Avalanche at Kings Recap: Varlamov Rules Kings, Leads Avs To A 2-1 Shootout Win
by Derek B on Jan 2, 2012 11:27 PM MST
in Avalanche Recaps
Email
PrintThe Colorado Avalanche got to show off their penalty killing skills a lot earlier than they would've liked to tonight. Just 20 seconds into the game Ryan O'Reilly was assessed a double minor for high-sticking. Fortunately for the Avs, Mike Richards was called for interference just 7 seven seconds into O'Reilly's penalty. There was a brief scare as Justin Williams deflected the puck past Seymon Varlamov, but referee Brian Pochmara deemed it was deflected by a high stick. The play was reviewed by the Situation Room in Toronto and the call on the ice stood.
There was a point where the Kings had nearly 6 minutes of continuous play in the Avs' defensive zone. The Kings had a few quality scoring chances that Varlamov was able to make some big saves on. As the first period came to a close the Avs were able to string together a couple of solid shifts and gain some momentum heading into the first intermission despite being outshot 12-5 by the Kings.
The second period didn't get started the way the Avs would've liked. The Kings top line was able to catch the Avs' defense flat footed in front of Varlamov and Dustin Brown tucked the puck thru Varly's legs. It was Brown's 10th goal of the season with Antze Kopitar and Mike Richards getting the assists.
With just under 6 minutes to go in the second period, TJ Galiardi was called for roughing during a skirmish near the Kings bench. Not entirely sure how he was the only one to come away with a penalty. Nevertheless the Kings were going back on the power play. Now there's a million hockey cliches out there, and one of them is the one about your goalie having to be your best penalty killer. Tonight he was. He came up huge for the Avs as he made several key saves including a full split save to deny Jack Johnson on what looked to be a slam dunk. The Avs would head into the second intermission down 1-0.
With just over 11 minutes to play in the third period, Kings forward Kyle Clifford took a rare kneeing penalty as he left his right knee out and took out Kyle Quincey's leg. Fortunately Quincey didn't have any weight on his right knee otherwise that could've been disastrous. It would be the Avs' first power play chance of the evening. They never really got any sustained pressure during the power play.
With just under 6 minutes to play, Ryan O'Reilly tied the game with his 10th goal of the season, Kyle Quincey earned the lone assist on the goal. I continue to be amazed by the play of Ryan O'Reilly game in and game out, night after night. Then I become even more impressed (if that's even possible at this point) when I remember that he is still only 20 years old. I've said it before, and I will say it again, if the Avs can somehow keep this young core of players together, this team will be scary good in about 2 to 3 years.
WIth just over 2 and a half minutes to play, Stefan Elliott was called for hooking Drew Doughty as he tried to cut to the Avs' net. Fortunately for Avs' fans, Doughty felt it necessary to try and sell it a little too much and was given a 2 minute minor for diving. I, for one, am extremely happy that the refs are starting to make these calls. There's no room in hockey for it, this isn't soccer.
WIth just over a minute and a half to play in the overtime period, Kyle Quincey was whistled for high sticking Jarret Stoll as he was trying to clear him out from in front of Varlamov. Fortunately for the Avs' Varly was again the best Avs' penalty killer as he came up with a couple of great saves during the Kings' 4 on 3 power play during the OT period.
Milan Hejduk would score the only goal in the shootout and Varly would stop all 3 shooters the Kings' would send his way.
- 1 Semyon Varlamov, 31 saves, including all 3 Kings' shooters in the shootout.
- 2 Ryan O'Reilly, Scored the Avs only goal during regulation in the 3rd period.
- 3 Milan Hejduk, Scored the winning goal in the shootout.
- 1 Landeskog-O'Reilly-Hejduk
- 2 Winnik-Stastny-Galiardi
- 3 Jones-McClement-Kobasew
- 4 McLeod-Porter-Van der Gulik
- 1 Johnson-O'Brein
- 2 Hejda-O'Byrne
- 3 Elliott-Quincey
- 1 Tonight was David Jones' 200th career game in the NHL.
- 2 With Ryan O'Reilly's third period goal, the Avs' now have 34 goals scored by players not old enough to drink in the United States.
- 3 First time the Avs went to Southern California and beat both the Kings and Ducks in the same road trip.
Colorado packs up their board shorts, sun tan lotion, sunglasses and break out their parkas and toques as they head to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Blackhawks Friday night.
228 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Two more points! Coach Sacco and his staff really have these guys ready to play in all types of games. The main thing is that they win the 1-goal games more than any other team in the league. That’s usually a trait of a veteran team, but this young, well-drilled group doesn’t care – they’ll take the tight wins.
Let’s hope the “best” players figure things out in the next few days off and we get ready for a very good Chicago team on Friday.
#FireSacco #SaccoKicksPuppies
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
You forgot the ever popular #SaccoLogic
by quietstorm560 on Jan 3, 2012 12:18 AM MST up reply actions
I’m not necessarily disagreeing with you, but why do you think winning 1-goal games is a trait of a veteran team? Sure the Avs have come back a few times to win by one, but they’ve also been up by two or more and held on by the skin of their teeth to scrap out a 1-goal win.
I'm such a huge fan of the Avs I can name who our goalie was FOUR seasons ago! Crazy, right?!
by Guitarpick8120 on Jan 2, 2012 11:43 PM MST up reply actions
Hmm, fair question. I think close games are managed more tightly than games with a two-three goal difference. I think in closer games you really keep a close eye on who’s playing. You strategize more. You keep a tighter control on the game because any mistake, any goal, can break the game wide open.
I guess I didn’t really think of the games where we had the lead and let it slip to a goal.
This was an excellent win, a very professional win, against a team that had been playing well lately. I’m happy, I’ll take the two points.
It was a good win. The KIngs clearly had more jump for the first 35-40 minutes, but after Varly bailed them out (I literally just shivered because I remembered reading some asinine comments on the DP site about how terrible he was that he never won a game on his own…) they remained very focused and kept upping the intensity.
I think Kobasew and JayMac helped with the increase, but at the same time, Radar totally took this game and team on his shoulders and carried them to the promised land. With every passing day I’m thinking that his new contract won’t (read: shouldn’t) be that far off from Duchene’s.
I'm such a huge fan of the Avs I can name who our goalie was FOUR seasons ago! Crazy, right?!
by Guitarpick8120 on Jan 3, 2012 12:00 AM MST up reply actions
All the stats folk say winning one-goal games is not a repeatable skill. Basically it’s a crapshoot.
The stats folks say lots of things. I think there is some merit to it but I think the focus is too long term. I don’t buy a lot of it.
