## Avs' win percentage in terms of deficit/lead and game clock

The two most recent FanPosts "Just How Bad Are the Avs with a 2-Goal Lead?" and "Chances of Making the Playoffs" really got my brain juices flowing, and like everyone else around here, I wanted to break things down a different way.  I painstakingly went through each box score of the year, noting the time of each goal scored and the outcome of each game.  After getting all that set up, I created a chart showing the Avs winning percentage, based on the deficit/lead at a particular point in the game.

The leftmost column represents the amount of time passed in each period, so it runs from 0 to 20 minutes 3 times, in 30-second increments. 0:00 represents the period of time from 0:00 to 0:29, etc so any goal scored in the first 29 seconds of a period would fall into that slot.  Across the top, the deficit/lead runs from -6 to +6, -6 being times the Avs trailed by six and +6 obviously being the Avs winning by six.  The actual percentage indicates how often the Avs WON, not how often they earned at least a point.  An OT loss is still a loss as far as this table is concerned.  Any "NA" entry indicates that the particular situation has yet to occur this year, i.e. the Avs haven't trailed by 6 in the first 30 seconds of play.   Probably the most interesting thing that I found in the table is the fact that the Avs have won every single game where they were down by 2 in the first 6 minutes of the game. So...do that more?

It could be argued that a 5-4 lead is much different from a 1-0 lead, and I would agree with that.  In fact, I made a table that breaks the percentages down by score rather than deficit/lead, but it's too large to fit on a FanPost so I will have to enjoy it by myself.  I've set this up to easily update after each game is played, so I'm looking forward to pulling some interesting information out of it as the season plays out.

