Hey, Lay Off Varlamov
Okay, folks, I get it. Semyon Varlamov has not exactly been the second coming of St Patrick since his arrival in Denver. In fact, he hasn't even eclipsed the not-so-celebrated Avalanche tenures of guys like Jose Theodore and Craig Anderson. The Avalanche gave up a lot to get Varlamov and lately they are playing like they would like to give up a lot more for Varlamov. Varly has been maddeningly streaky - 13 goals the last 3 games, 5 goals in the 4 games preceding, 18 goals in the 4 games before that, 11 goals in 6 games before that. Overall, his .898 save percentage has him ranked 60th in the league.
But let's not forget one important fact: Varlamov is 23 years old. Just 5 goalies with 9+ appearances this year are younger than Varly - Andres Lindback, Steve Mason (really?), Jhonas Enroth, Jonathan Bernier and Sergei Bobrovsky. He, like so many of his teammates, is just a kid.
To date, Varlamov has 44 career wins (ironically, the exact same total as his 23-year-old former teammate, Michal Neuvirth). I thought it would be fun to see how V-squared matches up with other 23-year-old goalies through the years. Using hockey reference's handy query tool, I was able to pull up the career numbers for all goalies who had at least 40 wins by age 23, narrowing it down to a "modern" era of 1980 or later.
All told, 39 goalies made the list. And Varly is down at the bottom in total wins and has a long way to go to catch up to the leaders.
| Rk | Player | From | To | Tm | Lg | Pos | GP | W | L | T/O | SV% | GAA | SO |
| 1 | Tom Barrasso | 1984 | 1989 | TOT | NHL | G | 310 | 142 | 117 | 35 | 0.885 | 3.38 | 13 |
| 2 | Grant Fuhr* | 1982 | 1986 | EDM | NHL | G | 211 | 126 | 43 | 30 | 0.886 | 3.82 | 2 |
| 3 | Patrick Roy* | 1985 | 1989 | MTL | NHL | G | 187 | 102 | 51 | 24 | 0.894 | 2.90 | 9 |
| 4 | Carey Price | 2008 | 2011 | MTL | NHL | G | 206 | 98 | 76 | 24 | 0.916 | 2.60 | 12 |
| 5 | Jocelyn Thibault | 1994 | 1998 | TOT | NHL | G | 205 | 87 | 71 | 29 | 0.905 | 2.80 | 7 |
| 35 | Semyon Varlamov | 2009 | 2012 | TOT | NHL | G | 90 | 44 | 29 | 13 | 0.910 | 2.60 | 6 |
However, among all those famous peers, Varly has the 4th best save percentage among 23 year olds with 40 career wins. Yes, guys like Roy and Fuhr played in different eras, but Varlamov compares very well with some very good modern-day goalies (plus Chris Osgood *rimshot*). He's also 5th in career GAA.
| Rk | Player | From | To | Tm | Lg | Pos | GP | W | L | T/O | SV% | GAA | SO |
| 1 | Roberto Luongo | 2000 | 2003 | TOT | NHL | G | 194 | 55 | 105 | 19 | 0.916 | 2.73 | 16 |
| 2 | Carey Price | 2008 | 2011 | MTL | NHL | G | 206 | 98 | 76 | 24 | 0.916 | 2.60 | 12 |
| 3 | Kari Lehtonen | 2004 | 2007 | ATL | NHL | G | 110 | 58 | 39 | 9 | 0.911 | 2.78 | 7 |
| 4 | Semyon Varlamov | 2009 | 2012 | TOT | NHL | G | 90 | 44 | 29 | 13 | 0.910 | 2.60 | 6 |
| 5 | Martin Brodeur | 1992 | 1996 | NJD | NHL | G | 168 | 82 | 53 | 26 | 0.910 | 2.40 | 12 |
| 6 | Michal Neuvirth | 2009 | 2012 | WSH | NHL | G | 89 | 44 | 24 | 7 | 0.909 | 2.66 | 6 |
| 7 | Felix Potvin | 1992 | 1995 | TOR | NHL | G | 154 | 74 | 52 | 24 | 0.909 | 2.76 | 5 |
| 8 | Ondrej Pavelec | 2008 | 2011 | ATL | NHL | G | 119 | 41 | 51 | 16 | 0.908 | 3.03 | 6 |
| 9 | Chris Osgood | 1994 | 1996 | DET | NHL | G | 110 | 76 | 19 | 10 | 0.906 | 2.43 | 8 |
| 10 | Marc-Andre Fleury | 2004 | 2008 | PIT | NHL | G | 173 | 76 | 67 | 19 | 0.905 | 2.95 | 11 |
I think the appearance of Kari Lehtonen and Marc-Andre Fleury on the list is both encouraging and telling. As a 23-year old, Lehtonen backstopped an Atlanta team that finished with 97 points under Bob Hartley. In 68 appearances, he had 10 games with 1 goal or less allowed and 20 with 4 goals or more - more or less in line with Varlamov's (and Colorado's) current season (38 / 4 / 10). He has a .919 save percentage this year while Fleury - who also struggled as a youngster - has a .913 save percentage.