"In my experience, there's no such thing as luck" -Obi Wan Kenobi
I don't understand the purpose of the line, "I don't need to drink
to have fun." Great, no one does. But why start a fire with flint and
sticks when they've invented the lighter?
Avs got dominated in my opinion. But they didn’t break. Scrappy effort. All coaching obviously.
I'll keep this brief.
There is apparently a very fine line between Jack Adams and Scapegoat for a coach of a cap floor team. And that fine line seems to be the goaltending.
Anyone have some numbers on the goaltending over the past month compared to other parts of the season? Out on a limb here, but I’m guessing the numbers are better.
4th biggest pessimist of MHH.
"There's always next season." -- Jimmy Howard on not winning the Calder Trophy.
There is apparently a very fine line between Jack Adams and Scapegoat for a coach of a cap floor team. And that fine line seems to be the goaltending.
Nail :: Head
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 3, 2012 10:38 AM MST up reply actions
And that fine line seems to be the goaltending.
You mean like when Anderson stood on his head 2 years ago and the Avs backed into the playoffs?!
Yeah, usually that’s how I feel… a good goalie can erase a lot of mistakes and make you look better.
Paul Stastny did, what Paul Stastny does. Score big goals.
yeah, at this point it’s all riding on the goaltending. I remain in the fire Sacco bandwagon, but that is due to long term results and issues. this silly reaction to short term results is confounding to me.
The Avs are getting better goaltending right now, and thus they are winning.
And they were getting shitty goaltending, all last season and during the Avs fade, and losing.
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 3, 2012 3:59 PM MST up reply actions
Not to mention terrible defensive play last year. I still don’t think the D is there yet. I don’t “get” Eric Johnson, for such a high pick he just seems to make every play so…tedious? (I think that’s what I’m looking for). Get a couple more hot shot blueliners, or near hot shots, and that part of the team can fully round into form
Goalie coach? We don't need no stinking goalie coach!
Agreed. Like I said, I want Sacco fired because he isn’t helping over the long term imo. But it’s preposterous to claim he’s responsible for this winning steak or that losing streak.
I’ve been gone and haven’t watched all of the games from December on my DVR, but I’ll give him this from what I have seen: the team is not playing as hyper aggressive and free form as they were, and they’re playing more disciplined defense in general. That’s been one of my big complaints with Sacco, and I have no clue why it took this long to realize that forechecking the shit out of possession teams doesn’t work, but better late than never.
It’s the first thing I’ve seen in a long time that I consider a positive move from Sacco. Kudos to him for that, that’s exactly what he needs to do to get my “vote” for him to stay. With him pressing the right buttons, the need for a winger has eclipsed the firing him as the biggest button the team needs to push.
Obligatory mention of Dan in a Sacco post.
preposterous to claim he’s to blame for the losing streak yettttttttttttt people kept doing it. You seem completely indignant to that fact, even though it was said repeatedly.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
Nobody’s saying it’s all coaching, unlike the folks who were saying it was all coaching when we were losing. It’s a combination of a lot of things. I think coaching is one of the least important things when you get to the NHL level.
The coaches obviously have made adjustments that have paid off. And the fact that this team is actually in the playoff conversation, with Stastny’s 10 fucking assists and David Jones on pace to score as many points this year as he had goals last year and Varlamov’s save percentage that’s barely above .900, is pretty amazing.
It’s all luck
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 3, 2012 10:40 AM MST up reply actions
Wow, 3 stars of the days by the Versus crew, wait i mean the NBC sports crew, dip shits, none the less. #1 is Rupp, #2 is Ryan Smyth and #3 is Hank.
Where the fuck is Varly. Tell me that Varly did not have a better game than Hank. Just because those half ass excuses of announcers went to bed at 8 and never saw the game doesn’t mean they should fuck Varly over.
Avalanche Hockey: egressing to the mean
They're back east and didn't stay up to watch this game.
Because as far as they’re concerned no hockey worth watching is played outside the eastern time zone, let alone in the pacific.
Staff Writer for Mile High Hockey: A Colorado Avalanche Fan Community
One Bronco Nation Under God - The Online Voice of Boise State Football Fans
why anyone tries to beat Varly wide is beyond me. Not happening. His weakness is 5-hole. but don’t tell anyone.
"Put stick on ice, put puck in net"
Duchene
is just being a playful little minx in the twitter box, with all those ;P ‘s he’s been posting.
by THEKINGOFHOCKEY on Jan 3, 2012 12:05 AM MST reply actions
I saw that too.
Says he has too much free time on his hands now. Lol!
Staff Writer for Mile High Hockey: A Colorado Avalanche Fan Community
One Bronco Nation Under God - The Online Voice of Boise State Football Fans
I should say so.
He was watching Teen Mom yesterday. Ripped it pretty hard, but still, it was on. WAAAAAAY too much time on his hands.
Just a Colorado girl in Montana who ♥s the Avs and writes for Mile High Hockey.
By the way, Varly’s little shrug after making the easiest ever glove-save on Brown absolutely needs to be made into a gif so it can forever loop with his previous exalted lunge of victory!
I'm such a huge fan of the Avs I can name who our goalie was FOUR seasons ago! Crazy, right?!
Did anyone else see the stick thwack that Gali took from Penner when he was mugged by those queens wearing the purple and gold sweaters by the bench? It was around the same time that he took the roughing/wearing an A on his sweater penalty in the second. Penner’s move was pretty Torres-trian.
I’m glad to see Varly steal us a game. His solid play really was the brightest spot on this late night. Surprised we got a point, let alone two. Not surprised that Radar was the one to tie it up late. I guess inconsistent play will be the benchmark of this team for a while, eh? But as long as they keep getting them in the W column…
I thought it was Brown, not Penner.
Inconsistent play? They’re locking teams down on D and they’re getting great goaltending. It’s been that way for about a month now. They’ve got pretty much nothing on offense because their “best” players are letting them down. I don’t think they’ve been inconsistent, I think they’ve become really predictable.
by DiD on Jan 3, 2012 8:47 AM MST up reply actions
Could have been. All those Queens looked the same with their purple or “Californian Blue” as Sunnyside called it. Or was it Haynes that made that comment?
You’re absolutely right about the lock down D and nothing on Offense. But, you cannot tell me that scoring 4 goals one game and then 1 goal in regulation the next isn’t a sign of inconsistency. That’s been the thing with this team all year—too many fluctuations in their production. Isn’t that what constitutes inconsistency? It’s what all young teams do, and I’m slowly coming around to it. This is a team that I’m happy to watch again and its because of their effort.
by quietstorm560 on Jan 4, 2012 3:15 AM MST up reply actions
Torrestrian
Beautiful coinage.
At exactly what point do you start to realize that life without knowledge is death in disguise?
