How the Avalanche Can Win the West (Or at Least Make the Playoffs)
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jan 30, 2012 7:00 AM MST
in Avalanche By The Numbers
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The Colorado Avalanche went into the All-Star break with a very disappointing loss to the Minnesota Wild. The outcome wasn't the worst part - it was that the Avs had a chance to make a statement but failed to bring their, uh, "A" game. Colorado has 31 games left and, at 54 points, figure to need 42 more points to secure a playoff spot. 17 of their remaining games are against a team currently in a playoff seed, leaving 13 against outside-looking-in teams. 10 of those 13 are against the 5 worst teams in the league - Anaheim, Buffalo, Carolina, Edmonton and Columbus. They currently 3-3 against those dreggy teams; that will not cut it. It's almost a 50-50 split in terms of home and road; in fact it will be 15 of each after the Avs play in Edmonton on Tuesday.
So, what's working and what needs fixing? Well, let's take a look at how the Avalanche compare against the 14 other Western Conference teams. Colorado is 11th in the conference in scoring, averaging 2.43 goals a game. And they are 13th in goals allowed (2.82). And if that doesn't put you in a happy place, consider that the Avs have allowed 20 more goals than they have scored; only one Western Conference team - Columbus - has a worse goal differential. Okay, the Avs have an anemic offense and some inconsistent goaltending. Not news.
Digging a little deeper, the Avs rank 6th in the conference in shots per game and 7th in shots allowed. Both of those numbers are a bit surprising to me, and in both categories the Avs are about 2 shots per game better than last year. So, with shot totals like these, why aren't the Avs putting up better numbers? Perhaps this is where you have to single out specific players. Semyon Varlamov has played some great hockey, but hasn't gotten the job done enough between the pipes. And, 6 million dollar man Paul Stastny is second in team scoring with 30 points. NINETY-NINE players have more points than that this year, including 7 defensemen and 3 rookies and 2 players from the friggin' Minnesota Wild. Oh, and Matt Duchene, I hope you got a chance to take in the All-Star game while rehabbing that injury. Did watching John Tavares in the game sting? How about the fact that he has double your point total right now? Double. Come back pissed off, young man. We need you.
At first glance, the Avs' powerplay is humming along nicely - 4th in the conference. But only 2 Western teams have had fewer chances, and the Avs' dreadfully bad home PP (13.6%) is a head-scratcher. And the PK? Well, it is better than last year and there have been some great stretches. At the end of the day, though, only Columbus in the West has allowed more PP goals. Not good.
One other thing the Avalanche need to change: 2nd period play. The Avs are -4 in goal differential in the 1st period, -4 in the 3rd and +2 in Overtime. In the 2nd, they are -14. Not sure exactly what is causing the team to suck so much more in the 2nd than the others - you wouldn't think the longer change would be a negative for such a young team
There you have it. The Avalanche need Varlamov to play better or J.S. Giguere to play more. The Avs' star forwards - Matt Duchene, Paul Stastny and Milan Hejduk - need to start putting some points on the board. It wouldn't hurt to get some more production out of David Jones and T.J. Galiardi as well (yeah, Gally is playing well...but he still has just 14 points). Here's an odd stat: the Avalanche 8 forwards with at least as many goals as assists. For whatever reason, Avalanche forwards don't seem to be registering a lot of assists. This is troubling. I have a moderate amount of confidence that Varly can turn things around; and if he can't, Giguere should be able to carry the load. But this team has been in an offensive funk all season long and I'm just not sure that's going to change. It's time for the Avs' still-pretty-young guns to load the six shooters with live ammo. That's what they need to do to make it in the West.
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It’d help our goal differential a lot if the defensemen would quit making boneheaded pinches and letting the other team get easy breakaways.
Colorado Avalanche: PROMOTING itchy playoff beards since '10
by FiveJeffFingerDiscount on Jan 30, 2012 7:09 AM MST reply actions
wouldn’t have been enough words
DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jan 30, 2012 7:24 AM MST up reply actions 2 recs
and try harder.
"Put stick on ice, put puck in net"
by HeyPeterman on Jan 30, 2012 9:59 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
Getting Duchene back should fix a good chunk of the offensive issues.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
real Duchene?
or this season’s Duchene?
Cap Floor Team = Cap Floor Results
by Cole D Hamilton on Jan 30, 2012 7:40 AM MST up reply actions
either will help
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 12:29 PM MST up reply actions
Real Duchene would get them into the middle of the playoff teams, this season’s would keep them in the hunt in April
Mission 48.3 Accomplished!
by patrit19 on Jan 30, 2012 2:41 PM MST via iPhone app up reply actions
In my mind, Varly is very key to the Avs making the playoffs. If he isn’t playing well enough to start 2 out of 3 games, this team isn’t a playoff team. JSG is a good goaltender and is awesome with the D, but I have my doubts whether he can play well in enough games down the stretch to get the points we need.
"He who fucks nuns will later join the church." -The Clash
Serious question…why do you have doubts about JSG?
