A Look At the Avs RFAs
I was called away on pleasure this weekend, so my big primer on the RFA rules will be slightly smaller and likely more error-filled than planned. Just the way everyone likes it.
According to the current NHL CBA, a player become eligible for unrestricted free agency when they hit the age of 27 (on June 30th) or accrue 7 season in the NHL. While there are some exceptions, like Group VI free agency, most of the players whose entry-level deal has expired and have not reached that milestone fall into the group II category - Restricted Free Agents (RFAs).
Teams have until 5pm on the first Monday after the NHL draft (this year, we're talking June 28th) to submit a qualifying offer (QO) to a RFA with an expired contract. Any RFA that is not tendered a QO becomes an unrestricted free agent, free to sign with anyone after July 1st (they may still end up with their old club, as Tyler Weiman did last season). Player who receive a QO have a couple of options: sign it, go to arbitration (if they are eligible to do so), find another league to play in, hold out for a better deal, or hope another team signs them to an offer sheet. Generally, the first two or three are what happens in the majority of cases. Players have little leverage to make a hold out work and teams who sign restricted free agents to an offer sheet have to compensate the other team with a bevy of draft picks (the original team may also choose to match the offer and retain the player).
There's your two paragraph primer. There will be no test. Instead, let's dive into the Avs' RFA situation this offseason. I used NHLNumbers, CapGeek and AvalancheDB to come up with these numbers. Any mistakes, blame them.
By my count, the Avalanche have 11 players, and I'll go through each one. The Avalanche currently have just $28 million committed to payroll next season - only one team (the Blues) is lower. Money isn't a huge consideration right now, but that doesn't mean the Avalanche will qualify each of these players.
F Chris Stewart. QO required: $892,500. Stewart is 2 years away from arbitration and 5 years away from unrestricted free agency. However, with 28 goals scored last year, he's going to attract some attention if he is available on the RFA market this summer. The last thing the Avalanche want is to have to match a glitzy offer sheet for Stewart. I suspect the Avs and Stewart will come to terms on a deal before the June 28th deadline. How much? In 2005, the Kings signed 23-year old former 1st-round pick Alexander Frolov to a 5-year deal at $2.9 million per season that locked him up through his first year of UFA eligibility. Frolov had 2 seasons under his belt and was coming of a 24-goal season. In 2007, the Devils 23-year old Zack Parise to a 4-year deal at $3.125 million - a deal that ends 1 year before he becomes an unrestricted free agent. Parise was coming off his 2nd season in New Jersey - a season when he scored 31 goals and 61 points. I think Stewart will be in that ballpark - either a 4 or 5 year deal paying him between $3 and $3.5 million per year.
D Kyle Quincey. QO $605,000. Here's where I get confused. I thought I'd read somewhere that Quincey is arbitration eligible this year, but I'm not sure why that would be. Quincey signed his first NHL contract in July of 2005. He was 19 at the time, but for arbitration purposes he was 20 (he turned 20 by September 15th of that year). Players signing their first contract at age 20 become arbitration eligible after 4 NHL seasons of 10 games or more. Quincey just finished his second. By my math, he won't be arbitration for 2 more years (when he'll be 1 year away from UFA status). If I'm missing something and he is eligible, I don't think he'd have much trouble convincing an arbitrator that he's worth at least James Wisniewski money ($2.75 million). Without arbitration, his contract value is a bit more difficult to determine. While it's true that Quincey is a good young defenseman, I've stated here before that his most valuable asset is his tiny contract. A team signing Quincey to a $2 million offer sheet would be subject to handing the Avs a 1st and 3rd round pick - a deal Avalanche GM Greg Sherman would agree to in a heartbeat. With all the young defensemen on the horizon, what do the Avalanche do with Quincey? Frankly, I don't have a clue. I could see them trading him this summer while his value is still high (I hear he could net Ryan Smyth in a trade).
