Paying the price to compete for the Cup - Now with a Poll!
by Bob in Boulder on Jul 20, 2010 11:23 AM MDT
Email
PrintSo the summer of Kovie has sadly turned into the summer of Meh for our beloved Avalanche. Or the summer of "building from within." Or the summer of trying to get up to the salary cap floor while maintaining outrageous ticket prices with virtually no marketing. Or, more succinctly, the summer of FAIL.
Among the hundred or so things bothering me about the Avalanche approach (word used in honor of Norm Jones) to this offseason is their continued reluctance to offer most players long-term contracts. They made an exception for Stats, due to the market at the time. And they have made a few mid-range blunders with Hannan and Liles coming to mind. But for the most part, they have a history of only locking up even key players for 2 or 3 years. But will this strategy work in the new NHL if they really want to compete for a Stanley Cup again someday?
The Red Wings started the shenanigans with the Zetterberg contract. Long-term deal, tapering off at the end, cap friendly allowing them to lock up their best two-way forward (and the one excluded from the very name of the worst blog in history) until he retires while also leaving them with cap room to build around him. Hossa received a similar deal with Chicago. And now we have Kovie. Let's look at his reported deal, shall we?
2010-2011 $6M
2011-2012 $6M
2012-2013 $11.5M
2013-2014 $11.5M
2014-2015 $11.5M
2015-2016 $11.5M
2016-2017 $11.5M
2017-2018 $10.5M
2018-2019 $8.5M
2019-2020 $6.5M
2020-2021 $3.5M
2021-2022 $750K
2022-2023 $550K
2023-2024 $550K
2024-2025 $550K
2025-2026 $550K
2026-2027 $550K
102M for 17 years. Kovalchuk is 27 years-old. In reality, he probably has around 10 more good years ahead of him. He may choose to stick around at year 11 for a "paltry" $3.5M, but he's as good as retired from the NHL before the 2021-2022 season. Some interesting things about the deal. First, I'm sure that nobody saw the first two years at $6M per coming. Very shrewd move by Lou to save up front in order to pay the big outlay later. Next, the 5 years at 11.5M per is huge. How is anyone going to turn down that kind of jack? But the big thing, of course, is that even with the huge monetary investment the Devils are making, the cap hit of the contract is only $6.0M per year. That's right, less than Paul Stastny's cap hit. And much less than many other superstars in the league. In a word, the Devils were creative. Much more creative than, well, sitting around and doing nothing. Or "building from within." And as Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Chicago have shown over the past few years, in the cap era, being "creative" wins Cups. Ask the Columbuses and Atlantas of the league what sitting around doing nothing does.
MileHighHockey.com is a fan community, allowing members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Colorado Avalanche and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editors of MileHighHockey.com.
130 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I just posted in the other thread, but Dean Lombardi said he was offering along the lines of 13 years / $80 million.
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jul 20, 2010 11:34 AM MDT reply actions
Devils certainly blew that away
Considering that he’s getting $95M in the first 10 years of the deal. Huge payday for Kovie. But if the Devils win a few Cups during those 10 years, the deal will be paid for.
Your 2010-2011 Colorado Avalanche: Reaching Up to the Cap Floor
by Bob in Boulder on Jul 20, 2010 11:39 AM MDT up reply actions
fwiw, it’s ridiculous that this loophole exists, but hat’s off to the GMs who can find ways to get it done.
and yes, I wish the Avs had made this deal
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jul 20, 2010 11:44 AM MDT up reply actions
…the summer ofFAIL.
…the summer of some Av’s fans’ FAILure to hop off of Kovalchuk’s sack.
Adrian Dater explains on the Denver Post Avalanche page:
…with perhaps as many as a third of the NHL’s 30 teams losing money last season, opposition to such a plan could lead to another protracted work stoppage after the 2011-12 season. Because of that uncertainty, teams seem hesitant to sign players beyond next season…
Allah is God,
and Dater is His Prophet!
Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October
Hopfenkopf,
Why does it seem like everyone in charge of writing for this site only wants to write about Kovalchuk? I don’t get it…
Disclaimer,
I’m full on drunk.
That being said, Kovy is a pimp. No doubt.
If there is compensation for Kovy promotion, I have straight up missed out.
I would have loved to have had Kovy at a reasonable (+/- $8.5M/year) rate. That being said, I was completely taken in by the titillation of the Parise / SoS chemistry at the Olympics, so I’d be happy to take Parise as a long term consolation prize for my beloved Avs.
I just want my team to try and to tell me that they’re trying. If they fail, well, OK, I guess, but pissing away the future for an extra $0.00000000000000000000057 per share is far too close to my real life workaday life to tolerate, thanks.
Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October
by Hopfenkopf on Jul 21, 2010 12:07 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, too bad Parise can’t play for the Av’s. I’d rather see him play with the Av’s, than Kovalchuk. That would be pretty sweet-ass sweet.
