Colorado Avalanche Blogger Roundtable Day 5: Varlamov & the Lottery
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Sep 9, 2011 7:00 AM MDT
in Avalanche Blogger Roundtable
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How worried are you that the 1st round pick we traded to Washington for Semyon Varlamov will end up as a lottery pick?
I was a little surprised by the responses here. Avalanche bloggers tend to be a fairly pessimistic bunch, but only a few are overly concerned.
Nic Zamora, Avaholics Anonymous: Terrified. I've had the pleasure of watching a lot of Varly over the past couple seasons. He was brilliant in the playoffs but collapsed in that game 7 against the Pens. There have also been the injuries which pop up every season. If any of those injuries happen again this season, we're screwed. Hopefully he can find a way to stay healthy because when he is healthy, he is one of the top goalies in the league.
Derek Bell, Mile High Hockey: That is definitely a concern for me. You can look as far back as just 2 years ago when Toronto traded it's 1st round pick to Boston in the Phil Kessel deal (that pick ended up being Tyler Seguin) to see how that can backfire on a team. Now that's not to say that Toronto be a completely different team with Seguin. They certainly would be a lot better off if they had a player of Seguin's caliber in their lineup to play alongside some of the other young talent in their lineup.
Angélique Murray, Colorado Avalanche Prospects, Mile High Hockey & Chicks Who Give A Puck: The Avs are betting that potential will be realized and very quickly with the acquisition of Varlamov. There is no doubting the risk considering the depth of the 2012 draft class. The Avs inability of developing their own goaltenders has put them in this position of having to sacrifice so much. It's hard not to be worried.
The rest of the group is all shiny and happy at the moment. Mostly.
Stephen Crociata, Mile High Sticking and SBNation New York: I do not expect the Avs 2012 draft pick to fall into the lottery but this does not calm my nerves. The 2011-12 draft is stacked and either way the Avalanche will quite possibly be haunted by that pick for years to come.
Mike @ MHH, Mile High Hockey: Not very.
Austin, Avs Chill Zone: Not worried at all, to be honest. If anything, it's a #10 pick or higher. I don't think the Avalanche will win the west, but everyone who says it will be a lottery pick (Washington fans) doesn't pay enough attention to the team. A perfect example is the Avs team from two years ago... jumped from drafting 3rd overall to making the playoffs. I think the Avalanche will surprise a lot of teams again this year that underestimate them, just as they did that year.
Andi D, Mile High Hockey: With any move made before the season even begins, there's always going to be risk involved, especially when it includes a first round pick in a draft that's supposed to be very good. However, I think the Avs, if they can stay healthy, are at least a bubble team next year. I'd like to think they'll make the playoffs, but it's hard to tell at this point. So much is riding on new players - we don't know how quickly our rookies will adjust to the NHL or how all our new signings will mesh with the team. But even if we are as injured as we were last year, due to our off-season moves to increase our organizational depth, I still doubt we'll finish with anything within the top 5. I could see us giving up around the 15th overall pick, but if Varly continues to develop and grow into an amazing goalie over the next 3-5 years, I think the deal could still be a steal on our part. It's just too early to tell.
Geoff Rosenthal, The Avs Factor: Not worried at all. I found that the best way to stay relaxed is to not think about it at all.
Mike Chambers, Denver Post: I like the risk.
Aaron Musick, HockeyBuzz: The problem with that is the number of "ifs" involved in this season. If Mueller is healthy, if Varlamov plays well, if Duchene becomes the center he was drafted to be, if Landeskog's talent is for sure, if Giguere can stay healthy, that pick is unlikely to be a lottery pick. This team is better than they showed last season but injuries and poor goaltending killed them. The Avs will need to use their bigger, tougher defense to their advantage and concentrate on stopping goals, as much as they do scoring them. If they are healthy and Varlamov plays like a man who has a fire lit under him, that Avs should be in the playoff picture all year long.
Norbert from Austria, Eurolanche: How worried will show in the course of the season. If Avs are on the way to maybe reach the playoffs because of good goaltending of Varlamov, the Caps would not get a better pick than Nr. 14. The first-round pick will just hurt, if the Avs should finish as one of the last five teams in the NHL again, but I don't expect the Avs to finish again in this area.
Sandie Gauthier, Mile High Hockey: Surprisingly unworried. I don't see the Avalanche doing the spiral that they did last year. The team made some big changes, especially with the change in goaltending. The loss of Liles is going to sting, but they added some good solid guys and I think they'll be surprising people once again. If the team can stay healthy, which is always a big issue for the Avalanche, they'll be in the playoff hunt.
Jaye Horbay, Mile High Sticking: Ask me on June 30th 2012. Right now I'm just hoping I don't run across any Caps fans.
Cheryl Bradley, Mile High Hockey & Avalanche Breakaway: I'm not worried at all about that pick. This team has more depth and more talent than its 2010-2011 counterpart, and the Avs have only had two top-10 picks in the history of the team. It's not like lottery picks are common-place for Colorado. Moreover, the players have something to prove. Both Erik Johnson and Semyon Varlamov have stated publicly that they want to show the league and their former teams that they are top-level talent. Many clubs are going to underestimate this team much in the same way they did with the 2009-2010 team. However, this is a stronger team, a bigger team and a more seasoned team. Barring the injury curse (of course), I don't expect to see this team finish anywhere lower than 10th in the West.
AJ Haefele, Mile High Hockey: I'm more worried it ends up being Nail Yakupov than a lottery pick in general. After an entire off-season of the NHL, and in particular obnoxious Caps fans ignorant to anything Avalanche-related, praising George McPhee up and down for his work in acquiring an uncertain long-term asset (still ignoring the second rounder) from a team guaranteed to finish in the bottom 4 of the league again, I'm ready to see the Avs, and particularly Varly, shut up the people who can't seem to look at the trade from the Avalanche perspective. That people seem to see only the first round pick in the trade and totally overlook that we filled by far our biggest need, which significantly upgraded our team instantly, is kind of amusing. If Varly is on, the Avalanche should be nowhere near the basement they finished in last season.