F Brandon Yip. QO $632,500. With only 32 NHL games to date, Yip is a tough case to evaluate. Since he was 24 when he signed his first NHL contract, he's eligible for arbitration this year, but he doesn't have enough on his resume to convince an arbitrator he is worth much more than what he'll be offered. Yip has 2 more years before becoming eligible for UFA. You may see the Avs sign him to a 2-year deal that pays him something in the $1 to $1.5 million range per year, but I think it's just as likely that they will tender him for the minimum and then work on an extension next summer if he continues to develop.
F Peter Mueller, QO $892,500. Along with Quincey, Mueller is one of the most interesting cases this summer. At 22, he's a year away from arbitration and 4 years away from UFA. For this year, how do you figure his value? As an unhappy 4th liner in Phoenix with 17 points in 54 games? Or the guy who scored 20 points in 15 games with the Avalanche? The Avalanche clearly have confidence in Mueller, as they traded away Wojtek Wolski to get him. But how much will he garner? Last summer, the Rangers signed 24-year old RFA Ryan Callahan to a 2-year deal paying $2.3 million. Callahan had average .4 points per game in his career to that point. Mueller is at .57. Two summers ago, the Sharks signed 24-year old Milan Michalek to a 6 year, $4.33 million deal. Michalek's PPG was .65 at the time. I think I like Callahan better as a barometer. Let's say 3 years at $2.75 million per season. Honestly, I thought I'd find his value to be lower, but I guess he could use that cash for the new kidney.
F Kevin Porter, QO $892,500. We're only 4 players in, and we've already reached the point where it's basically either offer the minimum QO or let the player hit the UFA market. Everyone from here on down would be getting a 2-way qualifying offer (meaning they would make considerably less than their QO amounts in the minors). Porter is probably someone the Avalanche would keep, considering that the Avalanche just traded for him and he played pretty well for them. But that's a hefty cap number for a guy with 13 points in 54 NHL games and who figures to be a 4th liner for the Avalanche. I think it's possible the Avalanche will not tender Porter, but will still try to sign him this summer to a more cap-friendly deal.
F T.J. Hensick, QO $892,500. Hensick had 70 points with the Monsters last year (15th in the league) and he's still just 24 years old. He could turn it around and end up with a job in the NHL. I think he's done with the Avalanche though. I think there's almost no chance the Avalanche will tender him and there's no way Hensick re-signs with the club as a UFA.
F Codey Burki, QO $666,750. Burki was one of the picks acquired for Alex Tanguay back in 2006, but hasn't panned out. At all. Last year, he started with Lake Erie before being reassigned to the Charlotte Checkers of the ECHL. Like Hensick, he'll be looking for a fresh start with another organization next year.
D Derek Peltier, QO $577,500 Peltier will probably be a victim of the numbers game, much like Michael Vernace last year. The Avalanche have signed defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk, Colby Cohen, Joel Chouinard and Jonas Holøs this summer and the Avs already have Cameron Gaunce, Kevin Montgomery and Tom Preissing under contract next year, all of whom figure to be on the Lake Erie roster in the fall. There just isn't room for Peltier or for...
D Ray Macias, QO $577,500 or even...
D Wes O'Neill, QO $656, 250.
G Tyler Weiman, QO $550,000. The Avalanche did not tender Weiman last year, but still ended up signing him to maintain stability between the pipes in Cleveland. While it's clear Weiman doesn't figure into the franchise's long-term plans, he still put up better numbers than Billy Saur and Trevor Cann did with the Monsters last year. Even if Peter Delmas gets added to the mix, the 26-year old Weiman may be the best bet for a Monsters team that has a) lots of young defensemen and b) is still looking for its first postseason berth.
In the end, there's a lot of names on the upcoming RFA list, but I feel that the majority of them won't be tendered by the Avalanche. We won't know for sure until June 28th, the deadline for teams to tender qualifying offers. The Avalanche won't be formally announcing who they've tendered, but hopefully we'll be able to find out relatively soon after who has and hasn't received an offer. Surprises or not, that deadline is when the free agency season really starts. The unrestricted free agency period starts just 4 days later.
Next week, I'll look at the Avs upcoming UFAs. After that, I'll take a look at who the Avalanche could be targeting on the free agent market this summer.