You liked that, eh? It falls in line with “Bertuzzian”
by quietstorm560 on Jan 4, 2012 3:16 AM MST up reply actions
Dunno where you guys are looking… NHL has Varly as #3 Star
Cap Floor Team = Cap Floor Results
by Cole D Hamilton on Jan 3, 2012 12:32 AM MST reply actions
I think they're talking about the new highlight show on old Versus
Staff Writer for Mile High Hockey: A Colorado Avalanche Fan Community
One Bronco Nation Under God - The Online Voice of Boise State Football Fans
This was brought up in the GDT and I'm probably going to get smacked for bringing it up again.
But I’d really like people’s opinions. So….
Where do you think O’Reilly’s ceiling is? How good do you think he’s going to get? The kid is 20 and probably has a ways to go before hitting his peak, and he just seems to keep getting better each game. Is he just a 2nd-line center, or can he be our #1 long-term? With Dutchy as a winger and Stastny being meh, can O’Reilly be the guy we build this team around or is that asking too much? He clearly wants to be a dominant player in the league just judging by his work ethic, but is there a point where he physically/talent-wise just can’t improve his game any more?
Just a Colorado girl in Montana who ♥s the Avs and writes for Mile High Hockey.
Don't think Radar has that kind of ceiling
but he can definitely be who he is right now for the next 10 years and I won’t complain
A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day.
Mile High Hockey : Where B- is different than C+
by A.J. Haefele on Jan 3, 2012 12:57 AM MST up reply actions
Do you see him as our #2 center then?
Just a Colorado girl in Montana who ♥s the Avs and writes for Mile High Hockey.
Maybe, yeah
I think this season we’ve gotten way caught up with the whole WHO IS FIRST LINE AND WHO IS SECOND LINE. Depending on personnel and recent trends, there will be situations where you want O’Reilly out there instead of Duchene or Stastny and vise versa. This is especially true if Sacco is still the coach because he tends to believe in the hot hand way of coaching so if Radar is going through a slump, he might not be getting the same minutes that he’s been getting when he’s been on fire lately. I’d say if he keeps his development up and shows this year isn’t an aberration, he’s going to find himself as one of our top 6 forwards, yeah.
A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day.
Mile High Hockey : Where B- is different than C+
I know I’m high on O’Reilly, but what I’m seeing right now is a 20-year-old kid who is going through and systematically eradicating the weaknesses in his game. Within the next couple years, I can see him bringing in around 70 points a season while making a case for Selke consideration on a consistent basis. And if Landeskog turns into a positively dominant power forward (and is still paired with O’Reilly), he might even help Radar’s totals go up a little.
But O’Reilly could just be a 60pt/season player and max out his talent this year. Or he could work on his hands and maybe even get up into the 80-90 range. I’m just not sure. He’s constantly working on his game – in a few years, he could have sniping abilities like Hejduk or passing abilities like Forsberg or something else entirely. Heck, he could even develop a slapshot similar to Super Joe’s for all I know. Unlikely? Probably, but I don’t put anything past someone with that sort of dedication and work ethic. It just seems like when he sets his mind to something, it gets done.
Just a Colorado girl in Montana who ♥s the Avs and writes for Mile High Hockey.
Plus he does yoga. Anyone else notice Julie Browman looked suspiciously like a freshly risen zombie while she was doing yoga with Radar? That segment during the first intermission report was interesting until it panned over on the sullen, sunken face of one Julie Browman. Goodness, even my wife thought she looked particularly undead in that piece. I thought yoga was supposed to uplift and enlighten…
by quietstorm560 on Jan 3, 2012 2:13 AM MST up reply actions
He isn't the only guy in the NHL with a work ethic
but he simply doesn’t have the hands like Duke or creativity/passing ability of a Forsberg. it just doesn’t exist. You don’t develop those kinds of things as you go along just because you gosh darnit try real hard. He’s playing great right now but it’s still a small blip of his NHL career. I think he’s broken out of the 26 point player he was the last couple years but talking about him as an 80 point player…come on now. It’s cool to be excited about a guy who is enjoying a breakout, turn the corner kind of year but even if he maintained his pace right now he wouldn’t be a 60 point player and that’s with teams not focusing their defensive efforts on him. You take away a 5 game stretch where he had 9 points and he’s on pace for a 45 point season. So right now it’s great to see him developing some offense but seriously…let’s calm down a bit. No need to invoke an all-time great every time one of the young guns does something nice.
A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day.
Mile High Hockey : Where B- is different than C+
So what you’re saying is you don’t draft Langenbrunner with the 2nd overall pick?
The reason I'm in town, in case you're wondering, is because of a Kansas City Shuffle.
DIFFERENT CONVERSATION ENTIRELY
A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day.
Mile High Hockey : Where B- is different than C+
unfortunately Radar is being undersold...
if he continues developing his game and remains a tough to play against two-way forward, he could hit 70 points a season. More than likely he stays in the 60 point range and fluctuates up and down depending on linemates. We don’t want to forget he had a rookie forward and a career bottom-6er as his wingers for a large part of the season so far and he is still on pace for almost 60 points as a 20 year old. He is in a similar situation as Stastny, if he doesn’t get stuck with the Porters, Yips, and Winniks on a scoring line, he should be a very good second line center (first line on some teams).
As for hitting a ceiling… players generally start to “peak” because they generally stop working. Most players only actually handle the puck for a few minutes (combined) a game. This is one reason it is better to have a player develop longer in the minor leagues before reaching the NHL as the can plateau so much faster due to reduced time with the puck (or just decrease in development time of a player’s skills). O’Reilly counteracts this with his incredible work ethic and willingness to stay after practice and continue to develop. So he has not hit his ceiling. Sure he doesn’t have Forsberg level abilities but Peter was not always dominant because of his skillset. It was his willingness to go 100% and to improve every day. Same holds true for players like Kesler and Sharp. Do you think anyone ever expected them to be as good as they are now?
Languishing for Landeskog
I guess if Stastny can score 70, then Radar can too. I think he’s probably more a 50 guy myself. I’ve made this comparison before, but I really see him offensively like a Chris Drury – 50 points, 60 in a good year (and with good linemates), won’t lead the team in scoring but will contribute some big, big goals
on a semi-related note, when I was reading old scouting reports last week about O’Reilly, every single one mentioned his poor skating and I remember thinking that you don’t really see that so much these days. fast forward to last night and I forget who it was, but someone from the Kings was rushing up the wing late in the game and absolutely left O’Reilly in the dust, like it wasn’t even close. Varly came out and played it…which is good, because that race was no contest.
DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jan 3, 2012 8:44 AM MST up reply actions
aha
I went through the scouting reports last night. Saw the skating pop up repeatedly, kind of nodded. Everyone loved his work ethic but shot accuracy and skating were mentioned as problems. O’Reilly is currently shooting 12.5%, which is certainly respectable. He’s improved all 3 years in the NHL, coming up from a Landeskogian 5.9% in his rookie season to 10.9% last season. INTERESTING
A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day.
Mile High Hockey : Where B- is different than C+
I see O’Reilly turning into a Kesler-lite type of guy, in his two way play, I’m just not sure his offensive production will have Kesler’s 85-90 pt. upside… I’d have O’Reilly closer to 75ish, and takes fewer penalties as well.
But at the same time, he’s already ahead of Kesler’s development curve in terms of offense… since he only had 37 pts. in his 3rd full season.
by Mapletreemarty on Jan 3, 2012 8:35 AM MST up reply actions
I was checking for Varly’s amazing .969 sv % tonight when I realized that finally bumped him up to having an overall sv % of .900 and a GAA under 3 again (2.96). Hopefully his stats continue in the right direction. Although that last time his stats were trending upward, he had a bad game and was back under .900 sv % again. Young inconsistent goalie without full time goalie coach is…inconsistent. Great performance out of him tonight, he looked very happy, hopefully it can continue to build his confidence.
I want so much for him to succeed, not only because of the price paid for him, but because I truly like him as a goalie. Avs have needed a #1 for a long time, and he certainly has a ton of talent to fill that void. If the higher ups don’t address their goalie coaching needs by the start of next season, they will have not only failed Varly but they will have failed their entire fan base as well.
The reason I'm in town, in case you're wondering, is because of a Kansas City Shuffle.
___
thanks to @643cade for the video, here’s a gif of Varly’s celebration I just made:
by vtcapsfan99 on Jan 3, 2012 1:54 AM MST reply actions 5 recs
That’s awesome, but do you have video for the 3 seconds prior to him swatting his stick with his glove? That shrug after catching the shot was hilarious
I'm such a huge fan of the Avs I can name who our goalie was FOUR seasons ago! Crazy, right?!
by Guitarpick8120 on Jan 3, 2012 12:02 PM MST up reply actions
and, if possible, the two awesome varly celebrations should be put together into one gif
THE COLORADO AVALANCHE HAVE WON THE STANLEY CUP. RAYMOND BOURQUE: A DREAM COME TRUE!
by Pyotr09AVS! on Jan 3, 2012 12:06 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, the video from @643cade starts with the last shootout attempt. The shrug was rather small and I originally had it but I had to trim the clip some because otherwise the gif cut off the end of the clip, I liked what he did at the end. I can try to add some more to the beginning tonight. Or if you want to play around with it yourself, I could share the video. I’ll post a link to it tonight.
kudos to Mark Rycroft. In the pregame he said this game would be tight and come down to the goalie who played the best. dead on.
DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jan 3, 2012 5:55 AM MST reply actions
Avs are now 9-2 since not replacing Sacco and have held opponents to 2 goals or less in 8 of those 11 games.
DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jan 3, 2012 6:04 AM MST reply actions
You mean
good goaltending is helping us win games? You prankster, you
A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day.
Mile High Hockey : Where B- is different than C+
OP, Original Prankster
DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jan 3, 2012 7:08 AM MST up reply actions
ohhhh wow
A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day.
Mile High Hockey : Where B- is different than C+
LDC
Loki Driscoll-Carignan
2011-2012 Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Vyechnaya Pamyat!
2011-2012 Colorado Avalanche: Chances are rapidly diminishing that this will not suck.
nice
DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jan 3, 2012 12:31 PM MST up reply actions
theme song for DDC the OP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7MK5Esy-L0
Avalanche Hockey: egressing to the mean
3 points behind Minnesota. I think you hear us knocking and I think we’re coming in.
No soup for you!
According to BReynolds (about 3 weeks ago), they are definitely a top-4 NHL team, and there was no way in hell they could ever miss the playoffs. He scoffed at the mere notion…
No soup for you!
Ya
because regression doesn’t exist. It just doesn’t. Because he says so.
A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day.
Mile High Hockey : Where B- is different than C+
I think the whole discussion that has been taking place about Minnesota is interesting. Many here at MHH sort of wrote off advanced stats because we didn’t like what they were telling us about the ‘09-’10 Avs playoff team. Which is funny because that team is now sort of the poster child for a “lucky” team – a team that made the playoffs despite terrible stats.
For those who may not already know, the Oilers blog The Copper ‘n Blue has done a lot of interesting work on advanced stats, and one of the main guys over there, Derek Zona (who is a pretty good statistical analyst, imho), predicted Minnesota’s recent tumble down the standings, mostly based on advanced stats.
He also noted that Colorado was a much better team than their record indicated, and based on advanced stats he also predicted a few weeks ago that Colorado would start winning more games.
I’m not saying advanced stats, or any stats for that matter, are the end-all, be-all. But I do find them interesting, and it’s been interesting over the past few weeks to sort of watch them play out in real life.
No soup for you!
I’m shocked that you could insinuate that a fan board would accept positives about their team and reject negatives.
4th biggest pessimist of MHH.
"There's always next season." -- Jimmy Howard on not winning the Calder Trophy.
Accepting positives and rejecting negatives is one thing… Minnesota fans’ recent outright denial of reality is on a whole new plane of hilarity/absurdity.
No soup for you!
I still think a lot of the “luck” and “unsustainable” stats from the ‘09-’10 team were attributable to their style of play. They scored a lot of their goals off the rush, and most of the NHL had not adapted to the Avs team speed. Fast break hockey is high-risk high-reward, so they spent a lot of time in their own end trying to get possession (seeing lots of shots and attempts), but once they got possession someone was already at the red line with speed.
Odd man rushes score at a higher percentage than shots off the cycle. That’s why the fans lean forward or stand up when a 2-on-1 develops. My impression of advanced stats is that there is an assumption that all shots have the same chance of going in, probably because it’s too hard to put a number on shot quality. They also seem to assume that all teams play the same style, and generate the same quality of chances. I don’t believe this is the case.
The Avs regression during the second half of that season wasn’t luck catching up with them, it was the rest of the league changing their playing style to diminish Colorado’s speed advantage. I would guess that something similar has happened in Minnesota.
OK Shermie, time to be the shepherd
The Avs regression during the second half of that season wasn’t luck catching up with them, it was the rest of the league changing their playing style to diminish Colorado’s speed advantage. I would guess that something similar has happened in Minnesota.
