Backstrom Signs for Stastny Money
by Mike @ MHH on May 17, 2010 12:43 PM MDT
in NHL News
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Everybody knows one of my pet peeves is when people look at Paul Stastny's salary and decry him as overpaid. While that is true in the general sense (that is to say that the general consensus feels that all professional athletes are overpaid) it is not true in the specific, relative sense. Before he signed his current contract that took effect before this season, his numbers were comparable to several payers, the most likely being Anze Kopitar of the LA Kings who signed a 7-year deal with a $6.8 million per year hit. That deal grows to $7.7 million in salary by 2016. Stastny signed to a 5-year deal with a $6.6 million per year cap hit that reflects the salary each season (i.e. not bump toward the end of the contract's term). Now we've heard that Nicklas Backstrom of the Washington Capitals has signed to a 10-year deal at $6.7 million per year. Aside from the fact that the CBC apparently can't tell the difference between Peter and Paul, there's very little details about the new Backstrom offer. It does appear to grow from a salary-per-year perspective to as much as $8 million per season if Capgeek.com is to be believed.
Now, let's look at the other important numbers for these three players.
Stastny (through first three seasons): 163 GP 63 G 122 A = 0.96 Points Per Game
Kopitar (through first three seasons: 236 GP 79 G 125 A = 0.86 Points Per Game
Backstrom (through first three seasons): 246 GP 69 G 189 A = 1.05 Points Per Game
Pretty comparable. If anything, Washington may have underpaid given Backstrom hasn't missed any games so far in his career. That 10 year term may be risky as he'd be 32-ish when it's over, but then again you could use the DiPietro logic and assume that he'll be a possible HoFer and still be a bargain at the end of the contract so you never know.
One other thing to consider is the post-season performance of each player. Before he signed his current contract Kopitar hadn't sniffed the playoffs while Stastny had 3 points in 9 games back in 2008. Backstrom has seen plenty of playoff action pre-deal (21 points in 21 games), so we'll have to give the edge to the Swede on that one. He (Backstrom) also hasn't played with any supposed "weight of a big contract" to date, while Statsny and Kopitar have a season under their new deals. This season Kopitar wracked up 34 goals and 47 assists in 82 games (0.96 points per game) and 5 points in 6 playoff games. Similarly, Stastny managed 20 goals and 59 assists in 81 games (0.98 points per game) with 5 points in 6 playoff games. There isn't an appreciable drop in Stastny's or Kopitar's numbers. There weren't any appreciable gains either and they are both arguably on better teams than some of the dogs they played on in the early years of their careers. Neither is exactly playing with the all world talent on their wings like Backstrom though.
But I guess my question at the end of this rambling schpeel is this:
How is Stastny overpaid when compared to his comparables? If Backstrom is your comparison, how do you remove the Ovechkin bump from his numbers? Does his additional 0.09 points-per-game necessitate a contract that runs into 2020? Would you prefer to have Stastny on the books for a longer term at a lower price? Is there anybody else his age with his experience that is making less and producing more?
UPDATE: From the Rink has some more thoughts on the Backstrom signing.
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The only real way to compare Backstrom to Stastny
Is to sign Kovie and play him with Stats for a few years to, you know, see what happens. Let’s face it, Stastny has never centered Ovechkin.
Quitter's People United Member #33
"I am a business major in college after all." - One MHR commenter's rationale for knowing more about the Denver Broncos than I do. LOL.
I agree. This year, SoS had to be “THE” man…that’s a lot of pressure when “THE” man was Joe Sakic the previous 14 years. Last season…well, no need to say anything more. Before that? Rookie year. Next season, let’s give Stastny a serious goal scorer on his wing (no offense to Gali, but he’s not a #1 winger) and then bitch about his salary. I still don’t see the issue, really. I mean the guy is nearly a point-per-game player as it is. But give him a Kovi level guy to center and I am betting that number jumps way up.