 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 0:00 NA NA NA NA NA NA 55.3% 100.0% NA NA NA NA NA 0:30 NA NA NA NA NA 100.0% 53.3% 100.0% NA NA NA NA NA 1:00 NA NA NA NA 100.0% NA 52.3% 100.0% NA NA NA NA NA 1:30 NA NA NA NA 100.0% 0.0% 54.8% 100.0% NA NA NA NA NA 2:00 NA NA NA NA 100.0% 0.0% 55.0% 83.3% NA NA NA NA NA 2:30 NA NA NA NA 100.0% 0.0% 56.4% 71.4% NA NA NA NA NA 3:00 NA NA NA NA 100.0% 40.0% 54.3% 71.4% 100.0% NA NA NA NA 3:30 NA NA NA NA 100.0% 33.3% 55.9% 71.4% 100.0% NA NA NA NA 4:00 NA NA NA NA 100.0% 33.3% 57.6% 62.5% NA 100.0% NA NA NA 4:30 NA NA NA NA 100.0% 28.6% 59.4% 62.5% NA 100.0% NA NA NA 5:00 NA NA NA NA 100.0% 28.6% 61.3% 55.6% NA 100.0% NA NA NA 5:30 NA NA NA NA 100.0% 12.5% 69.0% 37.5% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 6:00 NA NA NA NA 100.0% 22.2% 65.4% 50.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 6:30 NA NA NA NA 100.0% 22.2% 65.4% 44.4% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 7:00 NA NA NA NA 66.7% 25.0% 65.4% 44.4% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 7:30 NA NA NA NA 50.0% 33.3% 64.0% 50.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 8:00 NA NA NA NA 50.0% 37.5% 63.6% 50.0% 100.0% NA 100.0% NA NA 8:30 NA NA NA NA 50.0% 44.4% 61.9% 53.8% 66.7% NA 100.0% NA NA 9:00 NA NA NA NA 50.0% 44.4% 57.1% 61.5% 66.7% NA 100.0% NA NA 9:30 NA NA NA NA 50.0% 50.0% 57.9% 57.1% 66.7% NA 100.0% NA NA 10:00 NA NA NA NA 50.0% 50.0% 57.9% 57.1% 66.7% NA 100.0% NA NA 10:30 NA NA NA 0.0% 66.7% 50.0% 57.9% 57.1% 66.7% NA 100.0% NA NA 11:00 NA NA NA 0.0% 66.7% 44.4% 61.1% 57.1% 66.7% NA 100.0% NA NA 11:30 NA NA NA 0.0% 66.7% 44.4% 58.8% 60.0% 66.7% NA 100.0% NA NA 12:00 NA NA NA 0.0% 66.7% 54.5% 50.0% 62.5% 66.7% NA 100.0% NA NA 12:30 NA NA NA 0.0% 66.7% 54.5% 50.0% 62.5% 66.7% NA 100.0% NA NA 13:00 NA NA NA 0.0% 66.7% 54.5% 46.2% 62.5% 75.0% NA 100.0% NA NA 13:30 NA NA NA 0.0% 66.7% 54.5% 46.2% 62.5% 75.0% NA 100.0% NA NA 14:00 NA NA NA 0.0% 66.7% 54.5% 46.2% 62.5% 75.0% NA 100.0% NA NA 14:30 NA NA NA 0.0% 66.7% 50.0% 45.5% 64.7% 75.0% NA 100.0% NA NA 15:00 NA NA NA 0.0% 66.7% 50.0% 41.7% 66.7% 80.0% NA 100.0% NA NA 15:30 NA NA NA 0.0% 66.7% 50.0% 41.7% 66.7% 80.0% NA 100.0% NA NA 16:00 NA NA NA 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 45.5% 66.7% 80.0% NA 100.0% NA NA 16:30 NA NA NA 0.0% 50.0% 41.7% 50.0% 71.4% 80.0% NA 100.0% NA NA 17:00 NA NA NA 0.0% 33.3% 45.5% 50.0% 71.4% 80.0% NA 100.0% NA NA 17:30 NA NA NA 0.0% 33.3% 41.7% 53.8% 76.9% 66.7% NA 100.0% NA NA 18:00 NA NA NA 0.0% 33.3% 41.7% 50.0% 83.3% 66.7% NA 100.0% NA NA 18:30 NA NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 76.9% 71.4% NA 100.0% NA NA 19:00 NA NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 54.5% 50.0% 76.9% 71.4% NA 100.0% NA NA 19:30 NA NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 54.5% 36.4% 85.7% 71.4% NA 100.0% NA NA 0:00 NA NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 54.5% 38.5% 84.6% 83.3% NA 100.0% NA NA 0:30 NA NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 60.0% 38.5% 84.6% 83.3% NA 100.0% NA NA 1:00 NA NA NA 0.0% 16.7% 55.6% 41.7% 76.9% 85.7% NA 100.0% NA NA 1:30 NA NA NA 0.0% 16.7% 50.0% 46.2% 76.9% 85.7% NA 100.0% NA NA 2:00 NA NA NA 0.0% 16.7% 50.0% 46.2% 76.9% 85.7% NA 100.0% NA NA 2:30 NA NA NA 0.0% 16.7% 50.0% 46.2% 76.9% 85.7% NA 100.0% NA NA 3:00 NA NA NA 0.0% 16.7% 55.6% 41.7% 76.9% 85.7% 100.0% NA NA NA 3:30 NA NA NA 0.0% 33.3% 44.4% 41.7% 76.9% 85.7% 100.0% NA NA NA 4:00 NA NA NA 0.0% 40.0% 50.0% 38.5% 71.4% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 4:30 NA NA NA 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 38.5% 66.7% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 5:00 NA NA NA 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 38.5% 61.5% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 5:30 NA NA NA 0.0% 66.7% 44.4% 41.7% 53.8% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 6:00 NA NA NA 0.0% 50.0% 44.4% 36.4% 58.3% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 6:30 NA NA NA 0.0% 50.0% 44.4% 30.0% 61.5% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 7:00 NA NA NA 0.0% 50.0% 44.4% 30.0% 61.5% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 7:30 NA NA NA 0.0% 50.0% 37.5% 36.4% 64.3% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 8:00 NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 40.0% 42.9% 36.4% 66.7% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 8:30 NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 40.0% 42.9% 30.0% 68.8% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 9:00 NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 30.0% 64.3% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 9:30 NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 30.0% 61.5% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 10:00 NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 30.0% 61.5% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 10:30 NA NA 0.0% NA 25.0% 50.0% 30.0% 61.5% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 11:00 NA NA 0.0% NA 33.3% 50.0% 25.0% 72.7% 88.9% 100.0% NA NA NA 11:30 NA NA 0.0% NA 33.3% 42.9% 35.7% 70.0% 88.9% 100.0% NA NA NA 12:00 NA NA 0.0% NA 33.3% 42.9% 35.7% 70.0% 87.5% 100.0% NA NA NA 12:30 NA NA 0.0% NA 33.3% 37.5% 38.5% 70.0% 87.5% 100.0% NA NA NA 13:00 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 50.0% 36.4% 63.6% 88.9% 100.0% NA NA NA 13:30 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 50.0% 30.0% 63.6% 90.