Duchene may be the face of this franchise, but O’Reilly is the heart. - Guitarpick8120
Mile High Hockey - Asst. Editor
The Hockey Writers - Avalanche Correspondent
by Cheryl Bradley on Jan 30, 2012 9:38 AM MST up reply actions
I don’t have doubts about his game, although it remains to be seen how often he can play and be effective. The thing is, if Varly is playing poorly then the games JSG doesn’t play won’t get the team enough points to make the cut.
If Varly is playing well enough to start consistently, I think JSG handles the backup role a lot better. The Avs need almost a point-and-a-half per game down the stretch and I just don’t see that happening without Varly winning a bunch of games.
"He who fucks nuns will later join the church." -The Clash
I agree that Varly needs to win, but I don’t see any reason why JSG can’t take 2 games to Varly’s 1.
Duchene may be the face of this franchise, but O’Reilly is the heart. - Guitarpick8120
Mile High Hockey - Asst. Editor
The Hockey Writers - Avalanche Correspondent
by Cheryl Bradley on Jan 30, 2012 10:31 AM MST up reply actions
Do you see JSG winning 16 more games before the end of the season? Because that’s about what it would take if Varly only wins 4 or 5.
"He who fucks nuns will later join the church." -The Clash
If the Avs have 54 points now, the number as it stands is 91 for a playoff spot; though I think that will rise. That’s 37 points or 18-12-1.
I think I can see Varly winning 7 and Jiggy winning 11.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
18-12-1 seems in reach
Mission 48.3 Accomplished!
by patrit19 on Jan 30, 2012 2:43 PM MST via iPhone app up reply actions
It won’t be easy, but think of how well we have been playing without our top forwards showing up. We just gotta hold out a couple more weeks for Duchene and I really hope Hejduk did some reflection this past week and wants to go on another playoff run.
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 2:48 PM MST up reply actions
That is only going 3-2 over each 5 game segment. I think that is possible.
Avalanche Hockey: egressing to the mean
That gets 91 points. Right now that’s the guess, but that could rise.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
95 I believe is the shoe in
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 3:13 PM MST up reply actions
Right, that’s true, that’s 20-10-1 essentially.
That is more difficult, but the good teams will do it.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
I think we can do it. I have said it from the beginning of this season, I believe in this team.
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 3:16 PM MST up reply actions
Avs missed it in 07 with 95 points, didn’t they?
Mission 48.3 Accomplished!
by patrit19 on Jan 30, 2012 4:08 PM MST via iPhone app up reply actions
I think I can see Varly winning 7 and Jiggy winning 11.
Ok, how many games do you see each tender getting? JSG is pretty consistent, to win 12 games he will need to play about 20. Do you think that Varly then wins 7 out of 11 as a backup? If he’s playing that well, wouldn’t he deserve more time?
"He who fucks nuns will later join the church." -The Clash
Well, it’s hard for me to argue when you added a predication that “Giguere must start 20 to get 12 wins”. If Giguere must start 20, then I think Varly would only get 6 wins as most.
However, without that construct, I envision Giguere winning 12 out of 17 or 18 and Varly winning 7 out of 12 or 13. Further, I think one goalie will have a hot streak and I would predict that the Avs have a 5 or 6 game winning streak in March based on their schedule and their apparent fluxuation of play.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
FIRE SACCO
Forever grateful that Joe Sakic isn't a raging dick hole like Brett Favre.
by Rather Dashing on Jan 30, 2012 9:30 AM MST up reply actions
Low assist totals implies to me that most of the goals are coming on turnovers. Steal, maybe one pass, score. Would I be wrong there? My confirmation bias is telling me the avs almost never score after having good possession, even among top lines, and actually seem more prone to, after the puck is finally cleared, give up a hand made scoring chance soon.
At exactly what point do you start to realize that life without knowledge is death in disguise?
by SteveHouse on Jan 30, 2012 8:13 AM MST via Android app reply actions
Look at the possession numbers though. They’ve been pretty good. I think Sacco has insituted a more possession based game as opposed to the run and gun version from the last two years. In doing so, the teams’ scoring hasn’t caught back up and a few players (Duchene and Jones) haven’t yet adapted to it entirely. I know Duchene will, there’s no doubt, but it takes time.
See when a coach actually coaches instead of being fired, he changes sytems to make the team better. Sacco wants more possession and a different defensive to neutral zone system. That system will work, but it takes time to flourish. Factor and Landy were the two playres who adjusted the most quickly, which is why I think Factor’s numbres have risen, and Duchene, Stastny, Jones, etc haven’t yet.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
But that train of thought implies a level of infallibility in Sacco’s new possession scheme. In that it’s only a matter of time before it generates success across the board with this team. Is that something you believe?
If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!
I think if he is progressing at the rate he should, then yes. With that said, the players need to progress in skill as they get older and they need to adjust to the system at the same rate. On top of that, addition to the team (OMGATOPSIXWINGER) would need to fit as well. I like the system Sacco has instituted this year and I think it more likely yields a better outcome than the run and gun style.
