Today in Colorado Avalanche History
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Aug 12, 2010 5:00 AM MDT
in Today In Colorado Avalanche History
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Happy 25th birthday to our resident BMF, Kyle Quincey. Quincey, of course, is best known for being a former teammate of Jimmy Howard.
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ha, glad you posted it, I was going to but figured I’d be harassed.
Sandie
"We called him Clark Kent because away from the rink, he was just a nerd. Then he'd go into the Colorado dressing room and put on his Avs jersey, and all of a sudden he was Super Joe"- Theo Fleury
by Sandie Gauthier on Aug 12, 2010 6:01 AM MDT reply actions
This has nothing to do with Quincey
But I was listening to an interesting radio show the other day that pointed out that the majority of elite hockey players are born in the half of the year closest to the cutoff for age brackets. This is because they are older at the point in time when selections for elite youth teams are made, and therefore are more likely to be picked and get the type of attention and coaching you need to become a great player.
It’s apparently very very hard for a player born close to the cutoff – ie players born in December when the cutoff is the 1st of January, or players born in June when the cutoff if the 1st July – to make youth represenative teams because they’re essentially a year younger and a year smaller than the guys born 11 months earlier in their representative class.
So there you go. If you didn’t make it as an elite hockey player, and you were born in the 2 or three months leading up to the cutoff in your particular area, the system was rigged! It wasn’t your fault!
Happy birthday, Quincey.
Yep
The Outliers by Malcom Gladwell discusses this. He did a lot of research on different sports/ schooling/ business adventures and whatnot regarding it. It was a very interesting read.
Sandie
"We called him Clark Kent because away from the rink, he was just a nerd. Then he'd go into the Colorado dressing room and put on his Avs jersey, and all of a sudden he was Super Joe"- Theo Fleury
by Sandie Gauthier on Aug 12, 2010 7:11 AM MDT up reply actions
I think Gladwell was the guest on the show, actually
by eltharion_doa on Aug 12, 2010 8:26 AM MDT up reply actions
Just saw this other take on Gladwell
So, Behind the Net took a look at Gladwell’s claim and they argue that he is overstating the importance of when players are born. Basically, the people who have always been oldest might be somewhat more likely play in the NHL, but they tend to be overrepresented among the marginal players. Assuming I am reading the article right.
http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2010/8/3/1603630/inefficiencies-in-irrelevant
yeah
They are overrepresented at juniors, but by the time it filters to the NHL and AHL the misrepresentation is very minimal.
Basically, Junior coaches select the biggest, fastest more developed kids (i.e. ones born in Jan, Feb and March) because their job is to win now, which leads to a discrepancy in juniors. NHL coaches don’t care about right now as much so they look at the potential, not current ability. There’s still a discrepancy but it’s very slight.
If your kid has the talent to make it to the NHL his birth month won’t be a problem. If his peak is that of a marginal AHLer, he’s more likely to reach that peak if he’s born early in the year.
Intelligent opinion does not follow the transitive property
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Aug 12, 2010 9:20 AM MDT up reply actions
one other issue with Gladwell's assumption
It would be interesting to see if people born in January really are that much larger than ones born in, say, October. My memory of playing hockey as a teenager was that size often had little to do with age (if people are within a year or so of each other, not in the senior vs. freshman sense) because teenagers hit growth spurts at different times. I know that data isn’t the plural form of anecdote, but I do wonder about that.
That’s interesting. So Preschooler with his October bday and the new little guy with the December one will be set!
yeah, they are totally hosed
The 8th month is the month for Wolskis
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Aug 12, 2010 7:53 AM MDT up reply actions
Unless, of course, Preschooler@MHH is like Littlekopf #1, who also has an October bday, but takes after his mother’s rugby player father & grandfather and is nearly as broad in the shoulders as he is tall and is at least a head + taller than all of his new kindergarten classmates.
OT, yesterday was his first day of kindergarten. We were driving to school and were telling him how he should try hard, listen to his teacher, etc. He says “Yes, I will go to the net and get my nose dirty at school!” Mrs. Kopf just stared at me. Papa was proud!
Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October
by Hopfenkopf on Aug 12, 2010 12:56 PM MDT up reply actions 3 recs
That’s awesome! Good training Dad!
We’ll have to see about Preschooler. He’s 37 pounds and roughly 35 inches at 3 1/2, so I expect him to be bigger than most. He’s bigger than the 4 1/2 year old next door, so who knows. Mike has said almost since the day he was born that he’ll be a “power forward”…
I think genetics is more important. The Three Little Twiggs are all over the calendar, but they’re always among the tallest in class, on the team, etc. Doesn’t hurt that mom and dad are not shrimpy.
Running-dog lackey counter-revolutionary malcontent, Not an expert.
by Busted Twigg on Aug 12, 2010 2:36 PM MDT up reply actions
Gladwell
Cherry picks his facts a little bit (ok a lot) (in pretty much everything he does, but this case especially). There is a discrepancy, but he takes that discrepancy and then comes to a conclusion that does not follow the interesting data he found. I’m not a big fan of Gladwell for this reason.
The discrepancy in juniors is big, but it’s not nearly as bad as he makes it sound, and it doesn’t translate to the NHL and pros nearly as well as he says it will. (For example It’s not as bad as the discrepancy between Ontario/Quebec kids and Prairie-state kids making the big leagues.Or the discrepancy in monetary class)
It makes sense for junior hockey, because obviously a kid born in January is almost a year older than a kid born in December of the same year, and a year older is a huge deal in adolescents. But when it starts getting to pro leagues the discrepancy goes down.
Behind the net took a look at some of Gladwell’s work on this topic in particular, and I thought it was very interesting and shines some light as to how Gladwell takes some data and then makes grandiose conclusions.
(If you can’t tell, I’m really not a fan of Gladwell’s work, nor the Freakonomics guys. Both of them make far too many leaps in logic trying to sound like they have some sort of special insight that no one else has seen, when in reality they make findings of minor inefficiencies at best. )
Intelligent opinion does not follow the transitive property
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Aug 12, 2010 9:07 AM MDT up reply actions
Both of them make far too many leaps in logic trying to sound like they have some sort of special insight that no one else has seen, when in reality they make findings of minor inefficiencies at best.
Really hate how the R^2 isn’t high enough to support your hypothesis? Ignore it!
Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October
I took classes with Levitt. He’s actually a pretty sharp guy — though I can’t say I’m a big fan of the books either.
by MalachiConstant on Aug 12, 2010 1:12 PM MDT up reply actions
Levitt, from what I can tell, knows what he’s talking about when it comes to economics (or so I’ve read and heard. I’m not an economics guy so he may be full of shit there too, but I don’t think so.)
But when he starts talking about things he’s not familiar with, like climate science or baseball, he’s clearly out of his league.
Intelligent opinion does not follow the transitive property
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Aug 12, 2010 1:56 PM MDT up reply actions
Yeah, I’ll agree with you there and I think that’s why I’m not too fond of his books. They really fouled up that chapter on climate science. Mostly Levitt’s work is good for throwing the proverbial wrench into modern theory’s wheel and less about making solid conclusions. Levitt isn’t really an economist so much as a statistician — an “econometrician” as they say.
by MalachiConstant on Aug 12, 2010 2:03 PM MDT up reply actions
Happy Birthday Kyle
Now get back to your old BMF self and start delivering those hits again!!
Let the new season begin already!!!
He needs to earn the BMF nick again. I thought I was watching the reincarnation of Skoula later in the season with Quincey.
Your 2010-2011 Colorado Avalanche: Reaching Up to the Cap Floor
Oh, and happy birthday Kyle!
Your 2010-2011 Colorado Avalanche: Reaching Up to the Cap Floor
by Bob in Boulder on Aug 12, 2010 9:41 AM MDT up reply actions
That too. But I was talking about his “physicality” later in the year. One of the funniest things I’ve heard at the Can. “Come on Skoula, at least hit him with your purse.”
Your 2010-2011 Colorado Avalanche: Reaching Up to the Cap Floor
by Bob in Boulder on Aug 12, 2010 10:02 AM MDT up reply actions
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