All Your Draft Picks Are Belong To Us
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Apr 9, 2011 8:32 PM MDT
in Avalanche News & Notes
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Well, your first one is, at least. The St Louis Blues defeated the Nashville Predators 2-0 tonight. With the win, they have clinched a 20th overall finish (before the win, Minnesota could have been in a position to pass them tomorrow). This, of course, is significant because it gives the Blues the 11th overall pick in the upcoming draft while they get the Avs 2nd rounder (32nd overall) in return. St Louis could have deferred until next season had that pick been in the top 10 (although we've speculated the Blues might have opted not to defer anyway). With the win, the only chance of a deferral now is if St Louis wins the draft lottery on Tuesday to move up 4 spots in the draft order. There is a 1.5% chance of this happening.
With that in mind, here's a look at the recent 11th overall picks:
- 2010 G Jack Campbell (Dallas)
- 2009 D Ryan Ellis (Nashville)
- 2008 F Kyle Beach (Chicago)
- 2007 F Brandon Sutter (Carolina)
- 2006 G Jonathan Bernier (Los Angeles)
- 2005 F Anze Kopitar (Los Angeles)
- 2004 F Lauri Tukonen (Los Angeles)
- 2003 F Jeff Carter (Philadelphia)
- 2002 D Keith Ballard (Buffalo)
- 2001 F Fredrik Sjostrom (Phoenix)
Not a bad list...but I still think I'd rather have Shattenkirk back.
Oh, and murfreed (or something) posted the latest ISS standings in a fanshot. Since I'm deleting that, I'll cannibalize his work here:
ISS top 20 rankings, March 2011:
1. Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan, F 4/12/93 L 6.00.5 170 Red Deer WHL
2. Larsson, Adam, RD 11/12/92 R 6.03 209 Skelleftea SweE
3. Landeskog, Gabriel, LW 11/23/92 L 6.00.25 205 Kitchener OHL
4. Couturier, Sean, C 12/7/92 L 6.04 195 Drummondville QMJHL
5. Murphy, Ryan, RD 3/31/93 R 5.10.25 168 Kitchener OHL
6. Strome, Ryan, C 7/11/93 R 6.00.25 183 Niagara OHL
7. Hamilton, Douglas, RD 6/17/93 R 6.04 190 Niagara OHL
8. Biggs, Tyler, RW 4/30/93 R 6.02 210 USA Under-18 USHL
9. Huberdeau, Jonathan C/L 6/4/93 L 6'1.25 168 Saint John QMJHL
10. Siemens, Duncan, LD 9/7/93 L 6.03 197 Saskatoon WHL
11. Jensen, Nicklas, F 3/6/93 L 6.02.25 188 Oshawa OHL
12. Saad, Brandon, LW 10/27/92 L 6.01.25 208 Saginaw OHL
13. Armia, Joel, RW 5/31/93 R 6.03 191 Assat FinE
14. Zibanejad, Mika, C 4/18/93 R 6.01.5 191 Djurgarden SweJE
15. McNeill, Mark, C 2/22/93 R 6.01 204 Prince Albert WHL
16. Khokhlachev, Alexandr F 9/9/93 L 5.10 188 Windsor OHL
17. Musil, David, LD 4/9/93 L 6.03.5 200 Vancouver WHL
18. Grimaldi, Rocco, C 2/8/93 R 5.06 163 USA Under-18 USHL
19. Oleksiak, Jamie (Fr.) , LD 12/21/92 L 6.07 244 Northeastern H.E.
20. Catenacci, Daniel, C 3/9/93 L 5.09.25 180 S.S. Marie OHL
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Dammit RWD! I just posted my fanpost! Altho to be sure I wasn’t making an error and about to make myself look like a total idiot, I counted like 20 times to be sure of the standings. I’ll go ahead and blame that. :)
Thanks Joe... Thanks Peter....
believe me, I did the same thing
I am the most humble blogger of all time
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Apr 9, 2011 8:58 PM MDT up reply actions
LOLZ
I also counted to 20 a bazillion times last night but was just finishing up a 14 hr day of studying so didn’t trust myself enough to post
Perhaps Murphy falls to the Avs and we won’t be wishing for Shatty back.
One would think that one of the top 8 falls. If not, then they can nab Puempel after running and tripping over themselves as they race to the podium.
Languishing for Landeskog
Personally, I think Good Elliott is going to make us forget Shatty pretty quickly after he makes the Avs.
by ExiledAmongYou on Apr 9, 2011 8:44 PM MDT up reply actions
Yup. I am hoping for that too. Hopeful for some good Barrie action, too.