Being drunk, I can’t stand it. I mean, I don’t like the feeling of being drunk. I don’t mind being a little bit drunk, but I HATE being the kind of drunk where I can’t walk or even think straight, or close my eyes without feeling like I’m on a roller coaster.
Takes a professional alcoholic to know when to say when. Trust me, I wish more people knew how to avoid being that guy. (or girl) That being said, being able to handle your buzz can make alcohol very enjoyable. It’s all about the semantics and tolerance anyways. One persons “drunk” could be another persons “shitface hambone wobbly ass wasted”. Sounds like you’re on the right track. At least for yourself, which is the only thing that matters. I think people who don’t mind being the kind of drunk you mention have more problems than just alcohol FWIW.
MHH- A drinking site with a hockey problem
Detroit Sucks
I like being drunk…but I hate being hungover. Which is why I very rarely drink
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jul 21, 2010 7:01 AM MDT up reply actions
It’s a risk/reward thing, maybe the next time you get drunk you won’t get hungover, but you never know unless you get drunk.
Are you forgetting that I was a professional twice over - an analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Jul 21, 2010 7:45 AM MDT up reply actions
Vitamin B and water. Really cuts down on the hangover. Alcohol dehydrates you and depletes your B vitamins, which causes most of the “hungover” feeling, so stocking up on those before bed can mitigate a lot of the blah the next day. That chaser stuff is mostly Vitamin B complex.
MHH- A drinking site with a hockey problem
Detroit Sucks
I go for the two glasses of water/2 aspirin right before bed. Gets me on the right track. Sorta. And I have a bagel in the morning.
Why?
Because I love bagels.
almost my routine, asprin/vitamin at night with a full glass of water. Bagel with jalopeno creamcheese/gatorade and a red bull with another vitamin in the morning to fully work it out.
Are you forgetting that I was a professional twice over - an analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Jul 21, 2010 10:50 AM MDT up reply actions
Nice. Love Jalapenos but I go for the Asiago bagel with sundried tomato cream cheese. And I like Monsters better too while my body can still digest them.
But you and I, sir, are men after the same heart.
I might not be a hockeyexpert, but I’ve got my drinking down pat.
Are you forgetting that I was a professional twice over - an analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Jul 21, 2010 1:06 PM MDT up reply actions
You're good
I’ve watched some highlights, so I know
A nice cold coke the next morning helps me. When I drank more heavily and more often back in my younger days I would drink pickle juice the next day. Yes, pickle juice.
Your 2010-2011 Colorado Avalanche: Reaching Up to the Cap Floor
by Bob in Boulder on Jul 21, 2010 10:44 AM MDT up reply actions
Original Chubby’s Burrito Smothered in X hot Chile with a Rica Horchata to wash it all down. Cures the hangover everytime.
by pikeyrubbish on Jul 21, 2010 11:26 AM MDT up reply actions
I’m not sure i’d want to replace my hangover with heartburn, but i’ll take it under advisement.
Are you forgetting that I was a professional twice over - an analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Jul 21, 2010 11:34 AM MDT up reply actions
That is why you have the horchata better than Tums, Malox and Milk combined to create the super antacid relief.
by pikeyrubbish on Jul 21, 2010 11:40 AM MDT up reply actions
Sierra Mist and graham crackers is my patent pending hangover helper.
The 09/10 Colorado Rockies: Starring Johnny Herrera as THE ANSWER
THIS IS BUFFALO NATION GODZILLA HAS AWAKEN - abayarde
SBNation Denver: Because the Rapids are people too!
Burgundy Wave: My Rapids Blog
by UZ on Jul 22, 2010 6:09 AM MDT up reply actions
Just take a huge bong hit in the morning.
Fushigi - It floats, it levitates, it will confuse the senses with it's mind-blowing movements.
by Pinchy The Lobster on Jul 23, 2010 6:06 PM MDT up reply actions
I’ll start writing about the next coming of John Leclair, Daniel Winnik.
Are you forgetting that I was a professional twice over - an analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Jul 21, 2010 7:46 AM MDT up reply actions
Why does it seem like everyone in charge of writing for this site only wants to write about Kovalchuk? I don’t get it…
Just to piss people off. And for the record, I wasn’t on the Kovy train until the writing was on the wall that the Avs wouldn’t do anything else. No depth signings for LW, no NHL-caliber defenseman. You gotta get something while the getting is good.
That being said, I think the team shot themselves in the foot long term last season. They should have been a bottom 5 team again. Luckily, they’ll get that chance this season.
If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!
I’m sure we will get hot and heavy in to the prognostication going in to training camp but I’ve been vacillating on if the Avs will take a big step back or keep on winning.
My gut tells me the Avs are going to regress. However, I think Andy and Duchene are the real deal. Andy is the best goaltender the Avs have had since Roy retired. He’s a relentless competitor. Duchene’s attitude after losing in the playoffs and the limited quotes I’ve seen in the off season point to a guy who is bound and determined to improve. He says he’s going to shoot the puck more and it’s pretty obvious he’s been hitting the weights.
