Another Wolski Myth Goes Down
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Aug 2, 2010 6:00 AM MDT
in Avalanche News & Notes
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PrintThis wasn't going to be about Wojtek Wolski. Honest. Thanks to hockey-reference.com, I put together some numbers on PK effectiveness - how many PPG were scored when a player was on the ice per 60 minutes of PK TOI. I was happily putting together the list below and had what was no doubt highly intellectual insight on the Highlander. I was going to rave about how surprised I was that he was #4 in PK ice time among forwards, and how his numbers were a huge improvement over his awful previous season (11 PPG in 63.2 PK TOI, or 10.34 PPG/60). And we all would have scratched our heads - or chuckled, or commented without reading, or however it is that you like to enjoy MHH - and then moved on with our dreary old work days.
| Rk | Player | PPGA | PKTOI | PPGA/60 |
| D | John-Michael Liles | 1 | 18.6 | 3.22 |
| D | Kyle Cumiskey | 9 | 96.3 | 5.61 |
| D | Scott Hannan | 28 | 265.5 | 6.33 |
| D | Brett Clark | 15 | 123.9 | 7.26 |
| D | Ryan Wilson | 9 | 71.5 | 7.56 |
| D | Kyle Quincey | 28 | 214.2 | 7.84 |
| D | Adam Foote | 27 | 179.9 | 9.01 |
| D | Ruslan Salei | 5 | 17.5 | 17.13 |
| F | Matt Duchene | 1 | 34.5 | 1.74 |
| F | Wojtek Wolski | 3 | 52.7 | 3.42 |
| F | Milan Hejduk | 2 | 26.8 | 4.48 |
| F | Cody McLeod | 9 | 100.6 | 5.37 |
| F | David Jones | 5 | 48.9 | 6.14 |
| F | T.J. Galiardi | 24 | 211.4 | 6.81 |
| F | Matt Hendricks | 8 | 68.6 | 7.00 |
| F | Stephane Yelle | 3 | 22.9 | 7.85 |
| F | Paul Stastny | 18 | 131.3 | 8.23 |
| F | Kevin Porter | 3 | 19.2 | 9.36 |
| F | Ryan O'Reilly | 38 | 235.9 | 9.66 |
And then I saw those damn Wolski numbers. Gee, thought I, those are pretty good numbers, even if this statistical study is essentially flawed in that it doesn't take into account factors like fatigue or strength of opponent. Besides, surely this was as much an aberration as McLeod's season was, right? So, I looked up the 2008-2009 numbers, and lo and behold, Wolski put up even better PK numbers with even more ice time (8 PPGA, 152.4 PKTOI, 3.15 PPGA/60).
That got me thinking - something that is usually dangerous and often painful. Sure, any bum can focus on defense for a couple of shorthanded shifts a game...clearly, Wolski's PK stats are a fluke. Since I'd already started on this little tangent, I might as well see it through. So, I took all the players on the Avs, stripped out their PK performance, and ran the numbers again (in other words, EVGA + SHGA / EVTOI + PPTOI).
Where does Wolski wrank? Wright at the top (sorry, I think my dubya key is sticking). Yep, Wolski is right up there, 4th among forwards, ahead of "defensive-minded" forwards like Radar O'Reilly, Milan Hejduk and Paul Stastny. Wow.