Bottom line: we're still reading the very early chapters of the Semyon Varlamov story. Yes, the story is little choppy here at the beginning, but there are many more pages to go and this deal was always about the future, not the present. And hey, perhaps the guy with 54 wins by the age of 23 can help. As a 23-yeard old, Kirk McLean played for a terrible Vancouver Canucks team. He posted an .880 save percentage and led the league in goals allowed, shots allowed and losses. 4 years later, he backstopped the Canucks to the Stanley Cup Finals. Part timer or not, he knows what Varlamov is going through...and he knows that the story gets better. Usually.
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Huzzah!
Thanks for the kool-aid, I’ll drink it. I hate that Varly is weighted against the 1st and 2nd rounders we are losing. It’s one Draft! (well, maybe two). I think even if the Avs don’t make the playoffs this year, the trade will have been forgotten in a few years. He will mature, he will get better, and I for one think he will be worth more (in the long run) than what we gave up to get him. It will be fun to follow at the very least.
Dear DDC,
I will never criticize you ever again. This is exactly what I had been hoping to see. The Avs probably could have traded that 1st and 2nd for a better goaltender right now, like Miller or even Bernier (theoretically), or signed Vokoun for a year or two. This kid is the future in net and he is being judged unfairly. This was your best post. Ever.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
by c6hor8 on Feb 1, 2012 8:59 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
I agree. Great article. SO happy there is some postive press on Varly. (yes, maybe I am biased, but who cares!) DDC, you rock!! Thanks for making my morning with this!
Like c6hor8 wrote above: “Varly is the future in net and is being judge unfairly” … I say: Give him a break and have a little more confidence in him. He will get through this rough patch and shine. I am sure of it!!
Let’s not jump the bandwagon just yet, this is gonna be a fun ride!
"we cough to clear our throats and sigh to clear our hearts"
Finally some optimism.
10 Hurrahs for Burgundy Rainbow! DDC!
I am boobs.
True Appreciator of the Dumba Train
by Thor the Clunge Destroyer on Feb 1, 2012 9:16 PM MST reply actions
Look
Varly is young, he will improve and he has undeniable talent, if you can’t see that then you just don’t like the guy. But the criticism comes with the territory, he’s not playing very well this year and the Avs gave up a ton to get him. I think more than they needed to give up and I know a lot of other fans share that opinion and that’s why people are so frustrated with him. He will get better, especially with Jiggy showing him the ropes.
My problem is with his newly developed fanbase who thinks he is completely exempt from all criticism and I’ve even seen some of them hope for Jiggy to get lit up so people will stop praising him. Who does that? They’re both on the Avs, why would you wish ill on either of them? When either one of them does well it HELPS the Avs. I don’t get it. Everyone needs to chill both ways though, Varly can be criticized when he struggles no player is above that. And for everyone freaking out about how he’s playing, just relax and let the guy develop he could be a very good goaltender for the Avs. We’ve got Jiggy right now who is playing very well, can’t we all just get on board?
Ive never seen anyone, at least here, wish that upon Jiggy, we love him here!
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Feb 1, 2012 10:27 PM MST up reply actions
Guilty …
Okay, yes, on one post on Dater’s blog I did wish poorly on Jiggy - I was really more pissed at the article than Jiggy and I apologize.
I like Giguere (I really do) but never see poor press stories or criticism in his play or when he loses a game or lets in a “soft goal” (and there is plenty of those to comment on) … I agree no one is excempt from criticism …. Just give it on both sides for a change….