No more useless shifts from Tucker and Svatos. I see a team that will be better. It doesn’t mean they will win more (hi Corsi!). Even guys like Cumiskey and Wilson are really coming off their first full seasons as NHL guys. I guess where I’m at is that I think the Avs are headed towards a similar season (fun to watch!) but other teams around them have improved which will put them in a relatively poorer position in the standings.
I’m not so sure mr. stormclouds. I don’t know that a whole lot happend to the competion. Who’s moving down? Chicago definately, phoenix has lost a lot even putting the baron at center. I think that Nashville and Vancouver improved but they were ahead of the avs in the standings already. So that leaves Dallas with that hippie Raycroft in next after Lehtonen goes down after sneezing wrong. St. Louis could move up, if Halak is any good and if all their young player improve (kinda like the avs). Calgary is different, I don’t know about better. Anaheim made some improvement and so did the adjectives, but they had a lot of ground to make up in the first place. So the avs should be in the same spot again this year, fighting for the last couple of playoff spots (which means they could miss the playoffs, but not by much and finish with the 12th to 19th pick in the draft)—which I sure has factored into the lack of action of the front office this year. I wouldnt be surprised if the avs picked up a forward and maybe a depth defenseman by the time camp starts, hopefully it’s Torres, but I’d live with nolan or guerin.
Are you forgetting that I was a professional twice over - an analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Jul 21, 2010 10:00 AM MDT up reply actions
There is significant risk in this contract too. While it’s certainly possible that Kovachuk can be a solid contributor until he’s 37 it’s more likely that he’s scoring about 20 goals a year by the time he’s 32-33 and is way overpaid by that point. This contract will be just about unmovable (you never know with the Rangers). Am I happy the avs have done nothing this offseason-either on or off the ice? No, but am I happy they didn’t saddle themselves with this contract? Yes.
Are you forgetting that I was a professional twice over - an analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Jul 20, 2010 11:49 AM MDT reply actions
if he’s slowed down at 37, they can buy him out and it wont hurt them. hell, it’ll probably help them
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jul 20, 2010 11:53 AM MDT up reply actions
Pretty sure his buyout would be less than Preissing’s. at least it would be at 38, and probably even at 37. Hell, at 38 a one year payoff on the buyout wouldn’t even be that much.
MHH- A drinking site with a hockey problem
Detroit Sucks
At 35, they persuade him to retire and all that comes off the books.
"Here's your dream: Matt Duchene, can he do it?... HE CAN! HE DID IT! MATT DUCHENE AND THE AVS ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS!" - Mike Haynes
Lou, and New Jersey, have ways of persuading things to happen. Remember the end of Mogilny’s time there? Most people don’t. By design.
Your 2010-2011 Colorado Avalanche: Reaching Up to the Cap Floor
by Bob in Boulder on Jul 20, 2010 12:04 PM MDT up reply actions
I’m worried that Lou will somehow persuade Rolston to eat a bullet just to get rid of his contract.
/Wow, I crossed that line so fast I could barely see it.
"Half the game is mental; the other half is being mental." -- Jim McKenny
Line what line?
There are two ways of being happy: We must either diminish our wants or augment our means - either may do - the result is the same and it is for each man to decide for himself and to do that which happens to be easier.
- Benjamin Franklin
even if they can’t (and like Bob says, Lou has ways) it’s still not a bad contract to buyout at that point.
MHH- A drinking site with a hockey problem
Detroit Sucks
what about 33? Kariya and Forsberg were just about done then.
Are you forgetting that I was a professional twice over - an analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Jul 20, 2010 12:41 PM MDT up reply actions
That is a risk. But there are numerous other players that aren’t washed up at that point, and Kovie doesn’t have the injury history of either Forsberg or Kariya,
MHH- A drinking site with a hockey problem
Detroit Sucks
Injuries are the big questionmark. You never know when a Pavel Bure-type nagging injury is going to pop up.
Perhaps you guys can help me out with this. If the Devils trade Kovie in the year 2020, would his cap hit to his new team still be $6M?
"Half the game is mental; the other half is being mental." -- Jim McKenny
yes the cap hit will be 6m, the salary just wont be that.
Are you forgetting that I was a professional twice over - an analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Jul 20, 2010 2:18 PM MDT up reply actions
I think so. If a player is traded, his cap hit moves with him. If they are traded mid-season, the cap hit is split between the two teams for the pro-rated amount of time they will spend on the new team.
"Here's your dream: Matt Duchene, can he do it?... HE CAN! HE DID IT! MATT DUCHENE AND THE AVS ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS!" - Mike Haynes
If they buy him out, do they only take a cap hit for the percentage of the salary remaining on the contract, or are they also still liable for the prorated cap hit for the salary already paid on the front loaded contract?
Ex. Kovy has five years remaining when he’s bought out, at 550k per year and a cap hit of 6M per year. The buyout spreads the cap hit over 10 years.
