Comparing our Johnson

by andidee15 on Nov 5, 2011 3:49 PM MDT in Avalanche News & Notes

We all know EJ is still a really young player - he just finished up his 22-year-old season. Defensemen usually don't hit their stride until 25 or 26, so the fact he's a #1 defensemen in the NHL right now says something about his caliber of play. However, he's constantly being compared negatively to more experienced defensemen in the NHL. So let's compare apples with apples here for a moment. Here are some stats from elite defensemen - including the past 7 winners of the Norris Trophy - through their 22-year-old seasons.

Norris	Player	Exp.	GP	G	A	Pts	PPG	+/-	PIM	S%	TOI	Team Win %
*	Nicklas Lidstrom	2	164	18	83	101	0.616	+43	50	5.56	N/A	54.9
*	Duncan Keith	1	81	9	12	21	0.260	-11	79	6.7	23:26	31.7
*	Zdeno Chara	3	149	4	16	20	0.134	-34	190	3.54	20:52	31.7
*	Scott Niedermayer	4	292	33	106	139	0.476	+67	155	6.59	N/A	49.7
*	Chris Pronger	4	281	28	76	104	0.370	-18	420	5.06	N/A	38.5
*	Al MacInnis	5	211	37	146	183	0.867	+45	202	5.53	N/A	44.0
*	Rob Blake	3	136	19	47	66	0.485	-2	231	6.69	N/A	47.9
*	Average of Norris Winners	3	188	21	69	91	0.458	-16	190	5.67	-	42.6
	Erik Johnson	3	225	23	78	101	0.449	-21	163	5.08	20:49	42.6
	Shea Weber	3	161	25	45	70	0.435	+15	151	7.14	18:38	57.3
	Drew Doughty (Age 21)	3	239	33	93	126	0.527	+16	178	8.11	24:49	51.2

EJ might be making some bonehead moves this year when it comes to turnovers, but he is not a bad defensemen. He actually compares pretty closely to many of the Norris winners at the same age and has put up extremely respectable numbers despite playing for non-playoff teams. And even though he hasn't scored a goal this year, he still has 7 assists, which puts him at .538PPG. His plus/minus is lackluster, but that's because he's averaging 23:31 a game (the most of anyone on the team) and all of his points have come on powerplays. If you were to include power play points, his +/- would jump up to a +1. He hasn't taken a single penalty (stupid or otherwise) so far this year, and his difference between takeaways and giveaways is only a -2 even though he does lead the team in turnovers (12). He's hitting (14, 9th on the team), shooting (29 SOG, 6th on the team and ahead of Duchene and Jones), blocking shots (20, 2nd on the team), and is playing huge minutes on both the powerplay and penalty kill. He's even tied for 4th in the league for powerplay points.

Yes, he is generating too many turnovers. Yes, none of his shots have fallen so far this year. But he's a young player and he's doing pretty darn well in every other aspect of his game. He knows he needs to be better, and this season so far has just been a small sample size. His seasonal averages over the past 3 years show that his play as of late is just a bit of a cold snap. Even the best players have their ups and downs, especially when they're young (just take a look at Matt Duchene). Even though EJ is in a "down" right now, we are extremely lucky to have him on this team. If he keeps progressing as he has been, he's going to be a dominate defensemen in the league within a few years. Also, don't forget that he lost an entire season due to injury and took about half of the next to return to his standard level of play. So please, have patience and temper your expectations.

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Comments

If he could get his first pass out of the zone under control, those giveaway numbers would get better in a hurry.

It's all about the O'

by SteveHouse on Nov 5, 2011 4:06 PM MDT reply actions

Good read. Thanks andidee.

by Stormsign21 on Nov 5, 2011 4:31 PM MDT via mobile reply actions

I don’t know very much about the psychology of athletes so bare with this comment, but I just hope EJ doesn’t plateau due to circumstance where he needs yet another new environment to truly succeed.

