Avs After 47 - Comparisons and Reasonable Expectations
by HugoAgogo on Jan 14, 2010 5:48 PM MST
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After the Avs triumphant return to 1st in the Northwest and a 5 day holiday for the team - now is a time (not a good time - 41 games would be a good time) to look at where the Avs sit and what some reasonable expectations are for the rest of the season.
Here is the record and the amount of points that the Avs have obtained in each season post-lockout:
- 2005-06: 27-17-3 = 57 points.
- 2006-07: 24-20-3 = 51 points.
- 2007-08: 25-18-4 = 54 points.
- 2008-09: 23-23-1 = 47 points.
- 2009-10: 26-15-6 = 58 points.
From this, if this trend continues then this could be the Avs best season post-lockout. However, as last season showed, using the 1st half (or 47 games) to predict the 2nd half (or 35 games) doesn't always work:
- 2005-06: 57 pts in 47 GP = 99 expected pts in 82 GP, 94 actual pts (-5).
- 2006-07: 89 expected pts, 95 actual pts (+6).
- 2007-08: 94 expected pts, 95 actual pts (+1).
- 2008-09: 82 expected pts, 69 actual pts (-13).
- 2009-10: 101 expected pts.
Now, even if the Avs do fall off the cliff, it can be expected that this only will have about a 10 point effect on the actual points obtained by the end of the year. Further, there are two reasons why it is unlikely that the Avs will depart that strongly from their current record. Firstly, the Avs road record looks very good. Taking a cue from BiB, when you go Doug Moe across seasons - the Avs also have a good chance of having the best away record this season of any season post-lockout:
- 2005-06: 18-20-3
- 2006-07: 22-15-4
- 2007-08: 17-19-5
- 2008-09: 14-24-3
- 2009-10 thus far: 15-9-4
To beat the exceptional road results seen in 2006-07, which was powered by a 10-0-2 finish on the road to end the season, the '09-'10 Avs only have to go 7-6-0 the rest of the way to match this.
Secondly, the Avs shootout skills are not very good this year:
- 2005-06: 4-3
- 2006-07: 4-3
- 2007-08: 6-4
- 2008-09: 8-1
- 2009-10: 5-6
The fact that the Avs have this year had a relative lack of success in the shootout and still remain where they are would appear to be a positive. Also, this makes it less likely that the bubble will burst like it did with the '08-'09 Avs and they will plunge in the standings.
In light of this, its poll time:
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I voted for the 95+ points, they have a majority of those remaining games at home, and while they don’t dominate teams they should beat, I expect them to win at a 2-1 ratio (no I haven’t done the math to see if that ratio ends up at where I want it to be). as a side note, i went shopping for groceries at target for the first time and was pleasantly surprised to find my old friend alcohol there for purchase—It was bad ass to buy jameson and food at the same time…and that might have something to do with the whole anti-math thingy above.
I've learned that life is one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Jan 14, 2010 10:18 PM MST reply actions
Jameson and food? Jameson IS food! Try the 12yr, or Tullamore Dew, as well, if you haven’t they are both good (12yr is great) Whiskeys
Get rid of the loser point
TheRed: MHH's ninth ranked post-whore. Thank God for the internets or I'd have no life
I voted for 95+
because I have a bet with Kent from M&G, and if the Avs don’t make it to 95 I have to write something nice about the Lames.
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 15, 2010 7:20 AM MST reply actions
If they do, is he going to write something nice about the Avs?
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
It's Kent
so he’ll have no problem with it. I should have made the bet with R O
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 15, 2010 7:59 AM MST up reply actions
I really liked your idea better….getting to slam the other team on their board. But whatever. If Kent wants to go the nicey nice route, so be it.
"I think you should win if you have a two-goal lead. When you stop playing and stop working hard, that's when the other team is going to be all over you the whole time." - Peter Forsberg
by NurseBeachie on Jan 15, 2010 8:29 AM MST up reply actions
Bet makes no sense
Let me get this straight if they Avs don’t get to 95 pts you have to write something nice about the Flames and when(that’s right I said when) the Avs finish with 95 + points he says something nice about the Avs. If he wants something nice to be said about his team then he should be hoping that the AVS get the 95+ pts so he can at least say that his Flames lost 4 times (to date and possibly more in the future) to a great team and not a mediocre one!
yeah
it’s a pretty mild bet. Nevertheless I’ll have a very difficult time saying something nice about them.