Is the buyout cap hit:
a) 5 * 550k * 67% / 10 = 184.25k per year for 10 years
b) 184.25k + (102M – (5 * 550k) – (12 * 6M) / 10) = 2.90925k per year for 10 years
by Inebriated Simian Miscreants on Jul 21, 2010 7:00 AM MDT up reply actions
Neither.
Capgeek.com has a cool calculator for this. Here’s what it says:
ILYA KOVALCHUK BUYOUT FROM CAPGEEK.COM
2022-2023: $5,633,333
2023-2024: $5,633,333
2024-2025: $5,633,333
2025-2026: $5,633,333
2026-2027: $5,633,333
2027-2028: $183,333
2028-2029: $183,333
2029-2030: $183,333
2030-2031: $183,333
2031-2032: $183,333
Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October
Interesting. So its:
(Original Cap Hit) – (Yearly Salary) + (Yearly Buyout Cost) = Buyout Cap HIt
$6M – $550k + $183k = $5.633M for the first 5 years
$0 – $0 + $183k = $183k for the last 5 years
by Inebriated Simian Miscreants on Jul 24, 2010 4:34 PM MDT up reply actions
I don’t think it would be THAT immovable. Look at a budget conscious team like Nashville. The cap hit would help them get to the floor but the actual outlay would be much less. There’s no reason he wouldn’t be some other team’s version of the Preissing buyout except he can actually play at the NHL level, most likely even in his late 30’s.
If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!
Duchene
No one has really made a point of mentioning this. We all know he’s an RFA in 2012. Ok, let’s assume there is not lockout and everything is the same.
He will be 21 at that time, i think. He will likely have been an all-star, probably our leading scorer, and even though i love SoS, likely the best player on the team. This building from within stuff is annoying, sure. But he will be the first real player that will test the new management’s approach. If he gets a 2 year deal or some crap, yeah the Avs are fucked.
But, I think they will give him a gigantic deal, something like 10-12 years. He will be the franchise, he will be the Avalanche. When all these rookies need contracts, and push comes to shove, I think PL and GS will be just as clever as Lou. I think they are reluctant to jump on “clever” deals like this now and will wait and pull those strings when these rookies come.
Here, I am going to say this. Kovy is great but I think Duchene will be better. If I have to choose between Duchene and Kovy, I choose Duchene. I hope averring that does not derail my point.
Jimmy Howard invented the Stanley Cup.
Don’t jinx the shit!
But I might be persuaded to agree.
I’m not unhappy that we missed out on Kovy, but I am 1,687 kinds of pissed that we didn’t even try – a little bit.
Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October
Are you sure we didn’t? I keep coming back to Kovy’s agent that said he had an offer from the Avalanche. Maybe it was ‘only’ 7 mil for 7 years, but I do think that they sent out something.
Thanks Joe...
The wonders of Scotch Whiskey, eh?
Anywho,
If the Avs had tried, and it was true, and they had the least, tiniest, most least significantest clue in the whole F*&(ing world, they would have said so. That alone would have been worth 1,000 season tickets, but nevermind…..
Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October
The world may never know….
Also, what are you drinking? My buddy just gave me a bottle of Craggenmore 12 year with about 3 fingers left in it, but I don’t feel like getting into it tonight. Also, don’t the Scotch spell it whisky for some unfathomable reason?
Thanks Joe...
Fair Warning:
I’m 4 sheets to the wind at the moment. Can’t remember whether Scotch or Irish is Whiskey/Whisky, but after two beers, a bottle of Cab and about 300mL of Whisk(e)y, I’m not sure that I give two shits.
In any event, I"m also steering clear of the good stuff (the 1.5 fingers of Macallan single malt highland 12 year) in favor of the crap (12 year Johnnie Walker or whateverthefuck Black Blended horseshit crap).
I’ve got buddies of 2+ decades who’ve recently started a distillery and despite my best efforts to the contrary are leaning more to their Irish than their Scots roots, so……
Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October
Side note
I will totally buy a bottle when your friends start selling their stuff!
I know my name is spelled "Luxury Yacht" but it's actually pronounced Throatwarbler Mangrove.
Member of the PFJ and the Spanish Inquisition.
No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!!
by Luxury Yacht on Jul 20, 2010 11:57 PM MDT up reply actions
I haven’t gotten down there yet to get the Whisk(e)y, but they brewed bitchin’ beer for many, many years….
Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October
I really, really, should go to bed, but I’m so hyped up from the bullshit of the last two days that…..
Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October
Whoo hoo Drunk! Scotch is Whisky, everywhere else is Whiskey. You spell awfully good for a drunk, btw.
MHH- A drinking site with a hockey problem
Detroit Sucks
I e> U
EYE WUZ ALLWAYZ A GUD SPLLR, BTW.
Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October
The Colombuses and Atlantas struggle...