| Player | Pos | TOI | TGA | PPGA | Non-PKTOI | Non-PPGA | Non-PPGA/60 | |
| Ryan Wilson | D | 993 | 35 | 9 | 922 | 26 | 1.69 | |
| Brett Clark | D | 1225 | 50 | 15 | 1101 | 35 | 1.91 | |
| Kyle Quincey | D | 1865 | 86 | 28 | 1651 | 58 | 2.11 | |
| John-Michael Liles | D | 1089 | 41 | 1 | 1070 | 40 | 2.24 | |
| Scott Hannan | D | 1776 | 87 | 28 | 1511 | 59 | 2.34 | |
| Adam Foote | D | 1297 | 72 | 27 | 1117 | 45 | 2.42 | |
| Kyle Cumiskey | D | 1208 | 55 | 9 | 1112 | 46 | 2.48 | |
| Ruslan Salei | D | 263 | 16 | 5 | 246 | 11 | 2.69 | |
| Chris Durno | F | 306 | 7 | 0 | 304 | 7 | 1.38 | |
| Darcy Tucker | F | 860 | 23 | 0 | 858 | 23 | 1.61 | |
| Brandon Yip | F | 470 | 15 | 1 | 468 | 14 | 1.79 | |
| Wojtek Wolski | F | 1175 | 39 | 3 | 1122 | 36 | 1.92 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly | F | 1358 | 75 | 38 | 1122 | 37 | 1.98 | |
| Peter Mueller | F | 268 | 9 | 0 | 268 | 9 | 2.02 | |
| Milan Hejduk | F | 1065 | 38 | 2 | 1038 | 36 | 2.08 | |
| Matt Duchene | F | 1436 | 52 | 1 | 1402 | 51 | 2.18 | |
| Ryan Stoa | F | 133 | 5 | 0 | 133 | 5 | 2.26 | |
| Matt Hendricks | F | 519 | 25 | 8 | 450 | 17 | 2.26 | |
| David Koci | F | 131 | 5 | 0 | 131 | 5 | 2.29 | |
| Marek Svatos | F | 616 | 24 | 0 | 616 | 24 | 2.34 | |
| T.J. Galiardi | F | 1273 | 67 | 24 | 1062 | 43 | 2.43 | |
| Paul Stastny | F | 1733 | 87 | 18 | 1602 | 69 | 2.58 | |
| Cody McLeod | F | 957 | 49 | 9 | 856 | 40 | 2.80 | |
| Chris Stewart | F | 1286 | 62 | 0 | 1283 | 62 | 2.90 | |
| Kevin Porter | F | 211 | 13 | 3 | 192 | 10 | 3.13 | |
| David Jones | F | 412 | 24 | 5 | 363 | 19 | 3.14 | |
| Stephane Yelle | F | 110 | 8 | 3 | 87 | 5 | 3.44 |
Now, why is Darcy Tucker #2 on this list, you ask? Well, you have to keep in mind who these guys are playing against. In the case of Tucker and Chris Durno, these guys are usually out there against the other team's 4th line. That's still an impressive performance, but it's why you can't totally compare apples to apples here (ditto for Brett Clark and Ryan Wilson, but Ruslan Salei was awful by any measure). Wolski wasn't playing against the 4th lines, though. He was playing against the same talent that Stastny, Duchene and Hejduk were playing against...and he was on the ice for less goals than any of them.
Does this mean he needs to get nominated for a Selke Award? Probably not. But for the second straight week I've found numbers that go against the common perception of the Baron. Last week, we professed that the inconsistent Wolski was probably more consistent than we thought, and now we dig up evidence that the defensively challenged forward may be a lot better than we gave him credit for there too. Again, it wasn't my intention to do this at all, but I couldn't help it when I saw those numbers. I'm not sure if there are any other Wolski myths left to tackle...but if there are, I may just stumble across them sooner or later.
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a terrible play on words
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Aug 2, 2010 7:39 AM MDT up reply actions
DD, I thought you were on my “Wolski is great defensively” bandwagon since In the Cheap Seats.
Wolski has a very good talent for clearing the zone. Going back to center and playing under Tippet I think his offensive numbers might slip but he’s going to fit right in as a defensive-minded center first and foremost.
I have been – I think he’s very good defensively. I just have read a lot of comments lately that have chided him for that, which was in my head when I ran those numbers.
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Aug 2, 2010 7:34 AM MDT up reply actions
Echoing some thoughts here, I thought Wolski’s defensive game improved leaps and bounds the last couple of years. I think Wojtek was victom of a fan/coach expectations and expected salary relative to his total performance on ice. Very talented but I it seems he lacked intangibles. Definitely a nominee for top enigma players to be on the Avalanche.