Yet, he could fuck it up by a) giving up on it, b) messing with it, c) not getting his players behind it, and/or d) simply mismanage the team.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
That sounds about right to me. It also seems like a large portion of assists go to the defense. Which makes me wonder are our setup guys (yes I am looking at you Paul) are not setting people up or are guys not moving without the puck, not working to get open and into good scoring areas. Is there to much standing around and watching the play happen when guys don’t have the puck.
Avalanche Hockey: egressing to the mean
yeah, this is kind of where my head was at too. Maybe I’m seeing it wrong, but our assist numbers seem really really low up front
DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jan 30, 2012 8:21 AM MST up reply actions
I think it may have something to do with how our best passing and playmaking center is now camping at the net trying to deflect shots from the point.
I have no numbers or facts to back this up, but my gut tells me that Stastny has spent a lot more time in close on the net than he ever has.
4th biggest pessimist of MHH.
"There's always next season." -- Jimmy Howard on not winning the Calder Trophy.
maybe a factor of stewie/jones
Cap Floor Team = Cap Floor Results
by Cole D Hamilton on Jan 30, 2012 9:15 AM MST up reply actions
Give Paul a break. He has played the whole season with Yip and Yip on his wings.
We see a wonderful sun-soaked city nestled at the foot of the Rocky Mountains. Enos sees nickels and dimes.
by Bob in Boulder on Jan 30, 2012 9:33 AM MST up reply actions
i am wondering what the assist total for whole team is not just forwards as this could indicate a better cycle to the dmen and getting them involved vs an issue with our forwards. it seems to me the forwards have involve the d more and have deposited rebounds from defensive shots alot this year maybe just my imagination though because i am not a stats person
Our Universe is so Humongous Big - Illya Bryzgalov
Don't worry be happy right now - Illya Bryzgalov
by Freakoffaleash on Jan 30, 2012 1:52 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
this can be supported by the fact that our defense is probably in the top ten (at least) in point production in the league.
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 2:41 PM MST up reply actions
It is funny how hockey (and pretty more all sports) come down to two simple ideas if you want to win more games.
1. Give up less goals
2. Score more goals
The trick is what do you change in order to accomplish those 2 very simple ideas. Just like business if you want to be more successful, sell more shit and/or do it with lower costs.
Avalanche Hockey: egressing to the mean
John Madden made himself a nice chunk of money out of common sense talk like that
Goalie coach? We don't need no stinking goalie coach!
I think I should become a business consultant. I can come up with the next great business idea like TQM and Lean and Six Sigma. I will just go around writing books and working with companies telling them they need simplify there business strategies down to two basica ideas. Make more money and spend less money.
Sadly if I wrote one 200 page book using some stupid metaphor involving a mouse or pizza place I would probably make a couple million doing exactly this.
Avalanche Hockey: egressing to the mean
Partner with Zoro Tolstoy or Dario and you can make it a 500 page masterwork and make 10s of millions.
OK Shermie, time to be the shepherd
by Busted Twigg on Jan 30, 2012 9:49 AM MST up reply actions
That would be irony, writing a very long business book about keeping things simple. Sadly it would probably sell more copies that way.
Avalanche Hockey: egressing to the mean
I’d bet a couple of mil would make you feel less sad.
"In my experience, there's no such thing as luck" -Obi Wan Kenobi
O'Reilly works harder than you
ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
Sadly if I wrote one 200 page book using some stupid metaphor involving a mouse or pizza place I would probably make a couple million doing exactly this.
Fail. Very, very few people (other than the publishers) make any money off publishing books. Stick to being a consultant. Much more money to be made just by walking in the company’s door and saying the same stuff.
Very true. The book would basically be used for marketing. Get a VP in every fortune 500 company to read the book and like it and I would probably make a ton more in speaking engagements and consulting fees.
Avalanche Hockey: egressing to the mean
For marketing professionals? More likely they will buy it just to have it on a bookshelf so other people will see it and assume the marketing professional read it.
4th biggest pessimist of MHH.
"There's always next season." -- Jimmy Howard on not winning the Calder Trophy.
Your statement seems obvious on the surface, but there is an optimization problem that needs to be solved. Go all defensive, and you end up in a lot of shutout shootouts (0-0 in regulation/OT). Go all in for offense and you end up with NFL scores. The challenge that Sacco has is to balance his team so that game by game they end up with a positive goal differential. Since there is so little time between games, he can’t be jumping between systems depending upon the opponent, so he needs to get a baseline scheme in that they can tweak from game to game.
OK Shermie, time to be the shepherd
by Busted Twigg on Jan 30, 2012 9:30 AM MST up reply actions
The challenge that Sacco has is to balance his team so that game by game they end up with a positive goal differential
I agree with you Twigg and I am not saying it is an easy task at all, but according to DDC he seems to be failing at this task. Amazingly we are still over .500 even though we get outscored in every period especially the middle one.
Avalanche Hockey: egressing to the mean
Well the Avs lead the league in one-goal games…..so when they win it’s close, but rarely do they blow out a team (Ottawa and New Jersey notwithstanding).
