Half-full, Half-empty, Half-Open Thread
by Brett Shumway on Aug 17, 2010 7:00 AM MDT
in Avalanche Weekly
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PrintIn exactly one month from today (assuming the front office makes no further budget cuts) the Avalanche will open training camp! Praise and hallelujah! I can't take much more of this schizophrenic off-season. It seems like one week I'm riding high because the future is so bright and sunny, then the next week I want to cut myself. Bless Mile High Hockey for the community of brothers, sisters and red-headed step siblings (you know who you are), because it's through you, my fellow fans, that I know I'm not the only one suffering through summer's emotional roller coaster of epic boredom. Now, on to the Avalanche.
This week, I'm back to feeling optimistic. And here's why: People say the Avs will fall off and can't repeat their "over-performance" from last season, but I say why not? This is a jumping off point for today's half-open thread.
The Haters cry: Those upstart young guns (specifically Yip & Jones) will not keep up their high shooting percentages.
Mr. Optimism retorts: Who cares. I'd rather have a healthy Jones & Yip shooting at human numbers for full season, than guys who put up Deity-like shooting percentages for a handful of games before being injured. So what if they don't hit at the same clip? In a full season, they both will easily eclipse the 20 goal mark - something only 4 players in uniprons/bleuberries did last season.
The Naysayers nag: But the Avs were simply over-performing, and the rookies will inevitably hit a wall with the sophomore slump.
Those with eyes reply: Have you seen Matt Duchene? The kid simply can not have a sophomore slump. It's just not possible. Science. And who is it that over performed so grotesquely? Was it Galiardi? O'Reilly? No and no. Maybe Stewart, but this past season was supposed to be HIS sophomore slump, so there goes that theory. What about Craig Anderson? Okay, maybe Anderson was more than anyone anticipated, but it's not like he posted Jimmy Howard numbers (snicker). He'll start less games this go-round, and should be able to post a better GAA and save percentage if more rested. His only stats I see taking a hit are starts and maybe shut outs - nothing to cause concern. Andy is not David Aebischer.
The unbelievers bellow: The Avs front office doesn't care about the team, all they care about is money. They made no significant free agent signings. They suck.
The wise kindly counter: Pretty much. Yes, it is blatantly obvious that the front office and ownership are tight wads, but they are also business men with a mind towards the future. The Avalanche have the most cap room in the NHL. That is a good thing, and it will eventually pay off. Yes, the 2010-2011 edition of the Avalanche will barely clear the cap floor, but that thrifty monetary attitude will enable them to re-sign some of the 12 free agents and restricted free agents they are scheduled to have about 10 months from now (and that doesn't include all the free agent minor leaguers). Currently only 8 full-time Avs are signed past next season. Money will be spent next summer when we'll all have a better idea of what these youngsters are all about.
The whiners whimper : Corsi!
Everyone else yawns.
So is your glass half-full or half-empty? Today Mr. Coffey's mug is half full. But tomorrow.....
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well well well
If we don’t make the playoffs its because we traded Wolski. He carried our team last year. My glass is only half full because The baron was the other half…cant even get drunk off of half a glass of avahol :(
"I cannot really hear what Jeremy says because I've got my two Stanley Cup rings plugging my ear."-Patrick Roy
My glass is half-full this morning because I had fantastic donuts for breakfast!
That and my hormones are going crazy this morning. Check back in a couple of hours and I’ll probably hate everything to do with hockey. :-)
Donuts? What kind may I ask?
I had some pizza that was brought in for the morning show. Nothing like a giant slice of deep dish, instead of oatmeal, or cereal
Help help! I'm being repressed!
Go Avalanche.
The OT: All that AND a bag of meat.
by frightened inmate #2 on Aug 17, 2010 8:07 AM MDT reply actions
Mine’s filled with wine, doesn’t really matter if it’s good or bad, I’m along for the ride.
