 3 remaining picks (Tanguay was solid) to grab Gagne, Gomez, Cheechoo or Ribeiro.
1999
Out of the 28 available picks, the Avs received #25 and picked Mikhail Kuleshov.
via medusa.tutka.fi
Kuleshov played a solid 3 games in the NHL, recording 4 shots on goal. He didn't do that much better in Russia nor the AHL.
The Sens had the pick after the Avs and decided to pick Martin Havlat. Other players who could've been wearing a Avs Jersey are Mike Commodore, Jordan Leopold (What now?) and Adam Hall.
2000
This year the Avs had pick #14 and Chose Vaclav Nedorost
overlooking a whole bunch of top 6 forwards like Alexander Frolov, Justin Williams, Jarret Stoll and Antoine Vermette.
2001
This year the Avs only had pick #63, which somehow just fell within the 2nd round. They picked Budaj. No problems, but not worth mentioning as, technically, he fell out of my guidelines (only 1st round picks, to later picks up to the last pick of the 2nd round).
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nicely done
and, to answer your mostly-rhetorical question, yes, poor drafting is one of the reasons for their current position
Hyphens cause writers more trouble than any other form of punctuation, except perhaps commas.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Aug 20, 2009 6:42 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Huh, I always wondered why I never heard about any of our 1st round choices out side of ’98 and Wolski (and recently Stewart as well). Guess this wraps it up pretty well.
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Aph on Aug 20, 2009 7:33 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m not sure that these represent poor drafting. Sure The Avs didn’t get max value, but it’s not like they missed out on a whole lot either with most of their misses.
The year that pisses me off the most is the Parker pick in ’9. It seems like the Avs just said “Screw it, we have 4 first round picks, lets take a fighter”instead of getting someone good.
The 2009-10 Colorado Avalanche: Aiming for the Charity Point
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Aug 20, 2009 7:37 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know, that Havlat chap or Frolov might have fit in well with the Avs…
and I agree about ’98: Any of the four listed above and a about a half-dozen others would have brought more value than Parker. The Avs had a legit shot at building a true pre-lockout powerhouse via the draft in ’98 and while they got some value with the Skoula pick, they ultimately overpaid (in the long run) with Regehr. Gomez, Gagne, or even Ribeiro would have likely filled some of the holes that needed to be filled after the loss of Drury, Tanguay, and Forsberg.
2008-2009 Colorado Avalanche: Dry Humping Mediocrity
by Mike @ MHH on Aug 20, 2009 7:50 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I saw some one mention the other day that they were interested in seeing what the scouting reports said about Parker. There HAD to be some kind of felling that he could develop into something more, right? RIGHT?
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Aph on Aug 20, 2009 7:52 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Devils also drafted Parker 63rd overall in 1996, and they say he had quick hands in Juniors…
by Tommelot on Aug 20, 2009 8:52 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
He does have quick hands
You ever go to a game and watch Parker in warmups? The guy has crazy fast hands, and a pretty good shot, too. The reason that he never scored much has always been that he was slow. He has a lot of offensive gifts, but he’s not fast enough to use them.
"You were born to be a player. You were meant to be here. The moment is yours." -- Coach Herb Brooks' pregame speech prior to the Miracle on Ice
by wtnelson on Aug 20, 2009 11:35 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m pretty sure that the Avs had notions of developing him into a power forward. I recall hearing that the team had him working on his skating. But the Avalanche had always said that they would draft the best player possible. Did they really do that in this case? It seems as though they were just filling a “tough guy” need more than anything with the idea that anything extra he gave them would be icing on the cake.
by c0nquistad0rian on Aug 20, 2009 11:38 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know
I’m not making an excuse for the pick. I wish I knew what the thought process was. I’m just saying that Parker does have some crazy offensive skills.
"You were born to be a player. You were meant to be here. The moment is yours." -- Coach Herb Brooks' pregame speech prior to the Miracle on Ice
by wtnelson on Aug 20, 2009 11:43 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good point. Its kind of hard to get stellar choices when you are always 20th+ (Barring trades). That’s why we need to bomb for a few years and then talk about how we are doing so awesome because of great drafting in the first round :D.
