Avalanche Free Agency Game Plan: Forwards

ok, a better question is why wouldn’t you try to sign Kovy?

Sherman can’t say with a straight face that it’s about building a youth movement because Kovy is young. It can’t be about building through the draft because you’re just saying you want to be the Columbus Blue Jackets at that point.

When Pierre Lacroix rarely speaks these days he always says the same thing, “our goal as always is to win the Stanley Cup”. Let me suggest something to you Mr. Lacroix; when we were competing for cups this is exactly the kind of deal you would get done. If it’s about the money then it’s about ownership’s issues with budget, not the salary cap.

NO.

Paying one player $10M in the middle of rebuilding with youth is a risky venture. As our young players develop and emerge there salaries will increase and in no time the Avs will have a salary cap issue. Just look at what happened to the Blackhawks. The Avs need defense and Kovy does not represent an improvement in that area. An article in TSN yesterday about UFA forwards indicated that Kovy has difficulty adapting defensively. The Avs also need quality across all four lines to be successful. One player taking up 1/5 of the salary cap will ensure the Avs have the league minimum type players on the 3rd/4th line. The only plus associated with Kovy is goal scoring. His cap hit and defense aren’t worth 40 goals a year. The urgent need for the Avs is an improved D-Corps. We have prospects in the system and it’s only a matter of time.

The Avs don’t have an overpowering line to put out when you need an emergency goal. They get wins by out playing the other team for 60 with goals throughout the game. Kovie gives us down by one need a goal NOW push.

Kovie wants a long term deal. Structure a it where the cap comes in around $8mm or so. I am listening if the market is pushing to $9mm but not as closely. I won’t pay him the league max.

I want to know who those damn 12 “no” votes are! Give me names people! Torches and pitchforks!

I honestly just don’t see the downside anymore. DDC has run the numbers and the cap is not a problem as long as Sherm stays in the rebuilding mode and doesn’t go all sign-happy with the UFAs. There’s room to bring in one more key defenseman after seeing how the guys in the system pan out in a year or two, or even as a trade-deadline, Cup run acquisition, if needed. This is the kind of player a team needs if they expect to win a Stanley Cup. I don’t think any of us can honestly say, outside of Duchene, we have another player of this caliber either on the roster or coming up in the system, and only having one isn’t going to get it done. So if it’s not Kovy, it has to be someone. Why not him?

I am going to come right out and say it now. The Avs are stuck with the Defense they have now. No other team is going to take them off our hands not until the trade deadline possibly.

I feel the best option is to ride out the contracts and let them go. We maybe able to trade Liles and Cuminsky but I hate the idea of going off on a maybe. Signing Kovy at least helps build a foundation on offence that our D prospects can develope down in Lake Erie.

The salary cap shouldn’t be the issue. The issue is whether Kovie fits with this team and can he make the team better. On these two issues, I say yes. He’s a great fit at a great time and we’re in a great position to sign him.

Kovie is the only free agent forward I can justify spending the money on and taking ice time away from what we already have. His addition creates three formidable, if not dominant, offensive lines. Best yet, it creates three YOUNG offensive lines that can gel for a year as we start filtering in the young corps or defensemen. Perhaps we don’t win a Cup in 2011 with Kovie, but from 2012 to 2018 we should be looking good, with only Hejduk needing to be replaced. I could live with six+ years of:

Kovie-Stastny-Stewie
Mueller-Duchene-Hejduk/Stoa/Hishon
Galiardi-O’Reilly-Jones
Plus Yip to fill in on almost every line.

Congrats, Avs. You’ve done it. You’ve built from within, with one exception. Mission accomplished. Take a bow.

But let’s say they don’t sign Kovie and we dump $5 million on Paul Martin instead, or worse yet, some other stop-gap defensive free agent. Now we have another albatross weighing down our cap along with Liles as our young defensive prospects look for ice time. It would be nice if the Kovie-equivalent defenseman was available, but that happens as rarely as guys like Kovie hitting the market.

In my opinion, we can make this move and be a player, or we can stand pat, play it safe and take our rightful place next to the Nashvilles of the league.

You had me before the jump DDC! It’s a no-brainer (no offense to those voting no … oh, who am I kidding, offense intended!). Serious about competing for a cup over the next few years? Sign the best UFA available who also happens to fill a significant need. Not serious about competing for a cup? Let someone else in the West sign him. The thought of Kovie taking nice feeds from Stats and Dutchy and burying them in the back of the net should make anyone drool.