It’s more likely that they lose big, and that will tweak those numbers. The Avs have 13 games in which they lost by 3 or more goals (56.5% of their loses), in 4 of those they lost by 4+ goals. On the other side, they’ve only won 5 games by 3 or more goals (19.2% of wins).
Datsyuk may have done it first, but he learned it from Peter Forsberg.
Thanks for everything Foppa!
Footer: We'll miss seeing you clear the riff raff off your lawn.
by Americanario on Jan 30, 2012 11:35 AM MST up reply actions
That’s the whole thing, isn’t it? The offensive system (whatever anyone thinks it was) two seasons ago was zowie, huh? Gave up many goals, would have been worse if Craig Anderson wasn’t all world.
About the comment below, and Sacco failing, all he can do is work with the “talent” he’s been given. There is clearly more “talent” on this team at D than on O. He also probably didn’t expect his four main offensive “weapons” from last season to all underperform.
This team is undertalented and underfunded. It’s a minor miracle they’re still in the playoff conversation.
i completely agree that it is a minor miracle we are still competing, imagine what the avs can do if our top players actually play like top players.
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 3:17 PM MST up reply actions
Here’s an odd stat: the Avalanche 8 forwards with at least as many goals as assists. For whatever reason, Avalanche forwards don’t seem to be registering a lot of assists.
Julie says, “They need to do a better job of sharing the ball.”
We see a wonderful sun-soaked city nestled at the foot of the Rocky Mountains. Enos sees nickels and dimes.
by Bob in Boulder on Jan 30, 2012 9:30 AM MST reply actions 2 recs
Less vodka between quarters.
Datsyuk may have done it first, but he learned it from Peter Forsberg.
Thanks for everything Foppa!
Footer: We'll miss seeing you clear the riff raff off your lawn.
by Americanario on Jan 30, 2012 11:35 AM MST up reply actions
When ever I see Galiardi in a top 6 spot, I don’t think of playoffs.
by Pinchy The Lobster on Jan 30, 2012 9:38 AM MST reply actions
do you think of gladiator movies?
DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jan 30, 2012 9:40 AM MST up reply actions
Have you ever been in a Turkish prison?
We see a wonderful sun-soaked city nestled at the foot of the Rocky Mountains. Enos sees nickels and dimes.
by Bob in Boulder on Jan 30, 2012 9:41 AM MST up reply actions
The one on Midnight Express will drive you to bite some snitch’s tongue right out of his mouth.
We see a wonderful sun-soaked city nestled at the foot of the Rocky Mountains. Enos sees nickels and dimes.
by Bob in Boulder on Jan 30, 2012 10:37 AM MST up reply actions
Well, Scraps is a boy dog.
OK Shermie, time to be the shepherd
by Busted Twigg on Jan 30, 2012 9:51 AM MST up reply actions
We see a wonderful sun-soaked city nestled at the foot of the Rocky Mountains. Enos sees nickels and dimes.
by Bob in Boulder on Jan 30, 2012 11:31 AM MST up reply actions
Matt Duchene, I hope you got a chance to take in the All-Star game while rehabbing that injury. Did watching John Tavares in the game sting?
Unfortunately, I do believe he was fishing during the game.
Duchene may be the face of this franchise, but O’Reilly is the heart. - Guitarpick8120
Mile High Hockey - Asst. Editor
The Hockey Writers - Avalanche Correspondent
funny coincidence. he was fishing, I was trolling
DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jan 30, 2012 9:43 AM MST up reply actions
The Avs’ star forwards – Matt Duchene, Paul Stastny and Milan Hejduk – need to start putting some points on the board. It wouldn’t hurt to get some more production out of David Jones and T.J. Galiardi as well
DDC you forgot about McCleod and Kobasew? I thought they were clear offensive contributors. McCleod showed alot of potential 3 or 4 years ago and Kobasew has had 3 20 goal seasons in his career.
Avalanche Hockey: egressing to the mean
“Former” 20 goal scorer has to be the absolutely biggest red flag in the history of free agents.
I'll keep this brief.
Other than “late bloomer in the Swedish Elite League,” you mean?
We see a wonderful sun-soaked city nestled at the foot of the Rocky Mountains. Enos sees nickels and dimes.
by Bob in Boulder on Jan 30, 2012 10:28 AM MST up reply actions
Jason Blake: former 40 goal scorer
Mission 48.3 Accomplished!
by patrit19 on Jan 30, 2012 2:48 PM MST via iPhone app up reply actions
TJ Hensick: Imaginary 50 point scorer.
We see a wonderful sun-soaked city nestled at the foot of the Rocky Mountains. Enos sees nickels and dimes.
by Bob in Boulder on Jan 30, 2012 2:50 PM MST up reply actions 3 recs
Has he had 50 points since?
Peter McNabb thinks I'm outstanding.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Jan 30, 2012 3:38 PM MST up reply actions
biggest fail ever
he declined (or some may say regressed) so hard. He went from 56 to 37 to 23 to 12 to 15 to playing in the AHL the past two years. It really is an anomaly.