Due to inept drafting/trades and not being in a market that many players want to play. The teams players want to play for generally do not include smaller market teams (unless they are from there). Until smaller market teams start working smarter when drafting and trading to build a winner… We will see the same hockey teams leading the charge in winning, free agency, etc. Tampa has got to be thanking god Yzerman came along…
I’m waiting the Yzerman in Tampa thing out. Great hockey player != general hockey greatness. See “The Great One”.
"Here's your dream: Matt Duchene, can he do it?... HE CAN! HE DID IT! MATT DUCHENE AND THE AVS ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS!" - Mike Haynes
Only difference
The Great One made a horrible coach. Yzerman is not the coach of Tampa. That might make a difference.
Jimmy Howard invented the Stanley Cup.
He ain’t the coach, but I think the concept still applies. His signings havn’t been terrible (yet), but I’m still reserving judgement for another few years.
"Here's your dream: Matt Duchene, can he do it?... HE CAN! HE DID IT! MATT DUCHENE AND THE AVS ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS!" - Mike Haynes
I think Yzerman has a better chance than Wayne.
Yzerman worked under Ken Holland and Scotty Bowman. You don’t get better teachers than that. Wayne didn’t even coach a minor league game before getting behind the bench. Yzerman has at least studied a bit.
Which also makes me think that I’d like to see Sakic get a little GM experience under his belt before we turn the franchise over to him.
"Half the game is mental; the other half is being mental." -- Jim McKenny
odds are that sakic is the gm of some other team in the next 3-8 years, just like steve Y
Are you forgetting that I was a professional twice over - an analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Jul 20, 2010 2:19 PM MDT up reply actions
He’ll probably want to go somewhere where his hands are not tied by a cheap ass owner building from within.
Your 2010-2011 Colorado Avalanche: Reaching Up to the Cap Floor
by Bob in Boulder on Jul 20, 2010 3:03 PM MDT up reply actions
Is there any other franchise he’s not spending money on right now?
Are you forgetting that I was a professional twice over - an analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Jul 20, 2010 10:08 PM MDT up reply actions
Stan isn’t spending money on the Nuggets either, apparently
MHH- A drinking site with a hockey problem
Detroit Sucks
Gives a bit of credence to the notion that hes purposefully devaluing the teams for the transfer to his son / daughter / bastard-from-another-woman. I guess.
Thanks Joe...
Al Harrington and his 35 mill disagrees. Also put them into the luxury tax so in reality it’s even more.
Are you forgetting that I was a professional twice over - an analyst and a therapist. The world's first analrapist.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Jul 21, 2010 7:48 AM MDT up reply actions
I think in terms of off ice “hockey smarts” Yzerman can take Gretzky all day long. Gretzky was a great player and had great hockey skills pertaining to his on-ice play. But Yzerman has always struck me as the guy with the skills that he can take off the ice, the guy that can be a great player and also a great judge of hockey “talent.”
I think Gretzky was a hockey player, pure and simple…
Help help! I'm being repressed!
Three years and they’ll be begging for another team to take his contract off their hands. Spector will be shooting down rumors because no team could possibly take him because of the cap.
ridiculous.
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jul 20, 2010 1:25 PM MDT up reply actions
Man I wish I could fast-forward in time right now so I could post the Spector comments on this. I guess I’ll get back to you in 3. If it doesn’t happen then, it will between the years of 13-18.
This reminds me a little of the M Savard deal that happened earlier in the year. Who could have predicted they would have buyers remorse so soon?
There are 39 other players with higher cap hits than Kovie, and how many of those guys will be top five in league scoring? There will be a lot more remorse coming from teams that are paying more for crowd pleasers like Mikku Koivu and Daniel Briere.
And when he doesn’t live up to the contract, he’s bought out. Practically no harm done unless you’re the owner of the Devils.
"Half the game is mental; the other half is being mental." -- Jim McKenny
Why will they have buyers remorse? Do the Avs have Stastny buyer’s remorse?
My only beef with the deal is that I don’t think any winger is worth over 8 million (in real dollars) per year. I don’t care if it’s Iginla, Ovechkin, Nash or Gaborik. In the playoffs, wingers are too easy to neutralize when matching shifts with your top defensive line and checking line is so precise. Kovy could open up room for his linemates or even other lines but it will be very hard to quantify his value because his production will suffer in a playoff format.
Centers, top pairing D and goalie are smarter uses of your balance sheet if you have a team budget (ie not the Rangers). So while the Devils are hiding his cost in the salary cap, they are paying real dollars right now. If those real dollars were like 7-8 million then I think he’s golden and a perfect Avalanche fit. With that deal, the Devils better be making big money. And we getter not hear about their owner bitching about $ come the new CBA negotiation.
I agree, except
Ovechkin. I am not sure he can or has been neutralized for an extended period of time. He may play badly but that’s just him.
Jimmy Howard invented the Stanley Cup.
I do think the Avs have a little remorse over what they are paying for Stastny.