Mike Verminski, Put It On Ice: I honestly don't care where that pick ends up. Washington isn't in our conference and we got a goalie out of the deal so it is what it is. Where that pick ends up doesn't really affect Colorado...other than we lost a first round pick.
Ryan Boulding, The Avalanche Guild: I'm very nearly supremely confident that this season won't find the Avalanche with a lottery pick. This team is back to being a wildcard. The forward core is largely the same but the defensive unit has had a facelift and the club now has two very different goaltenders to bolster their foundation. I expect the Avalanche to be more like the unpredictable team from 2009-10 than the self-destructing, woe is us team from last season. The boys also have something to prove now after all the negativity about them and you can bet that nobody, including Varlamov, wants to see Washington get any advantage from the picks that were offered.
Matt Muzia, SBN Denver: On a scale of 1-10? About a 2. The Avalanche were a pretty decent (though flawed) team for the first half of the season and faltered for two months due to various distractions (Forsberg, lack of leadership, injuries, inability to defend). With even okay goaltending, they would have been a fringe playoff contender. The 2011-2012 roster is deeper, has more talent, and a much more balanced construction. No lottery pick here, Caps fans, move along.
Adrian Dater, Denver Post: Personally, I don't think there's much difference between an 8th-place team and a 14th-place team. I know there is a tangible, final difference in the standings, but it's only a difference of a few wins every year. So, really, I think it's almost as likely the Avs will finish 8th as they will 14th. I still think they have problems on the front lines - especially when it comes to size in front of the net - and that will make being a top team most problematic. But, hey, the D will be better, and Varlamov could be a real find. If that's the case, the first-round pick isn't as big a deal. And let's not forget: the Avs had two first-round picks this year. There is a certain belief in the organization that they got a "2-for-1" deal this year, and that made giving up the first-rounder next year less of an issue.
David Driscoll-Carignan, Mile High Hockey: This is kind of a unique deal where the Capitals pick will be inversely dependent on the performance of the guy they traded; the better he performs, the lower the value of the draft pick Washington gets in return (and vice versa ). It's reminiscent of the Kessler trade, except Varlamov should have even more impact on the Avs' performance than Kessler did with the Leafs. The good news is that there's nowhere to go but up. Only three teams have had a worse season GAA than the Avs 3.50 last year. Oh, and the 5th worst performance was by the 2008-2009 Leafs, who improved their goaltending the next year in part by bringing on J.S. Giguere (an extremely underrated signing by the Avs this summer)
Bottom line: the Avalanche were a competitive team last year until things spiraled out of control in the 2nd half. They may not be Cup contenders yet, but they will not be a lottery team.
Oh, and while we're feeling all optimistic, Brett makes two big guarantees for the upcoming year.
Brett Shumway, Mile High Hockey: About as worried as I am that Tyler Arnason will be back in an Avs' sweater - It ain't gonna happen.
The Roundtable will continue all weekend long. Tomorrow we'll be asking where the Avalanche will improve next year.
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There is a certain belief in the organization that they got a “2-for-1” deal this year, and that made giving up the first-rounder next year less of an issue.
Brilliant.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
I’ll frame my thoughts like this:
Last year, in a limited sample size, Varlamov’s sv. % and GAA were 4th-best in the league. If he can maintain that over approximately 55 games, that makes him a top 5 NHL goalie. I’d trade the uncertainty of 2 future draft picks for a top 5 goalie every day of the week and twice on Friday.
No soup for you!
Not to piss in your Cheerios, but what makes you think Varly will be healthy this year? He’s had injuries with Lokomotiv (May God rest their souls) and injuries with the Bears/Caps.
There’s no doubting that he has elite talent, the question has always been whether or not he can keep himself on the ice.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 10, 2011 7:43 PM MDT up reply actions
I should add that if he starts 45-55 games, he’s probably good enough to keep the Avs out of a lottery spot by himself. He’s been pretty exceptional when he’s actually playing (~.930 ESSV, well clear of the league average).
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 10, 2011 7:56 PM MDT up reply actions
My only annoyance with Caps fans is that a draft pick is an unknown quantity whereas a prospect is not. The trade was a unknown, unquantifiable prospect, for a goalie. This could turn out to be a Duchene for Varlamov or a Siemens for Varlamov. The former I would probably not want the Avs to do, the latter I would do in a minute.
Caps fans will find any reason to hope this is a lottery pick and they should. There is a chance. There is also a chance that it is the 30th pick. There is also the chance that all of their players get hurt and they finish last.
It’s funny, people here and elsewhere like to rend Sherman into pieces. However, every trade he has made involving a 1st round pick has yielded an equal or higher 1st round pick (excluding what the Varly pick might be). He’s much shrewder than he seems. He’s not jumping on players with an ephemerally high production or low picks that worked out. It’s basically a 1 for 1 deal with the thought that Siemens will be better than Shattenkirk. Maybe having an accountant at the helm is a good thing.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
And it’s not even necessarily “is Siemens > Shattenkirk”. It’s more like “is a team with 2 somewhat similar guys in Shatty & Elliott > a team with complementary players like Siemens & Elliott?”
I tend to think the complementary team-building approach is smarter.
No soup for you!
It’s like have three Twix Bars at Halloween and trading one for a Reese’s Cup. You don’t lose anything, but you get a more well rounded candy bag.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
this seems to be a win for the Caps no matter what. they still have Neuwirth and then signed Vokoun for the cheap. even if this is the 30th pick, I think it’s a good deal for them.