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 2:52 PM MST up reply actions
I think Joe Thorton is THAT good. Setoguchi, I suspect has inflated numbers as well.
I'll keep this brief.
I completely agree, sort of like how Stastny’s were inflated in his rookie year.
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 2:56 PM MST up reply actions
at least his goal totals.
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 2:56 PM MST up reply actions
Na, cuz he actually has skill. He hasn’t declined that hard and i think part of the decline has to do with a lack of wingers. I predict Stastny goes at almost a point per game pace after the all star break.
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 3:10 PM MST up reply actions
He had as many or more the next year and in 09-10
At exactly what point do you start to realize that life without knowledge is death in disguise?
by SteveHouse on Jan 30, 2012 3:51 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
his rookie was 28, then 24, then 11 (in 45 games projects to about 20), then 20, then 22. I see Stastny more as in that lower 20’s goal scorer, but getting bunches of assists. This year his goals are on par if not a little better, but he isn’t gettin his assists.
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 3:55 PM MST up reply actions
My Two Cents
1) The Avs need more goal scoring from anywhere they can get it. I’m looking primarily at Dutchy, SoS and Jones to pick it up. 2) Varlamov needs to stand on his head the rest of the season. I have no rational suggestion on how to get a goalie’s mojo back.
"'The powers that we gave the federal government are few and well-defined, and restricted mostly to external affairs. Those left with the people and the states are indefinite and numerous." - James Madison, Federalist Paper #45
We must reject the idea that every time a law's broken, society is guilty rather than the lawbreaker. It is time to restore the American precept that each individual is accountable for his actions.
Ronald Reagan
Standing on his head will at least make it more difficult for the opposition to score on him 5-hole.
Datsyuk may have done it first, but he learned it from Peter Forsberg.
Thanks for everything Foppa!
Footer: We'll miss seeing you clear the riff raff off your lawn.
by Americanario on Jan 30, 2012 11:38 AM MST up reply actions
I’d be worried about an aneurysm.
OK Shermie, time to be the shepherd
by Busted Twigg on Jan 30, 2012 8:53 PM MST up reply actions
I still say they won't make the playoffs.
But as long as they’re not bottom 10 in the NHL, I’ll be happy. They can build on that and make the playoffs next year.
If we don’t make the playoffs hopefully we can pick up a good young forward early in the draft that will help…..Damn it!
Avalanche Hockey: egressing to the mean
Thankfully it is a very deep draft and we should be able to get a talented player in the second….Son of a bitch!
Well at least in exchange for those first two picks we got a young, talented and consistent goaltender who is our #1 goal….Fuck
Avalanche Hockey: egressing to the mean
it’s okay, our farm system is teaming with young prospects who are ready to make jump to….oh hell!
DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jan 30, 2012 11:05 AM MST up reply actions
okay, there’s always free agency…oh crap
DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Jan 30, 2012 11:06 AM MST up reply actions
You’re in a bad mood today huh?
One thing that people seem to overlook is that if there ever a draft to give up the 1st round pick, it might be this one. If the Avs are a lottery pick, that’s a mistake and will haunt the team. But after that, it’s a deep draft, but a deep defensive draft.
I do wonder if Pracey and Company were aware of that when shipping the pick off.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
Not really in a bad mood. Just frustrated because when I think that we will improve in the offseason I start to wonder how we will improve. It won’t be through the draft at least not in the short term and with the way the team spends money I am not sure if it will happen via FA. I hope that we will actually go out and spend a little in the offseason, but I will have to see it to believe it. Plus we still need to sign alot of guys of our own and we may have a short period of time to do it if there is any labor unrest which could make it more difficult.
Avalanche Hockey: egressing to the mean
My financial investment in this team next year is riding on a very interesting offseason. If it’s another $48.6 year with more “build from within” overtures or they expect me to be impressed with just re-signing this same group, then I see myself just sitting back and waiting for those $10 stubhub specials instead of purchasing tickets from TicketWhores.
If I want to spend money and have nothing to show for it but regret and shame, I’ll go to Vegas.
4th biggest pessimist of MHH.
"There's always next season." -- Jimmy Howard on not winning the Calder Trophy.
If I want to spend money and have nothing to show for it but regret and shame, I’ll go to Vegas.
I’d go the internet porn route. No baggage fees.
If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!
pft, you can get that shit fo free.
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 3:58 PM MST up reply actions
Worrying about re-signing is absurd, this time fram was well planned. Even Stewart was only signed until this summer so the front office can fully assess and adjust. Duchene, Factor, Johnson, Mueller will all be re-signed and likely at a good price. Duchene should get Tavares numbers.
After that, Sherman will assess with regard to Hejduk (what he wants), O’Brien, Jones, Kobasew. He will then assess trading Quincey or Wilson for the future.
Once that’s done, they will still have cap space. At that point, all my optimism and my business model will come into play. It makes financial sense, it makes capitalistic business sense, for Kroenke to spend some money to add to his team. I firmly believe he will and I am basing it on a financial model, not blind fandom or some sort of necessary hope in order to make me watch the team.
