The Avs' Magic Numbers
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Mar 19, 2010 6:00 AM MDT
in NHL News
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Print*Warning: drowsiness-inducing numbers talk is about to take place*
In Thursday's preview, I talked about the Avalanche's magic number with Calgary as being 17; any combination of 17 points by the Avalanche or 17 available points missed by the Flames would guarantee that the Flames can't pass the Avs in the standings. It's calculated by taking the maximum number of points that the other team can attain this year and figuring how many points the Avalanche need to get to reach that level. Technically, 17 points just assures the Avs from tying the Flames, but I'm ignoring tiebreakers for now (since wins is the first one). If you want to be a stickler, add 1 to each number.
Today, I've calculated the magic number for all the teams. I'm including teams above the Avalanche in the standings, as they Avs can technically still catch each of them. And I'm including the Oilers because I know Derek Zona from Copper & Blue will be reading at some point today. But, really, this really just boils down to the Avs clinching a playoff spot. Once the magic number for 6 more teams drops to zero, the Avalanche are in (again, with the tiebreaker disclaimer above applying).
| Rank | Team | GP | W | L | OT | PTS | GR | MaxPts | Magic # |
| 1 | San Jose | 69 | 43 | 16 | 10 | 96 | 13 | 122 | 36 |
| 2 | Chicago | 69 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 94 | 13 | 120 | 34 |
| 3 | Vancouver | 70 | 43 | 24 | 3 | 89 | 12 | 113 | 27 |
| 4 | Phoenix | 70 | 43 | 22 | 5 | 91 | 12 | 115 | 29 |
| 5 | Colorado | 70 | 40 | 24 | 6 | 86 | 12 | ||
| 6 | Los Angeles | 68 | 40 | 23 | 5 | 85 | 14 | 113 | 27 |
| 7 | Nashville | 70 | 39 | 26 | 5 | 83 | 12 | 107 | 21 |
| 8 | Detroit | 69 | 34 | 23 | 12 | 80 | 13 | 106 | 20 |
| 9 | Calgary | 70 | 35 | 26 | 9 | 79 | 12 | 103 | 17 |
| 10 | Minnesota | 69 | 34 | 29 | 6 | 74 | 13 | 100 | 14 |
| 11 | St. Louis | 69 | 32 | 28 | 9 | 73 | 13 | 99 | 13 |
| 12 | Dallas | 69 | 30 | 26 | 13 | 73 | 13 | 99 | 13 |
| 13 | Anaheim | 69 | 32 | 29 | 8 | 72 | 13 | 98 | 12 |
| 14 | Columbus | 70 | 28 | 31 | 11 | 67 | 12 | 91 | 5 |
| 15 | Edmonton | 70 | 21 | 42 | 7 | 49 | 12 | 73 |
Standings were grabbed before the start of play last night. So, with the Wild's loss last night to Nashville, the Avs' magic number against Minnesota drops to 12.
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Minnesota lost. As did LA. Phoenix and Vancouver (don’t want to play them) won.
Avalanche 2009-2010: Ostensibly, the worst team in the league. Realistically, more points than the Flames and Wings. But hey, your Corsi number is better.
LA losing is probably the most important thing right now
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Mar 19, 2010 8:05 AM MDT up reply actions
They didn’t look good last night. Neither did we, but still. I would love a first round series against the Coyotes.
Avalanche 2009-2010: Ostensibly, the worst team in the league. Realistically, more points than the Flames and Wings. But hey, your Corsi number is better.
the lesser of 4 evils
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Mar 19, 2010 8:16 AM MDT up reply actions
Yeah LA played a tired and hurty Blackhawks team and really wet the bed. They looked awful
"Drugs are bad because if you do drugs you're a hippie and hippies suck." - Eric Cartman
Every team seems to look tired
I am on a vacation house where I get nhl network and i have been watching it all day. All these teams look sloppy and exhausted. Maybe the season is wearing on them finally.