I am the most humble blogger of all time
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Sep 9, 2011 8:08 AM MDT up reply actions
Totally agree. They did a great job. But, so did the Avs. They got what they, especially Sakic I hope, and we, believe is the goalie of the future. The difference is that it’s slightly riskier on the Avs’ side.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
agreed. I think we’re on the same page
I am the most humble blogger of all time
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Sep 9, 2011 8:13 AM MDT up reply actions
WAS dealt from a position of strength. They could still end up regretting this trade IF (and I admit it’s a big if) Varly goes on to have a HOF-type career.
No soup for you!
Varly’s better than Neuvy, so if Varly could overcome his injury issues, this could be something they regret later. They still have Holtby though, so they are probably fine.
Well to be more clear, I don’t think they’ll regret the trade, but what happened leading up to it that led Varly to be dissatisfied and want to leave. Clearly getting two picks for Varly when he was poised to flee to the KHL is a good situation for the Caps.
Yeah, that’s what I meant when I said they dealt from a position of strength. They already have 2 other solid young goalies who very well could pan out for them long-term, and were able to sign a proven veteran for the short term. For WAS, this is kind of a no-lose scenario.
However, we all know how inconsistent goalies can be. And we all know the unknowns associated with draft picks.
I was just trying to emphasize is that it’s not outside the realm of possibility that in the long run, they end up regretting letting Varly go more than we end up regretting giving up those 2 picks.
No soup for you!
he was poised to flee to the KHL
I don’t think he was ever really serious about the KHL. He’s Russian, so it’s going to be a negotiating strategy. Even if he was serious, the team he wanted to go to in the KHL didn’t own his rights. He wanted to be traded or released. He got his wish.
"It's all about the $"
Lawn defender since... crap, I can't remember.
Team he was “talking” to was Lokomotiv (yes, the one of recent headlines).
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I believe in next year.
by red army line on Sep 9, 2011 4:15 PM MDT up reply actions
Actually Locomotiv held his rights. He wanted to play for SKA St. Petersburg if he went to the KHL.
"It's all about the $"
Lawn defender since... crap, I can't remember.
by Busted Twigg on Sep 10, 2011 7:34 AM MDT up reply actions
IF it’s the 30th pick I think we win.
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Sep 9, 2011 9:00 AM MDT up reply actions
Amen
I will admit at first I was not crazy with what we gave up. Now however, after reading about him and watching game footage of him, while I still wish we could have gotten him “cheaper”, I am happy with what we got. I just can not wait to see what he can do. October can not get here fast enough, but the Burgundy and White game can got get here fast enough. 11 days!! Anyone else going to be there?
by Avalanchefan86 on Sep 9, 2011 9:09 AM MDT up reply actions
This is an astute point. I think if there’s one minor thing I have an issue with is the Avs didn’t get some sort of either lottery protection or option of year on the #1.
No soup for you!
I doubt Washington would have gone for that, considering the level of competition involved for Varly’s services
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
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What competition was there? Who else was in on Varly that COL had to out-bid?
Obviously, this is all speculation.
McPhee said there were two (three? I can’t remember) other teams bidding for Varly’s services. I don’t know who, or how much they bid, and I tend to take every GM’s words surrounding negotiation with a grain of salt, but he did say it in the week after the trade.
Thanks, Joe... Thanks, Peter.... Thanks, Adam....
I bet they tried. If you were Washington, would you have taken it? From the rumors swirling around, there were multiple offers for Varly. There is also a possibility that some may have even included roster players. But we got a semi-proven goalie for a couple of draft picks. Why? Because Washington knew that they could be really, really high lottery picks since they were coming from the Avalanche.
If we had put in a lottery protection, I doubt Washington would have been willing to give up Varly for just a 1st and a 2nd. But I bet the Avs front office tried.
Just a Colorado girl in Montana who <3s the Avs.
Is it October yet?
I agree with you, but I guess we’ll never know for sure. Something that’s kind of fun to do sometimes is go to read the old threads on places like japer’s rink or hfboards and see what people were saying before this all went down.
It’s amazing how many people speak with a tone of absolute certainty that gives you the impression they know wtf they are talking about, who turn out to have been talking completely out of their asses.
No soup for you!
You guys realize I was just making a glib remark right?
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Sep 9, 2011 10:10 AM MDT up reply actions
More than valuable than reading Japers I think is reading interviews Varly gave over the course of the summer. He left the Caps in May saying he wanted to sign with the Caps. Then June 20 he gave an interview saying he wanted to play in the NHL and no mention of the Caps. Somewhere in there he changed his mind. Personally I think it was his Russian agent, who seemed to really want Varly in the KHL where he’d make money off him. His agent tried to sabotage things with the Caps with that Puck Daddy article trashing them published the day Varly flew back to the US (June 29). Varly was furious at him, partially because they were personal friends. Varly spent two weeks in Turkey at the beginning of June with a friend from home, other hockey players and that Russian agent. Slava Malamud, who spoke to Varly and knows all the details but couldn’t share them because Varly didn’t want him too (what Slava told me), said at one point before the trade that he thought Varly would have already signed with the Caps if he had a competent agent. I think Varly came to the US when he did not just for training, but to also get away from that agent and his dad who wanted him in the KHL. He dealt only with his American agent and decided to go to Colorado on his own and didn’t tell the Russian agent or his dad what he was doing.
One thing to note about McPhee is that he hates to give away prospects before he’s sure they won’t amount to much for the Caps. He sometimes holds onto prospects too long and they lose some value. Varly is the first prospect/young player that he’s traded in recent years, since the lookout at least I think. For him to trade Varly was a shock to all Caps fans, but he really didn’t want to lose Varly for nothing. I think that is what motivated him to trade Varly. In the past couple years, McPhee has said when teams come calling he refuses to trade any of the young guys—Carlson, Alzner, Marcus Johansson, Neuvy, Varly, Holtby. He just doesn’t do it. I think part of the reason that he keeps re-signing Semin is that he lives in fear that Semin will get hot one year in the playoffs and burn the Caps (and he is the type that could).
by vtcapsfan99 on Sep 9, 2011 10:22 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
very interesting. Is that guy still one of his agents?