Labor unrest can only help the Avs because they wouldn’t lose any players and at best, there will be additions available.
I get frustrated too. I almost broke my iPad after the Wild loss, but whenever they lose and I ask myself “how can this team get any better? What will happen?”. I think of think: “Duchene, Johnson, Factor, Varly, Landeskog, Mueller, Galiardi, and Elliott are 23 years old or younger.” Let that soak in. That is the bulk of the team and all those players are damn good. Some are superstar caliber. That doesn’t even include Stastny and Quincey (26) or Wilson (24). Things are good, they just need time to come together.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
If the past has shown one thing, it’s that the Kroenke’s know how to make a dollar. Hopefully he is following the same business plan.
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 12:40 PM MST up reply actions
It was actually going over his investment models in the past that led me to this. Otherwise, I would feel like Bob. But I saw how Kroenke has invested before and it fits perfectly with what is happening now.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
do it up Kroenke!
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 12:51 PM MST up reply actions
Did you ever consider that Kroenke makes his money by offering up crappy products to these people?
As far as we know, we’re just more fat, shirtless guys buying our ration of chicken and dumplings.
4th biggest pessimist of MHH.
"There's always next season." -- Jimmy Howard on not winning the Calder Trophy.
His investments are driven on a much different model. Most of it is land development, a super risky and very difficult business. But his investments have run on a similar model to other successful capitalists, as expected, and I see that model fitting perfectly to the Avs.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
Duchene should NOT get Tavares numbers. He should be a little cheaper. Tavares is clocking over a point per game this season…Duchene…not so much.
by BraxtanFILM on Jan 30, 2012 12:46 PM MST up reply actions
I agree, maybe .3 mill less
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 12:47 PM MST up reply actions
Ok. I guess that is a minor detail of my post, but sure, he should get less based on production. I imagine Duchene will get somewhere close to Tavares numbers.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
In regards to resigning our guys, I worry that we will have to outbid some dumb ass owner from another team. Someone willing to give Tavares type money to Factor or higher than Tavares money to Duchene or Shea Weber type money (at least what he willl get) to Johnson. It would make me feel better as a fan if we got a few of these guys locked up before season’s end.
Avalanche Hockey: egressing to the mean
They are RFA’s. If people didn’t offer sheet Stamkos, they aren’t offer sheeting Duchene. Plus, no one is going to do that THIS summer with the labor issue on the horizon.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
This also assumes that people like Duchene (who loves this franchise) and Johnson (whom this franchise has shown great love for in trading for him and giving him another chance) would be somewhat disloyal and actually sign the offer sheets.
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 2:45 PM MST up reply actions
And the offer sheets would even happen, which, they won’t.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
when was the last offer sheet offered? Do you know?
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 3:03 PM MST up reply actions
Not recently. If Stamkos or Doughty was not offer sheet-ed, then Duchene and Johnson won’t be.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
I agree with that
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 3:13 PM MST up reply actions
Yet many people suggested at the time that the Avs should have offer sheeted Varly instead of trading for him. It seems that offer sheets just don’t happen in today’s NHL. Also, the Caps were likely would have matched an offer sheet.
Yeah, I didn’t think the Avs should have offer sheeted Varly, All he does is sign, it is matched and now you’re trying to trade with a pissed off Capitals team, hahaha
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 3:30 PM MST up reply actions
And they WANTED him. BADLY. That is damn clear. They did what they had to. If you don’t think the Avs didn’t offer something less and had that pushed upwards, you’re thinking absolutely illogically.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
I agree and given how this season is going, I’m alright with the trade.
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 3:40 PM MST up reply actions
I agree that they wanted him badly, because they made sure to win the bidding, and we know there were five other teams interested in him. Now why the Avs put so much into acquiring a young goalie to grow with the team and yet refuse to provide the goalie coach to help him maximize his potential is another story. I don’t fault them so much for the trade, but if they weren’t wanting to hire a full time goalie coach, why not try to sign a another veteran goalie to play with Jiggy.
I’m really starting to lean toward the “Varly wants HIS goalie coach, who unfortunately was already under contract in Russia, so he has to make due this year” camp on the goalie coach issue.
If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!
Varly got along just fine with Irbe. I think Irbe helped him and Neuvy and Theo out a lot in the two years he worked with the Caps. I am wondering about Dave Prior though, Neuvy is not doing so hot this season. Prior also does scouting and is responsible for picking Varly in the first round and then Neuvy in the second, I think he’s good in that area. But I wonder about his coaching, although he has a good reputation, but what has happened to Neuvy this season? He has worse stats than Varly which is saying a lot considering how bad Varly’s are.
The KHL doesn’t seem to care all that much about contracts, at least not player contracts. Not sure how hard poaching a coach would be, it would burn some bridges for sure. I actually don’t know the length of Jussi Parkkila’s KHL contract with SKA, have we ever seen anything definitive that it was only a year? He is very close to Varly though, he came to visit him in Washington last spring after the KHL season was over.
the Avs should have offer sheeted Varly
If Varly had signed it, it would have blown his KHL leverage (it’s an NHL contract). It wasn’t going to happen.