Avalanche 2009-2010: Ostensibly, the worst team in the league. Realistically, more points than the Flames and Wings. But hey, your Corsi number is better.
or they aren’t rebounding well from the break?
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Mar 19, 2010 8:43 AM MDT up reply actions
Could be. I’d like to see teams that were on a roll before the break…how they have fared. Just looking at the schedule on my wall here
The Hawks went into the break winning 4 in a row…have been a .500 team since,
The Avs won 4 of 5 heading into the break, and have also been a .500 team since
Small sample size, but those two were right there for me
"Drugs are bad because if you do drugs you're a hippie and hippies suck." - Eric Cartman
am I the only one who thinks a series against the Coyotes is virtually guaranteed to end with Wolski scoring the series winner? I’m not entirely sure I want that.
by some white guy on Mar 19, 2010 8:43 AM MDT up reply actions
A series with Phoenix would be great. Neither team has a lot of playoff experience. With the addition of Yelle, we clearly have more, but both goalies have to prove something. I like our chances with our ability to rebound in games.
However, we have 12 points to go. Then I will postulate. I will say that getting that 5 seed may be as important as a playoff spot at this point.
Avalanche 2009-2010: Ostensibly, the worst team in the league. Realistically, more points than the Flames and Wings. But hey, your Corsi number is better.
I agree about the 5 seed, and it is absolutely within reach. I will reiterate what I’ve been saying: Quick is not going to play well down the stretch. He’s a young kid with a new baby. He’s not handling it well and will continue to have probs with it.
The 2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche: People can stop waiting for these kids to hit the wall. They won’t.
by NurseBeachie on Mar 19, 2010 8:52 AM MDT up reply actions
I have absolutely no doubt it would be a great series. But if/when Wolski scores the series winner, its going to leave a real bitter taste.
by some white guy on Mar 19, 2010 8:56 AM MDT up reply actions
then I guess Mueller will need to get a hat trick to wash that bad taste out of your mouth.
Colorado Avalanche: Aiming for Magic #31 - 31 points in 28 games. 18 points in 14 games; 13 points to go!
My name is Beachie
and I approve of this statement.
The 2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche: People can stop waiting for these kids to hit the wall. They won’t.
by NurseBeachie on Mar 19, 2010 9:07 AM MDT up reply actions
Welcome to first grade math.
In 3 weeks we begin to learn to count to 4.
by '96 Avs Bandwagon on Mar 19, 2010 10:28 AM MDT up reply actions
16!
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Mar 19, 2010 10:58 AM MDT up reply actions
Come on, DDC. There’s a learning curve!
First we make it to 4. Then try for 8, then 12, then 16. Can’t teach double digits on the first day :p
by '96 Avs Bandwagon on Mar 19, 2010 11:06 AM MDT up reply actions
The 2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche: People can stop waiting for these kids to hit the wall. They won’t.
by NurseBeachie on Mar 19, 2010 11:23 AM MDT up reply actions
uno, dos, tres, catorce.
Steve Moore’s last act as a hockey player was beating Matt Cooke’s ass, which makes him a great great person.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Mar 19, 2010 2:26 PM MDT up reply actions
Who even knows the definition of irony anyway?
The Avs have spent the season making a mockery of the view that advanced stats are effective at predicting the future.
by NurseBeachie on Mar 19, 2010 1:34 PM MDT up reply actions
ah, the ironing is delicious.
Steve Moore’s last act as a hockey player was beating Matt Cooke’s ass, which makes him a great great person.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Mar 19, 2010 2:26 PM MDT up reply actions
Phoenix is now within 3 points of San Jose. Who the fuck saw that coming? It is looking like 5th is about the best we can hope for now. And a first round series against Phoenix would be interesting to say the least. Remember, Dave Tippett is the only NHL coach to ever lose a playoff series to Tony Granato as a head coach. I’ve always thought Tippett was overrated … but the job he’s done in Phoenix has been amazing.
