Improving in 2012. Special teams top priority.
by Dario on Jul 25, 2011 11:11 AM MDT
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If it's not obvious to everyone by now, the Avs were great last year but if it wasn't for being so unlucky they would have been a lot better. Sources close to the situation have told me personally that Liles, Stewart, Shattenkirk, Foote, Budaj, Elliot, Hannan and Dupuis all got together for a night at the Denver Art Museum and were blackened with the curse of Tutankhamen. Thankfully they are all gone and we can now get back to playing honest hockey.
I know most of you will scoff the idea, but let us pretend for a moment that luck played a minor factor. Let's go with a real crazy theory that the ability to play hockey played a more prominent role in the Avalanche outcome.
You know what killed the Avalanche last year besides the ladder someone left open over the lockeroom door all season? Special teams. That's not a big surprise considering how poorly the Avalanche did last year. Most categories will not be all that favorable. However, what you are about to see is rated H for HOLY FOPPA the Avs Special teams sucked were unlucky!
All credit goes to James O'Brien of Pro Hockey Talk. Details of the 2010-11 NHL season and team's specialty team Plus/Minus can be seen here.
One of the most popular NHL statistics is powerplay and penalty kill %. So if the Avalanche go 1 for 10 on the powerplay they have a powerplay percentage of 10%. The same stat is produced for the other side of the fence on the penalty kill. This statistic does a good job of measuring the various NHL teams relative efficiency on the man advantage or shortage. It does not however, give a good measurement of how good a power play or penalty kill team they are. A team that goes 1 for 3 has an efficient powerplay percentage of 33%. But the opponent that went 2 for 7 is not only scoring more goals but is keeping the other team in their own end more and controlling the game to a greater degree.
Here is the best and worst of the 2011 season in special teams plus/minus.
Stat categories: special teams plus/minus, power play plus/minus, PP opportunities, PP goals, shorthanded goals allowed, penalty kill plus/minus, times shorthanded, PP goals allowed and SH goals scored.
|
Team |
ST +/- |
PP+/- |
PP Opp |
PPG |
SHGA |
PK +/- |
TS |
PPGA |
SHG |
|
VAN |
31 |
70 |
296 |
72 |
2 |
-39 |
312 |
45 |
6 |
|
COL |
-29 |
38 |
265 |
49 |
11 |
-67 |
314 |
75 |
8 |
So, both teams were shorthanded at about the same rate (TS) but the Avalanche gave up 30 more goals. OK then. So clearly the Avalanche need to work on the X's and O's of special teams right? Adam Deadmarsh will need to reinvent those areas for certain. Goaltending will obviously have to improve (how could it not?). The entire team will have to give plenty of attention to improving all facets of special teams in camp.
But unfortunately there's more. Not only were the Avs extremely bad unlucky on special teams, but they were completely upside down in the game of being short-handed. Here are the top five and bottom five speacial teams opportunities in the NHL in 2011.
Stat categories: special teams opportunity plus/minus, power play opportunities and time shorthanded.
|
Team |
ST Opp +/- |
PP Opp |
TS |
|
CAR |
74 |
346 |
272 |
|
TOR |
51 |
326 |
275 |
|
CGY |
36 |
318 |
282 |
|
TBL |
34 |
336 |
302 |
|
NYR |
33 |
290 |
257 |
xxxxxxx
|
BUF |
-21 |
279 |
300 |
|
WSH |
-36 |
263 |
299 |
|
MTL |
-37 |
290 |
327 |
|
OTT |
-37 |
257 |
294 |
|
COL |
-49 |
265 |
314 |
That wasn't even close. So, not only do you have a team that frankly sucksis extremely unlucky on special teams, but they aren't even in the ballpark in getting those special teams opportunities. What that kind of statistic leads to is a massive descrepancy in puck possession and lottery draft picks. Even the worst team in the league isn't as upside down as the Avalanche are here. If it were not for the even strength prowess of the Avalanche they would have smoked the Oilers for the first pick in the draft.