This is our team: underrated, filled with amazingly talented kids and veteran leaders, both young and old, who are buying into the vision of a hard working, fast moving, never-say-die game. They are the 2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche.
by Cheryl Bradley on May 17, 2010 2:08 PM MDT up reply actions
Agree. That top line scorer is looking more and more crucial. Follow that line up with Dutchie flanked by some combo of Duke/Jones/Mueller, a shut down third, and a grinder fourth… my god.
Stats, already worth his money, will look like a deal with that behind him.
Thanks Joe...
While doing that Dixomoatic vid, I watched some vid of the Blood Feud hay-day and it reminded me of the powerhouse the Avs were…and made me realize the current team has some glaring weaknesses. That constant offensive zone control and scoring threat is missing. Yes, we have some of the pieces for a strong future, but the team as it is right now will not get us to the Cup. Face it, folks, we’re developing some players for key trades.
This is our team: underrated, filled with amazingly talented kids and veteran leaders, both young and old, who are buying into the vision of a hard working, fast moving, never-say-die game. They are the 2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche.
by Cheryl Bradley on May 17, 2010 4:13 PM MDT up reply actions
me too, and man they were good. being 8 years old when the team moved to colorado, i didn’t realize how spoiled i was! man i miss the siren goal horn though…. that was legit.
Sports don't build character, they reveal it
oh the siren…
This is our team: underrated, filled with amazingly talented kids and veteran leaders, both young and old, who are buying into the vision of a hard working, fast moving, never-say-die game. They are the 2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche.
by Cheryl Bradley on May 17, 2010 7:18 PM MDT up reply actions
Wait,
I thought that you were the siren?!?
2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche - Much more gooderer than last year!
awwww
aren’t you sweet!
This is our team: underrated, filled with amazingly talented kids and veteran leaders, both young and old, who are buying into the vision of a hard working, fast moving, never-say-die game. They are the 2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche.
by Cheryl Bradley on May 17, 2010 9:07 PM MDT up reply actions
There is a lot of talk on Japer’s Rink about how, without Backstrom, Ovie might not have the goals he has. They are just the perfect couple I guess. I think Backstrom is worth every penny they will be paying him. He is an amazing player, and like Statsny, very quiet and humble.
But I agree, I would like to see Statsny have a bona fide, goal scoring #1 winger to play with.
2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche: Now with Playoff Goodness!
The best way to get around the argument of “who makes who” is to sign them both long-term like the Caps have done. Very good move on their part.
"By the age of 18, the average American has witnessed 200,000 acts of violence on television, most of them occurring during Game 1 of the NHL playoff series." ~Steve Rushin
I think people, me personally, look to Stastny to get that oh-so-important goal when the team really needs one. But Stastny isn’t really that type of player, he’s a play maker. That’s why I want to get a bonafide scorer to take some of the pressure off Stazzer. Having Duke for an entire season would help as well.
Backstom?
Sorry, grammar/spelling nazi. Great post though!
Wait, they play hockey in Idaho?
by Spudnic on May 17, 2010 2:54 PM MDT via mobile reply actions
For $67M
I’d probably agree to delete a letter from my surname too.
2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche - Much more gooderer than last year!
I think the term of the contract makes a massive difference when comparing the players – Stastny’s is the shortest of them – which means if you doubled the length then you would lose potentially 0.5 million to 1 million off the per-year cap hit. This makes him even better value and less of a risk compared to the others.
I think the Avs putting themselves in a situation where even if Stastny gets injured or declines in performance they have a quick out is great, even if that does cost a little more.
This, in conjunction with locking up Ovie for a long time, is sheer brilliance.
Barring injury, in which case, they’re hosed.
2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche - Much more gooderer than last year!
Speaking of that,
How’s ol’ Ricky DiPietro lookin’? Money well spent?
Poor Islanders. They are so screwed with that contract. It’s like Yashin, all over again. Except this time it will be from injury, not from being a douche.
I know my name is spelled "Luxury Yacht" but it's actually pronounced Throatwarbler Mangrove.
