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Around SBN: Shaq As Orlando Magic General Manager? Don't Bet On It

...And Sometimes Other Johnsons Don't Quite Measure Up

 

By now, you've probably had a chance to read Andi's excellent look at Avalanche defenseman Erik Johnson and the way the numbers at his age stack up to those of some Norris-level defensemen. Andi points out that Johnson is still very young and that his numbers compare favorably to the numbers of the last seven Norris winners at his age (23). And clearly, there shouldn't be any expectations for EJ to be Norris caliber right now. Those seven Norris winners Andi mentioned? Here's the season they won their first Norris: Lidstrom, 10th. Chara, 11th. Niedermayer, 12th. Keith, 5th. MacInnis, 15th. Blake, 9th.

But, I would also like to humbly point out that moderate success at a young age doesn't automatically mean one needs to start making room on the mantle for hardware. First, let's look at Andi's chart again without all that girly formatting because I don't want you people to start expecting frills like that (also, because I'm lazy)

 

 Player  Exp.  GP  G  A  Pts  PPG  +/-  PIM  S%  TOI
 Nicklas Lidstrom  2   164   18   83   101   0.616   43   50   5.56%   N/A
 Duncan Keith  1   81   9   12   21   0.260   -11   79   6.70%   23:26 
 Zdeno Chara  3   149   4   16   20   0.134   -34   190   3.54%   20:52 
 Scott Niedermayer  4   292   33   106   139   0.476   67   155   6.69%   N/A
 Chris Pronger  4   281   28   76   104   0.370   -18   420   5.06%   N/A
 Al MacInnis  5   211   37   146   183   0.867   45   202   5.53%   N/A
 Rob Blake  3   136   19   47   66   0.485   -2   231   6.69%   N/A
  Average of Norris Winners  3   188   21   69   91   0.458   -16   190   5.67%   -
 Erik Johnson  3   225   23   78   101   0.449   -21   163   5.08%   20:49 
 Shea Weber  3   161   25   45   70   0.435   15   151   7.14%   18:38 
 Drew Doughty (Age 21)  3   239   33   93   126   0.527   16   178   8.11%   0:49 

 

My first thought when reading that was "damn, Johnson really measures up well to some big names". My second thought was "hmmm, but I wonder if I could find players with similar numbers at age 22 that didn't quite turn into Norris winners". And I could.

 

 Player  Exp.    GP    G    A    Pts    PPG    +/-    PIM    S%    TOI  
 Martin Skoula  3   244   21   51   72   0.295   10   100   7.60%   20:24 
 Derek Morris  4   282   30   99   129   0.457   -8   297   4.96%   23:48 
 Marc-Edouard Vlasic  3   245   11   65   76   0.310   16   84   4.55%   22:34 
 Andrej Meszaros  3   246   26   84   110   0.447   24   213   5.86%   20:18 
 Tomas Kaberle  3   221   17   90   107   0.484   34   60   6.83%   21:26 
 Oleg Tverdovsky  3   200   20   77   97   0.485   -18   85   6.92% 
 Kyle McLaren  5   321   29   70   99   0.308   17   298   6.02% 

 

There some good names on the list (and a couple who could probably help the Avalanche out NOW), but no Norris Trophies. In fact, those 7 players have combined for 5 All-Star appearances - 4 by Kaberle and 1 by Tverdovsky. Not bad. Not elite either.

There's another thing that troubles me about Andi's list of Norris winners. When Nick Lidstrom was 23, he had guys like Paul Coffey, Steve Chiasson and Vladimir Konstantinov on the blueline with him. Chris Pronger at 23 had Al MacInnis and Steve Duchesne. Blake had Coffey too, along with veteran Charlie Huddy. Scott Niedermayer had Scott Stevens and Ken Daneyko. Al MacInnis had Gary Suter and Brian Engblom's mullet. The point is, a lot of these guys were playing with Norris winners (Coffey, MacInnis), Norris candidates (Stevens), steady veterans (Chiasson, Huddy and Daneyko) and guys who could move the puck (Coffey, Duchesne, Suter). In other words, most of them had help. The Avalanche this year has a good group of blueliners, but it would be tough to say that EJ has help of the same pedigree that many of the others had.

We don't know today what kind of career Erik Johnson is going to have. He isn't playing like a Norris candidate right now, but no one should expect him to. He clearly has the talent to get to that level someday, but that "someday" would realistically be years away. Or, it could never happen. He could be another Derek Morris; a good player who is approaching his 1,000th NHL game but who, after a lot of early promise, had just 1 40-point season in the NHL (ironically, for the Avs). Andi asked us to have patience, as we are still looking at the really early stages of his career trajectory. I agree 100%. I'd add, though, that we may just wake up some day and find out that our Johnson didn't quite measure up like we thought it would.