"we cough to clear our throats and sigh to clear our hearts"
Welcome!
Okay, yes, on one post on Dater’s blog
Herein lies the problem. Stay away from the Muppets. They’re fine to watch on TV, but you don’t want to interact with them.
2011-2012 Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Vyechnaya Pamyat!
2011-2012 Colorado Avalanche: Chances are rapidly diminishing that this will not suck.
The contrast in performance has a lot to do with perception. When things go bad for Varly, they can go very bad.
Jiggy has yet to give up more than 4 goals in a game and has only done that twice. On top of that, he’s given up one goal or fewer in 7 of his 21 decisions. His consistency this season has been nothing short of excellent considering where his career was before this season.
Meanwhile, Varly has one more shutout than Jiggy, but also has given up 6 goals in a game 3 times this season, plus a 7-spot to Dallas, as well as being yanked twice.
Here’s a graph to illustrate:

Oddly enough, this chart also works well as an example EKG for Joe Sacco when each goalie is in net.
4th biggest pessimist of MHH.
"There's always next season." -- Jimmy Howard on not winning the Calder Trophy.
by Dixomatic on Feb 2, 2012 9:54 AM MST up reply actions 2 recs
RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE
RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE!!!!!!!
Thanks, Joe... Thanks, Peter.... Thanks, Adam....
no thanks for patrick in your sig?
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Feb 1, 2012 10:54 PM MST up reply actions
It was originally for recent retirees. Prob should change it. Meant to. Didn’t.
Rabble.
Thanks, Joe... Thanks, Peter.... Thanks, Adam....
RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Feb 2, 2012 12:30 AM MST up reply actions
However, among all those famous peers, Varly has the 4th best save percentage among 23 year olds with 40 career wins. Yes, guys like Roy and Fuhr played in different eras, but Varlamov compares very well with some very good modern-day goalies (plus Chris Osgood rimshot). He’s also 5th in career GAA.0
The fact that osgood sucks notwithstanding, I really think that you cannot compare SV% and GAA in these different era’s. Unless, of course, you want to bring Roy’s abysmal junior, and first few season numbers into the equation here.
"In my experience, there's no such thing as luck" -Obi Wan Kenobi
O'Reilly works harder than you
ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
by TheRed on Feb 1, 2012 11:05 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
Oh BTW, god job knuckling under to the tagline pressure! :)
"In my experience, there's no such thing as luck" -Obi Wan Kenobi
O'Reilly works harder than you
ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
he was comparing them but then gave the disclaimer that they are from different eras.,
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Feb 1, 2012 11:37 PM MST up reply actions
Roy once posted a .900 save %… and led the league.
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Feb 2, 2012 7:28 AM MST up reply actions
Albeit I’m not alright with Varly playing as he is, .900 is usually the cut off for an above average save%. He is JUST under that, so given that fact, I can be semi alright with it. We need a goalie coach, hardcore, dear Parkunen (or however you spell it) come over here. Make Varly the next Roy. Until then, keep giving Varly 1 of 3 or 1 of 4 starts, hopefully he can get some confidence from a good start or two.
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
We have seen him at his best (Boston??) and his worst (Phoenix??), but I have full faith in Varly and would like to see him get more starts. I love Jiggy but Varly is a good goalie with a very bright future. Good luck tomorrow boys, get back in the W column
Playoffs...playoffs.....playoffs....playoffs!?
I’m predicting another 3-2 loss
I'm not questioning your powers of observation; I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is.
by ProfessorOak on Feb 2, 2012 12:30 AM MST up reply actions
I want a 10-0 win for the Avs.
Of course what will end up happening is the Avs dumping and chasing the puck on their power plays as is par for the course so far.
The reason I'm in town, in case you're wondering, is because of a Kansas City Shuffle.
Look, I want Varly to succeed, but even with whatever “coaching” he has gotten this season, he still falls into the same bad habits (flopping and just plain moving around too much). This is technical stuff that can be fixed, and you can’t put it all on Varly…but it’s also his “style.” Until the Avs get some actual goalie coaching help, I’m of the opinion that what you see is what you will get…a guy who is brilliant at times, but frustratingly terrible at other times, with really no in between.