Chip, I'm gonna come at you like a spider monkey!
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Sep 9, 2011 11:51 AM MDT up reply actions
that’s a very good question. No one knows because Varly doesn’t want to discuss it. Malamud reported that Varly felt betrayed and cut the agent off and stopped talking to him. I asked Malamud on twitter about firing him but he didn’t feel comfortable discussing anything else, said Varly wanted to handle it privately. Maybe they’ll come to terms, I hope he fires him though. A lot of Caps fans were calling for the agent’s head and wanted Varly to immediately fire him and release a statement saying all that stuff the agent told Puck Daddy was crap. But that’s never going to happen. What Varly did do was right after being traded, he released a statement thanking the Caps, the fans, and the medical staff that his agent and father insulted.
Of course that didn’t satisfy Caps fans. It’s like they feel personally betrayed or something by Varly, it’s a bid odd, many of them are bitter and angry at him and think he’s a little whiny brat who was afraid to compete to be number 1 and hate him for threatening to take his ball and go home to the KHL (their words). Even Ted Leonsis seemed upset at Varly and insulted him a few times in his blog. It got to the point where JP basically this week suggested Varly allowed his dad and agent to brainwash him into thinking the Caps medical staff was bad, and that Varly blamed them for getting hurt when he didn’t prepare adequately himself. This is the guy that showed up last summer August 1 and did what they told him and got injured in the preseason and missed the first month or so of the season. Also he has shown that he knows his own mind and makes his own decisions, but whatever, that’s what many Caps fans think of him now.
You’ve certainly assessed our fan base correctly on the Varly issue, VT. But I can see where Varly is coming from. Maybe it’s because he’s right between my own kids in age and is also close in age to some of my kids’ cousins. So I know how that age group thinks.
As a Caps fan, I would have preferred that Varly would have more wished to stay in Washington, but know that in my heart that if my younger child had found herself in a similar situation, she’d have reacted similarly.
Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.
From what I can see, Varly is ultra-competitive. It’s hard for guys like that to sit on the bench and watch their teams lose in playoff situations when they are convinced that they have a lot they could give the team. I don’t know the whole story, but I could certainly see where that would affect his morale.
McPhee seemed shocked that he got as much as he did now for Varly because of the injuries. The fact that he was worried that Varly would bolt to the KHL probably made him willing to take less. He was lucky that there was some competition for Varly so I assume that drove up the price. If Varly went to the KHL, the Caps would hold his rights for 4 more years, but McPhee mentioned that he was worried about a situation like Nabokov and losing Varly for nothing. I’m assuming that he meant Varly playing a partial season in the KHL, hating it and wanting to come back and then having to clear waivers, so the Caps would lose him like Detroit lost Nabokov to the Isles.
On its surface, it should be a better deal for them. They were dealing from a position of strength on this one: they have a wealth of goalie prospects. The Avs have very little.
The way I look at it is this: If the Avs are a lottery team due to a Varly injury/Giggy implosion, then that’s bad luck and the Caps are the benefactors with a good pick. If the Avs are a lottery team due to Varly sucking and not being who we thought he would be, it’s an outright win for the Caps regardless of who they pick unless he’s the second coming of Nederost. If it’s a 5-15th pick (where I think it has the most chance of becoming), the Avs would likely have taken a center or d-man as BPA anyway, which would have forced a trade due to a logjam somewhere. This way, the Avs keep what they have, don’t overvalue an unknown, unranked draft pick, and take a swing for addressing the goalie issues inherent in the Avalanche system.
If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!
I was very concerned about this trade at first. But then the Avs picked up an insurance policy in Giggy. And a Varly/Giggy tandem is at least 8-million percent better than Bad Andy/Budaj,Elliott
If the Avs D improves with the new additions (which it should), and Varly can stay healthy (both physically, and now mentally)…and if Giggy can actually turn back time just a bit. This may end up working out to the Avs advantage
Stabilize your rear deflectors, watch for enemy fighters.
Chia, I agree with your post…..wait for it….100%.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
WHOA
Chia!! How did you get 6 whores to agree with you!!
by Avalanchefan86 on Sep 9, 2011 8:40 AM MDT up reply actions
I threatened to take the most profitable of his 6 whores
Stabilize your rear deflectors, watch for enemy fighters.
You leave the Madame alone Chia.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
Early on I thought it was too much to give up and management really didnt negotiate the best they could but as time passes I am getting more and more comfortable with this trade.
I think there is something to be said for age (Varly has some years behind him now and the knowledge of Giggy to draw from) and motivation. I think he is A) very motivated to be playing for the Avs and B) he is aware that the Avs sacrificed to get him and possibly C) has a chip because he may have felt Washington gave up on him a little early.
I like that he’s the best Russian goalie in the World. He’ll have Sochi and all of that to which to look forward and that’s exciting.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
Yes, Sochi is clearly on Varly’s mind. He made his contract be three years long so he wouldn’t have to go somewhere new before Sochi. Russia brought him to the last Olympics as number 3 goalie looking forward to Sochi. I am not sure how Bryzgalov will be playing in 2014, but he is 30 years old now. Varly is better than the KHL goalies that Russia favored at the last WC over him, but you never know what sort of craziness the Russian Hockey Federation will get up to. There is also Bob from Philly to consider. He and Varly are the same age and always competed growing up for spots on national teams, but I think Varly is better.
If Varly stays healthy, I think the Avs will make him look like a hero, a la Andy. He’ll face plenty of shots still, but have a much improved D compared to what Andy had. Varly has a great opportunity to seize. If he plays well, the Avs are a Cinderella story again and Varly will get a ton of the credit.
I need a drink, please.
by MalachiConstant on Sep 9, 2011 8:51 AM MDT up reply actions
Varly and Bob aren’t in the same league imo.
It's all about the O'
by SteveHouse on Sep 9, 2011 8:57 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
That sounds like one of those crazy Soviet-era cartoon shows that were badly copied on American shows but chock full of Communist propaganda.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
Smurfs?