OK Shermie, time to be the shepherd
by Busted Twigg on Jan 30, 2012 8:59 PM MST up reply actions
I think it might’ve been the Sharks offer-sheeting Hjalmerson (sp) after the Hawks won the Cup. Because the Hawks were in salary cap hell that year.
good call, I think that was the last one. Then the Hawks matched that and didn’t re-sign Niemi.
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 3:31 PM MST up reply actions
And thus the Sharks master plan comes to fruition.
If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!
I was thinking whether they forced them to sign one so they could have the other. Really really clever. Dick move, but a clever Dick move.
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 4:00 PM MST up reply actions
our top 6 hasn’t played very well, we’re lucky to be where we’re at right now. Hopefully Hedjuk, Duchene, Stastny Jones can get it figured out, if not they’re not going anywhere, simple as that.
Peter McNabb thinks I'm outstanding.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Jan 30, 2012 11:07 AM MST reply actions
The top 2 lines were so bad that the 3rd line was able to over take them.
Peter McNabb thinks I'm outstanding.
by An Unmitigated Disaster on Jan 30, 2012 11:08 AM MST up reply actions
The Avs are in the top 10 in the NHL with some pretty elite company in shots per game at 31.1. However, their winning % when they outshoot their competition is only .483. That’s obviously not among those elite teams. Their goals per game is sitting at 24th in the league. The Avs are among the top in the NHL with their Take aways vs their give aways.
There are generally some very good underlying stats that show the Avs are a pretty good possession team. However, opposing goalies are making saves against the Avs at a high rate. I cannot find the specific stat officially anywhere but doing the quick math the Avs in total have 1588 shots on goal (6th) and 124 goals total (24th); so opposing goalies are averaging a save % of .922 against the Avalanche.
The crusaders of advanced statistics tell us that shooting % is luck driven. I don’t know if that’s always true but OK. I do know that there’s a huge difference between Mueller shooting 5 hole on Theo and Galiardi shooting in to his chest in the same situation. I think the % of shots going in could just be a break in luck or a better effort to get guys in the dirty areas as well as just a lack of sniper talent in the top six at times. (The Mueller/Duchene effect). The bottom line is that the Avs are getting a lot of rubber on the goalie and a unusually high % of those shots are getting stopped.
I'll keep this brief.
just a lack of sniper talent in the top six at times
It was awfully kind of you to say “at times” but this is the main problem imo.
by Pinchy The Lobster on Jan 30, 2012 11:22 AM MST up reply actions
Research proposal: How many shots produce rebounds? How many rebounds directly produce goals? Are the Avs having a disproportionate number of shots getting covered or caught or sent out of play? Could the bizarre lack of secondary assists be because pass → shot → rebound → goal isn’t happening as often as pass → shot → whistle?
At exactly what point do you start to realize that life without knowledge is death in disguise?
Excellent idea! Get on it Jib!
We see a wonderful sun-soaked city nestled at the foot of the Rocky Mountains. Enos sees nickels and dimes.
by Bob in Boulder on Jan 30, 2012 11:31 AM MST up reply actions
My research queue is completely full.
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 30, 2012 11:38 AM MST up reply actions
Clear your history and start please.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
Andie might be free…….maybe……
Datsyuk may have done it first, but he learned it from Peter Forsberg.
Thanks for everything Foppa!
Footer: We'll miss seeing you clear the riff raff off your lawn.
by Americanario on Jan 30, 2012 11:41 AM MST up reply actions
During the Edmonton game tomorrow I might have to put some raw counted numbers to this. I don’t know how else to come up with figures except to count them D: Even then the sample size would be hilarious but hey it’s a start right?
At exactly what point do you start to realize that life without knowledge is death in disguise?
I’ll accept any reason short of aliens to explain how Erik Johnson has taken 100 shots and had had 1 go in. Is there anyone in the league with a worse shooting percentage with that many shots?
4th biggest pessimist of MHH.
"There's always next season." -- Jimmy Howard on not winning the Calder Trophy.
Joe Corvo (2/111) is close. But no. No other player with 100 or more shots has less than two goals. Now, EJ plays in the same division as the Sedins. Hm……
At exactly what point do you start to realize that life without knowledge is death in disguise?
by SteveHouse on Jan 30, 2012 11:43 AM MST up reply actions 2 recs
FWIW It’s not all luck drive, just mostly. Galiardi is able to put nice shots in the net too, and his backhander over Backstrom’s shoulder against the Wild is testemount to that.
So yeah, there’s a little bit of skill there, and I do believe the avs are lacking that skill. But I think a good portion of it is bad luck as well.
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 30, 2012 11:41 AM MST up reply actions
How do you know that backhander wasnt luck? Is there some chart you can show me for that particular goal?
by Pinchy The Lobster on Jan 30, 2012 12:44 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
It partially was.