I would find this highly improbable (at least outside the playoffs). This isn’t the NFL where you have a week to change strategies and gameplan against a specific team. You might be able to make some small tweeks here and there, but at the NHL level it seems really impractical to change entire strategies and types of play overnight just to deal with one team, then change again the following game. Especially when playing 3-4 games a week.
My impression of advanced stats is that there is an assumption that all shots have the same chance of going in, probably because it’s too hard to put a number on shot quality. They also seem to assume that all teams play the same style, and generate the same quality of chances.
This is not my interpretation at all. In fact the advanced stats community loves Dan Bylsma because of the work he did in fixing the strategy of Therrian before him. The recognize that styles of play differ.
My personal interpretation is that these may be strategies, but the data doesn’t show that teams are particularly good at creating them. Season-to-season team metrics pretty clearly show that, even on a team coached by the same staff, shooting percentages vary wildly from year to year. If a team is well-coached in this counter-attacking strategy (or some other “High quality” form of strategy) you’d see a team with consistently high shooting percentages from year to year. You just don’t see that.
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 3, 2012 9:38 AM MST up reply actions
If a team is well-coached in this counter-attacking strategy (or some other "High quality" form of strategy) you’d see a team with consistently high shooting percentages from year to year.
The Avs had consistently high shooting percentages for about half a season until other teams adapted. We started to see teams cycling the puck and keeping it low on the offensive zone to slow the Avs breakout. The Avs adapted in ‘10-’11, up went the shooting percentage, and by New Years, the league adapted and the Avs fell off a cliff. The teams the Avs had the most success against were typically willing to try to run with the them. Then came the LAK 5-0 drubbing and the Valentines Day Massacre and everyone in the West had the recipe.
I believe that the fast break type system is more susceptible to wild swings in results when compared to the puck movement systems deployed by Detroit or Pittsburgh because they do depend upon something that is clearly identifiable, namely the odd-man rush. I think that Sacco has seen the error of his ways, and now we are seeing more possession/cycling by the Avs and better defensive discipline. Lo and behold, we are suddenly in the “sustainable” category again.
I guess it could be a coincidence.
I think you can even see the arc of this season in the transition to the new system. Early season success on the East Coast swing came against teams that don’t see the Avs much and let them run. Kids weren’t fully bought in and had success with the old run and gun, especially Jones who thrived in the old system. Then came some Conference and Divisional games and, wammo, massive failure. Sacco cracks the whip, kids start to learn the system, and success follows.
I don’t want to completely discount advanced stats. I just think that some of what they attribute to “Random Chance” can be explained in other ways that create challenges numerically.
OK Shermie, time to be the shepherd
by Busted Twigg on Jan 3, 2012 10:48 AM MST up reply actions
I guess my previous comment still holds. I find it highly improbable that teams were adapting their strategy specifically to the Avs. Maybe little things, like hit them more, but as far as teams changing their entire game plan to a “cycle-down-low” to counter the Avs, I just don’t think it’s feasible for teams to change their strategy on a game-to-game basis this drasticall for specific teams, considering how often they play. Random Chance seems like an extremly more likely scenario without even getting into the numbers.
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 3, 2012 11:14 AM MST up reply actions
Agree. Each team has a style that they try to dictate for 82 games. Some styles dominate others while occasionally your style plays right into the hands of another team. But you don’t switch styles mid-stream to account for a team that represents less than 10% of your opposition for the season.
Remember, defense is easy to coach and implement while offense is generated by talent and dictated by the imagination of the players. Colorado didn’t/doesn’t have the talent to dominate offensively, they rely on goaltending and defense. When those are good/great, you get ‘09-’10. When they suck, you get last season (even when the Avs were winning, they were getting tons of goal support rather than good work in their own end).
If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!
Not to belabor the point
but if a strategy is only good for 1/2 a season, then it’s not really worth a whole lot anyways. It’s still success by smoke and mirrors and unsustainable.
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 3, 2012 12:05 PM MST up reply actions
I think it’s less about a change in strategy as a change in tactics. “Let’s work the cycle tonight and watch for the cherry picker,” as opposed to “Let’s get it to the points and get traffic in front,” is more what I’m talking about. My son’s Midget team would make adjustments like this from game to game and even from period to period. Absolutely it happens in the NHL.
Agreed that the Avs fast break strategy only worked for half a season (thus unsustained), but its failure was not random.
OK Shermie, time to be the shepherd
Of course they make adjustments, but if the strategy was the thing that was so successful, then it would take more than a few adjustments to counter it. If all it took were some in game adjustments, it likely would have been solved in a lot less than half a season. I’m sure coaches, at some point during a game against the avs, said “Let’s cycle the puck down low and try and take away their speed and counter attack”.
So, again, in my opinion the far & away most likely candidate is random variance.
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 3, 2012 1:28 PM MST up reply actions
To simplify what BT is saying. The first half of 2010 the Avs breakout with 10ft+ length passes was effective. In the second half of 2010, those same 10ft+ passes were more like 12ft and the Avs got punched repeatedly in the balls for doing it. Is that coaching? Is that teams catching up the Avs breakouts? Is that just plain conditioning when the speed variable was evened up? Am I asking too many rhetorical questions? I don’t know.
Sorry to use the evil empire as an example but none of their breakout passes are that long. They may be slow, but a lot of that is because the forwards aren’t racing out of their own zone before the puck is possessed out. Modano was there for a month before his interviews were sprinkled with comments like, “you really need to be in top shape with this organization”. IE, no more cherry picking.
I'll keep this brief.
I think the opposing coaches knew fairly early on what adjustments were needed, but it took games like the Valentines Day Massacre for the players to see and understand the kind of commitment it took to beat the Avs speed game. It only took one or two mistakes and the Avs would be up by a couple of goals, at which point, the game would be out of the coach’s control.
OK Shermie, time to be the shepherd
I don’t think you’re giving players enough credit. (And I’m not even convinced the Avs counter-attack style created more scoring chances than a standard offense)
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 3, 2012 2:41 PM MST up reply actions
I am finding this discussion interesting in light of the Caps having to abandon their run and gun system once other teams figured out how to counteract it. That was some fun hockey to watch though. Every once in awhile another team, usually one from the Western conference the Caps rarely play, will be brazen enough to attempt some fire wagon hockey against the Caps and it usually doesn’t go that well for them. The players seem all too happy to revert back to that system for those games, but I am sure that won’t be happening under Hunter.
I do think other teams eventually figure out how to deal with certain systems, especially for teams in their division or conference that they play frequently. I don’t know that they put in that effort for a team they only play once a season. Last season it was odd because Boudreau came up with a perfect plan to deal with Tampa and their 1-3-1 and the Caps and Varly had a lot of regular season success against them. But then the playoffs came and suddenly Boudreau couldn’t coach against them and before we knew it the Caps were swept by Tampa.