Sandie
"We called him Clark Kent because away from the rink, he was just a nerd. Then he'd go into the Colorado dressing room and put on his Avs jersey, and all of a sudden he was Super Joe"- Theo Fleury
by Sandie Gauthier on Aug 17, 2010 8:14 AM MDT reply actions
Yip
You mention Yip’s shooting percentage and question whether he can maintain it. So, it being August and things are slow, I did research on the numbers which you’ll find below. My takeaway is that Yip was above his career percentage last year, but not by much. His Junior year at BU was the biggest anomaly, otherwise he’s over 15% for his career! The numbers indicate the kid has a nose for the net, and that what we saw may be what we get.
Games Goals Shots % Team
39 9 61 14.8 BU 05-06
18 5 25 20.0 BU 06-07
37 11 98 11.2 BU 07-08
45 20 131 15.3 BU 08-09
82 45 315 14.3 BU Total
6 2 12 16.7 LEM
32 11 65 16.9 AVS
38 13 77 16.9 PRO
120 58 392 14.8 Combined Career
This would suggest that he’s either a dead-eye sniper, or very selective in the shots he takes. His style of game includes lots of net crashing and rebounds. I wonder how his shots split between first shots and rebounds. Without any data (not that it’s stopped me before) I would assume that rebounds tend to score at a higher percentage since the puck is usually in a quality scoring area and the goalie may be scrambling for position.
Running-dog lackey counter-revolutionary malcontent, Not an expert.
by Busted Twigg on Aug 17, 2010 8:54 AM MDT up reply actions
rebounds tend to score at a higher percentage
In more ways then one…so I’m told
MHH: The Burgundy Army is on the March!
I'm The Canary - but I'm not cute nor cuddly, and I don't sing.
by Americanario on Aug 17, 2010 1:22 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
BWAHAHAHAHAHA
Sandie
"We called him Clark Kent because away from the rink, he was just a nerd. Then he'd go into the Colorado dressing room and put on his Avs jersey, and all of a sudden he was Super Joe"- Theo Fleury
by Sandie Gauthier on Aug 17, 2010 1:36 PM MDT up reply actions
lol
nicely done
I just like the fights.
by Cheryl Bradley on Aug 17, 2010 1:55 PM MDT up reply actions
and they tend to not be pretty.
Son, when you participate in sporting events - it's not whether you win or lose, it's how drunk you get.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Aug 17, 2010 4:40 PM MDT up reply actions
Not sure pour me another
Well first off when the glass gets half empty it needs to be refilled. So the AVs haven’t done much and it would have been nice to see something happen in the Forward department but hey we had one hell of a ride last year with a bunch of young guns I would like to see them stick together past 1 year. I would like Stewy and Bueller to get resigned and beyond that I want management to learn how to Market the Team I mean come on already “It’s all about the A” is all you can come up with?? Or is just the A all you are will to spend??
Let the new season begin already!!!
THN says AVs will finish 9th in West
“The young Avs didn’t make any franchise-altering moves, but lost shot-block specialist Brett Clark to free agency. Colorado is relying on the same players it did last year when the team surprised everyone with a playoff appearance: Matt Duchene, THN cover boy Chris Stewart, T.J. Galiardi, Peter Mueller and more brought this team along last year and will be counted on to do the same. Craig Anderson had a terrific 2009-10, but in this volatile goalie age can he live up to expectations he didn’t have a year ago? After we saw another young team – the St. Louis Blues – burst onto the playoff scene only to fall back a little the year after, we’re anticipating much of the same from the Avalanche.”
Let the new season begin already!!!
My emotional reaction agrees with you, but logically I think it’s about right. Fighting for a playoff spot again. I think they might make it, tho, and end up 8th.
I just like the fights.
by Cheryl Bradley on Aug 17, 2010 9:56 AM MDT up reply actions
I think injuries worry me the most. If healthy, I like our lineup. Hell, improving our ability to hold 3rd period leads should net us 10 more points. But if we have to rely on Stoa, Cohen, Mercier or Olver to play top-6 minutes to get us to the playoffs, we could be in trouble. Not to mention, our entire reserve defense corps has zero NHL experience.