Goalie coach? We don't need no stinking goalie coach!
So, I read this post right before bed and it got me thinking. A few years ago, Fleury was struggling in Pittsburgh. In fact, there were rumors of him being traded, the Avs being on of the suitors. He had to be around Varly’s age at the time. Didn’t he lose his starting job to Ty Conklin or Hedberg or someone? This shit happens to all young goalies. Now Fleury is considered one of the best and shrugged off that inconsistency. He is a great comparison. Look at his numbers when he was 22 – 23:
2005–06 Pittsburgh Penguins NHL 50 13 27 6 2809 152 1 3.25 .898
2006–07 Pittsburgh Penguins NHL 67 40 16 9 3905 184 5 2.83 .906
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
Fluery had played full seasons before his big struggles though. He was also playing on a completely awful Pens team when he started.
Varly has yet to make it through a full load of a season. Injuries in his first 2, and wild inconsistency this year.
I think he can improve, but I see no effort from the Avs in this department, except their “half month” coach
Goalie coach? We don't need no stinking goalie coach!
Varly’s injuries were fluke and it’s pretty evident that he is not as “prone” as people think. the point is, Fleury was treated very similarly at this age and experience and people need to look beyond his immeidate struggles and raelize it’s a marathon, not a sprint.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
hmmm, I should have mentioned Fleury in the article
DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Feb 2, 2012 7:21 AM MST up reply actions
Haha. You did not mention how Pittsburg was considering (as reported for whatever that is worth) moving him.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
When Sherman made the trade for Varly, I knew it was gonna be a rough road of him finding consistency and honing his game then immediately crossing my fingers that the Avs hire a full-time goalie coach. Fast-forward to the 2nd of February and they still have a part-timer. Young players in general struggle with consistency, not just goalies. Now I’m not saying Varly is free from criticism, but the front office needs to receive most of it; in fact, I’m not sure how much criticism Varly receives, haven’t had the time to check other message boards. I just hope he doesn’t leave the Avs due to not having a full-time goalie coach (knocks on wood).
"They called tripping!? Where did THAT happen?"
"On the ice."
".........my...brain hurts...."
by StoneCutter013 on Feb 2, 2012 7:04 AM MST via mobile reply actions
Good stuff
Sometimes it’s tough to remember how young he is.
That said, Giguere is playing better than Varly, and he should be the starter the rest of the way out this season.
Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
This. And it looks like Sacco is starting to think this way as well
Goalie coach? We don't need no stinking goalie coach!
I agree with both sentiments
DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Feb 2, 2012 7:48 AM MST up reply actions
This is true. I think I can handle Jiggy being #1, it’s better for the team right now. But I really hope they get Varly some coaching to help him improve the issues he is having right now and he still gets to play some.
Neuvy is sucking it up this season too. He played last night and let in two goals that were soft, worse than Varly’s last game. One was from the neutral zone, just like the goal he let McLeod score from the blueline in December. I guess young goalies are just subject to inconsistency. I never would have thought either of them would struggle so badly this season, they didn’t have such big inconsistency problems last season. But they both had Irbe working with them every day, increasingly I am valuing his work. I wonder if part of Neuvy’s issues is that he doesn’t get to play much and work through whatever it is. That would be my concern with Varly as well going forward, although I think that is maybe more of an issue with Neuvy, Varly has come back from time off and played very well. I know you can’t keep playing them though if they don’t play well and the team loses.
absofuckinglutely
DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.
by David Driscoll-Carignan on Feb 2, 2012 7:48 AM MST up reply actions
Bingo.
The Avs score 3 goals – they almost always win.
The Avs score less than 3 goals – they almost always lose.
"He who fucks nuns will later join the church." -The Clash
And hopefully, next year and on ward, when the Avs don’t score 3 goals, Varly will bail them out.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
Even a great goalie should only have to bail out his team like, 1 out of 10 games or so.
Laughter and tears are both responses to frustration and exhaustion. I myself prefer to laugh, since there is less cleaning up to do afterward. - Kv
by MalachiConstant on Feb 2, 2012 8:02 AM MST up reply actions
Problem,
they almost never score 3 goals
2011-2012 Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Vyechnaya Pamyat!
2011-2012 Colorado Avalanche: Chances are rapidly diminishing that this will not suck.