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 15, 2010 9:52 PM MST up reply actions
“The Calgary Flames are not quite as repulsive as the Detroit Red Wings”
Nice? Not exactly, but it’s the best I can do.
Forever grateful that Joe Sakic isn't a douche bag like Brett Favre.
by Rather Dashing on Jan 15, 2010 11:02 PM MST up reply actions
Dion Phaneuf, not a mass murder…we think.
I've learned that life is one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Jan 15, 2010 11:11 PM MST up reply actions
Dion Phaneuf, not a mass murder…allegedly.
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 16, 2010 8:55 PM MST up reply actions
Dion Phaneuf
insufficiently capable of standing up to another human being to be a mass murderer.
2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche - On the upside, there's only 34 more (regular season) games of Darcy Tucker left!
what a tool. I never get tired of watching that.
Get rid of the loser point
Beer: breakfast of champions
I love it… always will.
Sandie
"That’s the way we’ll win championships"- The Baron
by Sandie Gauthier on Jan 17, 2010 11:38 AM MST up reply actions
I don’t think the Avs will fall off a cliff this year, so long as key players stay healthy. IMO that’s what killed them last year. Hey, look at Detroit and how they are struggling with all their injuries and how many point they have lost because of it – BWHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!
Oh yeah, just a reminder in case you missed it:
Islanders: 6
Red Wings: 0
Colorado Avalanche: Please excuse the mess while we are under construction.
BTW
A heartfelt thanks goes out to the Kings…their beat-down on the Quackers last night shoved the Wings back down past the playoff line. Beautiful sight, even if it is only January.
"I think you should win if you have a two-goal lead. When you stop playing and stop working hard, that's when the other team is going to be all over you the whole time." - Peter Forsberg
by NurseBeachie on Jan 15, 2010 10:00 AM MST up reply actions
Last 35 games...
22-11-2= 46pts= 104 total
aka wishful thinking
"What do the Detroit Red Wings and the Titanic have in common?
They both look good until they hit the ice!"
Visit> avaholicsanonymousny.blogspot.com
by SportsDalaiLama on Jan 15, 2010 11:20 AM MST reply actions
Good thing the Avs are kicking ass
Because I lost my job today. I should be more stressed but I feel kind of good.
So just a warning for tomorrows game, if it seems like I am drunk for a day game, you know why.
Hopefully #9 is not ten less than #19
Bummer man
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 15, 2010 11:31 AM MST up reply actions
I guess a silver lining is I get to participate in mid day discussions again with all this free time.
Hopefully #9 is not ten less than #19
Maybe that can be your new job? You get paid in comments…..
by Brett Shumway on Jan 15, 2010 12:57 PM MST up reply actions
sorry dude
Hyphens cause writers more trouble than any other form of punctuation, except perhaps commas.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jan 16, 2010 7:01 AM MST up reply actions
I'm sorry.
That sucks a lot!!
What kind of work are looking for?
"You mess with our Hejduk and the Spirit of Lappy is coming!"-Jibbles
MHH- The Haiku capital of AvsNation.
Not sure what I am looking for right now. Want to do something different.
Hopefully #9 is not ten less than #19
I read this book and it helped lead me to teaching… I wouldn’t say it’s life transforming, but it might give you a jumping off point. The Keirsey Temperament Sorter and Meyers-Briggs are both personality tests that give insight into careers that match who you are but you might never have considered. We use them with our students with a great deal of success. Just some resources you might consider…
(Right click to open links with new window…I think I forgot to check the new window box…lol)
"I think you should win if you have a two-goal lead. When you stop playing and stop working hard, that's when the other team is going to be all over you the whole time." - Peter Forsberg
by NurseBeachie on Jan 15, 2010 3:30 PM MST up reply actions
= ( big ole boo-boo lip your way. sorry babe.