Never trust the lunch lady.
by Hardshell_Taco_del_Lowayne on Aug 2, 2010 9:34 AM MDT reply actions
hmmm, I wonder how I can chart intangibles…
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Aug 2, 2010 9:39 AM MDT up reply actions
First thought: “well, you’d have to use some sort of Instrumental Variable like jersey sales, or…”
Second thought: "OH, maybe he’s being sarcastic and joking?… heh, that’s pretty funny… * chuckle * "
by MalachiConstant on Aug 2, 2010 9:52 AM MDT up reply actions
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Never trust the lunch lady.
by Hardshell_Taco_del_Lowayne on Aug 2, 2010 10:54 AM MDT up reply actions
if he had Joe Sakic’s or heck even Claude Lemieux’s drive he’d be one of the best players in the league.
Son, when you participate in sporting events - it's not whether you win or lose, it's how drunk you get.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Aug 2, 2010 10:17 AM MDT reply actions
Tim Tebow!
What's the difference between a duck?
Never ever ever ever ever ever ever or ever use both Joe Sakic and Tim Tebow as a comparison. NEVER
Seriously, never.
by MalachiConstant on Aug 2, 2010 10:41 AM MDT up reply actions
Yeah, one is from Canada!
Never trust the lunch lady.
by Hardshell_Taco_del_Lowayne on Aug 2, 2010 10:56 AM MDT up reply actions
Wolski Myth?
It’s been said that Wolski gave some kid Pop Rocks and soda and made him explode.
"Half the game is mental; the other half is being mental." -- Jim McKenny
So does this make DDC Jaimie, Adam, or one of the trio of Tori, Kari and Grant? The Wolski Mythbuster
Help help! I'm being repressed!
David would look pretty good in a black beret…
Intelligent opinion does not follow the transitive property
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Aug 2, 2010 1:49 PM MDT up reply actions
He needs a nice walrus mustache though. Would that become him? And I spelled Jamie wrong. Oops
Help help! I'm being repressed!
Fixed
The mustache could be bigger though.
by MalachiConstant on Aug 2, 2010 2:26 PM MDT up reply actions 4 recs
Plausible.
"Half the game is mental; the other half is being mental." -- Jim McKenny
by Dixomatic on Aug 2, 2010 2:02 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Looks like the Avs traded Wolski for Mueller and Porter last season. Hmh. Coulda sworn he was still an Av, with the coverage he gets here.
Really? Analyzing a trade and how it affects the team, including the worth of said players, is not relevant anymore? It’s not like we’re debating the worth of Rucinsky here. We also spent a good deal of time discussing Kovy and all related aspects of that whole deal, yet he was never a player here. The possibility gave fans of the team something to talk about, which is what this site is for. In addition, it’s the off season, and the dog days of the off season at that- what the hell do you expect?
Coulda sworn he was still an Av, with the coverage he gets here.
PS if you READ the coverage the point of the article becomes intuitively obvious to even the most casual of dullards
MHH- A drinking site with a hockey problem
Detroit Sucks
And it’s August 2nd and the Avs biggest move of the summer has been trading a 4th rounder for Dan Winnick. Or re-signing 2 RFAs (Yip and Quincey) who were almost guaranteed to get re-signed.
Intelligent opinion does not follow the transitive property
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Aug 2, 2010 2:32 PM MDT up reply actions
Wow. Personal attacks. Brilliant.
Hey, post what you want. But the constant pining for Wolski is just silly. He’s gone, it was a great trade for us, and that’s that. I’m not the only one sick of hearing about him, but if it tickles your pickle to yak about him, by all means.
you know, I wasn’t bullshitting about how this came about. it really was an accident. but it does tickle my yak, now that i think about it
Assistant *to* the Managing Editor, Mile High Hockey
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Aug 2, 2010 3:03 PM MDT up reply actions
Wow. Personal attacks. Brilliant.
