Just How Bad Are the Avs with a 2-Goal Lead?
by HugoAgogo on Jan 19, 2010 5:41 PM MST
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Despite the successes of the Avs to this point, when the Avs have a 2-goal lead it appears that there is an impending sense of doom as the opposition mounts their comeback. So, how often does this happen and what are the results of such games?
More after the jump...
This season the Avs have been in 8 games where they have had a 2-goal lead that they have lost:
- Game 5 versus Boston (a 4-3 win)
- Game 10 versus Carolina (5-4 W)
- Game 22 versus Edmonton (4-6 L)
- Game 23 versus Vancouver (2-5 L)
- Game 24 versus Philadelphia (5-4 W)
- Game 27 versus Minnesota (3-5 L)
- Game 39 versus Anaheim (2-4 L)
- Game 46 versus Buffalo (4-3 SOW)
Now, the results from these games is 4 wins and 4 losses. So basically when the Avs surrender a 2-goal lead, you might as well flip a coin to determine the result. The results look even less positive if this is broken down by period:
- 1st Period: 1 occasion
- 2nd Period: 2 occasions
- 3rd Period: 5 occasions
The record of the Avs when the opponent comes back in the 3rd period: 1 win (the shootout against Buffalo), 4 losses. So yes, now you can feel comfortable knowing that when the Avs give up a 2-goal lead in the 3rd period the game is probably going to end badly. Hopefully, the Avs have rounded the corner though from the period between Game 22 and 27 where they gave up 2-goal leads 4 times in 6 games.
However, looking into this 2-goal lead phenomenon deeper something interesting arises. Namely, the Avs record in games where they've came back from a 2-goal deficit, which has occurred on 8 occasions also:
- Game 8 versus Detroit (4-3 SOW)
- Game 10 versus Carolina (a 5-4 win and the only game to see both teams have 2 goal leads)
- Game 13 versus Calgary (3-2 W)
- Game 17 versus Chicago (4-3 SOW)
- Game 25 versus Nashville (3-4 OTL)
- Game 29 versus Florida (5-6 SOL)
- Game 42 versus Detroit (2-4 L)
- Game 47 versus Calgary (3-2 SOW)
This is an exceptional 5-1-2 record. Notably, only 3 of these games have ended in regulation whereas 7 out of 8 did when it is the Avs giving up the lead.
Clearly, the Avs are not the only team that gives up 2-goal leads. They are also not the only team to lose after giving up such a lead. However, they are irregular in the fact that they do not scramble to pick up the 'loser point' that would inflate their record in such games.
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My main issue:
We gave away 9 points when leading after 2. We could have a HUGE lead right now.
"It comes from motivation within" - Matt Hendricks
Mile High Mayhem just another ho-hum Avs blog.
My main issue is the manner in which they play during the third period.
Sandie
"That’s the way we’ll win championships"- The Baron
by Sandie Gauthier on Jan 19, 2010 9:18 PM MST reply actions
this
"I think you should win if you have a two-goal lead. When you stop playing and stop working hard, that's when the other team is going to be all over you the whole time." - Peter Forsberg
by NurseBeachie on Jan 19, 2010 9:44 PM MST up reply actions
nicely done
Hyphens cause writers more trouble than any other form of punctuation, except perhaps commas.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jan 20, 2010 5:31 AM MST reply actions
I feel like the Avs go into a completely defensive mode when leading in the third. They aren’t actually playing the trap, but it seems like something similar as there is very little forechecking in most cases. I dunno if this was a coaching strategy or what, but hopefully it’s fixed.
Put It On Ice A blog focusing on the Colorado Avalanche, Syracuse Crunch, and Michigan Wolverines.
They have identified the problem to an extent, as I have heard them saying they need to be more aggressive and not let up on opponents. Putting that theory into practice? Well, I think they’re making progress, but not quite there yet.
Get rid of the loser point
Beer: breakfast of champions
They need to be more aggressive and not let up on opponents
I tried looking at if there was an uneven home and away split in the games where they surrendered a 2-Goal lead in order to see if some sort of fatigue or home crowd effect was at play. There were slightly more instances where 2-Goal leads were surrendered away than at home, but I doubt it is significant.
I think it is reasonable to expect that the Avs uptempo style is something that will fatigue a player slightly quicker than a trap or a cycling system of play. Also, I think that the fact that these are mostly kids in the Avs means there has been a period of them getting used to playing NHL-intensity hockey period in and out.
Goals-by-Period says it all
Goals For By Period:
46-56-40
Goals Against By Period:
36-40-53
I should never be taken seriously.... Seriously!
In the “new” NHL, the 2-goal lead doesn’t mean as much as it did prior to the lockout. While it is frustrating to not put the clamp down on those games, i don’t see it as a huge concern. What the Avs haven’t done is blown any 3-goal leads, and as mentioned above, have done their fair share of coming back from 2-goal deficits.
They do need to figure 3rd periods out. I think a lot of it is just experience. The third period is the money period, and the opposition is coming with everything they have. Veteran teams know the tricks of the trade, and how to close out games. The cliche of having to “learn how to win” fits this team. After all the Avs are the youngest team in the NHL. Next year, with a weatherman’s confidence, i predict that the Avs will not repeat their third period woes of this season.
Sports don't build character, they reveal it
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