FanPost

Looking at the Avs performance in Close Games


As this is the time of year where the Avs keep from giving - I figured a look at the performance of the Avs when the game was close is warranted. This gives us some idea of who scores the important goals.

Numbers are from Vic Ferrari's timeonice pages.

So, what is close you ask? A close game here is when the score is within one goal in the first or second period, or when tied in the third period or overtime. All numbers are based on only even-strength situations.

Firstly, lets look at the top 10 goal-scorers in these situations:

Player

Games Played

Goals

Saved Shots

Shooting %

Stewart

74

11

71

13.40%

Wolski

59

9

60

13.00%

Duchene

78

7

59

10.60%

Hejduk

53

5

39

11.40%

Stastny

78

5

67

6.90%

Hendricks

51

4

24

14.30%

Mueller

14

3

6

33.30%

Yip

31

3

17

15.00%

Durno

36

3

15

16.70%

Cumiskey

59

3

25

10.70%

Observations:

  • The top of the list is not too surprising - the top 5 players are the top 5 goal scorers. Wolski does jump from 5th to 2nd by this metric and Duchene and Co slide down one place.
  • The real surprises however, are the presence Hendricks and Durno in 6th and T-7th respectively.
  • The absence of Galiardi, who was the Avs 6th best goal scorer, from this list is also somewhat surprising.
  • Mueller's shooting percentage of 33.33% (!) is way, way too high to be sustained coming into this season.

Now, the team-wide figures for close games:

(Caution: Big table with lots of numbers ahead)

Player

Goals When On Ice

Saved Shots

Shots%

Corsi%

On Ice EVsave%

On Ice EVshooting%

Mueller

6

1

47

60

0.465

0.444

0.984

11.30%

Wolski

21

8

203

208

0.509

0.457

0.963

9.40%

Jones

6

4

70

86

0.458

0.422

0.956

7.90%

Clark

16

11

190

196

0.499

0.469

0.947

7.80%

Tucker

6

9

105

141

0.425

0.437

0.94

5.40%

Stoa

1

2

24

31

0.431

0.456

0.939

4.00%

Wilson

17

13

148

196

0.441

0.436

0.938

10.30%

Quincey

27

24

251

347

0.428

0.401

0.935

9.70%

Hejduk

19

14

162

195

0.464

0.443

0.933

10.50%

Liles

16

13

157

179

0.474

0.454

0.932

9.20%

Foote

25

20

196

273

0.43

0.422

0.932

11.30%

Duchene

22

20

205

265

0.443

0.428

0.93

9.70%

Stewart

27

21

196

275

0.43

0.425

0.929

12.10%

Durno

7

5

45

64

0.43

0.404

0.928

13.50%

Team

74

70

737

907

0.454

0.433

0.928

9.10%

Stastny

31

23

264

287

0.488

0.458

0.926

10.50%

O'Reilly

13

20

194

243

0.44

0.415

0.924

6.30%

Hendricks

10

7

77

84

0.489

0.415

0.923

11.50%

Hannan

29

31

265

346

0.438

0.415

0.918

9.90%

Galiardi

16

21

190

229

0.452

0.44

0.916

7.80%

Salei

0

5

51

54

0.464

0.435

0.915

0.00%

Koci

1

2

15

21

0.41

0.398

0.913

6.30%

McLeod

13

17

144

173

0.452

0.437

0.911

8.30%

Cumiskey

18

22

198

213

0.479

0.459

0.906

8.30%

Yip

8

11

75

100

0.428

0.427

0.901

9.60%

Svatos

5

11

90

99

0.463

0.457

0.9

5.30%

Yelle

2

4

22

34

0.387

0.36

0.895

8.30%

Porter

2

4

28

30

0.469

0.466

0.882

6.70%

 

 Observations:

  • The departed Wolski has the best goal differential (+13), shots percentage (0.509) and the 2nd best EV save percentage (.963). In particular, the large deviation of EV save percentage from that of the team (.928) could indicate that Wolski was getting unsustainably good bounces in goalie performance whilst close (or he is a stud, or he is a lucky stud).
  • After that the goal differential are what you would expect - with fellow 1st liners Stastny (+8) and Stewart (+6), and the veteran Hedjuk (+5) having the best results in close games. This is exceptional considering they also faced the toughest competition amongst regular forwards last season. Further, unlike Wolski - they both got the job done whilst getting team-average goal support in close situations. These are the guys the Avs expect to be game-changers - and for good reason.
  • Duchene's goal differential in close games (+2) isn't too flattering at the moment - but I would expect like his +/-, that it improved immensely as the season went on. 
  • Mueller's save percentage at EV during close games is ridiculously high (.984) and won't last into this season.
  • Likewise, Cumiskey's save percentage (.906, lowest amongst defensemen) is quite low - its likely this will improve this year.
  • Pretty much everyone's Corsi sucks in close games - which isn't a surprise, given what the naysayers were saying during the season. What is perhaps a surprise is the fact that Clark had the best Corsi (.469). Does this show there is something wrong with Corsi - I'll let the reader decide...

So, given the above analysis - its time for a poll... 

MileHighHockey.com is a fan community, allowing members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Colorado Avalanche and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editors of MileHighHockey.com.

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