I think all you really proved by that is that Shattenkirk is better in offensive situations, while Johnson is better in defensive situations. I still say this is exactly what the Avs need.

First, there is no “old adage” about the team getting the best player wins the deal. I’ve heard that twice in regards to this trade, but I’d never heard it before that.

The problem with this analysis, just like sabermetrics in baseball, is that they look at the players in a vacuum. Statistical analyses are great, but not for everything. They completely ignore team needs. The Avs have more offensive dmen than you could for in a trash barrel, including more in the pipeline. At least one of them was expendable, and the team has needed a guy of Johnson’s ilk for a long time. If he’s a standard on the blueline for several years, then it was a good trade, even if he isn’t a full blown superstar.

Anyway, this trade was more Stewart for Johnson, a 2nd for McClement, and a 1st for Shattenkirk.

Though I don’t totally agree with your conclusion. Basically you stated

Overall: Stewart > McClement (which is true, though it’s not that black and white)
Defense: Johnson > Shattenkirk
Offense: Shattenkirk > Johnson

With just those three categories, yeah, Blues win the deal. But the 1st the Avs acquire is > than the 2nd they gave away, so that kinda evens things out. Also take into account that Johnson has a much much higher ceiling than Shattenkirk.

Another point is that the Avs acquired size, which they needed, a potential #1 d-man, which they needed, and improved defensively both on the blueline and in the forward core, which they needed to do. Also, helped their re-build with an additional 1st.

All that said, just looking at the numbers I think this is a pretty good analysis. I’ve never paid much attention to the different stat models, but you explain it well.

but we have to remember that Shatty played with a high powered offense for awhile there so the scoring will be up right there. One would think if EJ was in that situation he too would see an increase. Luckily STL has some nice talent upfront and could be a high powered offense next year while Colorado continues to shift pieces and develop so Shatty will be in a better situation to produce again.
As for Stewart… I can’t say it was Stewie and a 2nd for McC and a 1st but even if it was that potential mid round pick (11-15?) would be higher than where Stewart was picked so talent can be had. Unfortunately Stewart is a rare breed and hard to find but his offense could be replaced. Then that leaves McC for a 2nd. This is all with rose colored glasses on