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 14:00 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 44.4% 36.4% 60.0% 90.9% 100.0% NA NA NA 14:30 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 44.4% 40.0% 54.5% 90.9% 100.0% NA NA NA 15:00 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 44.4% 44.4% 45.5% 90.9% 100.0% NA NA NA 15:30 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 44.4% 44.4% 45.5% 90.9% 100.0% NA NA NA 16:00 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 42.9% 45.5% 54.5% 90.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 16:30 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 42.9% 50.0% 44.4% 90.9% 100.0% NA NA NA 17:00 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 42.9% 50.0% 44.4% 90.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 17:30 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 44.4% 90.0% 100.0% NA NA NA 18:00 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 40.0% 53.8% 37.5% 90.9% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA 18:30 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 40.0% 53.8% 37.5% 90.9% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA 19:00 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 33.3% 50.0% 44.4% 90.9% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA 19:30 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 28.6% 50.0% 45.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA 0:00 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 28.6% 50.0% 45.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA 0:30 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 28.6% 50.0% 45.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA 1:00 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 28.6% 50.0% 45.5% 100.0% 100.0% NA 100.0% NA 1:30 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 28.6% 50.0% 50.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA 100.0% NA 2:00 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 28.6% 50.0% 50.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA 100.0% NA 2:30 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 28.6% 45.5% 54.5% 100.0% 100.0% NA 100.0% NA 3:00 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 28.6% 45.5% 60.0% 90.0% 100.0% NA 100.0% NA 3:30 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 33.3% 45.5% 60.0% 90.0% 100.0% NA 100.0% NA 4:00 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 33.3% 45.5% 63.6% 87.5% 100.0% NA 100.0% NA 4:30 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 33.3% 41.7% 66.7% 88.9% 100.0% NA 100.0% NA 5:00 NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 20.0% 42.9% 75.0% 87.5% 100.0% NA 100.0% NA 5:30 NA 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 38.5% 77.8% 87.5% 100.0% NA NA 100.0% 6:00 NA 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 38.5% 77.8% 87.5% 100.0% NA NA 100.0% 6:30 NA 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 38.5% 75.0% 88.9% 100.0% NA NA 100.0% 7:00 NA 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 41.7% 75.0% 88.9% 100.0% NA NA 100.0% 7:30 NA 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 45.5% 70.0% 88.9% 100.0% NA NA 100.0% 8:00 NA 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 50.0% 66.7% 88.9% 100.0% NA NA 100.0% 8:30 NA 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 54.5% 70.0% 87.5% 100.0% NA NA 100.0% 9:00 NA 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 50.0% 75.0% 85.7% 100.0% NA NA 100.0% 9:30 NA 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 45.5% 75.0% 85.7% 100.0% NA NA 100.0% 10:00 NA 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 45.5% 75.0% 85.7% 100.0% NA NA 100.0% 10:30 NA 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 45.5% 75.0% 85.7% 100.0% NA NA 100.0% 11:00 NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 50.0% 81.8% 87.5% 100.0% NA NA 100.0% 11:30 NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 45.5% 81.8% 87.5% 100.0% NA NA 100.0% 12:00 NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 75.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA NA 100.0% 12:30 NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 46.2% 81.8% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA 100.0% 13:00 NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 46.2% 83.3% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA 100.0% 13:30 NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 41.7% 84.6% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA 100.0% 14:00 NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 41.7% 85.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA 100.0% 14:30 NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45.5% 85.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA 100.0% 15:00 NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 38.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA 100.0% 15:30 NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 42.9% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA 100.0% 16:00 NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 46.2% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA 100.0% 16:30 NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA 100.0% 17:00 NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA 100.0% 17:30 NA 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA 100.0% 18:00 NA 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA 100.0% 18:30 NA 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA 100.0% 19:00 NA 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA 100.0% 19:30 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% NA 100.0%

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