FanPost

Avs After 47 - Comparisons and Reasonable Expectations



After the Avs triumphant return to 1st in the Northwest and a 5 day holiday for the team - now is a time (not a good time - 41 games would be a good time) to look at where the Avs sit and what some reasonable expectations are for the rest of the season.  

Here is the record and the amount of points that the Avs have obtained in each season post-lockout:

  • 2005-06: 27-17-3 = 57 points.
  • 2006-07: 24-20-3 = 51 points.
  • 2007-08: 25-18-4 = 54 points.
  • 2008-09: 23-23-1 = 47 points.
  • 2009-10: 26-15-6 = 58 points.

From this, if this trend continues then this could be the Avs best season post-lockout. However, as last season showed, using the 1st half (or 47 games) to predict the 2nd half (or 35 games) doesn't always work:

  • 2005-06: 57 pts in 47 GP = 99 expected pts in 82 GP, 94 actual pts (-5).
  • 2006-07: 89 expected pts, 95 actual pts (+6).
  • 2007-08: 94 expected pts, 95 actual pts (+1).
  • 2008-09: 82 expected pts, 69 actual pts (-13).
  • 2009-10: 101 expected pts.

Now, even if the Avs do fall off the cliff, it can be expected that this only will have about a 10 point effect on the actual points obtained by the end of the year. Further, there are two reasons why it is unlikely that the Avs will depart that strongly from their current record. Firstly, the Avs road record looks very good. Taking a cue from BiB, when you go Doug Moe across seasons - the Avs also have a good chance of having the best away record this season of any season post-lockout:

  • 2005-06: 18-20-3
  • 2006-07: 22-15-4
  • 2007-08: 17-19-5
  • 2008-09: 14-24-3
  • 2009-10 thus far: 15-9-4

To beat the exceptional road results seen in 2006-07, which was powered by a 10-0-2 finish on the road to end the season, the '09-'10 Avs only have to go 7-6-0 the rest of the way to match this.

Secondly, the Avs shootout skills are not very good this year:

  • 2005-06: 4-3
  • 2006-07: 4-3
  • 2007-08: 6-4
  • 2008-09: 8-1
  • 2009-10: 5-6

The fact that the Avs have this year had a relative lack of success in the shootout and still remain where they are would appear to be a positive. Also, this makes it less likely that the bubble will burst like it did with the '08-'09 Avs and they will plunge in the standings.

In light of this, its poll time: 

MileHighHockey.com is a fan community, allowing members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Colorado Avalanche and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editors of MileHighHockey.com.

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