It bothers me how a lot of NHL fans are coming to conclusions after the St. Louis trade so soon already. It’s quite ridiculous really that they have no sense of mind to allow father time to assess the trade. I mean, just look at the Dallas-Avs recap article and how one of the top comments is how EJ is a bust.

If people can put faith in Zeus and Jesus, then we sure as hell can give EJ a few years of the same thing.

Go Avaranche!

by Sean Harsha on Nov 5, 2011 4:39 PM MDT reply actions

*recap article = on TSN

Go Avaranche!

by Sean Harsha on Nov 5, 2011 4:39 PM MDT up reply actions

EJ was taken 1st Overall. No matter where he plays, people are going to be hypercritical on him. However, Sacco has done a really good job so far of providing EJ an environment in which to succeed: big minutes, a consistent D partner, and a “go play your game” attitude. And when it became clear that EJ and Hejda weren’t gelling, Sacco put him Wilson, who has been playing really well as of late. And it’s not like EJ’s not been trying out there – in fact, some of his mistakes come from trying too hard. Nearly all of his weaknesses so far can easily be corrected with a little coaching and a bit of luck. He’s our undisputed #1 guy, and he’s going to be hardpressed to find a better situation in the NHL than the one he’s in right now.

He’s as much of a “bust” as Weber, Chara, Keith, and Blake were at his age with about twice the pressure to be good. He’s the only defenseman to be picked 1st overall in 15 years – since there is no one else to compare him with, people get all butthurt when he’s not lighting up the world like the forwards Crosby and Ovechkin. But he’s developing at a solid rate. Defensemen just take a little longer is all, especially when they lose a year to injury and have never played on a team good enough to make it to the playoffs.

Just a Colorado girl in Montana who <3s the Avs.
Varly: you're awesome. We love you. Please don't break.

by andidee15 on Nov 5, 2011 5:18 PM MDT up reply actions

exactly

Go Avaranche!

by Sean Harsha on Nov 5, 2011 5:32 PM MDT up reply actions

What I like about the guy is his attitude. He knows the expectations of his draft status & what was given in the trade. Yet he holds himself accountable & strives to get better. If that means a few errant passes, then so be it. Some of those Norris caliber guys you mentioned make some bone-headed decisions, even at these stages of their careers, that drive their collective fans nuts.

by Stormsign21 on Nov 5, 2011 6:09 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions

Great article.

Very interesting and well written. Went through the same thing with Zach Bogosian back when ATL had a team. Haters going to hate. Defense takes a longer time to develop then anywhere else (outside of goalies). He is already strides above other players in the league. when hes 25 and still turning it over at this rate, then I will join the panic boat. But for now, enjoy the development.

"The last three or four reps is what makes the muscle grow. This area of pain divides the champion from someone else who is not a champion. That's what most people lack, having the guts to go on and just say they'll go through the pain no matter what happens."
- Arnold Schwarzenegger

by David G. Little on Nov 5, 2011 5:12 PM MDT reply actions

Funny that you would post this right now – your sister was telling me how much of a Johnson fan you are.

Personally, I really haven’t been too impressed thus far. But admittedly, I think a lot of that might have to do with my expectations being so high, and him not living up…. yet. I’m not writing him off by any means, and won’t for years, but I WOULD like to see some improvement.

Forever grateful that Joe Sakic isn't a raging dick hole like Brett Favre.

by Rather Dashing on Nov 5, 2011 5:57 PM MDT reply actions

It’s true. I am a huge EJ fan, much to her dismay. She’s still a bit peeved that he’s part of the reason Shatty’s not here anymore.

And I think everyone, EJ included, would like to see some improvement. But he is only 23. I still think he’ll have a good year this year, but he probably won’t live up to people’s standards for another couple seasons. {shrugs} It’s just the way defensemen seem to be. We’ve just got to be patient.

