Avalanche Blogger Roundtable: Question 6

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Question 6 of The Avalanche Blogger Roundtable brings us to the end of day 2. We'll be back tomorrow with the last three questions.

Question 1: Avalanche attendance woes

Question 2: Avalanche toughness

Question 3: Craig Anderson, workhorse

Question 4: Improvement on defense

Question 5: Offensive defenseman

 

Joe Sakic scored 62 points as a 19-year-old rookie with the Nordiques and then improved to 102-points his sophomore year. 19-year-old Matt Duchene scored 55 points last year. What kind of point total can we expect from Duchene next year?

Once again, Jay Vean of The Avs Hockey Podcast has his answers in podcast form via this link.

Matt Jordan, Mile High Mayhem: Duchene looks like the Joe Sakic type, even in work ethic. I could see a solid 80 point season this season.

Derek Bell, Mile High Hockey: I think Matt Duchene is going to score 40 goals and rack up 62 assists and match his childhood idol in points in his sophomore season.

Frenchy, Real Denver Sports: I'm a big fan and believer in Duchene.  I don't really like to compare him to Joe Sakic though.  Joe is part of an elite group of players that we shouldn't go comparing up and coming stars to willy nilly.  That being said, I do believe that Duchene will produce more this season.  Duchene has said that he always wants to get better so I'm guessing that he went home this off season and worked accordingly to get himself ready for season 2.  Now that he knows what it takes to be a good player in this league, watch for him to make an impressive showing.  I'm thinking Duchene will at least get 90 points this season but hey, if he can get 102 points, hell yeah!!! 

Mike Thompson, Mile High Hockey: I'm guessing Duchene's 82-game point pace will be somewhere between 65-75 points.  I'd hope for a bigger bump, but defenses aren't going to sleep on him this year and I'm not convinced that old-man Hejduk is enough of a threat to keep d-men honest when Dutchy's line is on the ice.

Shane Giroux, Avs Talk: I'm pegging Duchene for 75-80 points this year. It may be a modest projection but as much as I love Duchene already, I think he'll need another year to really become dominant and get to that 100-point area. His work at the World Championships showed that he'll get there so let's all be patient and wait for it to happen.

David Púchovský, Eurolanche: Do not compare Sakic to anyone, or Duchene too. Do you remember slow start from Matty from the start of the last season? It was shock for him to move from juniors to NHL directly. But later, the show started. Duchene is the biggest talent on the roster and he will be only better. If he will stay healthy, we can expect 85 points at least.

Ryan Boulding, The Burgundy Blog: Duchene admitted last season that he is always a slow starter - from his years in Juniors and up. So, despite his lack of production in the preseason, I feel that he'll build upon his numbers from last season. You can see a bright future every time Duchene makes a move and nearly pulls of some Forsberg-esque greatness. He looks bigger, he looks faster, and we all know there is amazing talent there. Once his hands catch up with his legs, Duchene will really be a force to be reckoned with. Look for him to really step it up as the season progresses.

Jibblescribbits, JibbleScribbits: Last season Duchene's season kind of mirrored Steven Stamkos' 1st season, where he played well but couldn't put the points up. Then he kept at it and ended up with a very successful rookie campaign. His next season he had 51 goals. So I'm predicting 102 points, 51 of which will be goals.

Courtney Beckham, Chicks Who Give A Puck: Duchene did a lot of growing throughout the season, learning how to play two way hockey and adapting to having the pressure on him. He certainly has the potential to pull a Sakic if he puts in the time and dedication to continue his learning process, to continue working on his skills, he can do it. He's surrounded by other talented, young forwards where he can step up and make things happen. It's just a matter of if he does. If he's not hitting above 80 points this season it's not from lack of talent.

Marc Parsons, Hendricks Hockey: Wow, wouldnt that be great for Dutchy to reach the 100 point mark in his sophomore year. I'm going to be realistic and say he reach's the 70-80 mark this year. I believe that with three lines of potential scoring threats, there is going to be more players putting up career numbers this year.

Paul's Coffey, Mile High Hockey: Pass the Dutchie on the left hand side of 70 points.

David Driscoll-Carignan, Mile High Hockey: The Matt Duchene from last April scores about 80 points this year. The Matt Duchene from September maybe scores 45. Since September doesn't count, 80 it is. 100 wouldn't surprise me. Oh, and I hope you all enjoyed Paul Coffey's last post at MHH!