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Agree with both you and Andi.

Patience is the key, but I like EJ’s game. While I understand why you might have a tepid approach toward viewing Norris type star play from him, I see how his game translates to an upside for him. He has good to great puck handling ability. Right now, it’s too loose, and he makes mental errors, like leaving the puck behind, and he isn’t always calm, but I’m optimistic his game will mature as the team’s does. He’s big, but doesn’t use his body as well as he might, but that, again can improve. Much of what holds him back is the huge responsibility of being the no. 1 guy. You are very right in mentioning the mentors so many of the Norris winners had. I look at the lower list with Morris and Skoula and think when they had their decent years with the Avs, they were surrounded by the Blakes, Bourques, and Footes, so they did not have to brunt the force of being the guy on D. Plus, they had a slew of forwards, like Forsberg, Sakic, Duk, and Tangs, who could possess the puck down low, which makes it a whole lot easier to play, than the sometimes scrambly pucks that pop off wayward forwards sticks of the present day Avs. I think EJ is far away a better player than either Skoula or Morris, based on his overall skill level and just watching him play. EJ feels the responsibility, all the time. He does try to do too much, at times, to prove he is that overall no. 1 pick, but I like the fact he does hold himself accountable as the no. 1 guy and I think he does it pretty well. All things considered, I don’t disagree that he could end up not being a consistent, great defenseman, but I like his chances. I think he’s got special qualities, and they’ll show up. I do wish Sacco would quit playing him with Hejda. Those two can play some brutal hockey, and, at times, look like siamese twins removed, in a bad way.

...holy freaking f*ck, snakes!

by 7sky on Nov 5, 2011 8:24 PM MDT reply actions   1 recs

Why do you hate the Avs?

Datsyuk may have done it first, but he learned it from Peter Forsberg.

Thanks for everything Foppa!
Footer: We'll miss seeing you clear the riff raff off your lawn.

by Americanario on Nov 5, 2011 9:09 PM MDT reply actions  

I too wish EJ had some help. Hedja, even though he’s 33, has only been in the NHL for 5 seasons, the same as O’Brien and Quincey. We have zero blueline vets – EJ’s responsible for carrying this team pretty much by himself. It’s kind of unfair, really: the forwards have Duke, the goalies have Giggy, and the defensemen have no one. But we do have Lefebvre. It would be better if there was a vet on the ice helping EJ out, but having a Stanley Cup-winning defensemen talking to him in practice is the next best thing. And I think the Avs have kept Adam Foote nearby – hopefully he can help too.

I still like EJ’s chances of becoming a reliable #1 guy even if he isn’t Norris caliber. And honestly, I think that he still has enough upside reach Norris level. Like I said in my article, he’s put up really, really good numbers despite playing on pretty crappy teams. If EJ was on the Kings roster instead of Doughty, I think their numbers would be very different. EJ is still a very, very good young defenseman who I have high hopes for. Sylvain Lebebvre’s just got his work cut out for him.

Just a Colorado girl in Montana who <3s the Avs.
Varly: you're awesome. We love you. Please don't break.

by andidee15 on Nov 5, 2011 9:43 PM MDT reply actions  

I also suppose another name that should be thrown into the mix is another 1st Overall Defenseman, Ed Jovanovski. His numbers were no where near as good as EJ’s are at 23, but he still managed to be a 5-time All-Star later in his career.

Just a Colorado girl in Montana who <3s the Avs.
Varly: you're awesome. We love you. Please don't break.

by andidee15 on Nov 5, 2011 9:50 PM MDT up reply actions  

Funny that Skoula is on this list. I was cleaning out my childhood room recently, and found a sports section from the day after the Avs won their second cup. There was a delightful article about how the Avs would be relying on their great young defenseman Skoula to keep up his strong play.

Yeah, that worked out REALLY well for us.

Forever grateful that Joe Sakic isn't a raging dick hole like Brett Favre.

by Rather Dashing on Nov 5, 2011 11:02 PM MDT reply actions  

I traded him away in NHL 2002 because I got Pronger (and don't want Skoula).

Skoula ends up developing into an elite player, and Pronger never improves from his original rating. FML.

OWL LINE!!! HOOO!!!! HOOOO!!!!

The 2011-2012 Colorado Avalanche: there will be blood and there will be wins.

"God I'm excited for those two to fail miserably." - SBNation writer Andrew Sharp on Josh McDaniels and Tim Tebow.