Thanks Joe... Thanks Peter....
Or…just nab Larsson, have the future defense set, and start debating forwards at 11.
by Pacifier Night on Apr 9, 2011 8:48 PM MDT up reply actions
Where’d Wilson go? I’d put Wilson in somewhere between 6th-8th on that list…and Liles, let’s not forget Liles.
Liles is UFA. If they had a list like that, they might think he’s expendable. Also, this was kind of a musing for 2-3 years out, not necessarily for next year. I’m not sure that Elliott and Barrie will be able to make the jump to the NHL right away, for instance. Would Larsson be able to? I dunno. But think about that lineup, with 2-3 years experience under its belt. I wouldn’t be sad about that at all.
Thanks Joe... Thanks Peter....
I hear Larsson is very ready, at least for a defensemen. I would imagine something like a Shattenkirk situation with an early call-up.
by Pacifier Night on Apr 9, 2011 9:05 PM MDT up reply actions
Liles has one more year
I am the most humble blogger of all time
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Apr 9, 2011 9:07 PM MDT up reply actions
Yeah I knew that, but I mean that he might be expendable for trade this upcoming year because it will be the last year of his contract.
Thanks Joe... Thanks Peter....
I don’t know, if they couldn’t move him at this deadline I have a tough time picturing him moving in the summer. can’t rule it out though, I guess
I am the most humble blogger of all time
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Apr 9, 2011 9:10 PM MDT up reply actions
I wouldnt think he would really leave in the summer, but if the team gets a good scope at Elliott, Barrie, and (possibly) Larsson, it could change their minds pretty early in the season. If another team with some playoff hopes had a Dman go down in October, and wanted a replacement quickly… Well, I wouldn’t rule it out.
I still hope he signs an extension and gets the C, but thats just me.
Thanks Joe... Thanks Peter....
I bet he gets lots of C already, to be honest
I am the most humble blogger of all time
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Apr 9, 2011 9:18 PM MDT up reply actions 3 recs
rec’d
"My name is still Cameron Awesome, and I still play defense, yo! (Though, admitedly, I really do need to learn how to fight.)"
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by Cheryl Bradley on Apr 10, 2011 8:21 AM MDT up reply actions
I see what you did there, and I approve.
Jonas Holøs- Putting the Ø in defense since 2010!
by niwotsblessing on Apr 10, 2011 8:22 AM MDT up reply actions
I expect that he will have that too. Elliott and Barrie will run 2-way contracts, so they can be called up / sent down later on the season, after getting their feet wet in the AHL. As to Larsson… I like to reserve judgement until I actually see them on the ice. I havent seen the kid at all, except for some cherry-picked youtube vids.
Thanks Joe... Thanks Peter....
I heard him and Landeskog are the only two players that are really ready to jump into the NHL right away (if the experts were right)
Also, apparently Larsson is supposed to be a year ahead of what Hedman was in his first year…if that makes any sense…but who knows…either or and I’d be happy.
If Larsson can grow into our Suter and Johnson can grow into a Weber/Pronger, I’m good with either.
I love it!
If nothing else, it improves the quality of our offseason conversations. I don’t know about other folks, but I am looking forward to a long and interesting offseason. Beats the hell out of the tripe that was ’10-11.
Could be some very intriguing prospects at #11. Gives us some trade possibilities, too…Hmmm.
On an interesting note...
What if the Avs drafted Landeskog?
Would you prefer EJ and Landeskog OR Larsson and Stewart? If The trade wasn’t made, they would have clearly been eyeing Larsson but now they have the chance to create a different dynamic duo.
Languishing for Landeskog
Should the lottery factor into our picks, the following pairs of picks are possible. Overall percentages of the given outcomes are given.
picks 1 and 11 – we win lottery with second pick (18.8%)
picks 2 and 11 – 30th wins lottery (25%)
picks 2 and 12 – teams 24th-21st or 19th-17th win lottery (17%)
picks 3 and 12 – teams 28th-25th win lottery (37.7%)
pick 2 – we win lottery with St Louis pick and proceed to lose it to St. Louis (1.5%)
pick 2 – we win lottery with St Louis pick and proceed to lose it to St. Louis (1.5%)
Is this possible?
Thanks Joe... Thanks Peter....
i believe so, the wording I’ve seen given states that if the pick is in the top 10, St Louis can opt to defer until next year. If they win the lottery, would their pick not be in the top 10 now? Though, I could be wrong here.