"I think you should win if you have a two-goal lead. When you stop playing and stop working hard, that's when the other team is going to be all over you the whole time." - Peter Forsberg
by NurseBeachie on Jan 15, 2010 12:14 PM MST up reply actions
Really sorry to hear it.
2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche - On the upside, there's only 35 more (regular season) games of Darcy Tucker left!
really sorry
this economy sucks worse than the 2008-2009 Avalanche.
Colorado Avalanche: Please excuse the mess while we are under construction.
Thanks everybody.
I’m thinking of using this time like a hobo vacation….okay not literally. But hey, I figured those taxes I have paid into unemployment services may come in handy.
Hopefully #9 is not ten less than #19
This. A thousand times this.
"I think you should win if you have a two-goal lead. When you stop playing and stop working hard, that's when the other team is going to be all over you the whole time." - Peter Forsberg
by NurseBeachie on Jan 15, 2010 3:31 PM MST up reply actions
Gah, shitty.
Sandie
"That’s the way we’ll win championships"- The Baron
by Sandie Gauthier on Jan 15, 2010 3:17 PM MST up reply actions
So here's a little story...
Going to tomorrow’s game. I’m taking me mum, she’s never been to Pepsi Center. So I decided to try for some good seats. I found a great deal on a website I’ve used before.
Got an email from a guy who said he lives in my old apartment and got a fedex for me. He said it looked important and there was no way to forward, so he opened it. Sees that they’re my tickets, and sees my email address on the shipping label so he got in touch with me. He could have said “sweet, free Avs tickets.” Or put them on Craigslist and made a little money.
Double checked my order, I updated my address and everything, the confirmation looks right, they still sent it to my old address.
So I feel like I somehow owe this guy. He’s an 89 year old man, just lost his wife last year. I said I felt like I should take him, he said “no, maybe years ago but I don’t get out a whole lot anymore.” He said he was a Blackhawks fan from way back.
I feel like I should do something for him. Like maybe go watch the Avs/Blackhawks with him, but that isn’t for a while. He was extremely nice, asked if I wanted to stay for a drink and talk hockey, but I couldn’t on the day I picked them up. Anyone have any suggestions for what I might do?
"I clearly miscalculated how popular it would be to show Calvin urinating on a Ford logo"--Bill Watterson
by frightened inmate #2 on Jan 15, 2010 12:09 PM MST reply actions
This is an awesome story!!
I’m so glad to hear that there are still honest people out there.
I think your idea of taking him to the Hawks Avs game is great. If he doesn’t get out much anymore, maybe you could make a point of seeing if he wanted to just watch a game sometime.
Maybe ChiAvsFan will have some ideas, he’s also (quietly) a Hawks fan. and actually has some limited access to the team.
"You mess with our Hejduk and the Spirit of Lappy is coming!"-Jibbles
MHH- The Haiku capital of AvsNation.
That’s pretty cool. I would buy beer, but that probably doesn’t work on an 89yr old. Although you never know. After all, how many 89yr olds know how to use the intermails?
Get rid of the loser point
TheRed: MHH's ninth ranked post-whore. Thank God for the internets or I'd have no life
He was offering bloody marys before, so you never know.
"I clearly miscalculated how popular it would be to show Calvin urinating on a Ford logo"--Bill Watterson
by frightened inmate #2 on Jan 15, 2010 12:31 PM MST up reply actions
Any old school Hawks fan is gonna love a beer. If he can’t / won’t go to a game, offer to take him somewhere to watch it and/or to have him over for some eats and beer to watch the game.
2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche - On the upside, there's only 35 more (regular season) games of Darcy Tucker left!
This.
"I think you should win if you have a two-goal lead. When you stop playing and stop working hard, that's when the other team is going to be all over you the whole time." - Peter Forsberg
by NurseBeachie on Jan 15, 2010 1:04 PM MST up reply actions
This.
He sounds lonely, having someone to spend time with is probably the best things for him.