Just answering your insulting sarcasm with some of my own. And no, it’s not “that’s that”. Sports fans discuss this kind of stuff all the time, ad nauseum. If you don’t know that, or can’t see it, well, sorry, because I can’t help you. I don’t think anyone can say we “won” that trade yet. I think we would have to wait at least another year before anyone can say that with any kind of statistically significant back up. At this point there are too many unknowns, both with Wolski’s production v Muellers, health concerns, what Porter will do, etc.
I disagree that there is any “pining” for Wolski. Some liked the trade, some didn’t, and some are on the fence about it (me included). I ask again, what the hell do you expect from a hockey site in the middle of summer? Also, again, how is this discussion not relevant when it includes new numbers discussing a trade that is fairly recent in Avs history? Is is only because it presents solid evidence that may not jibe with your own expert opinion? Are you sick of hearing/ reading potential proof that you could be wrong?
I don’t know how long you’ve been reading this site, but if you really want to see what a dead horse looks like when it’s getting beat upon around here, go back in the archives a little ways and see some of the discussion on Budaj. This article or two on Wolski just doesn’t even compare.
MHH- A drinking site with a hockey problem
Detroit Sucks
Also, again, how is this discussion not relevant when it includes new numbers discussing a trade that is fairly recent in Avs history? Is is only because it presents solid evidence that may not jibe with your own expert opinion? Are you sick of hearing/ reading potential proof that you could be wrong?
Yeah, it’s either that I’m so deathly afraid of being wrong that I would attempt to sway people from discussing Wolski for fear that someone might post some convoluted, hastily-formulated, poorly-extrapolated stat that might convince someone that Wolski is Wayne Gretzky 2.0 and that Peter Mueller is dog shit…or that I just think it’s fucking stupid to keep going on and on about a guy who doesn’t play for us anymore.
I mean, if you want, I could write up a detailed statistical analysis of Jeff Shantz vs. Jeff Odgers, but I really don’t think that would be interesting or relevant.
I mean, if you want, I could write up a detailed statistical analysis of Jeff Shantz vs. Jeff Odgers, but I really don’t think that would be interesting or relevant.
No, it wouldn’t be. That was a long time ago. Wolski was very recent, and his performance stats are valid as they can be compared to the guy he was traded for, and who is still playing for the Avs. This is a relevant topic. Shantz vs Odgers is not, but as this is an Avs blog, if someone wanted to debate that, I wouldn’t pipe up in scorn for them.
someone might post some convoluted, hastily-formulated, poorly-extrapolated stat that might convince someone that Wolski is Wayne Gretzky 2.0 and that Peter Mueller is dog shit
Disagree. I found it interesting stuff to read on a slow news day, and I’m not a stats guy. I would call it some interesting info in re to some people’s disparaging comments on Wolski’s play, basically saying, “he’s not as bad as we all thought”. Good stuff to have when you are jonesing for any hockey talk. And far more interesting and relevant than a post that has a link to info we’ve all seen before and that many people think is BS to begin with.
Seriously, you bag on a stats post that makes a good point about Wolski (and also has some other very good and interesting info regarding current Avs players) but then post up yet another old tired Kovy rant? how is it that you can be all tired of Wolski and make sarcastic comments in a thread, but then do basically the same thing about someone else who has never even played for the Avs?
MHH- A drinking site with a hockey problem
Detroit Sucks
I’m gonna make you boys sit in the corner until you both can play nice!
Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October
I’m sorry, I only listen when a) there’s a ban hammer involved, b) there’s an actual evidence related argument involved. :)
MHH- A drinking site with a hockey problem
Hockeytown was a marketing invention to draw fans to a team that had less gate than the atlanta thrashers. Really Detroit, the only thing I'm jealous about is your marketing dept. When do they go UFA?
or c) there isn’t just a running the red light level of flagrant hipocrasy involved.