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 30, 2012 12:45 PM MST up reply actions
You are just messing with my head now.
by Pinchy The Lobster on Jan 30, 2012 10:38 PM MST up reply actions
Maybe I’m thinking of the wrong one, but Galiardi had a nice backhander over a goalies shoulder very recently too, I thought
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Jan 30, 2012 2:36 PM MST up reply actions
Gali scored the opening goal against wild and that was a nice backhander that snuck inside the post on Backstrom. If that wasn’t luck then it was poor goaltending on Backstrom because that is more the type of goal where you are throwing it on net and hoping for something good to happen.
Avalanche Hockey: egressing to the mean
There goes Gleason
Cap Floor Team = Cap Floor Results
by Cole D Hamilton on Jan 30, 2012 11:17 AM MST reply actions
did you want Gleason?
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 12:36 PM MST up reply actions
i’d have been happy with him ya. More just surprised, thought he’d be shopped
Cap Floor Team = Cap Floor Results
by Cole D Hamilton on Jan 30, 2012 12:59 PM MST up reply actions
I agree, especially with a full NTC in the first two years of that contract.
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 2:46 PM MST up reply actions
apparently
According to the Ottawa Sun, the Canes were asking this:
“either two No. 1 picks or an ‘A’ prospect and a No. 1 pick in exchange for one of pending UFA Ds Tim Gleason, Bryan Allen or Jaroslav Spacek.”
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 3:47 PM MST up reply actions
Delusional
At exactly what point do you start to realize that life without knowledge is death in disguise?
by SteveHouse on Jan 30, 2012 3:53 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
If the Avs get to the point of being sellers ...
… make Hejduk available.
Yeah, I said it.
Better yet, trade whoever it is that’s been putting on his uniform the last few months and send out search parties for the real Hejduk.
I’m over this nostalgia stuff. He still has some clout that could be parlayed into value, as well as playoff and Cup experience.
My real fear is that Hejduk won’t retire after this season and he’ll put me in a position where I have to actually be disappointed when the Avs re-sign him.
4th biggest pessimist of MHH.
"There's always next season." -- Jimmy Howard on not winning the Calder Trophy.
I’m not opposed to the move, but, what impression does this give to Free Agents in the off season? If we are willing to trade the last member of our 2001 cup team as a rental, and our current captain, couldn’t we just sign and trade any other FA? Perception is reality.
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 12:37 PM MST up reply actions
Perception is reality.
Then let’s hope no potential FAs look at the Jumbotron when they are in town.
4th biggest pessimist of MHH.
"There's always next season." -- Jimmy Howard on not winning the Calder Trophy.
I for one have never seen it, having never been to Colorado but I can imagine the one that the Hershey Bears have is probably better (based on what everyone says about it).
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 2:46 PM MST up reply actions
The Caps traded away their captain Chris Clark a few years ago for Jason Chimera, that’s how Ovi became captain mid season. It didn’t seem to be taken poorly, although Chris Clark isn’t quite Hedjuk.
That’s a tone deaf comment, which is understandable, because I know you don’t bleed Avs like the rest of us do.
And to say that Chris Clark isn’t “quite” Hejduk is quite the understatement. Over 1,000 games played with one team compared to less than 300 that Clark played for the Caps.
No comparison at all.
but VT will learn to bleed burgundy and blue!
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 3:59 PM MST up reply actions
I was being sarcastic with that not quite Hedjuk but apparently it wasn’t obvious. I fully realize Hedjuk matters a lot more to the Avs than Chris Clark ever did to the Caps, who at the end of his term as captain was injured all the time and didn’t play a lot. I think a lot of Caps fans were indifferent to losing him, I realize it wouldn’t be the same to trade away Hedjuk.
Can’t you spare me some slack, remember all Caps fans are bandwagon new fans with no idea what it’s like to win a cup? Or experience any sort of sporting success in our city in the past couple decades? At least your Tebow got you into the playoffs to crash and burn and lose, while the skins were failing at sucking just enough so they are going to have trouble getting a good QB.
I missed it! My meter is officially broken!
I was gonna say very nice stuff about you and all your Varly updates but I just didn’t mention it, sorry, I should have.
I frequently misunderstand things myself, it happens, no biggie.
Did you see the update on the head coach of the Russian national team visiting NHL players that I posted this weekend? The coach is coming back in February and hopes to see Varly play then. He said something about Varly’s play that was sort of incomprehensible in google trans.
Just read a BR article about why Sacco should be fired and remembered why I never go to BR… atrocious
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
Bleacher Report is beyond dumb. They also never defend themselves.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
it was more like FIRE DA SACCOZ, HE PLAYED DUCHAYNEZ ON THE FOORTH LYNE!!! GALI IS A TOP 3 WINGER WHY WAS HE ON THE THIRD LINE BEFORE? like seriously? Gali isn’t a top 3 winger.
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 3:18 PM MST up reply actions
Varly in net tomorrow
So sayeth the official Twitter feed of your Colorado Avalanche.
YAY
Prove us you’re a number 1 Varly!
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Jan 30, 2012 3:49 PM MST up reply actions
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