Meet Your 2010-2011 Colorado Avalanche (Defensemen and Goalies)
Earlier, I looked at the Avalanche forwards and sorted everyone into a neat pile, separating everyone into a "returning next year" and "going elsewhere" pile. To recap, I figure 10 Avalanche forwards are, barring trades, expected to be on the roster next year: Stastny, Duchene, O'Reilly at center, Wolski, Galiard and McLeod on the left wing and Hejduk, Stewart, Yip and Jones on the right side. Those 10 guys would have an estimate cap hit of $25 million.
Now, a look at the rest of the team.
With some big contracts coming off the books, Avalanche GM Greg Sherman should have some cap relief on the blueline. The Avalanche have 5 defensemen under contract next year. We can ignore Tom Preissing and his cap number, as it is unlikely he will see much time in an Avalanche unipron. The remaining 4 have a cap hit of $10,130,000. Yes, I know you want to know about Liles; we'll get to him in a bit.
| 22 | Hannan, Scott | D | 30 | 4.500 | |
| 4 | Liles, John-Michael | D | 28 | 4.425 | |
| 20 | Preissing, Tom | D | 30 | 2.750 | |
| 10 | Cumiskey, Kyle | D | 22 | 0.675 | |
| 44 | Wilson, Ryan | D | 22 | 0.530 |
The Avalanche have 3 players who will be restricted free agents next summer, but the only one of any real consequence is Kyle Quincey.
| 2 | O'Neill, Wes | D | 23 | RFA | 0.656 |
| 27 | Quincey, Kyle | D | 23 | RFA | 0.578 |
| 6 | Peltier, Derek | D | 24 | RFA | 0.578 |
Quincey has had a good season in Denver, but I can't help but feel that his absolute best quality is his dirt-cheap salary. What would Quincey command? Matt Carle was given a 4-year deal at $3.4 million after his 11-goal, 42-point rookie season. I'd say that probably would be representative of the higher end of the salary scale for Quincey. Last summer, RFA James Wisniewski signed a 1-year, $2.75 million deal with the Ducks. He's put up similar numbers to Quincey in his career. Maybe there's a player who's a better barometer, but until I see otherwise, I'd peg Quincey as somewhere probably just shy of $3 million.
As for the UFAs, Ruslan Salei is as good as gone (I'll be really surprised if he isn't moved on Wednesday) and I have a suspicion that this is the final season for the venerable Adam Foote. With the play of Brett Clark this year (and the fact that he's sitting in front of Salei and Liles on the depth chart), it wouldn't shock me to see him back next year...but not at $3.5 million a year.
| 5 | Clark, Brett | D | 32 | UFA | |
| 24 | Salei, Ruslan | D | 34 | UFA | |
| 52 | Foote, Adam | D | 37 | UFA | |
| 57 | Fahey, Brian | D | 28 | UFA | |
| 3 | Skinner, Brett | D | 26 | UFA |
With Quincey, the Avalanche would appear to have about $13,000,000 tied up in six defensemen - a big improvement to the $20+ million they had committed to six defensemen going into this season. With those expiring contracts, the Avalanche don't have to move Liles' contract for cap relief. However, with Kevin Shattenkirk expecting to arrive next year and several other defensive prospects nearing NHL readiness, Liles may still fall victim to the numbers game - just roster numbers, not salary numbers. I know this statement is not any revelation to anyone familiar with the Avalanche this year, but Liles is certainly in play at the deadline, along with Salei and, possibly, Clark.
Goaltending is a little simpler. Craig Anderson is locked in for another year (stop by this time next year when we discuss Anderson's pending contract extension). Peter Budaj will hit the market this year, and I'm certain he'll test the waters. It's a tough market to be a goalie in, though, and it may be tough for Budaj to find an NHL gig (sadly). For the Avs, they can go with Tyler Weiman as a backup, or bring in someone new. Regardless, they probably won't spend much money for their #2. Anderson and his backup probably won't make more than $3 million combined.
| 41 | Anderson, Craig | G | 28 | 2.125 | |
| 30 | Weiman, Tyler | G | 25 | RFA | 0.550 |
| 31 | Budaj, Peter | G | 26 | UFA |
When you add everything up, between players under contract and restricted free agents expected to return, the Avalanche have potentially 18 guys under contract with a cap hit of about $41 million. Add in some minsal roster filler, and the Avs cap hit would be shaping up to be in the $43 million range - about $9 million less than they current expected cap hit. And that's with Liles still on the squad. More importantly, the Avalanche would be losing very little in terms of quality from their existing roster - Foote being the one guy that the Avalanche would have a difficult time replacing.