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47 comments
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Comments
No ninjas or explosions? God I’m disappointed.
The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, "I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it."
Avs fan in Sharks country.
Jimmy Howard is the new bacon. He makes everything better.
Table?
Hey DD,
It’d be nice if you’d make a little table stating how much you think their cap hit is going to be in column 1.
Stating for how much they signed in column 2.
And at the bottom your total expected cap hit in total (and for how many players) and next to that the current cap hit (and for how many players). Maybe even make a third line stating the Cap sealing.
If you’d put that on the front page and update it as contracts are signed, it’d be a very helpful piece of trivia for all us fans trying to figure it all out.
Could you please do so?
I do plan to do this. haven’t had a chance to make a cartoony button for it yet!
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on May 24, 2010 8:10 AM MDT up reply actions
Too early for deep thinking, so
Am I the only one that thinks LOTR whenever I see Frolov’s name? Thought so.
Or Wee-Man from Jackass…
The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, "I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it."
Avs fan in Sharks country.
Jimmy Howard is the new bacon. He makes everything better.
by i2strange97 on May 24, 2010 8:33 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think it is
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on May 24, 2010 8:35 AM MDT up reply actions
Pro-nun-see-a-tion police! Hands up!
The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, "I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it."
Avs fan in Sharks country.
Jimmy Howard is the new bacon. He makes everything better.
Sorry. Still a Wei-bit tired.
The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, "I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it."
Avs fan in Sharks country.
Jimmy Howard is the new bacon. He makes everything better.
May I ask
Why man?
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on May 24, 2010 9:01 AM MDT up reply actions
The good news is, there’s no brain ache in dealing with a new deal for Wolski. That would have been some serious teeth gnashing.
that would have been a really interesting scenario to draw up and watch. much more so than Mueller and Quincey
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on May 24, 2010 8:51 AM MDT up reply actions
How so? Did Phoenix hire Kevin Lowe? Giving WoWo Stastny money would be insane. Just insane.
Quitter's People United Member #33
"I am a business major in college after all." - One MHR commenter's rationale for knowing more about the Denver Broncos than I do. LOL.
by Bob in Boulder on May 24, 2010 10:46 AM MDT up reply actions
Which is exactly why it will happen. I was making a joke originally, but your comment made me realize it’s more likely to happen than not.
If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!
Unless NHL gets rid of Maloney, I don’t see them getting stupid with the Baron. Maloney is actually subject to arrest warrants in several states & provinces for his larcenous conduct at the trade deadline this year.
Him’s durned smart!
2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche - Much more gooderer than last year!
I was making a joke originally
I thought you were just sandwich punching insane.
Quitter's People United Member #33
"I am a business major in college after all." - One MHR commenter's rationale for knowing more about the Denver Broncos than I do. LOL.
by Bob in Boulder on May 24, 2010 1:01 PM MDT up reply actions
After that, I’ll take a look at who the Avalanche could be targeting on the free agent market this summer.
We must wait for the summer of Kovie.
Quitter's People United Member #33
"I am a business major in college after all." - One MHR commenter's rationale for knowing more about the Denver Broncos than I do. LOL.
by Bob in Boulder on May 24, 2010 10:46 AM MDT reply actions
There are already rumors of the KHL making big offers for Kovi and Frolov. If that’s the case, we’ll have to wait a couple years when the KHL folds because of insolvency before making an offer for Kovi.
"By the age of 18, the average American has witnessed 200,000 acts of violence on television, most of them occurring during Game 1 of the NHL playoff series." ~Steve Rushin
If he goes to the KHL now in the prime of his career, I wouldn’t f*ck him with Bob’s d*ck, ever. And if he ever did want to come back to the NHL, I wouldn’t pay him David Koci money in 3 years to be our 4th-line center. It would show a complete lack of drive for a guy to run away from the best competition in the world at his physical peak just for the money.
"We left (the combine) saying, 'Boy, that's pretty unique, what he has and his passion for this game and for winning.' He's been a winner, and you could see why." Josh McDaniels on Tim Tebow.