The road to ruin is paved with great potential.

Yip, Mueller, Jones, Galiardi O’Reilly, Stoa, Hishon even Duchene all have tremendous potential. Some more than others obviously, but at this point that’s all they are, is potential. They may develop into dynamic offensive forces, but then again, they may not.

Kovi’s scored goals. He’s Bona Fide. If all the guys above even realize their potential, are they all 40-50 goal scorers? (Hint: no) So we bring Kovi in right now, and watch him put up 120+ goals over the next 3 years and then find out that All those guys above are dynamic offensive and they score 20+ goals per season and we face the problem of not being able to pay one or two of them… umm how is this a bad thing?

So when it all boils down to it the reason people don’t want Kovi is because it’s possible that they could enjoy his 40+ goal seasons, and potentially 20+ goal seasons by some kids. Then when those guys that fulfilled all that potential are due a big raise the Avs are still “stuck” with a 90-point player and valuable trade assets? Not to mention the Avs get to choose which ones to trade and get rid of (if necessary)?

If that’s the biggest “problem” the Avs are facing by signing Kovi, then I’m going to sign up for that in a heartbeat.

Oh and if some of those guys don’t work out (injuries, stalled development, giant coke habit, whatever) then we have mitigated that risk by having a proven goal scorer.

Maybe I’m not getting the downside here, but it seems to be that signing a proven top 15 scorer might give the Avs problems signing guys who may develop 3-4 years down the road, at which point they would have value as trade assets (look what Byfuglein returned) anyways.

If the Avs don’t, or can’t, sign Kovi. Another option no on this list to look at is Colby Armstrong. I realize that’s a huge downgrade over Kovi, but he’d still be an upgrade to the offense.

Per Bobby Mac’s Twitter

COL’s Tom Preissing is on unconditional waivers and if not claimed tomorrow at noon, will get bought out by the Avalanche

Avs won’t make offer to Kovi.

Winnik is next Kovalchuk!!!!!

…

It takes money to make money. I hope this is a bluff.

More interesting bits from AD’s latest blog:

The Avs definitely will let their older unrestricted free agents go. Darcy Tucker, Brett Clark, Marek Svatos, Ruslan Salei, Stephane Yelle and Chris Durno will not be brought back.

Still working on a deal for Hendricks, and he thinks they will sign all of their RFAs.

I wonder if there is any hang over from the “Lets No Play Jones” from last year.

By not filling the need for a left wing scoring threat, should we be close to a playoff spot come March and need to fill that role, we will now have to trade away picks/prospects/players to get what we just passed up on, and guaranteed to be not as talented.

The cost of signing Kovie was $8-9 million. The cost of not signing Kovie could be Cohen or Gaunce or Pickard or Chewy or 2012’s No. 1, plus the cost of whatever lesser wing they shove down our throat.

Jimmy Howard will convince Kovy to play for Detroit for 35 cents a year for 15 years.

And Santa Kroenke left us a big lump of coal named Daniel Winnik under our tree. Thanks Santa Kroenke. But I was really hoping for that race track named Kovie.

Is that someone in the Avs’ organization is playing AD like Paul Newman’s character played Dickie Dunn in Slap Shot.

“Hey, AD, I’m really not supposed to leak this but man I’m really bummin’ here.”

“What is it PL?”

“Stan’s holding real tight on the budget, won’t even let us give Kovalchuk an offer. We’ll be lucky to sign anyone for more than 1 or 2 million and get up to the cap floor this season. Man, things are rough. But you won’t let this out, will you AD? I mean, at least don’t tell anyone you heard it from me.”

“No problem PL, I won’t reveal my source.”

AD blogs away. PL prepares to call Kovie’s agent right after midnight.

This is an argument I don’t get:

Only because, while it might be fun to have him around, I don’t think I want him here.

I want to develop through drafting. I don’t want to be like the Blackhawks. Bah.

Lets sign Stewart, Mueller, and Radar first.

The Blackhawks drafted the core that will still be with them. Kane, Toews, Keith etc. And yes, while they are in cap trouble this year…next year they will still have

Kane, Toews, Bolland, Hossa, Sharp (they will resign him and ship out Versteeg), Keith, Seabrook and most likely Hjalmarsson, Niemi, Campbell (who was phenomenal in the playoffs but still has a major albatross contract) and more. THey will still be a tough tough team to beat…AND

They just won a flippin’ Stanley Cup! Why wouldn’t you “want to be the Blackhawks?”

Help help! I'm being repressed!