The bottom line is that the Avs' bottom line is looking pretty good right now. The Avalanche have a talented team and cap flexibility to bolster the roster either at the deadline or next summer (or both). While Greg Sherman is not expected to part with any young assets, the Avalanche shouldn't have the cap worries that other teams are running into. Even if the cap goes down next year, the Avs should be in good shape. In another year, the Avalanche will be looking at new contracts for Anderson, Galiardi, Jones, Cumiskey and Wilson and the year after that it will be Duchene and O'Reilly. Perhaps by then, the Avs will have some difficult cap decisions to deal with. For now, cap worries are thing of the future.
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Until the upcoming trade deadline and Avs’ training camp next fall I don’t think anyone can really say what the Avs will look like on defense for next season. With the cap space the Avs have it’s possible Preissing will be bought out. I would be surprised if any of the UFA D-men were re-signed. Continue the youth movement on defense next season just like we have with the forwards this season. For next year I would like to see this group of D-men for the Avs:
Hannan
Cumiskey
Quincey
Wilson
Shattenkirk
Gaunce
yeah, that’s definitely the area that’s most up in the air. not really sure what will happen. Does Foote come back for one more year? Will Liles still be around? Is anyone besides Shattenkirk ready to make the jump? Interesting stuff for sure, and tough to predict.
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by David Driscoll-Carignan on Feb 26, 2010 8:38 AM MST up reply actions
Thanks for giving me something to read during class.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Avs move a few D out and get a younger one back plus some prospects or picks.
Sandie
"That’s the way we’ll win championships"- The Baron
Someone on hf made an interesting point
Gaunce is in the last year of his rookie deal. That would make it a virtual certainty he plays for LE at least next year, and by virtue of that fact and his relatively large frame, you could make the argument he has a better shot to make the NHL squad than the other rookie contenders as well (Shattenkirk, Holos, etc).
I see it as a virtual certainty the Avs will move Liles. Like you say, it simply appears to be a numbers game, both cap and player.
You make a good case for Quincey’s cap number. If I was his agent, I’d point out that Quincey is already playing a greater ATOI then those examples do now, and far more than when they got those contracts. 3m is a good guess though.
I bet the Avs buy out Preissing this offseason. There’s no reason to keep him in the minors other than avoidance of his cap hit, and our cap situation is stellar. that’s a .91667m cap hit the next two years (and less money on the Avs internal budget sheets, more importantly).
If Foote returns, I think the team is in good shape for next year. If not, I think they need to go find a UFA defensive defenseman. Volchenkov is probably going to be ridiculously expensive, but I think Dan Hamhuis or Dan Girardi might be decent options. Another idea might be to trade Liles for someone. Mtl fans have suggested a swap of Hamrlik for Liles, and that seems like it might work well too.
I won’t be surprised to see Budaj back. He likes it here, and I doubt he finds anything but backup roles elsewhere, so why not stay? But then, he’d probably see more action elsewhere too, and the Avs really might want to go cheaper at that spot if Andy plays 70 games a year. So I guess I won’t be surprised to see Weiman either.
If they go for a trade, I would look for a mobile (unlike Hal Gill) defensive D-man with 1-2 years left on his contract. That would allow Sherman a couple more years to develop young D before being forced into a decision. With some luck we’ll see Gaunce or Shattenkirk develop into a complete player worthy of a generous second contract.
. . . . . What? Oh, sorry. I thought I was on a 2 hour tape delay.
by Busted Twigg on Feb 26, 2010 10:12 AM MST up reply actions
Gaunce is in the FIRST year of his ELC; not the last. (http://www.capgeek.com/charts.php?Team=12). He’ll also just be 20 years old and with 3 years of Canadian juniors experience under his belt. And at 6’1" 203lbs isn’t much bigger than Jonas Holos who is about 5’11" 198lbs. Holos will be 23 by the time next season starts and will have a couple of seasons of professional hockey in the Swedish Elite League (including a championship in his rookie season). He also logged significant minutes for Norway against the likes of Canada, Switzerland, and the USA in the Olympics.