Either way, I’d like it more if the language tied their pick deferral to their place in the standings, not where they eventually pick.
I think you have some mistakes there. Do not know about the % as I am to lasy to look at that but it should be like this:
picks 1 and 11 – we win lottery with second pick
picks 2 and 11 – 30th or teams 24th-21st wins lottery
picks 2 and 12 – teams 19th-17th win lottery
picks 3 and 11 – teams 28th-25th win lottery
pick 2 – we win lottery with St Louis pick and proceed to lose it to St. Louis
picks 3 and 12 – can not happend
Thanks for catching this. I made a mistake assuming that moving up in the lottery would push back all the picks behind you, not just for the four slots that you can jump. I double checked my info and here are the %’s.
39.2% – picks 3, 11
38.1% – picks 2, 11
18.8% – picks 1, 11
2.4% – picks 2, 12
1.5% – pick 2
After the first round, Avs wont draft again until the 4th round; STL will have the Avs second and NYI has the Avs third.
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by Angélique C. Murray on Apr 9, 2011 8:59 PM MDT reply actions
I saw that. I can’t remember, was the 3rd rounder part of the Bournival deal last draft?
It would be nice to recoup a pick in one of those rounds. Yip? Stoa? It only takes one GM.
by Pacifier Night on Apr 9, 2011 9:03 PM MDT up reply actions
It was traded for the Isles 2010 fourth (Stephen Silas).
Colorado Avalanche Prospects: For daily news on the future of the Colorado Avalanche!
by Angélique C. Murray on Apr 9, 2011 9:04 PM MDT up reply actions
Interesting. Silas is way off my radar at the moment. I wonder how he will look in a couple years.
Thanks Joe... Thanks Peter....
His team, Belleville (OHL) was really bad this year; so his numbers took a dip from his draft year.
Colorado Avalanche Prospects: For daily news on the future of the Colorado Avalanche!
by Angélique C. Murray on Apr 9, 2011 9:07 PM MDT up reply actions
this is why I think the Avs are WAY better than we think. They all just got stuck on a bad team this year.
I am the most humble blogger of all time
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Apr 9, 2011 9:11 PM MDT up reply actions 2 recs
Oh, no doubt they are a much better team than the record shows…can’t expect them to challenge for a playoff spot when they have around 500 man games lost.
I’m sure the experts that had them pegged for this spot already had that considered…/sarcasm.
Healthy, better goalie, baam, we’re challenging for the playoffs!
it also means that the only offers they can make to other team’s RFAs are below $933,000 or above $7.3 million.
because, they were totally going to poach some RFAs
I am the most humble blogger of all time
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Apr 9, 2011 9:04 PM MDT up reply actions
The Colorado Avalanche traded their 2011 third round pick to the New York Islanders for a 2010 fourth round pick (Stephen Silas). Per AvsDB.
Avs win. When?
Actually they can make plenty of offers as they will come after this year’s draft making the needed picks 2012. They should have all of their 2012 picks
Languishing for Landeskog
oh phew. the offseason is saved!
I am the most humble blogger of all time
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Apr 9, 2011 10:33 PM MDT up reply actions
They don’t have their fourth rounder (PHX for Winnik), but yes the picks necessary for offer sheets remain; not that the Avs will throw out an offer sheet.
Colorado Avalanche Prospects: For daily news on the future of the Colorado Avalanche!
by Angélique C. Murray on Apr 9, 2011 11:14 PM MDT up reply actions
Thanks for the deletion and the shoutout, I went to take it down and was confused when it was already gone. Thought that maybe I had dreamed the whole thing or something. i am very sleep deprived tonight. Thanks again! :)
Thanks Joe... Thanks Peter....
all good!
I am the most humble blogger of all time
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Apr 9, 2011 9:12 PM MDT up reply actions
“2004 F Lauri Tukonen (Los Angeles)”
Who?
Patrit19: Languishing for Landeskog since 2011
Fuck the red wings indeed
Thats What Sherman Said
by patrit19 on Apr 9, 2011 9:14 PM MDT via mobile reply actions
Huzzah for Wikipedia!
Lauri Tukonen was selected by the Los Angeles Kings as their first pick, 11th overall, in the 2004 NHL Entry Draft. He started his pro career with the Blues in the Finnish SM-liiga. During the 2003–04 season, he was the youngest player in the league, at 17 years old.