I think Stewart will be in that ballpark – either a 4 or 5 year deal paying him between $3 and $3.5 million per year.
I hope that the Avs can use Parise’s contract (2007/08/01) as leverage. I don’t think that Frolov’s deal is as comparable as his was signed 5 years ago right out of the lockout (2005/08/12). But, I still maintain that Stewart’s most likely comparables are a couple of other power forwards in Dustin Penner and Corey Perry.
This is what I previously said:
I have a feeling that Stewart’s agent is going to use Dustin Penner’s offer sheet and Corry Perry’s contract extension as comparables.
At the time of his contract offer, Perry was coming off seasons in which he played 56, 82, and 70 games and a season in which he scored 29G, 245, 54P in 70 games. His contract extension was 5 years at $5.325 million cap hit.
In Penner’s case, he was coming off of a rookie year (though, he played 19 games the previous year) in which he played 82 games, scoring 29G, 16A, 45P. His offer sheet was for 5 years at a $4.25 million cap hit.
Chris Stewart followed up a 53 game rookie season with a 28G, 36A, 64P season in 77 games played.
I think that his contract offer will fall somewhere between Penner’s and Perry’s and certainly not less than the $4million per year suggested. I think that Sherman is anticipating this and it was probably an underlying factor as to why he chose to deal Wolski at the deadline. Since, as some have noted, he’ll likely be looking for a nice pay raise as an RFA himself.
We all know that Penner was signed via offer sheet by then Oilers GM Kevin Lowe. Penner was literally signed the day after Parise (2007/08/02). And the following summer, Perry was re-signed by then Ducks GM Brian Burke (2008/07/01). And in Perry’s case, Burke and other GM’s learned the lesson of the previous summer and tendered Perry on 2008/06/25 to retain his rights.
I really think that the offer sheet by Lowe had lasting effects in that teams are now more consciously qualifying their RFA’s so as not to expose them to offer sheets. But, it also bumped up the contracts that top 6 forward RFA’s are signing by about $1 million per year.
I know that a lot of people disagree with me on this and are hesitant to see Stewart get that kind of money after just one good year. I’m just laying out the numbers and saying what’s out there. If Sherman can sign Stewart to Zach Parise money, he’s definitely doing his job.
by c0nquistad0rian on May 24, 2010 11:30 AM MDT reply actions
Just a follow up to that: Penner was Lowe’s second attempt at RFA poaching after his first attempt to nab Thomas Vanek was matched by the Sabres (2007/07/06). The Sabres had previously tendered Vanek a qualifying offer to retain his rights on 2007/06/20. That in mind, I guess that QO’s merely retain a player’s negotiating rights and do not protect him from outside offer sheets.
by c0nquistad0rian on May 24, 2010 11:38 AM MDT up reply actions
correct – QO’s mean the team retains matching rights, but until the player signs the deal they can wait for other offers. which is why just tendering Stewart isn’t enough
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on May 24, 2010 11:47 AM MDT up reply actions
This is a lot of number stuff and logic stuff and that kind of stuff for a very tired girl who had too much wine and too much Lost and too much “Are you fucking kidding me?” ranting for an hour afterward that kept her up way too late last night. I think I need a pat on the cheek and an, “It’s okay, you’re pretty” moment.
This is our team: underrated, filled with amazingly talented kids and veteran leaders, both young and old, who are buying into the vision of a hard working, fast moving, never-say-die game. They are the 2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche.
it’s okay, you’re pretty. math is hard.
can’t reach your cheek from here, so that will have to do
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on May 24, 2010 12:06 PM MDT up reply actions
I feel bad but this made me laugh.
A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day.
by SlamDunkTheFunk on May 24, 2010 12:44 PM MDT up reply actions
I don't feel bad
but you laughing made me laugh.
Quitter's People United Member #33
"I am a business major in college after all." - One MHR commenter's rationale for knowing more about the Denver Broncos than I do. LOL.
by Bob in Boulder on May 24, 2010 1:00 PM MDT up reply actions
It’s okay, and you’re gorgeous!
