Aebischer Saves!

David Aebischer. Photo by Getty Images
Yesterday, Geoff Detweiler at Broad Street Hockey provided a spreadsheet a user had put together that listed every goalie since 1998 and their save percentages at even strength, shorthanded (PP Sv%) and on the powerplay (SH SV%). I thought it might be fun to take that data and see how it breaks down for Avalanche goalies.That is, until I got to the end, and found some very alarming trends. We'll get there, but first, let's see the numbers. Again, this is just from '98 on, and only includes seasons with the Avalanche, except in cases where a player was traded midseason, in which case it includes both.
The first thing I did was rank the players by even strength save percentage.
| Year | Name | Team | GP | GS | ES SV% | PP SV% | SH SV% | Total SV% |
| 2008 | Tyler Weiman | COL | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | |
| 2004 | David Aebischer | COL | 62 | 61 | 0.937 | 0.877 | 0.896 | 0.924 |
| 2010 | Peter Budaj | COL | 15 | 11 | 0.935 | 0.800 | 1.000 | 0.917 |
| 2002 | Patrick Roy | COL | 63 | 63 | 0.934 | 0.896 | 0.900 | 0.925 |
| 2003 | Patrick Roy | COL | 63 | 63 | 0.933 | 0.881 | 0.902 | 0.920 |
| 1998 | Craig Billington | COL | 23 | 19 | 0.932 | 0.912 | 0.833 | 0.923 |
| 1999 | Patrick Roy | COL | 61 | 61 | 0.930 | 0.875 | 0.923 | 0.917 |
| 2002 | David Aebischer | COL | 21 | 19 | 0.928 | 0.928 | 1.000 | 0.931 |
| 2003 | David Aebischer | COL | 22 | 19 | 0.928 | 0.872 | 0.923 | 0.916 |
| 2010 | Craig Anderson | COL | 71 | 71 | 0.926 | 0.879 | 0.905 | 0.917 |
| 2001 | David Aebischer | COL | 26 | 22 | 0.925 | 0.819 | 0.850 | 0.903 |
| 2001 | Patrick Roy | COL | 62 | 60 | 0.925 | 0.863 | 0.917 | 0.913 |
| 1999 | Marc Denis | COL | 4 | 3 | 0.924 | 0.889 | 1.000 | 0.918 |
| 2000 | Marc Denis | COL | 23 | 20 | 0.924 | 0.887 | 0.941 | 0.917 |
| 2000 | Patrick Roy | COL | 63 | 61 | 0.923 | 0.878 | 0.909 | 0.914 |
| 1998 | Patrick Roy | COL | 65 | 63 | 0.920 | 0.903 | 0.925 | 0.916 |
| 2004 | Philippe Sauve | COL | 17 | 16 | 0.920 | 0.843 | 0.667 | 0.896 |
| 2008 | Peter Budaj | COL | 35 | 30 | 0.919 | 0.828 | 0.964 | 0.903 |
| 2008 | Jose Theodore | COL | 53 | 52 | 0.917 | 0.873 | 0.943 | 0.910 |
| 2011 | Craig Anderson | COL | 29 | 28 | 0.916 | 0.855 | 0.818 | 0.903 |
| 2007 | Peter Budaj | COL | 57 | 53 | 0.914 | 0.856 | 0.932 | 0.905 |
| 2006 | Peter Budaj | COL | 34 | 29 | 0.913 | 0.855 | 0.975 | 0.900 |
| 2004 | Tommy Salo | EDM, COL | 49 | 46 | 0.913 | 0.841 | 0.877 | 0.897 |
| 2011 | Peter Budaj | COL | 25 | 22 | 0.912 | 0.809 | 0.889 | 0.894 |
| 2009 | Peter Budaj | COL | 56 | 55 | 0.908 | 0.858 | 0.923 | 0.899 |
| 2007 | Jose Theodore | COL | 33 | 29 | 0.906 | 0.841 | 0.882 | 0.891 |
| 2009 | Andrew Raycroft | COL | 31 | 27 | 0.905 | 0.832 | 0.864 | 0.892 |
| 1999 | Craig Billington | COL | 21 | 18 | 0.905 | 0.869 | 0.828 | 0.894 |
| 2006 | David Aebischer | COL, MTL | 50 | 49 | 0.905 | 0.885 | 0.877 | 0.899 |
| 2006 | Vitaly Kolesnik | COL | 8 | 7 | 0.894 | 0.854 | 1.000 | 0.888 |
| 2006 | Jose Theodore | MTL, COL | 43 | 41 | 0.893 | 0.839 | 0.902 | 0.882 |
| 2000 | Richard Tabaracci | ATL, COL | 3 | 2 | 0.846 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.880 |
Of course, the best season here belonged to Patrick Roy...woah, hold on. Actually, it wasn't. That honor went to David Aebischer, the first season after Roy retired. Did not see that one coming. Then again, one of the worst seasons by a goalie was put in by Aebischer as well, two seasons later. That was the year he was traded...for a guy who actually did have the worst season on the list (apologies to Rick Tabaracci, wherever he is).