Devils will have buyers remorse because of the length of the contract. If they happen to start failing and wish to rebuild, they can’t do it completely because of Kovi. They are completely tied to a player that will not likely bring them the cup. Also, if the cap goes down, it will only make it worse.
If the cap didn’t go down during the worst recession since the great depression, it’s not going down
Intelligent opinion does not follow the transitive property
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jul 20, 2010 4:31 PM MDT up reply actions
So once after lockout? It has been rising ever since.
I spent more effort eating a pudding than Tyler Arnason skated last year.
The only way it goes down is if the players agree to it, and the only way that will happen is if the escrow is eliminated, which is essentially a wash.
Intelligent opinion does not follow the transitive property
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jul 20, 2010 5:00 PM MDT up reply actions
The players agreed to the cap the first time, so I don’t see how it’s impossible for them to make a similar agreement. It’s all a negotiation that both sides need to come to an agreement on. One does not exist without the other, which means neither party is in control. In any case, I don’t see why we are arguing about this. My statement was, “If the cap goes down, it will only make it worse”. Do you think the Devils will be better off if the cap goes down?
Because the players have all the leverage in this next one. The owners basically got everything they wanted, if they go out and tell the players they need something, like a lower cap, they are essentially admitting a mistake the last time around. It’s a PR nightmare for the owners…
More importantly, it would be a PR nightmare for Betteman. Not just publicly, but it could cost him his job. It would be a complete and total admission that he had no idea what he was doing when he cost hockey a year of revenues.
The owners don’t have the leverage to get away with a lowering of the cap. I’d bet a good amount of money that there’s no lowering of the cap.
And I think it’s a moot point. The cap isn’t going down. If I find $1B dollars I’m buying the Avs, it’s a great point but it’s not happening.
Intelligent opinion does not follow the transitive property
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jul 20, 2010 5:22 PM MDT up reply actions
I think I could agree with you on a lot of that. It does seem like the owners messed up though, sense the minimum now is about the same as the maximum was at the start of the cap era.
It wont be the ceiling that the owners try to lower, it will be the floor.
If for some reason we see the players fold under pressure and we see a decreased cap it will be in the same way they implemented the cap last time. A percentage rollback for all existing contracts.
Either way the Kovalchuk cap hit wont hurt the NJD.
I understand economics and all of that, but:
If it’s the floor the owners want lowered, maybe they should consider getting out of NHL ownership. I know that will cause tons of problems around the league, but it’s been said. If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.
By lowering the floor, some other owners might ice a bigger joke of a team than they do now. Who cares about being competitive when one can make a quick buck?
Then, both types of owners will go cry and ask for revenue sharing when the few fans they have left wise up and stop going due to feeling taken for granted.
I know my name is spelled "Luxury Yacht" but it's actually pronounced Throatwarbler Mangrove.
Member of the PFJ and the Spanish Inquisition.
No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!!
by Luxury Yacht on Jul 20, 2010 6:20 PM MDT up reply actions
The inductive leap in your statement above is mind boggling.
The difference between albatross contract in year 3 and year 13 nearly defies quantification.
Perhaps I’ll come back tomorrow when I haven’t had 2 beers and a bottle of Cab to demonstrate same.
Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October
How
Do they get away with 550K in the final years when that is less then the league min for his age of a player??
Let the new season begin already!!!
I just love, and wonder how it got approved, the last six years on that contract. At that time, I think even the $750k might almost be the league minimum. It’s almost insulting to everyone’s intelligence.
So, say some obscenely rich owner comes along and wants to offer Tavares a 20 year, $120 mil contract. They go and pay him $50 mil the first two years, then $10 mil the third year, and $9,999,984 the fourth year. Then, for the last 16 years he gets a buck a year. I wonder if that would work? The cap hit would work out to be around six a year. So why not?
/sarc. I think my math’s off anyway…
I know my name is spelled "Luxury Yacht" but it's actually pronounced Throatwarbler Mangrove.
Member of the PFJ and the Spanish Inquisition.
No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!!
You may have been sarcastic, but you’re not far off. As Jibble has mentioned before, just give a guy a 100 year contract and pay the last 80 years in the smallest amount possible to get the cap number down. This loophole in the CBA is a joke on the level of “The Aristocrats.”
"Half the game is mental; the other half is being mental." -- Jim McKenny
More genius behind the NJ deal
Notice the first two years of the contract. $6M per, exactly at the cap hit for the entire deal. When the CBA is up in two years, one of two things can happen:
1. The league stays with a hard cap and teams deal with the cards they are currently playing with (which, in the Avs’ case, will apparently be close to none), or
2. The league caves in and agrees to some sort of luxury tax, soft cap, similar to basketball.
If number one happens, chances are the Devils have to stay with Kovie, pay him the big bucks to play for 8 or 9 more years and then retire, and his cap hit remains at a very reasonable $6M. If number two happens, suddenly the market for Kovie increases (hello NY Rangers!), and if things aren’t working out in NJ, there are trade partners willing to pay him big money and take on the reasonable cap hit.