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
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Varly the roadrunner keeps escaping Bob the coyote, who buys traps from capitalist pig, instead of use good Soviet supplies
It's all about the O'
by SteveHouse on Sep 9, 2011 9:18 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Varly and Bob aren’t in the same league imo.
Well, technically…
"It's all about the $"
Lawn defender since... crap, I can't remember.
He’s entitled to his opinion.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
Of course. I was just pointing out that they’re both in the NHL, meaning they are “in the same league”.
There I go trying to be funny, again.
"It's all about the $"
Lawn defender since... crap, I can't remember.
(I was trying to be funny too :( )
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
I think I’ll keep my day job. This comedy writing gig is hard.
"It's all about the $"
Lawn defender since... crap, I can't remember.
by Busted Twigg on Sep 9, 2011 10:05 AM MDT up reply actions
I’m concerned, but not about how a draft pick is going to perform in 2015 by the time they develop to an NHL player.
The Avs failed to develop their own goaltending or make it a priority until Pracey took over in 2008 when they started to focus on goalie prospects. The draft picks are the price you pay for neglecting your organization’s weakness. This is like having your engine rebuilt and paying out the nose for it instead of changing your oil regularly for $30.
That being said, Caps fans are excited about this but should also understand they are giving up their own first round pick by trading Varley. A first round pick that came at the cost of trading Benden Witt in 2006. A pick that they spent 5 years developing and all the costs associated with that. Once the Caps use the Avalanche pick to select a player regardless of where they are in the draft, they are likely looking at another 3-5 year development window before that player is (and he may not) be a productive player for Washington.
Am I concerned that the Caps pick could be the next NHL superstar? If Varley sucks, yes. I don’t believe there’s a lot of evidence supporting that though.
I'll keep this brief.
by Dario on Sep 9, 2011 9:29 AM MDT reply actions 2 recs
Good point about a player that has already shown himself well in the NHL being worth more than a prospect with potential that might never be realized. The Caps did put a lot into Varly, they wanted him to become the #1 goalie, and brought in Irbe who spoke Russian specifically for Varly. It’s also a matter of timing. McPhee traded away the Caps #1 pick this year for Troy Brouwer, who can help the Caps right now, which is what they need now to be successfull in the playoffs. The Avs needed a goalie right now more than a draft pick that wouldn’t join the team possibly for a few years.
The difference is that Washington can more or less know where they’ll finish and the Avs are an unknown quantity. I’m ok with that.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
I think WSH is a better and more mature team at this point. That does make their performance somewhat more predictable, but still, LUCK plays a huge part in the results of a single season. If they lose a small number of key players, everything could change.
At the beginning of last season, who honestly believed that the Avs would end up out of the playoffs? They made the playoffs the year before, and they were a year older and had added a few solid players. In December, who honestly believed that the Avs were about to totally collapse? I don’t think anyone realized what was happening until the end of February, and we’re still trying to digest the scale of the tank. It was an historically bad stretch.
I don’t think anyone today knows where the Caps will end up. If they play to a reasonable fraction of their potential, they’ll compete for the SE division championship. If they have injuries to key players, they could be on the outside looking in. It’s become something of a cliche’, but that’s why they play the games.
"It's all about the $"
Lawn defender since... crap, I can't remember.
by Busted Twigg on Sep 9, 2011 10:26 AM MDT up reply actions
I think they’ll win their division, possibly the East and still somehow choke in the playoffs. Their team is changed a little, one more year mature, etc. But I just have this feeling that they will choke come the post season.
by ProfessorOak on Sep 9, 2011 11:57 AM MDT up reply actions
With Varly, it’s going to come down to his health, period. He’s got bucket loads of talent. If he can find a way to stay healthy, he’ll be a terrific goalie for you. He has struggled with injuries in the past, and that might continue. Or, he might not. No way to tell but play the games and find out.
My money would be on Varly continuing to have problems with his groin and missing big chunks of time.
Anyway, standings points in an individual season can deviate from true talent by quite a bit, so it’s a fool’s errand to predict before the season. COL might get hotter than hell with their shooting percentage and finish right up there. Or they could shoot like the NJD did to open the season last year and fall to the bottom of the table. Most likely it comes out somewhere in between, but you never know.
Agree with your point that draft picks are uncertain commodities.
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Well the Caps don’t really lose a first round pick. They got Varly’s ELC years and got the performance out of him over that time. You can’t make decisions based on sunk costs, so I doubt GMGM ever looked at it as “we spent so much time developing him.” He saw the injuries and the fact that we have two other G prospects that look like they will be competent NHL goalies. That made Varly expendable. Bringing up Brenden Witt is also funny. That was in the middle of the fire sale and most of us thought it was pretty hilarious that we were even able to get a First for Witt at that point.
I also dispute your 3-5 year timeline. I’d say it’s more like 2-3. Carlson, Johansson, and it looks like Kuznetsov are all guys picked in the 20s that made the Caps within 2-3 years. If the pick is earlier (in a good draft), I wouldn’t expect that timeline to be pushed back.
The risk isn’t that Varly will suck, I don’t think. The risk is that he won’t play.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Sep 10, 2011 1:12 PM MDT up reply actions 2 recs
Poll wording
I had to go with “concerned.” If the pick is in the lottery, that means that the Avs have had a second total collapse. With the talent level on the team this year, there’s no way they should fall into the lottery. If they do, they will have had massive injury problems, lots of under-performance, and general suckitude. That would concern me.
"It's all about the $"
Lawn defender since... crap, I can't remember.
Being one of the first people, that Immediately liked this trade
It makes me happy to see that everyone else is excited for it an accepting it. I still remember the thread when the trade happened, 99% of ppl were so mad, SO mad, funny stuff.