"Half the game is mental; the other half is being mental." -- Jim McKenny
our entire reserve defense corps has zero NHL experience.
Not necessarily a damning proposition. Our team last year had limited NHL exposure too, and hardly any playoff experience. Granted that I wouldn’t bank on any of the guys you mentioned to impress me, but I didn’t expect Radar to stay with the team either. Or expect Gally to be able to even remotely keep up with the top line, much less do well. Or have Yip be able to step up his game and keep pace.
That won’t happen every year, for sure, but I based on what I have seen I believe in the Av’s scouting corps to do right by us. I’ll go ahead and believe.
Thanks Joe...
But if we have to rely on Stoa, Cohen, Mercier or Olver to play top-6 minutes to get us to the playoffs, wecouldwill be in trouble, because it will mean that our entire 3rd line of Gali, Radar & Yip are also out hurt in addition to the hurt guys from the top 6, so we’re gonna be toast.
Fixed.
That 3rd line just makes me giddy!
Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October
You know, I bet that third line might be why there wasn’t a move for a UFA left winger. If Jones can move over to LW and stay healthy, they may be thinking to put him on the top line and have O’Reilly centering Yip and Gali on the third. Or swap Gali and Jones. Either way, there wouldn’t be room for a UFA to come in unless they planned to drop Yip to the 4th line and I doubt they wanted to do that. Yips not a 4th line grinder; I could see them thinking that would be a waste of his talent to put him there.
I just like the fights.
by Cheryl Bradley on Aug 17, 2010 2:02 PM MDT up reply actions
Bingo.
Dr. Jones – SoS – Stewie
Ferris – Dutchy – Duke
Gali – Radar – Yip
Highlander – Winnik – Porter
Stoa
Mercier
Depth is a problem for sure, but if that lineup stays healthy, look the hell out!
Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October
I hear Cleveland isn’t as bad as LeBron makes it out to be.
Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October
I’m not all that impressed with Mercier but maybe that’s because I haven’t seen enough of him.
(I expect something good out of ya guys with that leave…)
I just like the fights.
by Cheryl Bradley on Aug 17, 2010 3:30 PM MDT up reply actions
I expect something good out of ya guys with that leave…
That’s what Eve said
Intelligent opinion does not follow the transitive property
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Aug 17, 2010 3:48 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don’t disagree, but Mercier >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Koci.
Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October
{insert player name here} is better than koci. Actually, let’s name all the players that will play in at least 10 games that are worse than koci. Kinda a stumper eh?
Son, when you participate in sporting events - it's not whether you win or lose, it's how drunk you get.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Aug 17, 2010 9:13 PM MDT up reply actions
Actually, let’s name all the players that will play in at least 10gamesat the NCAA/CHL/ECHL level or above that are worse than koci. Kinda a stumper eh?
Fixed.
Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October
Damn, dude, tell us how you really feel about the guy
I just like the fights.
by Cheryl Bradley on Aug 17, 2010 9:37 PM MDT up reply actions
Could probably add in a few beer-league teams as well.
Dear Colorado Avalanche: Thank you for the excitement, see you in October.
Can we stop calling Yip and Jones Young Guns? They are 25 and 26 respectively. Sure, they’re young compared to me, but they’re still older than Ovechkin, and that guy’s seemingly been around forever.
I’m just hoping for two-thirds the points-per-game rate but five times more games played out of these two next season.
BTW, as the season draws closer, will we be doing an official Avs prediction thread that we can reference through the season? And by reference, I mean point back to and laugh.
"Half the game is mental; the other half is being mental." -- Jim McKenny
I want to make predictions! But we might want to hang out for a while and do it after training camp. Or have two, one with our impressions soon-ish and one right before the season starts.
Thanks Joe...