As a member in good standing with the PFJ I truly hate only two things:
The JPF and the Detroit Red Wings! And Red Wing fans. Ok, I truly hate three things...
by Luxury Yacht on May 17, 2010 8:50 PM MDT up reply actions
Personally
I think there are two stats bumps in addition to the Ovechkin bump: one, playing in the Eastern Conference, which is weaker both defensively and overall when compared to the West; and two, playing on a run and gun team that has no defensive system and essentially plays to put the puck in the net and do nothing else.
Neither of those things are true for both Stastny and Kopitar, which is why I think they’re better players than Backstrom.
by ExiledAmongYou on May 17, 2010 10:11 PM MDT reply actions
Kovy-Stats-Stewart
Mueller-Dutchie-Hejduk
Gali-O’Reilly-Jones
McLeod-Hendricks-Yip
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on May 18, 2010 8:46 AM MDT up reply actions
Sharp/Parise – Stastny – Stewart
Mueller – Duchene – Hejduk
Galiardi – O’Reilly – Jones
McLeod – Hendricks – Yip
Porter
Stoa
2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche - Much more gooderer than last year!
yip
how did i forget yip? jeez…umm yea i like your thoughts of the 3rd line of gali-o’reilly-jones
then mcleod-hendricks-yip
what is parise’s contract status? is that a dream or reality? i know the kovy has a chance
Parise is under contract for 2010-11 for +/-$3.6M, becoming RFA in 2011-12. The source of my idle speculation about him is that there are rumours / theories being advanced that NJD may seek to re-sign Kovy and perhaps Martin and seek to move Parise in order to do so. I wouldn’t give this a very high percentage chance, but after having seen the chemistry that Parise has with SoS in the Olympics, well, a guy can dream, right?
I do think that there is room for a move by Jones next year which might allow something like this:
Dr. Jones – SoS – Stewie/Duke
Ferris – Dutchy – Stewie/Duke
Galiaridicus – Radar – Yip
Highlander – Hendrix – Porter/Stoa
Porter/Stoa
I could dig that lineup. A lot.
2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche - Much more gooderer than last year!
How did you forget Jones?
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on May 18, 2010 11:12 AM MDT up reply actions
parise
i would love to get parise—him with stastny and stewart? wow?!!
i however disagree with the 2nd line i’d like to see dutchy/ferris/duke all year long
and assumign we don’t acquire a big name LW put jones on that top line. don’t mess with that 2nd line
perhaps tinker with the 3rd’s combos, but not the 2nd
I really want Parise. I thought that as soon as I saw him and SoS together in the Olys. I know it’s a pipe dream, but I still want him. I love these lines, Hops, btw.
This is our team: underrated, filled with amazingly talented kids and veteran leaders, both young and old, who are buying into the vision of a hard working, fast moving, never-say-die game. They are the 2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche.
by Cheryl Bradley on May 18, 2010 3:17 PM MDT up reply actions
young guns
in order to acquire a top notch dman would any of you be willing to part ways with one/some of our young guns not named duchene or o’reilly?
not so sure if this is even realistic but is there any chance of getting doughty out of LA since he is on the last year of his rookie deal?
in order to acquire a top notch dman would any of you be willing to part ways with one/some of our young guns not named duchene or o’reilly
Yes, if necessary, however there’s quite a few top notch Dmen on the market this summer.
I think packaging one of these guys for a top LWer, like Sharp or Booth, and use the money on a guy like Martin or Volchenkov would be a better use of trade resources
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on May 18, 2010 12:20 PM MDT up reply actions
I know Booth is going to be shopped heavily,
but do you have him in the same breath as Sharp?
They both score at about the same clip (0.58PPG Sharp vs. 0.57PPG Booth) and Booth is 3 years younger, but Sharp has shown his stuff in the playoffs (not that Booth has had the chance, in fairness) and Sharp’s a right shot, which I like on the LW a lot more. Sharp also hasn’t had the injury issues that Booth has and comes with a shorter, smaller cap hit (1yr/$3.9M vs. 5yrs/$4.25M). I lean heavily to Sharp and think that the Avs have better leverage with CHI than with FLA given the teams’ relative cap situations. Booth and his health scare me. A lot.