It still depends though. Varly has had physical problems, and not he has this KHL thing weighing on him mentally. Not to mention he’s going to be asked to carry a big load, something he has yet to do. I’m coming around, but there are still TONS of variables
Stabilize your rear deflectors, watch for enemy fighters.
It’s been reported that he used the KHL merely as a bargaining weapon and had no plans of actually going there, especially because the KHL team that owns his rights, isn’t the team he’d want to play for. I know @Slavamalamud has tweeted that numerous times.
by ProfessorOak on Sep 9, 2011 11:55 AM MDT up reply actions
I don’t think Varly really wanted to play in the KHL, he definitely preferred the NHL, only the Caps wouldn’t trade him, and he was done with the Caps for some reason. I guess he pursued the KHL options hoping it would force the Caps to trade him and as a fallback. I think he was very close to going to play for SKA, but I don’t think he would have done that unless the Caps refused to trade him and they couldn’t patch things up. Also the fact that Lokomotiv GM hated SKA and wouldn’t agree to trade him, but I think they would have caved eventually with enough money. But it didn’t get that far because Varly got what he wanted from McPhee.
I was one of them. I’ll admit it. I liked the player, but (before I knew the whole story) I figured we gave up way too much for a guy who had one foot out the door on his way to the KHL.
Also, at that time I was fully expecting (as was 90% of the hockey world) that we would just sign Vokoun. And even if he didn’t work out like Andy in ‘09-’10, at least Pracey and company would bring in another high quality prospect in the deep ’12 draft.
No soup for you!
I was honestly more pissed that Vokoun signed with the Caps, of all people, haha. He may have been happy with where, but not with the money, as shown by basically firing his agent right away.
by ProfessorOak on Sep 9, 2011 12:00 PM MDT up reply actions
I’m not so concerned that we will have a lottery pick next year. I do however feel that if we are heading that way we might be able to get a first rounder back at the deadline. It won’t be a lottery pick, but with a deep class it’s better than nothing.
I wonder who our most tradeable assets would be at the deadline, if that scenario were to occur. I’m sure Stastny’s name would start getting thrown around a lot (again).
No soup for you!
I didn’t like the trade, but I don’t think it will be a top 10. It think it will be in the 10-20 range. They really didn’t need to add that much to any position other than goaltending and if they drafted a goalie in the first round next year it would take them 3-4 years to even make the NHL. Also I don’t think it will haunt them because its not like the Capitals are in their division or even their conference so they would only end up facing that player once a year.
Most of the “optimistic” comments have a common theme:
if he can stay healthy
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Obviously.
Health has been a problem, talent has not. Of course that’s going to be the common theme.
A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day.
Mile High Hockey : Where B- is different than C+
I just think that if everyone is banking on that…well, his injury history tells us it’s unlikely.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
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by red army line on Sep 9, 2011 5:40 PM MDT up reply actions
k
A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day.
Mile High Hockey : Where B- is different than C+
I smell his bitterness from here. Unless Varlamov is suddenly the goalie version of Brett Lindros I have a hard time imagining he’ll be injured for every season from now until 2030.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
I mean, he's right, of course
There’s extensive injury history and tons of concern about it. I guess I don’t see what he’s bringing to the discussion by saying ‘Everyone here seems to hinge their optimism on him being healthy’.
Uh, obviously? Doesn’t every team hinge every season on a reasonable amount of luck in regards to health?
It feels like a thinly veiled way of saying “Haha you guys are dumb for hoping he might be healthy based on his track record!”. It’s also fair to point out I’m super defensive about this trade. It’s been a long off-season of Caps fans mocking the Avalanche and I’ve grown very weary of the stupidity between the fan bases. I’m happy the Caps fans are intelligent enough to recognize they made a trade with absolutely zero upside, a true rarity in sports. I’m saddened they seem unable to reign in being assholes about it.
A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day.
Mile High Hockey : Where B- is different than C+
Uh, obviously? Doesn’t every team hinge every season on a reasonable amount of luck in regards to health?
What is reasonable, here?
It feels like a thinly veiled way of saying "Haha you guys are dumb for hoping he might be healthy based on his track record!".
There’s a difference between “hoping” and “expecting” (and between insults and pointing out a flaw in an argument).
Look, I love Varly, there aren’t five goalies I’d take over him if I had to play a do-or-die game tomorrow. That doesn’t mean I’ll expect him to stay healthy.
I don’t necessarily disagree with the conclusions—I don’t think the Avs are a lottery team—but I do disagree with the reasoning. I think in terms of GP it’ll be more Giguere than Varlamov. Maybe Varlamov will be able to stay healthy, no one knows. The guy I look towards is Kari Lehtonen, another oft-injured goalie early in his career, but he only figured out how to stay healthy (it seems!!) after going UFA, and I think if Varlamov ever figures out how to stay within his body’s limits it’ll be around that 26-27 age rather than 23-24, since then there’s a real risk no one gives you a contract.
I also think there’s a lot of underrating going on about that 1st rounder. Even mid-1sts generally turn into useful players (top-6/top-4).
I smell his bitterness from here.
What bitterness? The Caps’ prospect pool is Kuznetsov, a few guys that may top out as AHL/NHL tweeners, and a goalie (which we know are very volatile as prospects). I’m happy that the Caps can restock and can actually plan for filling a goalie spot with an NHL-caliber goalie instead of using AHL-callups to fill in as Neuvirth’s benchmate.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
I believe in next year.
by red army line on Sep 9, 2011 8:13 PM MDT up reply actions
Whatever, forget it, not like I’m bringing up new arguments anyway.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
I believe in next year.
by red army line on Sep 9, 2011 8:17 PM MDT up reply actions
I think
In regards to underrating the first rounder, it’s because most of us feel Varly is going to be a superior player to whoever that draft pick turns into (obviously most of us are assuming it’s a mid-first and not at Top 5). I’d love to have that prospect come into our organization but if that prospect was the cost for getting a potential number 1 goalie, something we haven’t really had in Colorado since Roy retired, and who is in his early 20s…yeah, I don’t mind losing the unknown that is that draft pick. If that pick turns into the next Brooks Laich, I’d still be totally stoked with the trade because it’s harder to find a number 1 goalie than Top 6 forwards. I believe that’s largely the thinking here.