MHH- A drinking site with a hockey problem
Hockeytown was a marketing invention to draw fans to a team that had less gate than the atlanta thrashers. Really Detroit, the only thing I'm jealous about is your marketing dept. When do they go UFA?
Or I can keep it simple....
or that I just think it’s fucking stupid to keep going on and on about a guy who doesn’t play for us
anymore.like, ever.
MHH- A drinking site with a hockey problem
Detroit Sucks
I think you're overreacting
I actually got a lot out of that stat chart that clearly took time to formulate. I have always held Hannan in high regard; those numbers made me reconsider my position. Other numbers solidified my position on players (like O’Reilly). I also am very interested in continuing to look at the Wolski – Mueller comparison to see how we fared in that trade. I was a big supporter of it. This makes me think that maybe I was hasty in that belief.
This summer has been filled with Kovy BS ad nauseam (sp?). It’s also been filled with complaints about the contracts (or lack thereof) and how no UFAs have been signed. I, for one, welcome the diversion. DDC said he inadvertently came to these realizations; why shouldn’t he share it?
I just like the fights.
by Cheryl Bradley on Aug 2, 2010 10:10 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Maybe part of why people were supportive of the trade is because of Wolski’s history of ending up in the doghouse with the coaches. Remember, he was benched by Sacco several times for not performing up to his potential.
We can speculate forward looking at how Wolski plays with Phoenix. But remember, sometimes a player becomes a completely different player with a different team, system, coaching, etc. (which is what we are all hoping happens with Mueller).
It seems to me Wolski had more than his fair share of chances with the Avs to live up to the player they expected him to be. For whatever reason, it didn’t happen. As long as Mueller and Porter do well, I will feel the trade was a good one.
Don’t forget Wolski was also going to be due some large $$ which I don’t think Avs management felt he was worth.
All that rambling aside, my point is that I think given the circumstances happening when the trade occurred, it isn’t surprising you were supportive of the trade.
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IIRC he didn’t get all that much money from Phoenix. Looks like $1mil/ year cap hit more than his colorado contract, with a 500k raise this year and a 400k raise next. Makes me wonder.
MHH- A drinking site with a hockey problem
Hockeytown was a marketing invention to draw fans to a team that had less gate than the atlanta thrashers. Really Detroit, the only thing I'm jealous about is your marketing dept. When do they go UFA?
For whatever reason, it didn’t happen
This is my point. I’ve seen some stats recently, this post as well as others, that put into question my belief that he didn’t live up to expectations. I’m just doubting my own perceptions. I still think the trade was a good idea. It infused energy into the team and brought something to the PP that was missing. I’m just thinking I was too hard on the guy is all.
I just like the fights.
by Cheryl Bradley on Aug 3, 2010 12:21 PM MDT up reply actions
I like it when you’re around.
You are just contrary enough to produce HI-lariousness when others disagree without being so agressive as to bring down the hammer à la hockeyexpert (RIP). You’ve also seem to be better informed.
The Mile High Hockey Wojtek Wolski Fan Blog with Colorado Avalanche Stuff, the Wolski’s breakfast article, and your new fanpost title, all three made my day.
Thanks
But the constant pining for Wolski is just silly.
Wait… what? who has pined for having Wolski back… I mean at all. There’s been 2 posts on him: 1 said he’s inconsistent and the other said he’s better defensively than people gave him credit for. And for the life of me I can’t find one comment on either post that said the Avs shouldn’t have done the trade.
And there was a pole on the other one where they who would score more points, Mueller or Wolski and it was 59/30. Almost every Wolski vote was qualified with “He’ll be on a line with Doan and 1st line PP. Mueller will likely be used at the point at PP… etc.”
Besides “Wolskiing” around has become a nickname for floating around here, even by those of us who think Wolski was better than people gave him credit for.
Bottom line: there’s been no pining for him at all.