If we dump the scrubs (10 games or less) and sort by overall save percentage, you get the following:
| Year | Name | Team | GP | GS | ES SV% | PP SV% | SH SV% | Total SV% |
| 2002 | David Aebischer | COL | 21 | 19 | 0.928 | 0.928 | 1.000 | 0.931 |
| 2002 | Patrick Roy | COL | 63 | 63 | 0.934 | 0.896 | 0.900 | 0.925 |
| 2004 | David Aebischer | COL | 62 | 61 | 0.937 | 0.877 | 0.896 | 0.924 |
| 1998 | Craig Billington | COL | 23 | 19 | 0.932 | 0.912 | 0.833 | 0.923 |
| 2003 | Patrick Roy | COL | 63 | 63 | 0.933 | 0.881 | 0.902 | 0.920 |
| 2010 | Peter Budaj | COL | 15 | 11 | 0.935 | 0.800 | 1.000 | 0.917 |
| 1999 | Patrick Roy | COL | 61 | 61 | 0.930 | 0.875 | 0.923 | 0.917 |
| 2010 | Craig Anderson | COL | 71 | 71 | 0.926 | 0.879 | 0.905 | 0.917 |
| 2000 | Marc Denis | COL | 23 | 20 | 0.924 | 0.887 | 0.941 | 0.917 |
| 2003 | David Aebischer | COL | 22 | 19 | 0.928 | 0.872 | 0.923 | 0.916 |
| 1998 | Patrick Roy | COL | 65 | 63 | 0.920 | 0.903 | 0.925 | 0.916 |
| 2000 | Patrick Roy | COL | 63 | 61 | 0.923 | 0.878 | 0.909 | 0.914 |
| 2001 | Patrick Roy | COL | 62 | 60 | 0.925 | 0.863 | 0.917 | 0.913 |
| 2008 | Jose Theodore | COL | 53 | 52 | 0.917 | 0.873 | 0.943 | 0.910 |
| 2007 | Peter Budaj | COL | 57 | 53 | 0.914 | 0.856 | 0.932 | 0.905 |
| 2001 | David Aebischer | COL | 26 | 22 | 0.925 | 0.819 | 0.850 | 0.903 |
| 2008 | Peter Budaj | COL | 35 | 30 | 0.919 | 0.828 | 0.964 | 0.903 |
| 2011 | Craig Anderson | COL | 29 | 28 | 0.916 | 0.855 | 0.818 | 0.903 |
| 2006 | Peter Budaj | COL | 34 | 29 | 0.913 | 0.855 | 0.975 | 0.900 |
| 2009 | Peter Budaj | COL | 56 | 55 | 0.908 | 0.858 | 0.923 | 0.899 |
| 2006 | David Aebischer | COL, MTL | 50 | 49 | 0.905 | 0.885 | 0.877 | 0.899 |
| 2004 | Tommy Salo | EDM, COL | 49 | 46 | 0.913 | 0.841 | 0.877 | 0.897 |
| 2004 | Philippe Sauve | COL | 17 | 16 | 0.920 | 0.843 | 0.667 | 0.896 |
| 2011 | Peter Budaj | COL | 25 | 22 | 0.912 | 0.809 | 0.889 | 0.894 |
| 1999 | Craig Billington | COL | 21 | 18 | 0.905 | 0.869 | 0.828 | 0.894 |
| 2009 | Andrew Raycroft | COL | 31 | 27 | 0.905 | 0.832 | 0.864 | 0.892 |
| 2007 | Jose Theodore | COL | 33 | 29 | 0.906 | 0.841 | 0.882 | 0.891 |
| 2006 | Jose Theodore | MTL, COL | 43 | 41 | 0.893 | 0.839 | 0.902 | 0.882 |
Again, Abby is all over the place as is Peter Budaj. Theodore had some very poor seasons in Denver and Patrick Roy is freaking awesome. Oh, and the current season by Craig Anderson and Peter Budaj are not very good. Raise your hand if you didn't already know that!