Nobody is saying we gave up nothing, just that considering the need that was filled was BY FAR our biggest and we might have solved the position long-term, it’s a price most of us are fine with.
I don’t know anything about a guy figuring out his injury problems. It’ll either happen or it won’t. The way I see it, it could just as easily happen this season as it could 4 years from now or not at all. At some point as a franchise, you have to take a swing at greatness or get left treading water year after year. The Avs put it all on the line and took a shot. If it works out, we have a ridiculous amount of talent at center, a true number 1 defenseman, and a number 1 goalie and all of them still very young. Sounds like a pretty solid foundation for competing at a high level for a long time.
A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day.
Mile High Hockey : Where B- is different than C+
by A.J. Haefele on Sep 9, 2011 9:24 PM MDT up reply actions 2 recs
Well said, sir.
It's all about the A-
by Sandie Gauthier on Sep 9, 2011 9:34 PM MDT up reply actions
I see a lot of David Jones parallels here. If we traded him to some other team for a first and second (or whatever, really), I guarantee you someone from MHH would be on that site saying “obviously, health is an issue here”. It’s nothing we ourselves don’t do.
I also don’t see the hate towards seemingly rational caps fans that are here. I really don’t see the problem in pointing out the obvious. It’s nothing we don’t do here every day. As long as you aren’t a dick about it, go to it. At that point, all you’re doing is pointing out your internet right to agree. It’s not like someones saying haha fuck you we win you suck, etc.
Most of the "optimistic" comments have a common theme:
if he can stay healthy
Yes, it’s obvious, yes, it’s been said. But really, that’s not that bad. Honestly, this whole conversation could have been wrapped up like two days after the trade, with a continuation clause for after the season. But we’re fans, its what we do. And I like that. It makes for good entertainment in the off season.
This post brought to you by the department of redundancy department.
"In my experience, there's no such thing as luck" -Obi Wan Kenobi
I don't understand the purpose of the line, "I don't need to drink
to have fun." Great, no one does. But why start a fire with flint and
sticks when they've invented the lighter?
It’s not bitterness or gloating, it’s pointing out something relevant to the discussion. A lot of the bloggers in the round table and comments below seem to be suggesting the is a great move for the Avs because they gave up an unknown for a proven top goalie.
Well Varlamov is not a proven top goalie. He’s a top talent, but anyone the Caps get with the first round pick will have a ton of talent. Being proven means that you’ve shown you can apply that talent, and in that regard Varlamov is not proven. He hasn’t shown he can stay healthy, and while his numbers are good he’s never taken on a load greater than that of a good backup. Even if he does stay healthy there are questions of whether or not he can be a top goalie with a starter’s workload. This wasn’t a trade of potential for proven talent. It was a trade of potential for potential.
Personally I don’t care what Varlamov does for the rest of his career. He could be a HOFer and I’d still think this was a smart move by GMGM. You should judge the wisdom of a trade based on the information available at the time, not based on hindsight. GMGM received an extra first round pick in a deep draft plus a 2nd round pick for a player who is immensely talented but 1) hadn’t proven they can stay healthy and handle a starter’s workload, 2) was dissatisfied with the organization for whatever reason and was threatening to go to the KHL (I think there is more too that than just agent posturing) and 3) played a position at which the Caps have a good deal of depth. What Varlamov does or doesn’t do will affect the evaluation of the trade from the Avs side, but to me there is pretty much nothing he can do that would make this a dumb move from the standpoint of the Caps.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Sep 10, 2011 2:27 PM MDT up reply actions 3 recs
Well said. Trades and acquisitions are a game of risk. And in this case it is “potential for potential.”
Both teams will have to play out the season to see if the trades and acquisitions made by their respective GMs pan out the way they hope. (For the record I am not expecting a lottery pick. Any team can have a great or horrible season).
I’ve been a fan of Varly’s for several years now (my jersey is from when he was still wearing no. 40). And I wish him well. But I think it was a smart move by GMGM to trade him.
Varly was threatening to go to the KHL, his only bargaining chip as a restricted player. GMGM wasn’t going to give him whatever it was that he wanted. Given the Caps depth in the position GMGM traded him, fortunately for Varly to a team that he desired. And GMGM got his first-round pick back (the one he used on Varly) plus a second for use in a deep draft that allows him to restock his prospects. The Avs got a goalie that has the potential to be great but with the caveat that he is injury-prone. But a goalie that is very happy to be an Av.
Hopefully you will get many special Varly moments of your own. He’s great off-ice too—very personable and engaging and good with fans. I will always remember his “Cleek on Mee” video on the Caps website.
by capsyoungguns on Sep 10, 2011 7:12 PM MDT up reply actions
Exactly. Both sides took risks (Colorado on Varly’s health, Washington on the vagaries of 18 year old talent evaluation, both sides on how the Avs are going to do this year), and both sides dealt from a position of depth to fill needs (Wash. has lots of goalies, needs prospects; Colorado has lot of good current prospects, needs goalies). Seems like a wash so far.
In the end, though, goalies with top-tier talent (as everyone agrees that Varly has) just flat-out will not be available unless there is some sort of issue with them. If there’s no issue then there’s no reason for their teams to deal them. So, to get top-tier talent, you have to develop it yourself or you have to deal with the issues. The Avs don’t have goalies that are ready with that kind of talent. So they are dealing with the issues. Fine with me. Good decision on the Avs’ part, rather than slotting someone mediocre in there.
At least they are taking their chances. And, if Giggy’s operation proves successful then he might be an outstanding backup as well. If not, well, Desjardins is a mighty intriguing signing, too.