He then played for the Manchester Monarchs in AHL, earning a promotion when he was recalled to the Los Angeles Kings on February 21, 2007, and played his first NHL game a day later against the Vancouver Canucks. He was sent back to Manchester on February 23 and was then recalled again on February 17, 2008, where he was later sent back on February 21. In March 2008 he became an alternate captain of the Monarchs.
On July 21, 2008, he was traded to the Dallas Stars in exchange for Richard Clune.1 He played in his native Finland during the start of the 2008–09 season with Ilves Tampere. Five months later on November 30, 2008, he was traded by the Stars to the Tampa Bay Lightning for Andrew Hutchinson.2 He currently plays for Rauman Lukko of the SM-liiga.
Thanks Joe... Thanks Peter....
Honestly that’s about a fifty percent chance of getting a great player. Not too bad considering we already have a top two which is almost guranteed. We could easily get another top line foward and defenseman or a future franchise goalie (should Pickard not work out).
Holøs. Helping keep scores 1-Ø since 2010. ©
All the goalies are ranked second round or later. In all honesty, there is a logjam of forwards around #11… unless Murphy or Hamilton fall. The Avs may go off the board on the pick or move it in a trade for more picks or a player. If not, I would look at Puempel, Siemens, and Biggs in that order.
Languishing for Landeskog
Is it? It might have been better to get it next year. But I guess we wont know for another 12 months.
Thanks Joe... Thanks Peter....
Maybe but the Avs have a shot at a very good player at #11. #11 this year should net a better player (if they go forward) than #21 next year even in a deeper draft. But perhaps StL tumbles next year and they draft top 5? Think of it as karma for lucking out in the Foote trade. Columbus could have drafted Duchene so no need to press our luck.
Languishing for Landeskog
On the other hand, St Louis hasn’t looked too bad with Stewie and Shats, there is a very good chance they are even better next year. Personally i think this is the best outcome for the Avs, if St Louis had finished 9th or 10th i think they probably would have deffered based on them believing, and them showing that they believe, that they will be better next year. This way they don’t even get a choice.
Don't forget
The Avs have to give up their 2nd round this year (pick #32) which is so close to the 1st round it’s like giving up a 1st.
Would it have been better if the Avs had received a #20 pick next year while giving up a #42 in the second round? I’m not sure which would be better. Of course, this assumes that both clubs improve next year.
This is exciting! Especially in comparison to the Avs season!
I can’t wait until June 24th!Also – Anze was 11th? Holy cow! I thought he would have gone higher than that! Although that might explain his jersey number. Never really stopped to think about that.
And I love the title of this thread. I can’t help but read it with a strong Russian Accent.
In Soviet Russia, thread title giggle at you!
Just a Colorado girl in Montana who <3s the Avs.
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The Number Zero, probably tastes like chicken.
by Tempestuous Binary on Apr 10, 2011 12:55 AM MDT up reply actions
I have no idea where that’s from, but it make me smile. I approve.
Just a Colorado girl in Montana who <3s the Avs.
it’s an old and not-all-that funny internet meme.
I am the most humble blogger of all time
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Apr 10, 2011 6:17 AM MDT up reply actions
This always literally makes me lol
by Pinchy The Lobster on Apr 10, 2011 10:13 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
It started with a bad translation from a Japanese video game.
Datsyuk may have done it first, but he learned it from Peter Forsberg.
Thanks for everything Foppa!
by Americanario on Apr 10, 2011 10:48 AM MDT up reply actions
Not all that funny!?!
Did somebody set up you the bomb?
I make music. I don't think it's despicable, do you?
Another thought
I just posted something like this over in the Foote thread, but it’s probably more relevant here.
With the 11th overall pick pretty much locked up at this point, the offseason is probably going to be a lot quieter than we expect it to be. Yes, we’ll still need at least one goalie via trade or UFA, but most of our other needs (top pairing defenseman, top 6 power forward) are almost certainly going to be taken care of at the draft. We might luck out and see Sherman sign a veteran player, but I highly doubt it. Chances are good that the “Building from Within” motto will hold true for this summer, and probably the next.
But that may not be as terrible as it might seem. When all of our guys return from concussion leave, we’ll have a pretty fearsome team with plenty more NHL ready guys down in Eire. I’d much rather see KSE look at improving the boards in the Pepsi Center and taking other steps to reduce injury than bringing in a bunch of new players that we, quite honestly, probably don’t even need long-term (even if they’d be nice to have).
Just a Colorado girl in Montana who <3s the Avs.
Trade the 11th rounder and Tyson Barrie to Vancouver for Schneider… there, I said it!