I’m soooo with you, but not the wine and Lost part. Just couldn’t sleep and can’t think straight due to hormones. I totally skip the long posts these days…
It’s true, she’s skipping long posts all the time…
If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!
don’t come crying to me when you fail the quiz
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on May 24, 2010 2:13 PM MDT up reply actions
Agree
When I gave him $4 M, I used Penner’s contract as a template and saw Wolski’s departure as a sign of making room for someone else. Based on his play, I only see Stewart’s production increasing. I think he’s a solid 70 point guy next year. A $4 M cap hit is fair for Stewie; although if Sherman can get it down in the mid 3’s it shows his great bargaining skills.
"Here's your dream: Matt Duchene, can he do it?... HE CAN! HE DID IT! MATT DUCHENE AND THE AVS ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS!" - Mike Haynes
I bet he does get it down to the mid 3s…the stint in Lake Erie, tho very short, has bargaining power
This is our team: underrated, filled with amazingly talented kids and veteran leaders, both young and old, who are buying into the vision of a hard working, fast moving, never-say-die game. They are the 2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche.
ouch
that hurt. back to just being pretty.
This is our team: underrated, filled with amazingly talented kids and veteran leaders, both young and old, who are buying into the vision of a hard working, fast moving, never-say-die game. They are the 2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche.
Beachie
Off topic, but did you see the JML inverview on the Av’s website? He said his worst subject in school was English. You’re an English teacher right? lol :)
http://avalanche.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=529795&navid=DL|COL|home
"Here's your dream: Matt Duchene, can he do it?... HE CAN! HE DID IT! MATT DUCHENE AND THE AVS ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS!" - Mike Haynes
I did see it
and totally laughed. I also used to have a lifted Jeep Wrangler which I adored. I’d actually planned on looking into getting another one when I moved back to Denver.
This is our team: underrated, filled with amazingly talented kids and veteran leaders, both young and old, who are buying into the vision of a hard working, fast moving, never-say-die game. They are the 2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche.
The wonders of Lost
too much wine and too much Lost and too much "Are you fucking kidding me?" ranting for an hour afterward
Years ago, I read in an interview with Lost’s creators that “not every question will be answered,” I thought : “I am not going to waste any more time on this show.” Any fidiot can put loads of weird shit into a program and not explain it.
End of season 2, I think that was…..
My opinion is worth about what you paid for it: Nothing.
I finally watched the very first episode on hulu the other night. First time I ever watched any of it. Don’t know, I thought it was somewhat interesting but also had this sort of “whole bunch of weird shit loosely thrown together” vibe to it. If I watch more of it, will I get to see the monsters in the jungle? Are they dinosaurs? Did they somehow travel through time? Why does that asian couple want to isolate themselves from the rest of the group? And what about the strange dude who enjoyed sitting out in the rain while everyone else was seeking cover?
Maybe I got my fill of unanswered questions by watching years and years of X-Files episodes and that is why I never gave Lost a shot?
Quitter's People United Member #33
"I am a business major in college after all." - One MHR commenter's rationale for knowing more about the Denver Broncos than I do. LOL.
by Bob in Boulder on May 25, 2010 10:23 AM MDT up reply actions
My problem with X-files is they let the series go on one-two seasons too long. Loved that show, and its unanswered questions. I guess I don’t mind those. They don’t leave me totally unsatisfied.
The Philadelphia Flyers: Let's do it for Lappy, man. We'll do it for Lappy!
Oh
Don’t get me wrong. I still enjoyed the X-Files. Except closer to the end. Lost didn’t seem as well put together though, based on the one show I watched.
Quitter's People United Member #33
"I am a business major in college after all." - One MHR commenter's rationale for knowing more about the Denver Broncos than I do. LOL.
by Bob in Boulder on May 25, 2010 10:37 AM MDT up reply actions
Lost was intentionally scatterbrained. That feeling you describe was what the writers/producers wanted you to feel. Lots of theories why, of course; mine is that it mirrors a person’s thoughts upon the realization that he/she is, in fact, lost.
The Philadelphia Flyers: Let's do it for Lappy, man. We'll do it for Lappy!

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