Call me fascist, but I’m hoping for a thread that you can only post once in, has minimal replies and is almost set in stone once the season starts. I don’t want anyone to post early and then 40 inches down repost with some addendums and caveats and copouts. If we announce it’s coming ahead of time, that will give people time to formulate a solid post instead of trying to wing it while at work.
Perhaps a common element required of all posts could be 1) Avs’ final record 2) Playoff seed 3) Team leader in goals 4) Team leader in points 5) Team MVP 6) Longshot transactions 7) Full rundown of your thoughts on the 2010-11 Avs.
I’m against lots of replies as well because, hey, it’s predictions, based fully on opinion and chance. We don’t need to get into pissing matches over predictions we don’t agree with … at least until November.
"Half the game is mental; the other half is being mental." -- Jim McKenny
I think the Young Guns moniker was more about their rookie/2nd year status than just their age. They got the nickname as a group last year and it’s a reference from then, so I suspect the whole thing will die as the season starts this year. Have faith, my son!
I just like the fights.
by Cheryl Bradley on Aug 17, 2010 11:31 AM MDT up reply actions
New guns? Youngish guns? Way too young to be Red Wings guns?
Your 2010-2011 Colorado Avalanche: Reaching Up to the Cap Floor
by Bob in Boulder on Aug 17, 2010 11:43 AM MDT up reply actions
Way too young to be Red Wings guns?
we’re still firing live rounds to their blanks?
Is it October yet?!
lol
I’ve missed Jibblekopfed comments! Is it October yet?
Don't eat the snow from your skates. - Sage advice from a 7 year old.
We'll be lucky to see 9th
As this team stands right now, it won’t make the playoffs. Too shallow. People hated Clark, Tucker, Svats, and sometimes Durno, but they gave us depth when players got hurt. Our depth now is terrible.
Anderson’s not gonna play as well as he did last season, we lost some team toughness, attendance will be worse… Right now, I’d be surprised if we make it as high as 9th. I think the season will start bad and only get worse.
You'll see all your favorite soccer stars. Like Adiaga! Adiaga two! Badiaga! Aruglia! And Pizzoza!
by Dan Winkler on Aug 17, 2010 1:47 PM MDT reply actions
I think I actually agree with Dan to a point. The roster looks good as it stands, but if you take out 3 players with injuries, 1 of which is long term, the team looks as deep as a puddle.
That’s why I have been craving a couple of FA depth signings. TBH, I would have been in favour of Tucker coming back for 1 – 1.5mil per year. D – not so worried, as Gaunce, Cohen & Capt. Kirk waiting in the wings, but forwards?
The Avs had the most shots against in the league last season and I don’t see management doing anything to address that. Oh, in fact, I don’t see management doing anything. Period.
My opinion is worth about what you paid for it: Nothing.
That’s my feeling too. If we were playing one of the older console NHL games where nobody got hurt and everybody played to their potential, then I wouldn’t be worried. However, with the string of injuries this team has endured the last three seasons (Snowblower, really?) we need a serious upgrade in the depth department on the forward side of the coin. I think the organ-i-zation is content to use the AHL d-corp for depth on the blueline and we’ve got replacement level goalies in the A, but not really among the forwards.
If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!
Dude needs goddamn refill!
Dear Colorado Avalanche: Thank you for the excitement, see you in October.
Pour me another!
Hockey can’t come soon enough. The only thing I have to debate is politics and that’s apparently a fight without rules. I’d rather argue hockey.
Don't eat the snow from your skates. - Sage advice from a 7 year old.
So I sat at work all day struggling to find enough stories to get through my newscasts from 4 AM – Noon. I barely had enough. Since I left I have gotten two press releases, one about an arrest in a Monday bank robbery, and a shooting of a guy who tried to chase a guy that robbed his house. Now the Blagojevich jury reaches a verdict. 2 major local stories and a huge state story. Go figure…
Help help! I'm being repressed!
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