Finally, I totaled everyone up to see how everyone compares. Again, Abby & Theodore include some numbers from their '06 season with Montreal, and Roy's stats are from '98 on only
| Name | GP | GS | ES SV% | PP SV% | SH SV% | Total SV% |
| Patrick Roy | 377 | 371 | 0.928 | 0.883 | 0.914 | 0.918 |
| Marc Denis | 27 | 23 | 0.924 | 0.887 | 0.952 | 0.918 |
| David Aebischer | 181 | 170 | 0.924 | 0.879 | 0.896 | 0.914 |
| Craig Anderson | 100 | 99 | 0.923 | 0.872 | 0.885 | 0.913 |
| Craig Billington | 44 | 37 | 0.920 | 0.895 | 0.830 | 0.911 |
| Peter Budaj | 222 | 200 | 0.914 | 0.844 | 0.945 | 0.902 |
| Jose Theodore | 129 | 122 | 0.906 | 0.850 | 0.908 | 0.895 |
| Andrew Raycroft | 31 | 27 | 0.905 | 0.832 | 0.864 | 0.892 |
The first thing that came to mind: Jose Theodore wanted how much money to stay here?
The second thing? Peter Budaj has terrible numbers shorthanded (PP SV% = save percentage against the other team's powerplay). His .844 total save percentage is lousy (at least compared to other Avalanche goalies). His best season against the PP was 2009, when he managed .858 - still far below the pace. And his two worst seasons? Last season (.800) and this season (.809).
Conversely, Budaj's numbers against the other team's penalty kill are outstanding. He's allowed just 10 SH goals in his Avalanche career (183 shots against). Craig Anderson has allowed 11 (12, really) in one and a half seasons and just 96 shots. I'm sure jibbles is just screaming "small sample size" right now, but it might not be a bad idea to sub in Anderson any time the Avs are shorthanded, and make sure Budaj is between the pipes when the Avs have the PP.
Most interesting, though, would be the strikingly similar numbers shared by Craig Anderson and David Aebischer. The similarities don't stop with the numbers above, though. Both goalies were mid-round picks (3rd for Andy, 6th for Abby) and spent several years as a rock-solid backup before finally getting a shot to start. Both excelled when given the chance - Aebischer won 32 games for the Avalanche in 2003-2004 while sporting a .924 save percentage and 2.09 GAA. Andy, of course, had a similar breakout year in his first season as a starter, winning 38 games while notching a .917 save percentage and 2.64 GAA.
And here's where the worrisome part comes in, especially if your name rhymes with Haig Flanderson. The following season, Aebischer struggled (.900 save percentage, 2.98 GAA) and was traded at the deadline to the Canadiens. He never really regained his form and was out of the NHL just 40 games later (he's currently playing in the Swiss league). Anderson is also struggling mightily this year (.903 save percentage, 3.12 GAA). A year ago, Anderson appeared to have a stranglehold on the starting goaltending position for years in Colorado, much like Aebischer did in the summer of 2004. Could Anderson be moving elsewhere at the deadline? It's not a move without precedent.