2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche - Much more gooderer than last year!
No way Doughty is leaving. He’s the new face of their franchise.
This is our team: underrated, filled with amazingly talented kids and veteran leaders, both young and old, who are buying into the vision of a hard working, fast moving, never-say-die game. They are the 2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche.
by Cheryl Bradley on May 18, 2010 3:17 PM MDT up reply actions
Doughty might be the most untouchable player in the league right now via trade. I won’t say never, but I don’t think LA would trade Doughty for any player straight up. Even Crosby or Ovechkin.
I think the asking price for Doughty is so high that it starts at 4 1st round picks plus prospects. He’s that good, that young.
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on May 18, 2010 3:31 PM MDT up reply actions
My name is Beachie, and I approve of this statement.
This is our team: underrated, filled with amazingly talented kids and veteran leaders, both young and old, who are buying into the vision of a hard working, fast moving, never-say-die game. They are the 2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche.
by Cheryl Bradley on May 18, 2010 4:10 PM MDT up reply actions
Stastny is overpaid.
But given the choice between $6.7M in extra cap space or having Stastny on the Avs, I’ll take Stastny.
When will the hurting stop?
I just don't understand this sentiment
First, he’s nearly a PPG player. Yeah, he’s more of an assist guy than a goal guy (right now), but is there anything wrong with being the playmaker? A goal is a goal. People complained that he wasn’t getting those clutch goals. There is something to that but people also forget the top lines, both D and forward, of the opposition were always on him especially during those clutch moments because he was, in fact, the main goal scorer of the team save Hejduk as far as they were concerned. Yeah, things changed as the season went on, but I firmly believe Stewart was as good as he was because of SoS. Stewie doesn’t get those goals without him. That said, give Stastny (1) a true #1 line to play with to open up the ice and (2) a bigger threat on the second line (which will come next year now that Duchene has a year’s experience under his belt and Mueller to balance the other wing) and I think he will be the clutch player. Don’t forget that 08-09, he spent most of the year on the IR. Last year, he was expected to take over for Sakic and at 24 lead a rookie team in scoring. That’s a lot of pressure…which I think he handled quite well FWIW. Regardless, I’ve no doubt next year will be different. With a stronger team around him, he will score more goals while staying the playmaker he’s been.
Long response short, I don’t think he’s overpaid.
This is our team: underrated, filled with amazingly talented kids and veteran leaders, both young and old, who are buying into the vision of a hard working, fast moving, never-say-die game. They are the 2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche.
by Cheryl Bradley on May 18, 2010 8:33 PM MDT up reply actions
If you’d rather have Stastny than the $6.7M… he’s not overpaid.
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on May 18, 2010 8:41 PM MDT up reply actions
Ummm…that’s exactly what I said. I’d rather have Stastny than the $6.7M. But I’d rather have Stastny at $5.5M, which is what I think he should have been signed for.
When will the hurting stop?
To sum up, someone can still be overpaid, even if I’d rather have them than the cap space. To perfectly frank, I think every pro athlete in North America is overpaid.
When will the hurting stop?
That’s an entirely different argument, and one that really isn’t worth arguing. Yes, pro athletes get paid a crap ton of money, but we’re talking about Stastny’s contract IN RELATION TO SIMILAR PLAYERS.
Forever grateful that Joe Sakic isn't a douche bag like Brett Favre.
by Rather Dashing on May 19, 2010 3:19 PM MDT up reply actions
Umm
in an “All athletes are overpaid” kind of way, or do you mean relative to other hockey players?
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on May 19, 2010 9:17 PM MDT up reply actions
No, I mean all athletes are overpaid. That’s a fact.
But in terms of hockey, I just thing Stastny should be at about 5.5. It’s not a gross overpayment…it’s just my opinion. And on a slightly obscure note, I think having that much salary puts more pressure on him. I’d like him to feel more “comfortable” at 5.5. Look at Drury—ever since signing his big contract, he’s been mediocre AT BEST.
When will the hurting stop?
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