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Vancouver would be so pissed if they fell for that. “What, there is no 11th round? @#$#! COLORADO!”
by mcarson01 on Apr 10, 2011 8:56 AM MDT up reply actions 3 recs
Karma's a bitch. She charges interest.
2010-2011 Colorado Avalanche: Hugging the cap floor and waiting on their revenue share, because hey, billionaires need welfare too!
Well I suppose after a season like this, at least here’s something to look forward to.
I think this is really intriguing because after Hishon last year, we know the Avs have their own board and aren’t afraid to make picks that might surprise some media and blogger types.
In my best case scenario, they grab RNH or Landeskog early, then Murphy falls to them at 11. Can’t wait until June!
No soup for you!
If Murphy falls that far… The Avs will walk away with possibly 2 of the top 5 players from this draft. The Rangers getting knocked out in the OHL playoffs may be beneficial in seeing a drop in Murphy’s ranking.
Languishing for Landeskog
It would be great to grab Kitchener’s two best players. I doubt that Kitchener’s playoff performance would mean Murphy dropping, though. In every Kitchener game I saw this season, Murphy (along with Landeskog) was a standout. It really depends on what teams in front of the Avs want.
Patrit19: Languishing for Landeskog since 2011
Fuck the red wings indeed
Thats What Sherman Said
Unfortunately both NJ & Columbus desire PMDs. I can’t see him slipping past both of those teams.
Languishing for Landeskog
After the top 4...
Ottawa- Strome?
Atlanta- could see them reaching a little and nabbing Saad or Biggs
Columbus- Hamilton or Murphy
NJ- Murphy or Hamilton
Boston- hard to tell but if ATL doesn’t reach for the two big guys, one may go here
Minny- Armia?
Siemens could enter the top 10 with either Jersey or Boston. Huberdeau may make it out of the top 10 if Boston and ATL don’t nab him. I know he has moved up a lot but there is a chance that he slips slightly. Players like Jensen and Puempel should for sure still be available at #11. probably unlikely the Avs go with Zibs or any other Euro playing overseas due to limited viewing and other factors.
Languishing for Landeskog
And for anyone thinking ATL may not surprise us all… Look at all the players they have been trading for. Take a look at last year’s draft even. Of the 8 Fs/Ds they drafted, only Burmistrov was under 6’3". They clearly have a set plan as to who to bring into the organization.
Languishing for Landeskog
In Rick Pracey We Trust.
Jonas Holøs- Putting the Ø in defense since 2010!
In the lottery a pick can only move up 4 spots and down 1 I believe. So 3-12 would be the worst case, 1-8 would be best. Assuming nothing changes I hope for Landeskog-Hamilton/Siemens. We need some size. Probably no center, we already have Stastny/Duchene/O’Reilly/Mcclement/Hishon. Hopefully we get some luck in this draft, we deserve some with all these injuries!
I have seen some mock drafts with Dougie Hamilton falling that far… which would be great
Last place. When.
by Cole D Hamilton on Apr 10, 2011 4:48 PM MDT reply actions
We also need to remember that if players start falling and the Avs look to have a shot at one… Other teams will start offering the farm for a chance at a player they really like. So there is a chance that we hear that a trade has been made before pick 11. will be interesting to hear potential scenarios that may be in play based around that pick.
Languishing for Landeskog
Top 2 Choices
I was just reading another one of the NHL.com draft report things. Here are the highlights.
RNH:
- BEST ON ICE VISION SINCE GRETZKY (according to guys high up in the Oiler’s organization)
- Works just as hard on D as he does on offense
- Consistently beats other players 1 on 1
- Quick learning curve
- Will just continue to get better
Landeskog:
- Most NHL ready (which we could use right now)
- Team Captain
- Mature
- MIGHT NOT BE THE BEST PLAYER 3 YEARS FROM NOW
I’m torn now. RNH has now been compared to Sakic and Gretzky. Anyone getting that praise is worth looking into, even if we are already bursting at the seams with good centers. But Landeskog is more the player we need right now – and he can play right now. But I’m greedy. If we’re going to have a top 3 draft choice, I want a guy that will be leading his class every year from now until he retires (I’ve been spoiled by Duchene). Is Landeskog that choice? He is definitely the best short-term solution, but is he the best for us in the long run?
What do you guys think?
Just a Colorado girl in Montana who <3s the Avs.
The weird thing is that RNH was born, and grew up in the same town that Sakic grew up in
Patrit19: Languishing for Landeskog since 2011
Fuck the red wings indeed
Thats What Sherman Said
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