The Caps have been a vastly worse team since they went away from that system, FWIW
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 3, 2012 3:11 PM MST up reply actions
Well their playoff results haven’t changed with the system, and that is what they really care about. Montreal trapped the Caps’s run and gun system into oblivion. Last year the Caps changed to a different system and went from being President trophy winners to the first seed in the East (little good either playoff seed did for them).
I think a lot of people don’t pay attention that Boudreau went to a more defensive system last season because the Caps could no longer score, so they had to make changes to reduce GA in order to win. They went from an incredible 2009-10 season when most everyone had career high goals, points and shooting percentage to 2010-11 when everyone had career lows in goals, points, etc. Talk about the entire team regressing to the mean all at once.
Montreal Goaltended the Caps system.
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 3, 2012 4:00 PM MST up reply actions
Are you trying to make me vomit. Please don’t mention Halak. I will hate him forever. I was present at all the Caps home games that playoff series, including the awful game 7 (incidentally I was sitting next to Bettman, Shanaban, and Bill Daly and Shanahan jumped up and cheered for an Ovi goal to tie the game that was later disallowed).
I will hate Jaroslav Halak until the end of my days. And then some more in the next life. Although it’s easy for him to make saves with the Caps are firing only perimeter shots.
We could make a circular argument that their higher shooting percentage proves that the counter-attack created higher quality scoring chances.
As far as giving the players credit… All it took for the Avs to get an early lead (a key component to their ‘09-’10 success) was one mistaken pass to the point. One Avs winger jumps the defenseman and the other breaks for the opposite end. Teams that normally rely on shots from the point will fall back into their old patterns under pressure, and suddenly they are down a goal or two.
OK Shermie, time to be the shepherd
Again I’m not convinced the Avs scored a significant proportion of their goals on the rush, compared to a “traditional” ofense. It’s an interesting hypothesis.
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 3, 2012 3:10 PM MST up reply actions
Corsi numbers suggest that the Avs didn’t spend much time in possession of the puck, further suggesting they didn’t spend much time in a conventional attack, or were oddly efficient at it (which I believe is your point).
Honestly, I’m not willing to spend the time to go back to the video from ‘09 and count goals from breaks versus extended possession. I’m blissfully operating off of 2 year old impressions, and would be happy to be proved wrong by data.
OK Shermie, time to be the shepherd
I don’t blame you, I am also not willing to go back and look at all of that from 2 years ago.
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 3, 2012 4:01 PM MST up reply actions
Also
for all the talk here about Minnesota’s counter-attacking style: They are 12th in the West in Goals For, so their style seems to be “Pray to god that Niklas Backstrom and Josh Harding have save percentages that shame every goaltender in history”
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 3, 2012 2:52 PM MST up reply actions
save percentages that shame every goaltender in history
Which, admittedly, was a key component to the Avs strategy.
OK Shermie, time to be the shepherd
The Avs MANAGEMENT strategy, not necessarily the on-ice strategy.
If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!
Did Sacco have much choice in the matter considering the surrounding talent?
OK Shermie, time to be the shepherd
Colorado packs up their board shorts, sun tan lotion, sunglasses and break out their parkas and toques as they head to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Blackhawks Friday night.
Hey, it’s supposed to be close to 50 here on Friday…that’s almost Indian Summer for goodness sakes
Goalie coach? We don't need no stinking goalie coach!
we can’t have an Indian Summer here in New England because winter hasn’t started yet
DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jan 3, 2012 7:09 AM MST up reply actions
Radar in wins ice time: 19:27 in losses: 17:59
Jay Mc in wins ice time: 14:57 in losses: 13:00
Duchene in wins ice time: 16:15 in losses: 18:15
TJ Galliardi TOI is up about 4 min. per game since November.
McClement TOI is up about 3 min. per game since November.
...holy freaking f*ck, snakes!
Galiardi is playing awesome..
Last year he was too hesitant, and maybe came back too soon from his wrist injury, but it was nice to have the summer to rest and heal up.
by Mapletreemarty on Jan 3, 2012 8:41 AM MST up reply actions
Huge victory
1. We are back into playoff picture.
2. On a first glance LAK is 3rd and we are 8th. In reality we have same amount of points with them having one more game to play. San Jose will surpass them in the standings soon and then we will be right behind LAK in the standings.
3. With our current pace(over 41 games) we will hover around 6-10th place in the standings until the very end, I think. Now we have won 2 games against LAK and if we win one more we will have a tiebreaker over them. Can help us to get into playoffs.
4. We have snapped their 75-ish game “not losing with a lead going into 3rd period”. Huge.
5. Can I get “Cpt. Obvious” badge, please?
Now we have won 2 games against LAK and if we win one more we will have a tiebreaker over them. Can help us to get into playoffs.
Unfortunately head-to-head play is a ways down the hierarchy of tiebreakers. The Regulation/OT Wins (ROW) tiebreaker is going to be our downfall if we are on the bubble.
OK Shermie, time to be the shepherd
yeah, tiebreakers were big until they made the shootout rule change
DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jan 3, 2012 10:04 AM MST up reply actions
What about playoff rules? If we sweep/win season series against LAK, but they end up higher in the standings than us and we meet them in the playoffs, do we get home advantage?
nope, it’s all based on seeding
DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jan 3, 2012 10:11 AM MST up reply actions
I think it’s when you beat a team in 60 minutes… I havn’t seen it done a lot so it’s obviously a tall task.
Paul Stastny did, what Paul Stastny does. Score big goals.
As the person hardest on Varly when he was playing shitty, I am more than happy to see him start regressing to his mean.
Just want to make sure I praise his efforts when he’s playing well, since I critiqued him.
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
If this is his “mean” REGRESS DAMN YOU REGRESS
Paul Stastny did, what Paul Stastny does. Score big goals.
He’s probably playing over his head now, but goalie performance also varies wildly. The “Consistent” goalie is a myth. Goalies post 1.000, .989, .965 save percentages one week, then 2 under the Mason-Budaj line (.900) the following week. too much random chance involved to have a goalie get .915s 6-7 games in a row.
If he finishes the season with a save % of .908or better, he’s done his job. right now he’s at .900 and trending upwards
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 3, 2012 9:41 AM MST up reply actions
Why .908? Is that some magic number for something?
Just a Colorado girl in Montana who ♥s the Avs and writes for Mile High Hockey.
No, just near average for a goalie. I was going to say .910 but that’s a touch high I think.
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 3, 2012 9:56 AM MST up reply actions
Fair enough. I like Varly, but there’s a HUGE difference between his highs and lows. I’d really wish we had someone to help him maybe even out a little. Still, I think he’s going to be good for us going forward.