Your 2010-2011 Colorado Avalanche: Reaching Up to the Cap Floor
Argh
My first post in months and you beat me to my points by seconds.
I remember hearing Helene something-or-other (the Kings journalist) on the radio the other day, on Ottawa radio no less, talking about how the potential CBA re-arrangement had a huge part to play in negotiations. Apparently Grossman wanted a large bonus (ala Dany Heatley) on July 1st of the 12-13 season in case of lockout. I haven’t seen anything yet about it, but I wouldn’t be surprised to hear that most of that 11.5 million in the first couple seasons comes through bonuses.
Also, assuming the KHL is still in existence when the time comes, I can definitely see Kovalchuk leaving the Devils around his 3.5 million-a-year season to sign for more money in the KHL. Kovy makes more money finishing his career in his homeland, while NJ gets a franchise player at a really-good player cap hit through his prime. Everybody wins and Lou smiles to himself in his grave.
by '96 Avs Bandwagon on Jul 20, 2010 4:53 PM MDT up reply actions
To clarify...
When I say leave for the KHL, I assume something similar to what occured with Nylander last season. Who knows what the transfer agreements between the two leagues are in a decade but I would assume there is a way to achieve it when desired by all parties that will not piss off the IIHF.
by '96 Avs Bandwagon on Jul 20, 2010 5:02 PM MDT up reply actions
Atlanta DID try to do something about this. They offered Kovalchuk ten years $100m, which isn’t 17, but still heck of a lot. It’s just that nobody wants to play for them.
IMO, if you are handing out this kind of contracts, the players you are giving them to must be your franchise player that will hand you success. You are taking a gigantic risk, since if it fails to work, you have a gigantic albatross. When Detroit handed Zetterberg that deal with the fact that he had considerable playoff success already in mind; they know they can build a Stanley Cup winner with him. Chicago also saw Toews, Kane, Keith and Hossa as the foundation of a championship team, and threw the long contracts at them. On the other hand, Boston is already having second thoughts about Marc Savard.
So is Kovalchuk that kind of player? I’m not totally convinced. He is remarkably consistent goalscorer, and has played at impossible situations in Atlanta. Yet on the other hand, he has played in the worst division in hockey for the majority of his career and has negligible playoff success. I think Sherman took a hard look at Kovie and in the end decided he wasn’t the right player to take the Avs to the next level; Lou obviously thought differently. I guess Lou is worshiped as some kind of demi-god around here for some reason, but I’m not ready to accept his every act as a stroke of genius yet. We are already talking about NJ needing to cut secondary scorers like Rolston, Langenbrunner and Elias, and even a franchise player like Parise. I think we can only hail this as a genius move at least after a season of success (and lack of Parise moving).
As for our hesitance to hand out long-term contracts, it’s of factor of too small sample size for the majority of these players, especially with guys like Stewie and Muller who have a short history of extreme inconsistency. The difference between us and the likes of Columbus and Atlanta is that we have a history of great success and that will remain attractive to players. That means the mass amount of cap space is an asset that can be managed, rather than just wasted space. Of course, with our attendance issues, that window may be shrinking, but for the next two years at least there’s still room for manoever IMO.
I spent more effort eating a pudding than Tyler Arnason skated last year.
I'm all about sloppy seconds with Parise,
but Lou has a track record sufficient to maintain a highly competitive team in the pre- and post-cap years and they’ve made the playoffs pretty much since Christ was in high school (though they may not have stuck around). Lou is such a pimp that they’ve named an SBN blog after him In Lou We Trust. Though he may well be the Devil Himself (pun intended, painfully so), Lou has summarily out PLed PL on virtually every conceivable level.
It remains to be seen whether or not his latest coup de grace is in fact his crowning achievement, but he has most certainly earned the benefit of the doubt.
Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October
I’m aware that to NJ faithful, Lou is already a Zeus-like figure, and his track record of Stanley Cups vindicates their faith. Nevertheless, while NJ has been in the playoffs every year after the playoffs, I think (and I’m not recalling very well) they were ousted in the first round in all but one year. This is kind of a gray area I guess: is that considered success? Lou certainly dealt with the salary cap better than PL, but they don’t have much to show for it either. Plus, their tickets arent’ exactly selling like hot potatoes, even with their competitiveness. His rapid disposal of coaches is also going at a pretty alarming rate; I believe it’s one coach for every year after lockout?
At any rate, this deal is dead in its present form. I’ll give him more leeway than, say, the likes of Don Waddell, but I’m not totally convinced everything he touches turn into gold.
I spent more effort eating a pudding than Tyler Arnason skated last year.
I wonder
If Lou will have second thoughts when he sees Kovy getting pushed around the rink by Pronger. Yeah, Kovy is big, but Pronger is well…Pronger.
Shoeshiner made a good point. Kovy was in the NHL’s basement. Other teams wanted to win every game, but something tells me they would play their backup netminder for a few games against the SE division. Maybe rest a few of their big guns.
