As this is the time of year where the Avs keep from giving - I figured a look at the performance of the Avs when the game was close is warranted. This gives us some idea of who scores the important goals.
Numbers are from Vic Ferrari's timeonice pages.
So, what is close you ask? A close game here is when the score is within one goal in the first or second period, or when tied in the third period or overtime. All numbers are based on only even-strength situations.
Firstly, lets look at the top 10 goal-scorers in these situations:
|
Player |
Games Played |
Goals |
Saved Shots |
Shooting % |
|
Stewart |
74 |
11 |
71 |
13.40% |
|
Wolski |
59 |
9 |
60 |
13.00% |
|
Duchene |
78 |
7 |
59 |
10.60% |
|
Hejduk |
53 |
5 |
39 |
11.40% |
|
Stastny |
78 |
5 |
67 |
6.90% |
|
Hendricks |
51 |
4 |
24 |
14.30% |
|
Mueller |
14 |
3 |
6 |
33.30% |
|
Yip |
31 |
3 |
17 |
15.00% |
|
Durno |
36 |
3 |
15 |
16.70% |
|
Cumiskey |
59 |
3 |
25 |
10.70% |
Observations:
- The top of the list is not too surprising - the top 5 players are the top 5 goal scorers. Wolski does jump from 5th to 2nd by this metric and Duchene and Co slide down one place.
- The real surprises however, are the presence Hendricks and Durno in 6th and T-7th respectively.
- The absence of Galiardi, who was the Avs 6th best goal scorer, from this list is also somewhat surprising.
- Mueller's shooting percentage of 33.33% (!) is way, way too high to be sustained coming into this season.
Now, the team-wide figures for close games:
(Caution: Big table with lots of numbers ahead)
|
Player |
Goals When On Ice |
Saved Shots |
Shots% |
Corsi% |
On Ice EVsave% |
On Ice EVshooting% |
||
|
Mueller |
6 |
1 |
47 |
60 |
0.465 |
0.444 |
0.984 |
11.30% |
|
Wolski |
21 |
8 |
203 |
208 |
0.509 |
0.457 |
0.963 |
9.40% |
|
Jones |
6 |
4 |
70 |
86 |
0.458 |
0.422 |
0.956 |
7.90% |
|
Clark |
16 |
11 |
190 |
196 |
0.499 |
0.469 |
0.947 |
7.80% |
|
Tucker |
6 |
9 |
105 |
141 |
0.425 |
0.437 |
0.94 |
5.40% |
|
Stoa |
1 |
2 |
24 |
31 |
0.431 |
0.456 |
0.939 |
4.00% |
|
Wilson |
17 |
13 |
148 |
196 |
0.441 |
0.436 |
0.938 |
10.30% |
|
Quincey |
27 |
24 |
251 |
347 |
0.428 |
0.401 |
0.935 |
9.70% |
|
Hejduk |
19 |
14 |
162 |
195 |
0.464 |
0.443 |
0.933 |
10.50% |
|
Liles |
16 |
13 |
157 |
179 |
0.474 |
0.454 |
0.932 |
9.20% |
|
Foote |
25 |
20 |
196 |
273 |
0.43 |
0.422 |
0.932 |
11.30% |
|
Duchene |
22 |
20 |
205 |
265 |
0.443 |
0.428 |
0.93 |
9.70% |
|
Stewart |
27 |
21 |
196 |
275 |
0.43 |
0.425 |
0.929 |
12.10% |
|
Durno |
7 |
5 |
45 |
64 |
0.43 |
0.404 |
0.928 |
13.50% |
|
Team |
74 |
70 |
737 |
907 |
0.454 |
0.433 |
0.928 |
9.10% |
|
Stastny |
31 |
23 |
264 |
287 |
0.488 |
0.458 |
0.926 |
10.50% |
|
O'Reilly |
13 |
20 |
194 |
243 |
0.44 |
0.415 |
0.924 |
6.30% |
|
Hendricks |
10 |
7 |
77 |
84 |
0.489 |
0.415 |
0.923 |
11.50% |
|
Hannan |
29 |
31 |
265 |
346 |
0.438 |
0.415 |
0.918 |
9.90% |
|
Galiardi |
16 |
21 |
190 |
229 |
0.452 |
0.44 |
0.916 |
7.80% |
|
Salei |
0 |
5 |
51 |
54 |
0.464 |
0.435 |
0.915 |
0.00% |
|
Koci |
1 |
2 |
15 |
21 |
0.41 |
0.398 |
0.913 |
6.30% |
|
McLeod |
13 |
17 |
144 |
173 |
0.452 |
0.437 |
0.911 |
8.30% |
|
Cumiskey |
18 |
22 |
198 |
213 |
0.479 |
0.459 |
0.906 |
8.30% |
|
Yip |
8 |
11 |
75 |
100 |
0.428 |
0.427 |
0.901 |
9.60% |
|
Svatos |
5 |
11 |
90 |
99 |
0.463 |
0.457 |
0.9 |
5.30% |
|
Yelle |
2 |
4 |
22 |
34 |
0.387 |
0.36 |
0.895 |
8.30% |
|
Porter |
2 |
4 |
28 |
30 |
0.469 |
0.466 |
0.882 |
6.70% |
Observations:
- The departed Wolski has the best goal differential (+13), shots percentage (0.509) and the 2nd best EV save percentage (.963). In particular, the large deviation of EV save percentage from that of the team (.928) could indicate that Wolski was getting unsustainably good bounces in goalie performance whilst close (or he is a stud, or he is a lucky stud).
- After that the goal differential are what you would expect - with fellow 1st liners Stastny (+8) and Stewart (+6), and the veteran Hedjuk (+5) having the best results in close games. This is exceptional considering they also faced the toughest competition amongst regular forwards last season. Further, unlike Wolski - they both got the job done whilst getting team-average goal support in close situations. These are the guys the Avs expect to be game-changers - and for good reason.
- Duchene's goal differential in close games (+2) isn't too flattering at the moment - but I would expect like his +/-, that it improved immensely as the season went on.
- Mueller's save percentage at EV during close games is ridiculously high (.984) and won't last into this season.
- Likewise, Cumiskey's save percentage (.906, lowest amongst defensemen) is quite low - its likely this will improve this year.
- Pretty much everyone's Corsi sucks in close games - which isn't a surprise, given what the naysayers were saying during the season. What is perhaps a surprise is the fact that Clark had the best Corsi (.469). Does this show there is something wrong with Corsi - I'll let the reader decide...
So, given the above analysis - its time for a poll...
Poll
Who would you turn to late in the third period with scores tied...?
Paul Stastny (3 votes)
Chris Stewart (9 votes)
Matt Duchene (11 votes)
Brandon Yip (1 vote)
Craig Anderson (12 votes)
Other (2 votes)
38 total votes


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