Just a Colorado girl in Montana who ♥s the Avs and writes for Mile High Hockey.
Or, I suppose hiring certain fiery French-Canadian ex-Av as the next coach would work too.
Just a Colorado girl in Montana who ♥s the Avs and writes for Mile High Hockey.
I put the odds of that happening at just slightly better than me sleeping with Angie Harmon
DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jan 3, 2012 10:30 AM MST up reply actions
THERE’S A CHANCE
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 3, 2012 10:39 AM MST up reply actions
I’ve been wearing my fancy undies every day for the last 8 years, just in case
DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jan 3, 2012 10:39 AM MST up reply actions
At some point, that might start to work against you.
OK Shermie, time to be the shepherd
by Busted Twigg on Jan 3, 2012 10:52 AM MST up reply actions
Look, I love Roy as much as the next Burgundy and Blue-bleeder, but I seriously doubt he’d be a good goalie coach. Nowhere in his life has he exhibited the patience and teaching skills required to be that kind of coach.
If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!
exactly
Duchene may be the face of this franchise, but O’Reilly is the heart. - Guitarpick8120
Mile High Hockey
The Hockey Writers
by Cheryl Bradley on Jan 3, 2012 4:26 PM MST up reply actions
I think Varly has been extremely inconsistent this season, and it’s something new for him, at least compared to last season. I thought that last season Irbe had helped Varly play more consistently and have less games where he let in multiple bad goals. I went back to see what the stats showed versus my memories.
2008-09 Varly played 6 regular season games, 4 with sv % .929 or higher, other two were less than .900.
2009-10 Varly played 26 regular season games, 14 with sv % .900 or higher, 12 less than .900.
2010-11 Varly played 27 regular season games, 23 with sv % .906 or higher, 4 less than .900.
2011-12 Varly has played 27 regular season games, 16 with sv % .900 or higher, 11 less than .900.
It would be really nice if the Avs got Varly a full time coach to work with him and help him be as consistent as he was last season.
I bet his %’s fluxuate from week to week.
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 3, 2012 3:12 PM MST up reply actions
A quick scan of his log from last year and this year reveals that he was good for a sub .900 game every 7 games or so last season and about every 6 games or so through this season.
If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!
I wonder what Luongo’s looked like in the finals…
Paul Stastny did, what Paul Stastny does. Score big goals.
Here’s the link for the lazy: Luongo 2010-2011 Game Log
For the super lazy: 1.000, 0.933, 0.789, 0.800, 1.000, 0.625, 0.850
For comparison, here’s Thomas’: 0.971, 0.909, 0.976, 1.000, 0.960, 0.947, 1.000
If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!
Which is why he won the Conn Smythe.
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 4, 2012 7:55 AM MST up reply actions
Fun Fact:
If the draft was tomorrow, the Caps would own the 12th and 17th overall picks. Guess which is the Avs.
I have a feeling that we might regress some soon (I mean, 9 of 11 is crazy!), but if we can win just a tinch over half of the remaining games, we should make playoffs. And since making playoffs in the west is harder than in the east, if we can make the post season, I don’t think we’ll give up anything worse than 15th overall. If Varly can learn how to consistently play like he did last night, we might even come out on top in this trade.
It’s up to the boys now and how badly they want it. Varly stole that game for us last night – LA deserved the 2pts, not us, but we somehow walked away with 1 more point than them. Good things eventually happen when this team works hard – they just have to keep their heads down and keep going. As long as they don’t panic when they lose a few, we may even be able to avoid the dreaded second-half collapse.
Just a Colorado girl in Montana who ♥s the Avs and writes for Mile High Hockey.
Before the game: Kings fans howling at me, throwing out lots of “Avs Suck!” right in my ear.
After the game: Kings fans surprisingly out of heckles and jeers.
Funny how losing shuts them up awfully fast. I have been a big defender of their fans, but the bandwaggoners have taken over and they are assholes. It’s a shame, really. When the Kings fans I’m with start railing on how bad they are you know things have gone way down hill. Worse, though, is how ridiculous they are with the on-ice calls. Doughty jumps in the air in the full on swan dive and they start chanting about how much the refs suck, even after they’ve seen the replay. Same with the knee-on-knee on Quincey. Galiardi gets whacked over the head and they all cheer about how good of a decision it was for Brown to do it and the refs not to call it. The inability to be objective is rampant. I used to prefer going to LA over Anaheim for these games. Not anymore.
Duchene may be the face of this franchise, but O’Reilly is the heart. - Guitarpick8120
Mile High Hockey
The Hockey Writers
Where I was sitting (section 109) there were these ginger kid avs fans that were about to be pummeled to oblivion because they kept standing up and banging the shit out of the glass and flipping off the entire section. It made Avs fans look just as bad. A couple of guys threw food at them to sit down and then about 7 security guys came down and gave them a talking to and had to stand around to protect them from about 2/3 of the entire section. They were wearing their frat boy gear so everyone was giving them shit and telling them to take off their pledge pins and man up.
Entertaining to say the least. That shootout kicked ass
by GregDaybreak on Jan 3, 2012 11:31 AM MST up reply actions
Same thing happened in Vegas. Every team has douchey fans.
Duchene may be the face of this franchise, but O’Reilly is the heart. - Guitarpick8120
Mile High Hockey
The Hockey Writers
by Cheryl Bradley on Jan 3, 2012 11:59 AM MST up reply actions
bandwaggoners have taken over and they are assholes
This applies to every team.
Paul Stastny did, what Paul Stastny does. Score big goals.
The calm and accepting nature of mature fans comes with age… it’s the band wagoners who have no concept of the sport and walk around with a sense of entitlement that are annoying…
It feels like Bieksa is a 3 time Norris winner around these parts…
Paul Stastny did, what Paul Stastny does. Score big goals.
Doughty jumps in the air in the full on swan dive and they start chanting about how much the refs suck, even after they’ve seen the replay.
Chuh! Worst experts ever.
At exactly what point do you start to realize that life without knowledge is death in disguise?
and what the fuck was Clifford complaining about on the kneeing penalty? idiot.
DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jan 3, 2012 12:30 PM MST up reply actions
Haven't read through all the comments yet
so excuse me if this has been posted.
On the main page over at NHL.com they have a poll “Where would you like the 2013 NHL Winter Classic to be played?”
Currently Denver is in the lead with 26.9% of the votes. Next is Toronto with 24.2% and Other with 18.2%.
Not that they’ll listen, but lets get over there and make a push to keep Denver in the lead.
Datsyuk may have done it first, but he learned it from Peter Forsberg.
Thanks for everything Foppa!
Footer: We'll miss seeing you clear the riff raff off your lawn.