Finally, it's worth noting that Aebischer played in 214 NHL games, with a .912 save percentage, 2.52 GAA and 13 shutouts. Anderson? 209 games, .912 save percentage, 2.82 GAA and 14 shutouts. Hmm, do they have ice girls in Switzerland?
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Numbers
Are really creepy sometimes.
Interesting work, DDC.
Remembering when the Colorado Avalanche used to fill opposing nets like Santa Claus.
Oh where, oh where did the offense go? Oh where, oh where can it be?
FREE HOLØS!!!!!!!!!!!!
That honor went to David Aebischer, the first season after Roy retired. Did not see that one coming.
You didn’t? Do you remember the D Aebischer played behind that first year? It was insane good, and Aebischer was too…until that SJ series where everything seemed to bounce in off his glove.
Are you suggesting coconuts migrate?
Still you gotta wonder how much a great D affects the SV% numbers. Sure, they can force the opponents to shoot the puck from ridiculous positions but on the other hand the other team can sit back and mainly wait for odd man rushes.
Call me ignorant but Rick Tabaracci once was an Av? Those numbers are almost as despicable as Foppa’s comeback attempts.
AVS. HEALTHY. WHEN.
December 8, 1999: Traded to Colorado by Atlanta for Shean Donovan, December 8, 1999.
he was taken next summer in the expansion draft, so I guess this was just to give them someone to expose?
I am the most humble blogger of all time
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Feb 3, 2011 7:58 AM MST up reply actions
Aebischer’s numbers started going down the year after the pad changes went into effect. Granted his 1st half and 2nd half (after the Olympic break) were vastly different, he was way better in the 2nd half. But after that trade to Montreal he was never the same. Heck, I was at an AHL game that he played when Phoenix sent him down. He gave up 4 goals in less than 10 minutes in the 1st period to the Wolves…never saw him again
Are you suggesting coconuts migrate?
Yep, that sounds like my memories of Swiss Cheese too.
damn you Aebischer.
maybe an internet pipe froze and burst
MHH: No Palce four Typos
Yea....
That was also the series that Forsberg had to literally, carry Hannan on his back the entire 6 games.
And then came the lock out….
I sat next to a guy at a game last season that had a Vitaly Kolesnik sweater. Never thought I’d see one of those. He did play like crazy for a game or two.
"Life's tough. It's even tougher if you're stupid." - John Wayne
He had that 12 rounder where he out dueled Brodeur
No lie, that Kolesnik kid could eat him some pie.
That is what we’re talking about – a pie eating contest, right?
Because Foppa at 50% is still better than 95% of the NHL.
I find it wholly unbelievable that anyone could out duel fat-broduer in an eating contest.
by MalachiConstant on Feb 3, 2011 12:23 PM MST up reply actions
Kyle Wellwood would beg to differ.
Each of my replies is a work of art, each more brilliant than the last.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Feb 3, 2011 2:21 PM MST up reply actions
Ha! First with the Fat Wellwood joke!!!!!
Each of my replies is a work of art, each more brilliant than the last.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Feb 3, 2011 2:23 PM MST up reply actions
Broduer is the self proclaimed best at everything. Including being fat.
by MalachiConstant on Feb 3, 2011 2:33 PM MST up reply actions
Did his mom tell him that?
Each of my replies is a work of art, each more brilliant than the last.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Feb 3, 2011 3:11 PM MST up reply actions
That jersey makes me swoon. It’s so damn awesome…
If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!
by Mike @ MHH on Feb 3, 2011 9:54 AM MST reply actions 3 recs
yep, that’s why I picked it. really miss it.
I am the most humble blogger of all time
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Feb 3, 2011 9:55 AM MST up reply actions
meh
never been a fan of any of our 3rds.
maybe an internet pipe froze and burst
MHH: No Palce four Typos
I’m sure the first one I’ll love is when they get the the old Rockie Hockey jerseys. Someone should make that happen.