Intelligent opinion does not follow the transitive property
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Aug 2, 2010 3:17 PM MDT up reply actions
And there was a pole
I see what you did there. ;-)
I just like the fights.
by Cheryl Bradley on Aug 2, 2010 3:26 PM MDT up reply actions
You would pick that phrase out of his whole post. ;-)
Good to have you back Beachie…
MHH: The Burgundy Army is on the March!
I'm The Canary - but I'm not cute nor cuddly, and I don't sing.
and you would point it out!
Thanks..we shall.enjoy it while it lasts. I’ll prob go MIA for the most part at the end of the when internet access is limited again.
I just like the fights.
by Cheryl Bradley on Aug 2, 2010 3:43 PM MDT up reply actions
…end of the week when…
I just like the fights.
by Cheryl Bradley on Aug 2, 2010 3:44 PM MDT up reply actions
lol.
Cuz we know what you’ll be doing at the end of the week ;-)
"That F******* sandwich had it coming!" -Mike@MHH
plead the fifth.
I just like the fights.
by Cheryl Bradley on Aug 3, 2010 12:22 PM MDT up reply actions
You shouldn't stop there
that whole sentence fragment’s a disaster
Intelligent opinion does not follow the transitive property
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Aug 2, 2010 3:46 PM MDT up reply actions
Not grammar Nazi-ing you, sweety… Wolski is from Poland. Polish = Poles….I’m sorry, it didn’t translate well, but I thought it woulda been SO cool if it was intentional so I wanted to make a winky about it.
I just like the fights.
by Cheryl Bradley on Aug 2, 2010 3:54 PM MDT up reply actions
Yeah
I actually couldn’t remember how to spell poll for a moment, so just went with Pole and the pun…
Intelligent opinion does not follow the transitive property
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Aug 2, 2010 4:29 PM MDT up reply actions
So it WAS intentional! Rec’d all over the place!
I just like the fights.
by Cheryl Bradley on Aug 2, 2010 4:47 PM MDT up reply actions
And according to a shirt I saw on a lady at the gas station today…so do “boys”
Help help! I'm being repressed!
Unfair!
If you can’t trust this face, whom/what can you trust?
Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October
How about the “Wolski was a god damn retard when he had the puck on his stick” myth?
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I miss Darcy Tucker.
Son, when you participate in sporting events - it's not whether you win or lose, it's how drunk you get.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Aug 3, 2010 11:56 AM MDT reply actions
Why do you hate the Avs?
I just like the fights.
by Cheryl Bradley on Aug 3, 2010 12:23 PM MDT up reply actions
I miss Darcy Tucker too
but my aim is off.
Intelligent opinion does not follow the transitive property
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Aug 3, 2010 12:43 PM MDT up reply actions
fix the sight.
Son, when you participate in sporting events - it's not whether you win or lose, it's how drunk you get.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Aug 3, 2010 12:46 PM MDT up reply actions
I miss Patrice Brisebois.
Son, when you participate in sporting events - it's not whether you win or lose, it's how drunk you get.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Aug 3, 2010 12:47 PM MDT up reply actions
I miss the tenacity of Martin Skoula.
Your 2010-2011 Colorado Avalanche: Reaching Up to the Cap Floor
by Bob in Boulder on Aug 3, 2010 1:03 PM MDT up reply actions
I miss
watching Peter Worrell skate.
At least i can still watch highlights
Intelligent opinion does not follow the transitive property
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Aug 3, 2010 1:26 PM MDT up reply actions
has the scoring touch of marek svatos (too soon?)
The avs should do something like this every game, I’d go to watch the bear and peta can go and protest it.
Son, when you participate in sporting events - it's not whether you win or lose, it's how drunk you get.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Aug 3, 2010 3:21 PM MDT up reply actions
DCC, what I take away from the above, rather than inconsistant I think we can label Wolski as underachieving. He just just to underachieve really well – he somehow learned to give 60 to 80 percent every night, the 60% nights just balance out the 100% nights.
Son, when you participate in sporting events - it's not whether you win or lose, it's how drunk you get.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Aug 3, 2010 3:28 PM MDT reply actions
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