Shattenkirk won’t make this team because of his size (although, he’s bigger than Liles and Cumiskey are). He will make it because of his potential to quarterback the power play. And it’ll be more likely that he makes the team if Liles is moved, as you think is likely. He will be 21 years old, have played 3 seasons at BU, won an NCAA championship and captained his team.
It’s easy to debate which league is the best developmental league for future NHL players and I don’t want to get into that. But, it’s also no secret that defensemen take longer to develop than do forwards. And Gaunce seems to have the least experience of the three. I don’t exactly think that he has the best shot to make next year’s team. But that’s what training camp and preseason are for.
(Of course, at this point, Gaunce is the only one of those three players with an NHL contract; As you said in another post, Holos wanted to fulfill his contract obligations with Farjestads this year. And Shattenkirk seems likely to be signed when his NCAA season is over)
by c0nquistad0rian on Feb 26, 2010 10:20 AM MST up reply actions
Oops, you’re right, he’ll be the in 2nd year of a 3 year deal. I could have sworn it was a 2 year deal, my bad. Well, so much for that. :) I betcha he’s with LE for sure then, which would make Shattenkirk and Holos the favorites…if we add a rookie out of camp.
Actually, Gaunce’s contract slides to 10-11, so it hasn’t kicked in yet since he didn’t play any games with the Avs this year.
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by Angélique C. Murray on Feb 26, 2010 11:28 AM MST up reply actions
I don’t know. I think that with the success that the team has had this year, Foote sticks around for one more (although, his salary this year is $3.25 million/$3 million cap hit not the $3.5 million listed above).
by c0nquistad0rian on Feb 26, 2010 10:00 AM MST reply actions
thanks for pointing this out. I actually messed that sentence up – it’s actually Clark I think may return.
Mile High Hockey: stupid jokes for the intellectual crowd
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Feb 26, 2010 10:46 AM MST up reply actions
im going to laugh so hard if this happens. I don’t think he’s a bad option, especially if we downgrade his pay, but the Avs blogosphere/boards will implode.
but the Avs blogosphere/boards will implode.
and my head would straight up asplode.
2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche - On the upside, there's only 21 more (regular season) games of Darcy Tucker left!

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by Americanario on Feb 26, 2010 8:07 PM MST up reply actions
Exactly!
2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche - On the upside, there's only 21 more (regular season) games of Darcy Tucker left!
If we downgrade his pay he’s fine, as long as we can all agree he’s a 5-6 defensiveman.
I thought his contract, along with other dumb ones, hurt us the last few years.
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by Jibblescribbits on Feb 26, 2010 12:32 PM MST up reply actions
Footer
Will be back for 1 more year. I don’t see him doing a 1 and done as the teams captain. Plus he has had a good year this year and is still a physical presence on the ice and has been helping develop Wilson into an, In the words of the MIZ, “AWESOME” hitting defenseman.
Just noticed on the SBNation panel on the right side of the page that Rene Borque just resigned with the fLames. I’m going to have to learn to hate that guy. He’s another Stewart.
. . . . . What? Oh, sorry. I thought I was on a 2 hour tape delay.
except that he’s already 28. He’s having a good year. And I would’ve signed him to a 2-4 year deal. But I doubt that he will be as productive as he has been as a 34 year old.
by c0nquistad0rian on Feb 26, 2010 11:44 AM MST up reply actions
The reason I mention it is that it sets a comparable for Stewart’s contract. Borque is averaging $3.3M over 6 years. He’s 28 and has been a bit fragile, so it’s a bit of a gamble for Calgary, but I love/hate watching him play. Lots of energy. TSN has him ranked #22 among wingers. Wolski is #25 and Stewart is #30. Given the age difference, both WW and Stewie have more upside potential. It also suggests that Wolski won’t get that much of a raise above his current $2.8M.
. . . . . What? Oh, sorry. I thought I was on a 2 hour tape delay.
by Busted Twigg on Feb 26, 2010 11:44 AM MST up reply actions
Wolski is actually making 3.1 this season, his cap hit is 2.8.
MHH: The Burgundy Army is on the March!
I'm The Canary - but I'm not cute nor cuddly, and I don't sing.
by Americanario on Feb 26, 2010 8:10 PM MST up reply actions
which means I got his QO wrong. not that that matters much
Mile High Hockey: stupid jokes for the intellectual crowd
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Feb 26, 2010 9:01 PM MST up reply actions

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