Jibbles is an older man so you can trust what he says.
by Bob in Boulder on Mar 19, 2010 10:30 AM MDT reply actions
i’m thinking that coach of the year award is pretty locked up at this point…
The 2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche: People can stop waiting for these kids to hit the wall. They won’t.
by NurseBeachie on Mar 19, 2010 10:34 AM MDT up reply actions
If you look back to TIppet’s record, he is really good in his first year. And the years that follows, as long as he has veteran players, he is fine. He is not good with rookies, youngsters who undoubtly need more instructions and patience.
With Phoenix getting younger in a season or two ( they have to play their top picks, right?) I could see Tippet pull a Hitch in the future.
He is not good with rookies, youngsters who undoubtly need more instructions and patience.
See Meuller, Peter. aka, Ferris.
Which is why I think he’ll do better with the Avs and won’t drop into the sulk mode Phx fans say he will. Sacco is a player’s coach, esp with the young guns.
The 2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche: People can stop waiting for these kids to hit the wall. They won’t.
by NurseBeachie on Mar 19, 2010 11:22 AM MDT up reply actions
So far San Jose is crapping the bed tonight against Calgary, if they don’t get their act together Chicago is going to win the West and Phoenix is going to be #2.
MHH: The Burgundy Army is on the March!
I'm The Canary - but I'm not cute nor cuddly, and I don't sing.
by Americanario on Mar 19, 2010 7:55 PM MDT up reply actions
or #4
Steve Moore’s last act as a hockey player was beating Matt Cooke’s ass, which makes him a great great person.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Mar 19, 2010 11:39 PM MDT up reply actions
Numbers! :[
Hey this is OT but I’m pretty sure that since Wolski got traded Phoneix has had three shoot outs and he’s gotten saved in every one.
again
AKA Stastnystooth on twitter... Yeah that's me, his tooth.
by Ben from Portland on Mar 19, 2010 12:24 PM MDT up reply actions
what does that mean?
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Mar 19, 2010 1:13 PM MDT up reply actions
It’s a shirt from a bar in Wisconsin… It always reminds me of Wolski’n around the zone and loosing the puck
AKA Stastnystooth on twitter... Yeah that's me, his tooth.
by Ben from Portland on Mar 19, 2010 1:23 PM MDT up reply actions
Vancouver
When Raycroft starts, the magic number jumps to 420
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Mar 19, 2010 12:46 PM MDT reply actions 1 recs
Off Topic
Has Jones ever had a hat trick?
The Avs have spent the season making a mockery of the view that advanced stats are effective at predicting the future.
nope. 2 2-goal games
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Mar 19, 2010 1:24 PM MDT up reply actions
gotcha...
thx….so again off topic…this is what I’m thinking about bringing to the games this weekend since Mack Truck will most likely not be playing and that plan is out the window…
Thoughts? Additions? Changes? I was going to put the guys’ #s on the blank side but it was getting too busy.
The Avs have spent the season making a mockery of the view that advanced stats are effective at predicting the future.
by NurseBeachie on Mar 19, 2010 1:30 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
its awesome
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Mar 19, 2010 2:02 PM MDT up reply actions
I've got some numbers for you right here: 2.
as in the number of middle fingers I’ll be flipping to all of the people who called the avs a fluke, yet they some how made the playoffs on April 11. I may flip off some kings players, but I don’t really have any hatred for any of them, so probably not.
Steve Moore’s last act as a hockey player was beating Matt Cooke’s ass, which makes him a great great person.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Mar 19, 2010 2:30 PM MDT reply actions
Apparently
she got banned for a throttle violation, which deleted all of her posts and has turned all of her comments into these bizarre gray boxes.