Just a Colorado girl in Montana who <3s the Avs.
Varly: you're awesome. We love you. Please don't break.

by andidee15 on Nov 5, 2011 6:11 PM MDT up reply actions

I was critical of EJ after last game because of high expectations that he should be producing more in the goal scoring…but I see your point….since our defense hasn’t played as well as the first few games of the season, I look for him, as one of the leaders of the defense, to step up and make some game changing things happen and well…I’m disappointed at this time.

"Hey man, don't bogart that puck."

by KKtheHippie on Nov 5, 2011 6:27 PM MDT reply actions

I’m a little disappointed too. I had hoped he’d come out of the gate at least as good as he was for us last year. But this is just a little cold snap and it’s going to turn around. He’s been shooting the puck and has had a lot of shots clink off the posts – sooner or later, his luck will turn around and those will start to fall. Even though EJ’s never had more than 10 goals in a season, I don’t think 15-20 is out of the question this year. Like a lot of the Avs, he just seems a little snakebit right now.

Just a Colorado girl in Montana who <3s the Avs.
Varly: you're awesome. We love you. Please don't break.

by andidee15 on Nov 5, 2011 6:43 PM MDT up reply actions

I care a LOT more about his glaring defensive mistakes than the fact that he hasn’t been scoring goals.

Forever grateful that Joe Sakic isn't a raging dick hole like Brett Favre.

by Rather Dashing on Nov 5, 2011 6:48 PM MDT up reply actions

ditto

by David G. Little on Nov 5, 2011 7:37 PM MDT up reply actions

He seems to be doing the same thing Dutchy was up until last game – trying too hard to make the right passes, the right plays. Once he relaxes, I think that problem will go down. Maybe playing more with Wilson will help. I hope so at least. I also hope/bet that Sacco and Lefebvre are working with him. Playing defense has a lot of nuances that are going to take some time to learn. I’ve not watched much hockey, but turnovers/bad positioning seems to be a pretty common problem with young defensemen. EJ seems to be a smart guy with a ton of skills and a really high ceiling. It’s just going to take some time.

Just a Colorado girl in Montana who <3s the Avs.
Varly: you're awesome. We love you. Please don't break.

by andidee15 on Nov 5, 2011 7:43 PM MDT up reply actions

Sure, he does occasionally make some bad mistakes.

But it also seems that every game I see EJ make a play that only two or three other defensemen (usually Pronger/Weber/Chara or Keith/Doughty) in the league can make. Often it’s skating into the corner, knocking the puck off a guy’s stick, boxing him out, and then firing a breakout pass. Sometimes that’s a simple play (when the opposing player doesn’t have body position), but with EJ it often doesn’t even matter if the player has body position or not; he can get the puck back regardless. Most defensemen, other than Pronger/Weber/Chara, can’t do that.

Other times EJ is being pressured hard by a forechecker and can’t make a pass, so he does a quick stop and spins back around the forechecker, using his body to shield the puck, and is then free to go the other way with a pass. Few defensemen have the skating ability or puck poise to do that: Keith and Doughty do, but that’s about it.

What’s my point? Though he does make mistakes, EJ absolutely has the raw ability to be as physically dominant (not in the punishing sense, but in the using-size-to-your-advantage sense) as a Weber or Chara AND as good skating with the puck as a Keith or a Doughty. Maybe he won’t ever put it all together, but the fact is that very few players even have that raw talent, let alone figure out how to harness it. None of the players that DDC mentioned in his post ever had that raw ability (other than Martin Skoula and his puck poise, of course), imo.

For me, the only question is whether or not EJ can figure out where and when to use that raw talent, and when to just make the safe play (as an aside, that’s exactly what Duchene needs to learn, too). That’s a part of learning how to play defense in the NHL, which is never a quick process. Give him time, and I think he’ll be a dominant player.

by ExiledAmongYou on Nov 6, 2011 12:55 AM MDT reply actions