Andy Robbins, Avs Weekly: Matt Duchene is an elite hockey player. Make absolutely no mistake about that. Goals will be coming much easier to this youngster during the 2010-2011 season. Duchene and Hejduk are developing a scary amount of chemistry as well, so keep an eye out for that. Duchene is sincerely rock solid. Lower body strength is really going to play a large part in his success. Duchene is insanely creative down low in the offensive zone. People missing Peter Forsberg? Quit it! The amount of space Duchene is able to create for himself and other linemates is uncanny and absolutely thrilling to watch firsthand. As for point totals, let's be conservative and settle on a 70+ point season this year. You know we would all LOVE to see considerably more out of him, but for the sake of an accurate prediction, let's just stay at 70+. It has been awhile since an Avalanche player was top-10 in league scoring, so the moderate approach to guessing Duchene's totals seems to be best. The last time an Avalanche player was in the top 10 for points, was Joe Sakic in 2006-2007 with 100 points.

Nic Zamora, Avaholics Anonymous: With the work ethic that kid has, I would say somewhere around a point per game total would be a decent expectation. He's not only got that work ethic, but he also has the skills and the drive to keep getting better. If he can reach a Sakic level for his 2nd season, that's great but he is the face of our team right now and placing a Sakic level of expectations could be damaging to his development.

Jibblescribbits, Jibblescribbits: Last season Duchene's season kind of mirrored Steven Stamkos' 1st season, where he played well but couldn't put the points up. Then he kept at it and ended up with a very successful rookie campaign. His next season he had 51 goals. So I'm predicting 102 points, 51 of which will be goals.

Jaye Horbay, Patrick Kane's Loose Change: I think a lot of what we see from Duchene will be dependent on what we see from his line mates. He had great chemistry with Mueller after the trade deadline. A monkey can score 50 points with ‘Duke. So with healthy line mates, he could be in for big numbers. But if either one goes in the tank, can Dutchy go at it alone? I smell a break out year for #9 if the pieces fall into place

Adam Hersh, An Avalanche of Thoughts: Though he had a dismal pre-season, I still see Matty-D’s point total improving. If I had to guess, I’d put him in the 65-70 point range, behind both Paul Stastny and Chris Stewart for the team lead

Aaron Musick, Hockeybuzz: Depends on if they give him linemates he can work with. If he's with Ryan Stoa, he won't have a chance to do so. However, with a healthy David Jones or Brandon Yip with him and Hejduk, he could. However, Joe Sakic was Joe Sakic and, as of now, I don't think Duchene is as good as Sakic. That's not a knock on him, I like him a lot and actually see more Peter Forsberg in his game than I do Joe Sakic (Foppa by the way jumped from 50 points in his rookie year to 116 the next year, FWIW,) but I think he's just not as polished a player as Sakic was when he came into the league but then again, Sakic was a special player and ones like him don't come around too often.

Mike Verminski, Put It On Ice & The Hockey Writers: I suspect Dutchy could pull off a 70 point season. He has that first year under his belt so it's not new anymore and he knows what to expect day in and day out. I think an important key to him racking up a lot of points is the team staying healthy and the lines remaining the same.

Geoff, The Avslova Factor: Most people are expecting big things from Duchene this year, and I'm not going to be the one to bring the doom-and-gloom to the Avalanche Roundtable. The Sophomore Slump is possible, but if Steven Stamkos can avoid it, so can Dutchy. Taking into account all the posts he hit at the beginning of last season, as well as the "Darcy Tucker Factor" (or non-factor), I think a 30 goal, 45-50 assist season is certainly in reach. 

Matt Powell, The Burgundy Blog: Now that Duchene's freshman year in the NHL is over, I think we'll see him a bit more relaxed and shooting the puck more. Pair him with the right guys and we'll see a lot of production from not only Duchene, but his entire line.

Sean Payton, Anyone But Detroit:

  • 102 pts is not possible for Duchene.
  • The NHL was a much different league in the late 1980's - watch NHL Network sometime - at least 50% of the goals that got scored in 1989 would be considered "soft" in 2010.
  • Look for 70-80 points this year for #9.
  • (Prove me wrong, Matty!)

Angélique Murray, Avs Prospects, Mile High Hockey, Chicks Who Give A Puck: I don't see Matt Duchene having a Joe Sakic or Steven Stamkos like sophomore season.  I think he'll land somewhere in the 70-80 point range for the Avs this year.

Terry Frei, The Denver Post: He's a huge student of the game and he knows not just history, but exactly what Steven Stamkos did, virtually game by game, as a rookie and then in his amazing second season. I expect Duchene to step up his scoring this season, but it's too much to expect him to put up Stamkos numbers. A point a game pace is probably realistic - say, 32 and 50.

Stephen Crociata, Patrick Kane's Loose Change: I definitely see Duchene improving on his numbers from last season but how much he improves all depends on his line mates. Healthy decent seasons from Duke and Mueller will enable Duchene to have around a point per game (80-90 pts) at worst I see Duchene putting up 30-40-70 this season.

 

And so day 2 of the Roundtable comes to a close. But before we close the books on this one, make sure you get a chance to weigh in below. Yes, I am running out of created of ways to say "okay, discuss".

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