They did? You sure about that? Who were they? Were they full time?
by DiD on Feb 2, 2012 10:05 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Budaj, Varlamov, potato, potahto. Make Varly good in the room and very helpful with shootouts and we’ve been over this all before.
4th biggest pessimist of MHH.
"There's always next season." -- Jimmy Howard on not winning the Calder Trophy.
Whoa. You think they are the same goalie?
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
Obviously they are different skill wise. But win/loss columns and honey badgers have a lot in common.
4th biggest pessimist of MHH.
"There's always next season." -- Jimmy Howard on not winning the Calder Trophy.
Ok then. This sounds like a cool breeze argument. That means Johnson is the same player as O’Brien: 1 goal and a bunch of assists.
Johnson, O’Brien, Jake Gardiner, Travis Hamonic, potato, potatoh, patatow, potateow.
A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.
Winning 14 out of 31.
Save % under 9.
GAA over 3.
Intermittent awesome and then terrible outings.
Can’t nail down the No. 1 job.
Which goalie am I talking about?
Yeah, how dare I compare Varly to Budaj. Apparently flashy saves and good shootout performance are worth more “points.”
Lump me in with CB all you want, and maybe I’m jumping the gun, but go back through so many of last year’s game recap threads and wonder why I get deja vu when reading about rebound control, goalie coaches, intangibles and potential. Maybe we can cling to the idea that the team just plays better for Jiggy than Varly. I’ve seen these arguments before, and I know I sure didn’t come up with them. And nobody who paid money to be in the crowd at the game cares about this stuff. So it must be here that I keep reading it.
4th biggest pessimist of MHH.
"There's always next season." -- Jimmy Howard on not winning the Calder Trophy.
I don’t think Varly is only hot and cold as people suggest. I think he has some medium games as well. I didn’t think his last game against Edmonton was as bad as the previous game against Phoenix or other games where he has allowed 6. Sometimes he plays ok but not great. Recently I’ve seen plenty of people saying he was either amazing or horrible, it’s not quite that simple. Part of my issue with Dater’s rip job blog was he acted like Varly had one of those 6 goals against stinker games, but he wasn’t as bad as that.
Since I didn’t pay attention to Budaj I have no idea how he played so I don’t know how that compares to Varly.
This is true and speaks to the primary flaw in the Avalanche as a whole.
Unless and until there is a wholesale organizational housecleaning, starting at the very top (bye PL, enjoy retirement) and a major effort made to refocus the organization as a whole from one that operates on a skinflint budget with personnel decisions on ice and off made primarily based on nepotism / if the guy has been in the Avs organization before, any and all on ice efforts will be largely tantamount to the rearrangement of deckchairs on the Titanic and the appropriate accompaniment from the band playing on.
2011-2012 Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Vyechnaya Pamyat!
2011-2012 Colorado Avalanche: Chances are rapidly diminishing that this will not suck.
I agree with what you said, David, which is why, for me, Varly’s not in the top 3 Most Disappointing Avs. It would have been great if he’d come out and dominated this year, but it would have also been unrealistic.
by DiD on Feb 2, 2012 9:43 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
Agreed, doubly so.
Laughter and tears are both responses to frustration and exhaustion. I myself prefer to laugh, since there is less cleaning up to do afterward. - Kv
by MalachiConstant on Feb 2, 2012 11:10 AM MST up reply actions
I wonder if this team scored more goals if Varly would take less heat for his inconsistent play?
My brother and I used to say that drowning in beer was like heaven, eh. Now he's not here and I got two soakers, this isn't heaven, this sucks.
he definitely would
Wise men wonder while strong men die.
by ProfessorOak on Feb 2, 2012 12:32 PM MST up reply actions
It is interesting how we started with no goalie before July 1st and then picked up total opposites in Jiggy and Varly. The good news is that they are both really good. Comparing the two seems to be pointless. Varly will be in his prime in a few years. Jiggy’s prime was a few years back. I would like too see them see equal time just from a development standpoint for Varly and a consistency standpoint for Jiggy. Also it has been good to see that the injury prone questions for both at the beginning of the year has seemed to not be an issue. Apparently the front office does not value the goalie coach position enough to get a top quality one for this group so I am sure we will be stuck with that for awhile.

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