Now, Kovy’s going to have to learn to play with the “big boys”. Teams gear up differently when they play New Jersey than they would when they play Atlanta.
Who knows, we could see his goals per season start to go down now that he’s facing Lundqvist and Fleury more.
I know my name is spelled "Luxury Yacht" but it's actually pronounced Throatwarbler Mangrove.
Member of the PFJ and the Spanish Inquisition.
No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!!
I think it’s a hard point to make that Kovy benefited from backup goaltenders. If that was the case, you would see a trend of really bad teams like Edmonton having some player score a ton of goals.
Let me play devil’s advocate. On Atlanta, it was all Kovy. He got the best D-pairing all the time. Now the Devils will have two lines that can score. Just like we had SoS’ line and Duchene’s line. Who do you try to stop? On whom do you focus? He might get more time against weaker defensemen in a game.
Jimmy Howard invented the Stanley Cup.
How dare you refute my cracked logic and offer up a logical rebuttal!!!
I’m happy in my own world.
Like a wise man once said, and had t-shirts made, and hats;
I reject you reality and substitute my own.
I know my name is spelled "Luxury Yacht" but it's actually pronounced Throatwarbler Mangrove.
Member of the PFJ and the Spanish Inquisition.
No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!!
by Luxury Yacht on Jul 20, 2010 6:40 PM MDT up reply actions
Have I got a blog for you! OK, I won’t go there.
Your 2010-2011 Colorado Avalanche: Reaching Up to the Cap Floor
by Bob in Boulder on Jul 20, 2010 6:49 PM MDT up reply actions
Point of Order:
Wife has USA network on whilst I’m typing. They just ran an ad for the Denver Outlaws, an outdoor lacrosse league that I believe to be a province of the KSE empire. They 1) advertised on a non-Altitude channel 2) offered an “all you can eat ticket” for $26 and 3) summarily out-marketed the Avalanche in 30 seconds flat for an 8th ranked “sport”.
F U E. Stanley you cheap football lovin’ mutha you!
Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October
Actually I don’t think the Outlaws are owned by KSE. I know the Mammoth are, but not the Outlaws.
The 09/10 Colorado Rockies: Starring Johnny Herrera as THE ANSWER
THIS IS BUFFALO NATION GODZILLA HAS AWAKEN - abayarde
SBNation Denver: Because the Rapids are people too!
Burgundy Wave: My Rapids Blog
No votes for the first option?
Guess BiB forgot to vote on his own poll
The 09/10 Colorado Rockies: Starring Johnny Herrera as THE ANSWER
THIS IS BUFFALO NATION GODZILLA HAS AWAKEN - abayarde
SBNation Denver: Because the Rapids are people too!
Burgundy Wave: My Rapids Blog
I did vote for the second option. Yes, I would be doing fucking cartwheels if they had signed Kovie to a cap friendly deal. But 95M for the first 10 years, even with the cap friendliness, is pretty steep. And I just wish they would f’ing do something!
Your 2010-2011 Colorado Avalanche: Reaching Up to the Cap Floor
by Bob in Boulder on Jul 21, 2010 9:40 AM MDT up reply actions
I didnt like this poll, because it didn’t have a “I would have loved to sign Kovy, but since he was too expensive and didnt want to come here, doing nothing is ok.” Thats def what I would have done. The ‘cap floor is ok’ option is a poor choice for me because I am not ‘trying’ to keep to the floor, as is implied by the wording. But I see little point in bringing in a stop-gap 2 year contract and taking time away from the kids. I’m ok being woefully short on LW for the upcoming year. We get to see if Jones can stay healthy, and if working on a top line could give Stoa some spark.
A shut-down dman would be sweet to have, but I dont think this is the year to pick him up. We have plenty of kids that need ice time, and with Old Man Footer out there, and any number of dmen could see the NHL this upcoming season.
Thanks Joe...
he has played in the worst division in hockey for the majority of his career
A-Ha! My small english brain did not compute the above truth. Big fish in little pond syndrome?
I have to say, that although I would’ve liked Kovy to come here (hey, we have the cap room) I hate the mercenary attitude that him and his agent have. At $8 mil per year, over 5 years, it would have been good, but I am glad that the Avs are not lumbered with this monstrosity of a contract.
My opinion is worth about what you paid for it: Nothing.
Seriously.
Can anybody here REALLY say they wanted to play 105 million for the guy over 10 years or something?
The 09/10 Colorado Rockies: Starring Johnny Herrera as THE ANSWER
THIS IS BUFFALO NATION GODZILLA HAS AWAKEN - abayarde
SBNation Denver: Because the Rapids are people too!
Burgundy Wave: My Rapids Blog
by UZ on Jul 21, 2010 5:48 AM MDT up reply actions
Show a pulse...
At least sign your own young-star RFAs. Stewart and Meuller are flapping in the wind right now.
Running-dog lackey counter-revolutionary malcontent, Not an expert.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