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Aph on Aug 20, 2009 7:51 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
nice post
i think we made some poor choices, but I wouldn’t say we did it at a higher rate than any other team. You could play this game with 3/4 of the other teams in the league and probably have similar results.
where we screwed up was in trading our good prospects for nothing repeatedly — Regehr, Gilbert, Ballard, etc.
by thedoctor on Aug 20, 2009 9:00 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree Doc. This argument can be made in pretty much any sport, for pretty much any team. It’s the old “hindsight is 20:20” argument.
It’s just like trades and FA pickups. “If we had just traded so and so instead of so and so, we win the Stanley Cup”
But I agree with the main point of the analysis
by chiavsfan on Aug 20, 2009 9:03 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Pens built a pretty decent team out of their drafts. And so did Washington.
by Tommelot on Aug 20, 2009 10:10 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
For the most part it was just barely pre…then post lockout. A little bit of a difference there
by chiavsfan on Aug 20, 2009 10:14 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Pens drafted 5 players, in a row, in the top 5 of the draft. Their top-3 centers and Starting goalie were all part of that.
Avs were drafting in the 20s for years, that’s a monumental difference.
The 2009-10 Colorado Avalanche: Aiming for the Charity Point
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Aug 20, 2009 10:44 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
This reminds me of a comment that I made in which I listed the Avs’ first round draft choices since the franchise moved to Denver.
I didn’t go so far as to list other players that the Avs missed out on. But here are the thoughts that I had on the Avs’ drafting:
What I see from this is:
*Up intil the past 3-5 years the Avs haven’t drafted that well as an organization (but, the Jury is still out on most of those players).
*Most of their first round picks have been busts (which they did do a decent job at getting a return from via trades in some cases).
*They’ve never had a pick higher than 12th overall and that pick was acquired from another team (1999, Alex Tanguay).
*They have not had any first round picks in 4 of the past 10 drafts.
*The Avalanche has always said that they would draft the best remaining player possible. I know that hindsight is 20/20, but it’s obvious in some cases that they did not do that. Just take a look at the 1998 draft and view the list of Solid NHL players drafted after Martin Skoula and Scott Parker.
My conclusion? Just once, it would be nice to see the Avalanche have a "gimme" pick.
by c0nquistad0rian on Aug 20, 2009 11:34 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
About the '98 Draft
Weren’t the Avs collecting all those first rounders to take a run at dealing for the LeCavalier pick? IIRC, they kept going after Tampa with those picks, trying to craft a deal, because Lacroix was (rightfully) enamored of Vinny.
Also, the Parker pick…the Avs had been trying to replace Chris Simon for two years at that point, and really felt that had been one missing ingredient to the team in the two disappointing playoff runs preceding. Hell, if they reached to get Kevin Grimes in 1997, who didn’t have near the pedigree Parker did, they were probably tap dancing to the podium when Parker was still available. I think they felt they had the luxury to reach a little for Parker, considering they already had three other picks in the first round. They also had a high second round choice, and really screwed the pooch with that one…Ramzi Abid.
Above Average.
by Don Balls on Aug 20, 2009 1:23 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes indeed
and Tampa Bay kept saying “We want the four first rounders and Forsberg.” Naturally, the Avs lol’d and we ended using all the picks ourselves.
I thought you knew that algebra was all razzamatazz. A Globetrotter always saves the good algebra for the final minutes.
by SlamDunkTheFunk on Aug 20, 2009 3:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can’t believe that Brad Richards went in the third round (64th overall) of that draft also to the Lightning.
by c0nquistad0rian on Aug 20, 2009 4:23 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
We grabbed Drury and Hejduk
in the third and fourth rounds of the ’94 draft. A pretty impressive mid-round haul, methinks.