When you crash out early in the playoffs every year, it’s easy to be pessimistic.
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I believe in next year.
by red army line on Sep 9, 2011 8:01 PM MDT up reply actions
I think that Sherman & Pracey have done an extraordinary job in addressing the wasteland that was Avalanche goaltender depth when Sherman came to power generally and since the beginning of 2011 specifically.
The real fault behind the Craig Anderson debacle will never be known to those not directly involved and is, in all likelihood, shared between a meddling Pierre Lacroix / Familie Kroenke and a goaltender who had just finished a career year and radically overestimated his worth (how unusual, especially in recent NHL history!). That being said, everybody knew that Craig Anderson could be had for half a ham sandwich and that’s just what Sherman got in exchange. Sherman’s hope that said porcine repast hadn’t been sitting in the sun too long with its mayonnaise dressing and side of egg salad happened to be more hope than realism, but as we all know, St. Louis is famous for giving unappreciated, mis-used Avalanche cast-offs the real chance in the NHL that they deserve. I’d even bet money on it.
Anywho, the Avs’ starting keepers at the beginning of FA this year were Jack and Shit. They went out and got a legit starting keeper, who was playoff proven and still very young for a couple of draft picks from a trading partner who was not only a powerhouse (at least through early April) in the league, but had all kinds of leverage on the player that they were trading (the names of that leverage were, in no particular order, Neuvirth, Holtby and Restricted Free Agency) to speak nothing of the leverage that they had with any potential trading partners. Washington is and was a powerhouse and despite needing strength in some positions, was definitely holding the cards in any potential trade.
The fact that Sherman got a legit starting NHL goaltender without giving up a roster player is extraordinary. That this discussion revolves around the Imaginary Awesomeness © TM [all rights reserved Daniel J. Winkler IV] of theoretical draft pick X in next year’s draft rather than the immediate value lost by the Avs and gained by the Caps of which starting centerman? SoS? Radar? Hishon ++? is a credit to Sherman’s acumen.
While 2012 appears to be an extraordinarily deep draft and while Pracey has shown himself more capable than most in deriving value from the draft, we’re still talking about largely proven capacity (still with great upside) in Varly vs. the capacity to more or less dominate in Major Juniors in Player X. I’ll take the former, thank you.
Couple the above with the very sly signings of Conn Smythe and Stanley Cup winning Giggy and the very strong performance of Desjardins in the AHL and limited NHL performance and Sherman did yeoman’s work in filling the largest of the gaping holes in the organization at the end of the Season That Shall Not be Named II: Return of the Suck.
Good on ya Shermie. Nearly makes up for the Very Real and Proven Lack of Awesomeness that is Matt Hunwick.
Now which of your MHH lawyers wants to defend my copyright lawsuit with Dan? Guaranteed to be ugly. Likely 8.4 Dans or greater.
2011-2012 Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Vyechnaya Pamyat!
2011-2012 Colorado Avalanche: The possibility exists that this may not suck.
by Hopfenkopf on Sep 9, 2011 10:02 PM MDT reply actions 1 recs
The real fault behind the Craig Anderson debacle will never be known to those not directly involved and is, in all likelihood, shared between a meddling Pierre Lacroix / Familie Kroenke and a goaltender who had just finished a career year and radically overestimated his worth
I am curious how if no one will ever know what was going on everyone knew what was going on; hence his value being so low? I’d attribute it more to the fact that he sucked at goalie, not whatever was going on behind the scenes. And I don’t see that as being a “have him for a ham sandwich”, I see that as a “fuck it let’s wait til next year” (ie let’s keep the guy- he was a stud last season, maybe he’ll turn it around). But they traded him for shit. So I guess it was maybe either a secret or not so much. If you were referring to whether the fans would know, then nevermind, forget I typed that. But I don’t think getting nothing for a crap goaltender is the same as getting nothing for an issues goaltender unless SOMEBODY knew WTF was up.
Personally, I think there were issues. I also think they will come out, even if it’s ten years down the road.
"In my experience, there's no such thing as luck" -Obi Wan Kenobi
I don't understand the purpose of the line, "I don't need to drink
to have fun." Great, no one does. But why start a fire with flint and
sticks when they've invented the lighter?
Sorry, wasn’t clear. If there was another element to the situation other than Andy sucking at keeper, those not directly involved will likely not know for some time, if ever. I too, suspect that it was butthurt, most likely mutual that played a large role.
Mid season demand for keepers, especially those who have shown little in the way of health and/or winning capacity and in an environment where keepers are a dime a dozen, is pretty low. Ham sandwich low. Sherman had the option of hanging on to a grossly underperforming Andy with whom there were, IMO, major attitude/relationship with the organization issues, or to trade his talented but sucking keeper for whatever he could get, which was somebody else’s less talented and sucking harder keeper.
2011-2012 Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Vyechnaya Pamyat!
2011-2012 Colorado Avalanche: The possibility exists that this may not suck.
Gotcha. Still wish, as i’m sure most do, that they could have gotten more for Andy
"In my experience, there's no such thing as luck" -Obi Wan Kenobi
I don't understand the purpose of the line, "I don't need to drink
to have fun." Great, no one does. But why start a fire with flint and
sticks when they've invented the lighter?
If the Avs suck so bad this year that they finish in the bottom 5, I don’t think the pick would help a whole helluva lot. At that point they’ll just get rid of everybody…
0_o
A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day.
Mile High Hockey : Where B- is different than C+
by A.J. Haefele on Sep 10, 2011 8:56 AM MDT up reply actions
Varly
The big question for Varlamov is health – it’s not talent or athleticism. To date, Varly hasn’t demonstrated he can stay healthy for a year; even in his KHL and AHL days, he had injury problems. It’s a tremendous shame because he is so supremely talented. The Caps had 2 guys with chronic injury problems: Varly and Eric Fehr. Both are now with other teams.
I like Varly and wish him well, but don’t think his availability will approach 75% of the total games.
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