FanPost

2011-2012 Colorado Avalanche results

Seeing that time travel hasn't been discovered (or has it?) I went ahead and expanded on an earlier project. In this version I have taken all of the forwards and defensemen (for fun I have included something similar with goalies below this) and reviewed their past three NHL seasons and have provided an average of goals scored and games played. Some players will have an occasional off year or injury filled year so players with three seasons of play have their lowest GPG average dropped from the calculations. Something similar is also done in regards to calculating average games played. Below you will find 14 forwards and 7 defensemen that make up the current Avs (no rookies are included). Listed next to each one is the average games played over the seasons calculated and the goals they would score (on average) based on that number of games. There are 984 games available in the 12 forward spots and 492 games available in the 6 defensemen spots (all based on 82 games in a season) so after the top 12 forwards and top 6 defensemen are slotted into the games available, McCleod, Lindstrom, and Cumiskey have their calculations done due to being reserve forwards. To cap it all off is the total goals for the team.

 

Galiardi (15g/70)  Stastny (22g/78)  Jones (22g/59)

Mueller (18g/76)  Duchene (26g/81)  Hejduk (27g/77)

Yip (16g/71)  O'Reilly (11g/78)  Kobasew (17g/66)

Porter (13g/74)  McClement (12g/82)  Winnik (9/77)

Lindstrom (8g/44)  McCleod (7g/51)

 

Quincey (5/73)  Johnson (9g/78)

Hejda (5g/80)  O'Bryrne (1g/70)

Wilson (3g/64)  Hunwick (7g/75)

Cumiskey (5g/52)

 

TOTAL AVALANCHE GOALS: 258

 

of course this is a young team so the thought is that a lot of these players will be more productive than this but it still is interesting to see the team goal scoring potential based on the players' average scoring (and games) over the past few years. 

 

I used a similar idea with goaltending. Unfortunately Varlamov was still working to grab the starter reigns so it is hard to do the "average games" approach with him (or even JSG). Even though Varlamov was injured last year, he was still available to start 26 games that he did not. That means he was injured for just over half the games he could have started. If he were to continue to be injured (in just over half the games he could start) he would play in 40 games this season with JSG picking up the other 42 (if he remained healthy). Based on a similar approach with the Goals Per Game average above, I was able to calculate the average Wins Per Game and OTL Per Game for both Varlamov (.59/.22) and JSG (.38/.13). The final numbers look like this:

 

Varlamov 24-7-9

Giguere 16-20-6

 

SEASON TOTAL: 40W-27L-15OTL for 95 points

 

Based on this season, that would be good for #10 in the West and the 14th overall pick in the draft. Anyways, just a fun little project to use stats to see what could happen. 

MileHighHockey.com is a fan community, allowing members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Colorado Avalanche and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editors of MileHighHockey.com.

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