I thought you knew that algebra was all razzamatazz. A Globetrotter always saves the good algebra for the final minutes.
by SlamDunkTheFunk on Aug 20, 2009 5:18 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the big reason we are in this position is because we’ve been drafting late in almost every round for the last 10 years. The league is setup this way to give bad teams a chance. It doesn’t matter how you cut it, great teams will eventually fall, especially in a salary cap league. I know the big response to this will be, Detroit is still good, and they are. However, Detroit has been lucky with late draft picks and they’ve been playing in a horrible division for a long time. Their luck will not last forever and the division competition is catching up fast. I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch to see Chicago win the division this year.
by mcarson01 on Aug 20, 2009 6:04 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree that while Detroit has played in a weaker division than Colorado and their team may be diminished ever so slightly, I wouldn’t call their drafting luck. True, no one could have ever expected Zetterberg or Datsyuk to be such game breakers (they were both drafted in the sixth round, I believe.)
But, Detroit has very good management in place and they draft the players that fit their system and are right for their team. One of the luxuries about having such a good team and how they are able to perpetuate it is that none of their prospects are ever rushed along; their players are eased into the line up and learn the system along the way. The only knock that you could make on Detroit’s drafting and player development strategy is that they have not developed a bona fide NHL calibur goalie since Chris Osgood.
by c0nquistad0rian on Aug 20, 2009 7:04 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
Osgood as an NHL caliber goalie is debatable.
An ounce of confidence can carry you a mile toward winning. Oh, and Red Wings suck.
by texacogirl on Aug 20, 2009 7:45 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, NOW.
I thought there was a time in his career where he WAS decent.
I thought you knew that algebra was all razzamatazz. A Globetrotter always saves the good algebra for the final minutes.
by SlamDunkTheFunk on Aug 20, 2009 10:13 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
something smells
must be osgood
"We just couldnt put the cat in the hat thats really why we lost today we just couldnt put the cat in the hat."
by avs21fan on Aug 21, 2009 12:30 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that Detroit has good management and that they have good scouts but even the best scouts can’t predict the future of a player. They need to go off of what they see and hope the player has the will and desire to push themselves to the limit in order to compete in the NHL and stay healthy. Also, they need to hope like hell that they will not want to sign for more money in the KHL. That’s one area that I think the Avs strategy of drafting mostly from North America could eventually pay off. Most of those players are much less likely to go overseas to play.
With all that said, I believe there is a large element of luck involved in the drafts but I don’t deny that there is some strategy and skill as well.
by mcarson01 on Aug 20, 2009 7:48 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
We'll disagree here.
Great finds in Zetterberg and Datsyuk, but their overall history of drafting really isn’t that stellar. For example
Starting with the 2000 draft (the year after Zetterberg), the Red Wings have drafted 16 players to hit the NHL (I realize it’s a little early on the classes in ‘07 and ’08, but still). Within that last of 16, immortal names such as Tomas Kopecky, Dmitry Bykov, Drew MacIntyre, Jonathan Ericsson, Derek Meech, the perennially overrated Jimmy Howard, Darren Helm, Kyle Quincey (!), Mattias Ritola, Justin Abdelkader, and Shawn Matthias. That’s 11 of those 16 who aren’t really going to strike fear into opposing teams, though a few are pretty young and could still contribute. They did hit on guys like Franzen, Hudler, Fleishmann (who has done his damage in the NHL with the Caps), Filpulla, and Kronwall.
Color me unimpressed.
I thought you knew that algebra was all razzamatazz. A Globetrotter always saves the good algebra for the final minutes.
by SlamDunkTheFunk on Aug 20, 2009 10:38 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
My pessmissm
Leads me to conclude that even if we’d drafted well, we’d have either screwed up their development, or traded them for a 7th defender.
by eltharion_doa on Aug 21, 2009 7:15 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
more like 43rd defender seriously ive lost count
"We just couldnt put the cat in the hat thats really why we lost today we just couldnt put the cat in the hat."
by avs21fan on Aug 21, 2009 7:45 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
My pessmissmmy unfortunate grasp on the historical reality
Fixed
Get rid of the loser point
08-09 Avs- can we decline the penalty?
by TheRed on Aug 21, 2009 4:12 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
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