A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day.
by A.J. Haefele on Mar 19, 2010 3:22 PM MDT up reply actions
:(
Sandie
"We called him Clark Kent because away from the rink, he was just a nerd. Then he'd go into the Colorado dressing room and put on his Avs jersey, and all of a sudden he was Super Joe"- Theo Fleury
by Sandie Gauthier on Mar 19, 2010 3:39 PM MDT up reply actions
What’s a throttle violation, and how scared is JM-Liles right now?
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Mar 19, 2010 5:16 PM MDT up reply actions
PREACH
A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day.
by A.J. Haefele on Mar 19, 2010 4:17 PM MDT up reply actions
So did my poster for the Kings and Ducks game get deleted? I can’t see any of my posts, but the Mrs says they’re greyed out….
2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche: More than just luck
I can’t see any either
Sandie
"We called him Clark Kent because away from the rink, he was just a nerd. Then he'd go into the Colorado dressing room and put on his Avs jersey, and all of a sudden he was Super Joe"- Theo Fleury
by Sandie Gauthier on Mar 19, 2010 5:01 PM MDT up reply actions
prob when you refresh the page everything goes kaput. lame lame lame. anyway, here’s my poster for the game:
2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche: More than just luck
by Cheryl Bradley on Mar 19, 2010 5:06 PM MDT up reply actions
gameS
gonna bring it to both…unless someone gets a hattie at the Ducks, then I will alter it and put the guy’s face on it for the Kings game!
2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche: More than just luck
by Cheryl Bradley on Mar 19, 2010 5:07 PM MDT up reply actions
Awesome
Sandie
"We called him Clark Kent because away from the rink, he was just a nerd. Then he'd go into the Colorado dressing room and put on his Avs jersey, and all of a sudden he was Super Joe"- Theo Fleury
by Sandie Gauthier on Mar 19, 2010 5:13 PM MDT up reply actions
and I’m gonna wear a cowboy hat to throw on the ice if someone gets one!
2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche: More than just luck
by Cheryl Bradley on Mar 19, 2010 6:46 PM MDT up reply actions
Please do this.
A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day.
by A.J. Haefele on Mar 19, 2010 8:03 PM MDT up reply actions
you have to help me find a hat on sunday!!
2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche: More than just luck
by Cheryl Bradley on Mar 19, 2010 8:27 PM MDT up reply actions
Deal!
A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day.
by A.J. Haefele on Mar 19, 2010 8:53 PM MDT up reply actions
That looks awesome! You should blow it up poster sized!
by xskatebakerrx on Mar 19, 2010 10:23 PM MDT up reply actions
I’m going to! About the same size as the one you did in fact
2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche: More than just luck
by Cheryl Bradley on Mar 20, 2010 10:24 AM MDT up reply actions
Around the NHL
Tonight the BJ’s (14th) slowed the Wild’s (11th) climb into the playoff race beating them 4-2.
The fLames (9th) beat the slumping Sharks (2nd) 4-3 and move ahead of the RedWings at least for a few hours.
Detroit (8th) scores with less then a second left to take the Oilers (15th) to OT, who else but Rafalski. The Oilers take the game in the SO but the damage is done as the Wings receive a point they didn’t deserve and are tied with the fLames. Detroit still has a game in hand, so they remain in the 8th spot.
Tavares has a goal and an assist as the Isles lead the Ducks (13th) 4-3 in the 3rd.
MHH: The Burgundy Army is on the March!
I'm The Canary - but I'm not cute nor cuddly, and I don't sing.
I wonder if the Sharks already think it’s playoff time hence the slump? Nothing against the team but I’d love them to start the annual choke early so we have a chance against them in our upcoming games! (I’ve got tickets to one and if I end up 1 for 7 this season I’m going to be so bummed out!!!)
by xskatebakerrx on Mar 19, 2010 10:23 PM MDT up reply actions
’BJ’s’ hee hee.
Steve Moore’s last act as a hockey player was beating Matt Cooke’s ass, which makes him a great great person.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Mar 19, 2010 11:40 PM MDT up reply actions
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