The Number Zero, now in colour. Blood and Thunder Record: 6-4-0 (Total Record: 7-7-0)

by Tempestuous Binary on Nov 5, 2011 11:56 PM MDT up reply actions  

For the +/- junkies...

Hejda was +23 with the BJs. That’s nice. But he was +43 in his first two years. Okay, now the math junkies calculate what he was in his last two years.

+23 doesn’t look as nice. But I still like Hejda. He’s not flashy, but when he’s on, he does a great job of just eliminating the play. It’s thankless work most people don’t notice or care about, and what we need more of.

OWL LINE!!! HOOO!!!! HOOOO!!!!

The 2011-2012 Colorado Avalanche: there will be blood and there will be wins.

"God I'm excited for those two to fail miserably." - SBNation writer Andrew Sharp on Josh McDaniels and Tim Tebow.

The Number Zero, now in colour. Blood and Thunder Record: 6-4-0 (Total Record: 7-7-0)

by Tempestuous Binary on Nov 6, 2011 12:04 AM MDT reply actions  

Also:

Gm…..TIO
8……..23:04
9……..19:49
10……19:41
11……18:40
12……18:13
13……17:44

Since the second game against the Hawks, his ice time has steadily declined.

OWL LINE!!! HOOO!!!! HOOOO!!!!

The 2011-2012 Colorado Avalanche: there will be blood and there will be wins.

"God I'm excited for those two to fail miserably." - SBNation writer Andrew Sharp on Josh McDaniels and Tim Tebow.

The Number Zero, now in colour. Blood and Thunder Record: 6-4-0 (Total Record: 7-7-0)

by Tempestuous Binary on Nov 6, 2011 12:12 AM MDT up reply actions  

I don’t like this… We’ll see

It's all about the O'

by SteveHouse on Nov 6, 2011 1:01 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

I wouldn’t read too much into his TOI ‘drop’ for two reasons.

1. Sacco is really balancing the TOI across all 6 defenseman with TOI’s of 17.46, 16.99, 16.77, 16.55, 15.74 and 14.73.

2. Hejda still averages the highest TOI on the team at 5-on-5 (17.46) and 4-on-5 (2:36).

by HugoAgogo on Nov 6, 2011 2:50 PM MST up reply actions  

Agree. I wonder if he’s seeing less time on the PK?

If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!

by Mike @ MHH on Nov 7, 2011 10:13 AM MST up reply actions  

Hey Lidstrom was a minus last year and still won the Norris..

I love it
2 Wing fans disagreeing about a potential deal for Shea Weber in the comments section of a post about the Avalanche.

Winging It In Motown
by Amerinadian on Sep 12, 2011 9:51 AM PDT up reply 1 recs

by Randy Time on Nov 6, 2011 4:03 AM MDT up reply actions  

I’ve said it before, but I think EJ needs a mentor on the ice with him. You could call that “help”, but having a vet on the ice to help get EJ some confidence in his passing, etc. would be huge. A player, especially a defensemen I’d speculate, can progress a hell of a lot faster and even past the point he would’ve otherwise, with “help” like that.

Laughter and tears are both responses to frustration and exhaustion. I myself prefer to laugh, since there is less cleaning up to do afterward. - Kv

by MalachiConstant on Nov 6, 2011 7:42 AM MDT reply actions  

I think EJ needs to be a number 2 or maybe even a number 3 defenseman for 2 or 3 years and then maybe he could develop. Look at what Lidstrom played behind. Then remember even after what DDC mentioned they had Uwe Krupp and Chris Chelios playing with him.

by cush52 on Nov 7, 2011 9:25 PM MST up reply actions  

Speaking of D-men, be sure to check out the Wilson articles on Denver Post. ’Bout time somebody wrote an article on the fella

Go Avaranche!

by Sean Harsha on Nov 6, 2011 9:07 AM MST reply actions  

It’s a great read, for sure. We got Elliot and Wilson, Calgary got Leoprone? Yeaaah…. that trade’s looking pretty good if you ask me.

Forever grateful that Joe Sakic isn't a raging dick hole like Brett Favre.

by Rather Dashing on Nov 6, 2011 9:17 AM MST up reply actions  

Wilson has really stepped up his game this year. I love it. I hope he stays with us and keeps developing for a while yet.

Thanks, Joe... Thanks, Peter.... Thanks, Adam....

by mfured20 on Nov 6, 2011 9:48 AM MST up reply actions  

Thanks for some sunshine and even-headedness.

Thanks, Joe... Thanks, Peter.... Thanks, Adam....

by mfured20 on Nov 6, 2011 10:52 AM MST reply actions  

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