With the acquisitions of O'Bryne, O'Brien to accompany O'Reilly the Avs have made clear moves go get more Irish players to improve their luck. I suspect that may not be the silver bullet to next season but maybe I'm not totally up to speed with O'Corsi. Will the remade defense, new goaltending or even new assistant coach help solve these horrific results?
MileHighHockey.com is a fan community, allowing members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Colorado Avalanche and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editors of MileHighHockey.com.
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I’ll hit the details later, but as the season went on it was very obvious that one of our problems was the differential between being on the power play and being shorthanded. It was one of the widest gaps in the league.
For some reason, there were a couple of teams that handled that situation really well (Pittsburgh comes to mind, for some reason).
I’m trying to think of a good reason why this happened…and my first thought is that it has to do with the fact that we didn’t have the puck as often as our opponents did, and that when you don’t have the puck, you sometimes resort to penalties to get it back. Easier to keep possession than take possession, maybe?
I’d say that our small defense hurt us because of its general inability to knock opponents off the puck, except that one of our worst offenders was Ryan O’Byrne, who took a penalty in 26 games this year. (Biggest surprise from that was that Stats took a penalty in 21 games this past season.)
You mentioned Deader having to fix the special teams – are you pretty sure he’s the guy? I know it makes sense that Sly handles the D, being a former defenseman, but I just wondered if a coach will turn over the special teams to a rookie assistant coach.
by Dan Winkler on Jul 25, 2011 3:07 PM MDT reply actions
Biggest surprise from that was that Stats took a penalty in 21 games this past season
That doesn’t surprise me at all. By the end of the season, that was one of my biggest complaints about him. Stupid penalties.
The Colorado Avalanche: much more hugerer and depthier than last year
by Cheryl Bradley on Jul 25, 2011 3:47 PM MDT up reply actions
but as the season went on it was very obvious that one of our problems was the differential between being on the power play and being shorthanded. It was one of the widest gaps in the league.
Even worse was the difference in the PK on the road (81.3% – 19th in the league) and at home (71.1% – 30th).
Datsyuk may have done it first, but he learned it from Peter Forsberg.
Thanks for everything Foppa!
Footer: We'll miss seeing you clear the riff raff off your lawn.
I never understood this stat. What the hell were they doing on the road that they couldn’t at home? And it’s counter-intuitive. You’d think that they’d be better at home.
The Colorado Avalanche: much more hugerer and depthier than last year
by Cheryl Bradley on Jul 25, 2011 3:46 PM MDT up reply actions
i think it’s just one of those small sample size outliers. statistical oddities crop up all the time, it’s the nature of the beast. like this: http://xkcd.com/882/
the PK needs to be fixed, and we need to fix this differential too, I agree. I’m of the opinion the PK percentage should improve a lot with all the changes made, but the differential? I’m not sure I can point to root cause beyond “holy shit we had a terrible D.”
if it was simply how bad we were on defense, that should improve. but I worry it might be a coaching/schematic issue, and that may not change.
our mediocre power play
could have been because our defensemen couldn’t hit the net with their shots, but EJ can, and so can Ferris, hopefully they can next year too.
Special teams have been an issue for a long time. The Avs seem to have this idea that their overload umbrella PP and incredibly passive PK box will one day magically work, and it just doesn’t. It has to be an organizational thing. It’s been the same with 3 coaches, and I suspect it’s taught in Lake Erie, too.
The PK system needs a kick in the ass and a 5 Hour Energy. The PP needs a player that will shoot the Damn puck.
Low-cut blouses are looked down upon in this establishment.
by wtnelson on Jul 25, 2011 11:06 PM MDT via mobile reply actions
incredibly passive PK box
2009-2010 featured a very aggressive PK IIRC. Watching Gali and Radar was a thing of beauty.
The Colorado Avalanche: much more hugerer and depthier than last year
by Cheryl Bradley on Jul 26, 2011 8:37 AM MDT up reply actions
You're right
They were definitely more aggressive on the puck. This is one of the things that I think Dater is 100% correct on – when it comes to the PK, aggressive is absolutely the way to go. Unless you’re playing against the Avs, then you can just watch them pass it around for 2 minutes.
Low-cut blouses are looked down upon in this establishment.
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