Tough Decisions Ahead

While the 2009-10 edition of the Avalanche is more consistent than the 08-09 version, the recent three game losing streak confirmed what many already knew:  the young team lacks a consistent killer instinct.  Among other things.  Don't get me wrong, this team has far exceeded expectations and is by no means out of contention.  Too many pundits have constantly pronounced the Avs DOA after every rough patch there has been this year.  While I don't qualify as a pundit, I'm certainly not here to conduct an autopsy.  The pundits will certainly point to the more experienced teams in Washington, Pittsburgh, Chicago and San Jose, who are finding ways to win every game.  The Avs, not so much.  Granted, it may be a dubious comparison given the talent levels of the aforementioned teams, but if they are what the Avs aspire to be then that is the standard by which they must be measured.  I will also once again concede the fact that this team was not expected to do this much to begin with.  But as long as they lack the killer instinct, there will always be pundits standing in line to deliver their eulogy.

With the Olympic break and trade deadline looming, it is clear that the Avs brass have some very tough decisions ahead, none of which are easy.  The next two weeks will go a long way in determining if those decisions get easier or tougher.  One thing that is clear is that if the current edition of the Avs hope to make any splash in the post-season, they will have to attain that consistent killer instinct and quickly.  It is also clear that the cost of acquiring said killer instinct may not be worth the long shot hopes of significant playoff success.  The surprising success of this season aside, it may be time for them to come back down to Earth.

When you are a young team, you learn to win by learning from how you lost.  Experienced teams find a way to get the game to overtime when it's tied late in the third.  Experienced teams don't give up third period leads.  Experienced teams will take care of the teams below them in the standings and find a way to beat those above.  The Avs are doing none of these things consistently.  Sure, they mopped the floor with lowly Edmonton and handled Dallas at home.  They subsequently fell into the Minnesota trap, couldn't handle Dallas on the road and couldn't score more goals than an anemic New York Rangers offense.  Let's look at the goalies they've been unable to solve:  Josh Harding, Alex Auld and Chad Johnson.  With all due respect to these netminders, they aren't cornerstone goaltenders.  Yet, the Avs managed a total of 3 goals in the 3 games against them.  Again, it's important to remain on Earth in this discussion.

I will grant you that the Avs are among the top 5 teams in the league in man games lost to injury, but we are always told that injuries can't be an excuse.  Besides, if you look at the players who have missed considerable time, only Milan Hejduk and David Jones really account for a significant amount of offense.  Yes, you don't lose those two without feeling it, but there are players on this team that are counted on for their offense and they aren't consistently producing, despite being healthy.

Paul Stastny is probably atop this list.  While I will acknowledge that Stastny's numbers are consistent with those he's put up in seasons past, more has to be expected of him.  And I am not simply talking about producing more points.  When Joe Sakic retired, this became Stastny's team.  Adam Foote may be the captain, but it was going to be Stastny leading the new generation.  That's an incredible burden to bear for any player.  Add an expensive new contract and the expectations only increase.  I'm not expecting Stastny to be a rah-rah leader, but I am expecting him to show that he can elevate his game.  There are point producers and then there are players who can single-handedly take control of a game.  It's not how many goals you score but when you score them.  It's not how often you make the play but at what juncture in a tight contest you make it.  These are the players that make the elite level salaries and garner the accolades.  These are the players that represent their country at the Olympics.  This is what Stastny is supposed to be.  While we've grown used to the mercurial nature of the play of Wojtek Wolski or Marek Svatos, Stastny is not akin to that kind of play.  It's not that he needs to step up his point production (though I wouldn't mind).  He needs to step up and take control of the team and the games they play.  It's not rah-rah, but it's what Sakic did.  When the team was in need of a big play, he delivered.  Stastny is supposed to be this guy for the Avs.  He needs to deliver.  Folks, Olli Jokinen puts up about 30 goals and 70 points a year, but I would never confuse him with a player that consistently takes over a game when it's needed.  This is a crossroads for Stastny.  He can either aspire to have the impact of a Joe Sakic or settle on being another Jokinen.  We all feel that Matt Duchene can become this same type of game breaker.  If Stastny aspires to do so as well, the Avs will have that 1-2 punch at center that they used to have with Sakic and Forsberg, both game breakers.  Add O'Reilly to the mix and the depth of this team down the middle could be unmatched.

Which brings us to the predicament the Avs management is in.  It would be so easy to sacrifice a key piece of the future for a dynamic scorer or a threat on the point.  It may also help the team in the short term, both in the playoff push and the box office.  If I really thought that this team was just a piece or two from being a legitimate Stanley Cup threat (not playoff threat but Cup threat), I would be more understanding of such a move.  But the Avs are not akin to the 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins, who were basically a Bill Guerin away from the jackpot.

When you look at the Avs roster, the only significant playoff experience belongs to Adam Foote, Milan Hejduk, Darcy Tucker and Scott Hannan.  Yes, players like Stastny, Wolski and Svatos have been there, but not to the extent of the aforementioned foursome.  Foote and Hejduk have been all the way to raising the Cup and Tucker and Hannan have both been through long grinds.  Add to that a host of youngsters who haven't even come close and this is a team that does not have the playoff experience that a team like the 2009 Penguins did.  Remember, the Penguins made the playoffs in 2007 but were dispatched in the first round by Ottawa in five games.  They used that experience to get to the finals in 2008 but still couldn't overcome Detroit.  They used that experience to edge the Red Wings in 2009.  It was not overnight.  It won't be for the Avs and shouldn't be.

Greg Sherman needs to resist the temptation to sacrifice any significant pieces to the future.  That means not giving up the Shattenkirks, Cohens or Elliots.  Leave the O'Reillys, Galiardis and Yips alone.  If you can get a Ray Whitney type player for a middling prospect and/or middle round pick, fine.  In addition, if you can get anyone to take on the contract of John-Michael Liles or willing to rent impeding UFAs Clark, Salei, Svatos or Tucker for the remainder of the season, it will likely only add to the cupboard.  Otherwise, this should be the one contending season we Avs fans should not be hoping for a Lacroix special.  As much as it may worsen the attendance woes the team has faced this year, they (and we) need to grin and bear it.  If they make the playoffs (or even win the division) without any sacrificial moves, great.  If not, the rebuilding will continue.  It's clear that they are on the right track.  There was an infusion of exciting young forwards this year and next year there may be an infusion of exciting young defencemen.  I know, I know, the Phoenix Coyotes and Los Angeles Kings have been rebuilding for the better part of a decade now and still are just beginning to enjoy the fruits.  Those same Coyotes had a playoff spot in their grasp at this time a year ago and subsequently fell flat on their faces.  That probably increases the temptation to make a big trade even more.  But grin and bear it.

This team could very well be comparable to the 1995 Nordiques.  They had a great regular season and a burgeoning young core but fell out in the playoffs because of a lack of experience.  We all know what happened the next year.  This is not to say that the 2011 Avs will be drinking from the Cup, but staying the current course will get us there a lot faster.