Each of my replies is a work of art, each more brilliant than the last.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Feb 3, 2011 10:28 AM MST up reply actions
Talk to New Jersey…I believe they still own the rights to the Rockies name and logo.
The Avs defense is "air tight"....so tight it's gasping for air and turning purple.
Do they? Because I thought the Avs didn’t own the Nords stuff anymore?
Winnik is a fucking Win!
by Sandie Gauthier on Feb 3, 2011 1:29 PM MST up reply actions
The Avs don’t own the Nords stuff, iirc, the City of Quebec (or the NHL) owns the Nords. It was part of the sale agreement I believe. That way if Quebec were to get an NHL team again the could potentially use the name again.
The Devils (who were the Rockies) took the logo and name with them and at one time still owned them. I just don’t know if there is a time limit on that kind of thing…so unless there is a time frame, NJ would probably still have the rights to everything Rockies.
The Avs defense is "air tight"....so tight it's gasping for air and turning purple.
NHL has the Nordiques rights. The Rockies was part of the sale and unless the owner sells it back, it’s as good as his.
STANLEY CUP. WHEN.
Avalanche Breakaway: a blog of hockey goodness
by Cheryl Bradley on Feb 3, 2011 2:02 PM MST up reply actions
Got it, thanks :)
Winnik is a fucking Win!
by Sandie Gauthier on Feb 3, 2011 2:48 PM MST up reply actions
Ok, quick and unsubstantiated story -
My pops and I were talking about this very thing last night. He told me a story about how, after the Rockies were sold to New Jersey, the trademarked name “The Colorado Rockies” was made available for sale. Some random guy in Denver bought it, just sort of for kicks, and because he liked the name. After the baseball team was acquired in the early 90s, the owners got together quietly and made an offer on the name to the guy. The guy sold it to them for some decent amount of money and a bunch of memorabilia. This is the reason that the Colorado Rockies baseball team was able to be named that without having to deal with some sort of legal entaglement with the New Jersey Devils Club.
I believe that all of the jersey designs and everything remain the property of the NJD, it was only the name itself that they didnt have a use for.
Thanks Joe...
oh, another quick and unsubstantiated story -
That whole thing with naming the team The Colorado Xtreme was supposedly a faint to keep the name off of the team the Avalanche. My dad’s best friend worked for the law firm that brokered the sale of the Nordiques on the Denver end. The laywer accidentally let slip that Colorado was getting a hockey team a full 3 weeks before the sale actually went through. After a little pressing, they lawyer told my dad that it would be named the Avalanche. This happend a good couple months before that Xtreme announcement. Apparently, the lawyers and everyone wanted to hide the name until they were sure about trademarking the names, and intentionally threw off the entire city with the name “The Xtreme”, among the others.
Thanks Joe...
That’s kinda cool!
Winnik is a fucking Win!
by Sandie Gauthier on Feb 3, 2011 9:28 PM MST up reply actions
Why do you hate the Avalanche?
Avalanche Shutouts are a powerful Aphrodisiac
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Feb 3, 2011 12:27 PM MST up reply actions
because buddha is suxxorz?
i’ve never been a fan of jersey with the diagonal lettering, whether they are ours, the rangers, whatever, i just think it’s meh.
maybe an internet pipe froze and burst
MHH: No Palce four Typos
i don’t i just dislike poor design ok?!?!?! sob
maybe an internet pipe froze and burst
MHH: No Palce four Typos
So what you’re saying is you like the Red Wings jersey.
Colin Campbell doesn't have the balls to eject Semin.
hey hey hey hey, let’s not get personal here. Them’s fightin’ words..
maybe an internet pipe froze and burst
MHH: No Palce four Typos
I honestly can’t wait for the day when the Avs get a new home and away set. The unipron is growing a little long in tooth. I feel you on the actual disliking of the diagonal lettering across the chest, however, that 3rd was a very classy jersey and I really like it. I want one in my collection.
Colin Campbell doesn't have the balls to eject Semin.