That’s kind of shocking. You’d think the Centre of the Universe would walk away with it… though to be fair, as Chemmy said on Twitter the other day, Leafs fans would be happier with a 25th-ranked PK than an outdoor game
At exactly what point do you start to realize that life without knowledge is death in disguise?
…though to be fair, 90% of the centre of the universe fans don’t live in said Center of the Universe. In fact, it seems like 50% of them live in Denver.
I'll keep this brief.
Wait!
Is there actually a chance of it being played in Denver?
THE COLORADO AVALANCHE HAVE WON THE STANLEY CUP. RAYMOND BOURQUE: A DREAM COME TRUE!
Only if the NHL admits tot he existence of hockey outside of the East Coast….
Datsyuk may have done it first, but he learned it from Peter Forsberg.
Thanks for everything Foppa!
Footer: We'll miss seeing you clear the riff raff off your lawn.
by Americanario on Jan 3, 2012 11:53 AM MST up reply actions
They will only go as far west as Chicago though…sorry
Goalie coach? We don't need no stinking goalie coach!
I thought it was slipped during the Winter Classic that it’s going to be in Detroit?
Duchene may be the face of this franchise, but O’Reilly is the heart. - Guitarpick8120
Mile High Hockey
The Hockey Writers
by Cheryl Bradley on Jan 3, 2012 12:00 PM MST up reply actions
Yeah, the guy who heads up special events in Detroit was there. Now a Red Wings, Avs WC in the Big House in Michigan? That would rock ass
Goalie coach? We don't need no stinking goalie coach!
rather have it in Denver
THE COLORADO AVALANCHE HAVE WON THE STANLEY CUP. RAYMOND BOURQUE: A DREAM COME TRUE!
I’m hearing detroit-toronto is more likely… Tv ratings be damned, how kick ass would it be to see 80,000+ leafs fans storm the big house and boo the wings in michigan?
At exactly what point do you start to realize that life without knowledge is death in disguise?
by SteveHouse on Jan 3, 2012 2:22 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
Only if the NHL admits tot he existence of hockey outside of the East Coast….
Datsyuk may have done it first, but he learned it from Peter Forsberg.
Thanks for everything Foppa!
Footer: We'll miss seeing you clear the riff raff off your lawn.
And jibbled…..
Datsyuk may have done it first, but he learned it from Peter Forsberg.
Thanks for everything Foppa!
Footer: We'll miss seeing you clear the riff raff off your lawn.
by Americanario on Jan 3, 2012 11:53 AM MST up reply actions
Advanced Stats question for jibbs
So if shooting percentage is mostly luck or chance, that means that any given year, the amount of goals one scores is chance, why is it that there are some players that consistently score a lot like iginla, stamkos, kessel, etc.? Or does it not work that way? hahaha
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
I can’t speak for Jibbs but, look at those player’s SOG. They consistently get more shots on goal and the %s just keep up from there. When Duchene said he wants more shots on goal this year, he’s essentially saying he wants to score more goals.
I'll keep this brief.
Bingo
create shots on goal. The more the better.
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 3, 2012 2:42 PM MST up reply actions
iirc, Kovy was the only one who potentially sustained an unsustainable shooting % over several seasons.
Don’t know if he’s now ready to spend the next 16 years or so of his contract regressing to the mean, but….
2011-2012 Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Vyechnaya Pamyat!
2011-2012 Colorado Avalanche: Chances are rapidly diminishing that this will not suck.
Well Kovalchuk is a special beast. He’s the one guy everyone clearly notices has special shooting talent. It’s not that shooting percentage is all luck. It’s that it’s mostly luck (or more specifically, it’s about what you would expect from random chance…)
Of course one thing that really gets lost in this discussion is that everything is everything is compared to an average NHL player. Obviously those guys all have shooting skill that’s lights out better than anyone you or I know. But they don’t play against you or I, they play against each other where their skills are normalized. Put them in a beer league and I bet they would appear to have tremendous shot percentages.
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 3, 2012 2:56 PM MST up reply actions
Actually Semin has done it as well.
Season S%
2003-04 10.9
2006-07 15.6
2007-08 14.1
2008-09 15.2
2009-10 14.4
2010-11 14.3
2011-12 13.7
Career 14.4
well look at that. sign him, have him teach Landy, heh
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
I’d just as soon Landy didn’t know how to float, thanks all the same.
2011-2012 Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Vyechnaya Pamyat!
2011-2012 Colorado Avalanche: Chances are rapidly diminishing that this will not suck.
Semin isn’t Ovechkin. He is actually a good defensive player when he’s not being a complete head case or playing injured. Dale Hunter has been pleased with him so far. He takes a lot of dumb penalties trying to steal the puck, but they are penalties Ovi would never take as he floats around the zone.
Actually I think you can make an argument for Ovi if he’s a good possession player, but I don’t think he has been this season. But if his line has control of the puck while they are on ice, how is the other team going to score?
check your meter
2011-2012 Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Vyechnaya Pamyat!
2011-2012 Colorado Avalanche: Chances are rapidly diminishing that this will not suck.
Not fair to use sarcasm on the person who slept 4 hours last night and is about to fall asleep on my desk at work. I’m too stupid to understand anything other than direct statements right now. At least I made a Varly celebration gif though last night!!!
I haven’t done the full staatistical comparison to Kovy…
That said, there’s some disagreement about how many (and which) playersa have shown an ability to shoot above league average (normalizing for position, etc). Gabe says 1-2, others have a longer list.
what there is agreement in is that even among those who do, it is far more important to get a lot of shots than to have superhuman shooting ability.
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 3, 2012 3:24 PM MST up reply actions
Mike Bossy scored 573 goals on 2705 shots in his 9 season career. If my math is correct that is a career shooting percentage of 21.2%, slightly above league average.
Varly!
by niwotsblessing on Jan 3, 2012 6:41 PM MST up reply actions
Way way way different era. Apples and Oranges (and really shitty goaltending)
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 3, 2012 11:08 PM MST up reply actions
Actually, the correct term is HOW THE FUCK CAN YOU CALL THAT goaltending.
If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!
Billy Smith & Ken Dryden want a word with you
Varly!
by niwotsblessing on Jan 4, 2012 1:13 PM MST up reply actions
Go back and watch those two, then watch five minutes of any current NHL goalie. Hell, even a shit one like Raycroft. Tell me the position isn’t 99% different.
Also, both of those guys were good athletes and did things that most goalies of their era didn’t, like use their hands and sticks effectively instead of flailing away with skate blades…
If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!
Fact
Patrick Roy once easily won a Save percentage title at .900
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 4, 2012 3:53 PM MST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Mile High Hockey
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