Sandie
"That’s the way we’ll win championships"- The Baron
by Sandie Gauthier on Jan 15, 2010 3:19 PM MST up reply actions
Wow, what a great feel-good story. Definitely tell ChiAvsFan. That would be something he might want to run on the radio out there. He might be able to pull some strings and get some kind of autographed something or other…
"I think you should win if you have a two-goal lead. When you stop playing and stop working hard, that's when the other team is going to be all over you the whole time." - Peter Forsberg
by NurseBeachie on Jan 15, 2010 12:17 PM MST up reply actions
Home Away from Home
The AVS have 22 home games left and only 13 away games.
Their record at home is 11-6-2. Winning percentage = 57%
Their away record is 15-9-4 Winning Percentage = 53%
If the AVS stick with these numbers than all will be right in the world, but I for one would like to see them play a little better at home.
In listening to the players talk about the meager success at home, they almost always mention something about the fans helping them win. C’mon people! Get your asses to the games and get loud!! At least if we do make the playoffs, THOSE home games will sell out and the team will be so surprised that they may do really well this post season. (I’m just happy to be talking about the post season again!)
The thing is – the Avs have had no real long homestands yet. 5 games in a row, or 7 of 8 game stretch, is the season high, followed by a couple of 3 game homestands.
Due to this, its not beyond the realm of probability that the Avs play better at home. Indeed, having to travel less and not heavily participate in the olympics, may help them fatigue wise (especially seeing as a lot of this team is still young). At least one source thinks that the Avs have the most significant home court advantage or bias in our favour. All in all, hopefully that adds up to slightly more success than thus far at home.
90 points?
I like how 99% of us think the Avs will score 90 points or better. What was the over/under before the season started, 62? 65?
My hockey team is spoiling me. Now if I could just get the guy who sets ticket prices to do the same.
If Santa comes down my chimney wearing those Red Wing colors, he's going to wish he didn't exist.
Well the Avs only have to win 16 more games to hit 90 points (or add in a couple of loser points to get those 32 points). With 35 more games that’s a little less then half their games, unless they face another complete melt down they should hit that.
The 2009-10 Avalanche: Have the wheels fallen off?
I'm The Canary - but I'm not cute nor cuddly, and I don't sing.
by Americanario on Jan 15, 2010 5:35 PM MST up reply actions
90 points
will have them on the outside looking in at the playoffs. I think the cut line will be 99. They need to go at least .500 (on wins) with a few loser points to make the playoffs in the West.
The worst possible result is to end up 9th in the West. You’ll have the last pick of the non-playoff teams and no playoff experience (or revenue) to show for your season. This is a recipe for mediocracy.
If the Avs were drifting toward 90 points, I’d ship guys like Duchene, Yip, and O’Reilly to the Monsters so they have a chance to feel some playoff pressure while the Avs plummet in the standings toward a better draft. I guess that assumes the Monsters will be close to a playoff spot.
Games are worth only 2 points, DAMMIT!!
by Busted Twigg on Jan 15, 2010 6:46 PM MST up reply actions
The comment was directed at Dixomatic pointing out that most of us think the Avs will score at least that many points. Looking at what they have to do to get to at least 90pts, it would take something pretty harsh for them to not make that mark (which would be a hell of an improvement over last season). However, if they keep playing like they have, they should be in that 95-105 points range. Even winning 50% of their remaining games (17-18) without trying to predict any loser points would put them between 92-94pts.
As for Duchene and O’Reilly going down if the Avs don’t make the playoffs…they can’t they are too young to play in the AHL. They would they could only go their minors clubs of Brampton and Erie…and I don’t think going back down for that level of playoff experience would help them right now.
The 2009-10 Avalanche: Have the wheels fallen off?
I'm The Canary - but I'm not cute nor cuddly, and I don't sing.
by Americanario on Jan 15, 2010 6:55 PM MST up reply actions
YOUR ATTENTION PLEASE!!!
Predators 1, Lames 0
That is all.
"It comes from motivation within" - Matt Hendricks
Mile High Mayhem just another ho-hum Avs blog.
Yeah they can't score for shit. Ouch.
Avalanche 2009-2010: Ostensibly, the worst team in the league. Realistically, top of the NW division.
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