To me, it is the color. That is a dark burgundy. Not a red or maroon, but a burgundy. It’s striking in that it isn’t used a lot, especially in the NHL. Same reason I like the Yotes current kit is because of the color scheme: simple and classy.
If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!
oh, i love the color, and would think it was a great jersey if it either had the big A or the Foot on the front. something other than Colorado. it’s just lazy.
and i agree, the Coyotes have a great scheme now, much much nicer than their earlier monstrosities. picked one of their white jerseys up when I was on vacation in Phx a couple years ago, and it’s a great jersey.
maybe an internet pipe froze and burst
MHH: No Palce four Typos
Lack of high quality mustaches.
Each of my replies is a work of art, each more brilliant than the last.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Feb 3, 2011 4:39 PM MST up reply actions
I want one with the 10th anniversary patch now. Damn you, DDC.
STANLEY CUP. WHEN.
Avalanche Breakaway: a blog of hockey goodness
by Cheryl Bradley on Feb 3, 2011 10:29 AM MST up reply actions
Loved Aebischer during his time as a starter. I remember the defense being really good at clearing out his rebounds during the 03/04 which helped him out a lot, but aside from that, he was pretty good all around.
Next season was a bit rough for him early on but he started getting things together around when he got traded. Sucks that he went downhill so quickly after that. :(
Because of this post, I’ll wear my Aebischer third out on the ice during pond hockey tomorrow.
Patty can’t really hear this post with 4 SC rings and 3 Conn Smythe trophies plugging his ears.
My fantasy hockey team sucks. But at least I'm not a Red Wing sellout.
PS: Very interesting analysis, btw. Abby had the unfortunate role of being the guy that followed a legend, and on a team that still had expectations through the roof. I thought he was pretty decent. Very interesting comparison between him and Andy. We need super Andy to emerge here soon or we won’t make the playoffs (duh).
My fantasy hockey team sucks. But at least I'm not a Red Wing sellout.
by Bob in Boulder on Feb 3, 2011 10:21 AM MST up reply actions
I wouldn’t be surprised if trading a goalie goes hand-in-hand with trading for a d-man. If the team is still in real playoff contention (big IF) come the deadline and the goalies are only “just getting by,” (tho how the former will happen if the latter is too, I dunno), there might be some movement in net. If the team’s out of contention or looking at a one-and-out deal, I’d expect them to stick for this season. Why trade pieces (like prospects and picks) away when you’re not certain yet whether they’ll be of value next season? Post 2011 training camp and pre-season might be a different story, of course.
STANLEY CUP. WHEN.
Avalanche Breakaway: a blog of hockey goodness
Even if the team is on the outside looking in in 4 weeks, as long as it’s not a tailspin, I still see them adding or shuffling pieces around the deadline.
That being said, with the deadline being in february, that really puts the sellers in great positioning, since there will be far fewer teams in a pure ‘sell’ mode which make for a better return on the players you’re selling. I think you’ll see a lot of playoff contenders trading among themselves trading from their stockpile of players they have a surplus in to other teams that have the same in a different position. IE a team, let’s call them the C. Avalanche, no let’s calll them the Colorado A. they have a stockpile of small, fast, defensively challenged, offensive defensemen…..wait no one wants that….
Each of my replies is a work of art, each more brilliant than the last.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Feb 3, 2011 11:01 AM MST up reply actions
Jimmy Howard is displeased that his name isn’t on your list…
Mile High Hockey: A Blog To Go And Get Lucky...
Matt Duchene... better at being Pavel Datsyuk than Pavel Datsyuk...
Aebischer Saves!
Jesus Saves!
By virtue of the transitive property, Aebischer is Jesus?!?!?
Geometry and Theology do not mix!
Because Foppa at 50% is still better than 95% of the NHL.
I knew it, I knew it
The Avalanche should never have traded him… :)
That trade to Montreal killed his career, I live in Switzerland and therefore saw him play a few times…and he has nothing to do with the avalanche Abby…

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