Varlamov is Very

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Feb 21, 2012 7:05 AM MST in Avalanche By The Numbers

DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 28: Goalie Semyon Varlamov #1 of the Colorado Avalanche gives up a goal on a shot by Anze Kopitar #11 of the Los Angeles Kings at the Pepsi Center on September 28, 2011 in Denver, Colorado. The Kings defeated the Avlanche 6-0. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)

There was a little girl,
Who had a little curl,
Right in the middle of her forehead.
When she was good,
She was very good indeed,
But when she was bad she was horrid.

-Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

Show of hands, please: who knew that poem was written by Longfellow? If you did, congratulations. You win the home version of the game, which is probably a good thing as I'm guessing you never, ever leave the house anyway. So, while you beam about your fancy book-learnin', I'm going to move on and embrace a different sort of nerdiness: number crunching.

I don't think I'm surprising anyone when I postulate that Semyon Varlamov has been very reminiscent of the girl with a curl - he's either been really, really good or really, really..."horrid" is too strong a word, so let's go with really, really not-very-good. I remain a believer in the long-term outlook for Varly, but thought it would be fun (in a stick hot pokers in your eye sense) to compare Varly's swings with his peers. The ever-valuable hockey-rerefence.com compiles a number of useful splits, including a goalie's performance in wins and losses. To keep this somewhat manageable, I grabbed splits for all Western Conference goalies who have played in 20 games this year plus Craig Anderson just for kicks.

As expect, all goalies play really well in games that they win. In fact, they haven't lost a single one this year (rimshot)

		GP	W	L	T	Sv%
Mason	Win	7	7	0	0	0.968
Backstrom	Win	15	15	0	0	0.960
Elliott	Win	20	20	0	0	0.959
Quick	Win	24	24	0	0	0.954
Khabibulin	Win	12	12	0	0	0.954
Smith	Win	25	25	0	0	0.952
Kiprusoff	Win	27	27	0	0	0.947
Schneider	Win	14	13	0	0	0.946
Hiller	Win	23	22	0	0	0.946
Harding	Win	11	9	0	0	0.944
Rinne	Win	33	32	0	0	0.942
Lehtonen	Win	21	21	0	0	0.941
Niemi	Win	24	23	0	0	0.941
Dubnyk	Win	10	10	0	0	0.941
Howard	Win	32	32	0	0	0.941
Giguere	Win	14	14	0	0	0.940
Halak	Win	17	16	0	0	0.940
Sanford	Win	11	10	0	0	0.939
Luongo	Win	25	25	0	0	0.939
Anderson	Win	27	27	0	0	0.938
Varlamov	Win	15	15	0	0	0.937
Emery	Win	11	11	0	0	0.930
Crawford	Win	21	21	0	0	0.926

To me, that data isn't all that interesting, although I had thought Varly would be a little higher on this list as my perception is that he plays lights out in Avalanche wins. More interesting to me is the stats of a goalie in losses (sorry, I borked the GAA numbers somehow so you'll just have to pretend they are there)

		GP	W	L	T	Sv%
Quick	Loss	26	0	16	10	0.914
Halak	Loss	15	0	10	5	0.906
Giguere	Loss	14	0	9	2	0.903
Sanford	Loss	18	0	13	4	0.901
Elliott	Loss	9	0	6	2	0.900
Harding	Loss	13	0	9	3	0.900
Smith	Loss	21	0	14	7	0.897
Backstrom	Loss	22	0	15	6	0.896
Kiprusoff	Loss	24	0	17	5	0.895
Luongo	Loss	16	0	10	6	0.892
Khabibulin	Loss	22	0	16	5	0.891
Rinne	Loss	20	0	13	6	0.891
Schneider	Loss	8	0	5	0	0.888
Lehtonen	Loss	19	0	15	3	0.888
Hiller	Loss	30	0	19	10	0.883
Niemi	Loss	20	0	14	6	0.882
Anderson	Loss	27	0	19	6	0.879
Crawford	Loss	21	0	14	5	0.877
Dubnyk	Loss	19	0	14	1	0.876
Howard	Loss	12	0	11	1	0.870
Varlamov	Loss	20	0	18	2	0.869
Emery	Loss	12	0	7	2	0.864
Mason	Loss	25	0	21	3	0.859

An interesting list, although I'd say it really speaks as much to goal support as anything else - the first 9 goalies on the list play for the 10 lowest scoring teams in the league (suck it, Luongo). No, what I'm really interested here is the swing: the difference in stats between when a goalie wins and when he loses. Basically, I'm just showing the difference between save percentage in winning games and save percentage in losing games. The lower the number, the more consistent a goalie has been. While I am sure I am doing the math in a decidedly no-Corsi-approved method, it's good enough for me.

	Sv% (W)	Sv% (L)	Sv%Dif
Halak	0.940	0.906	0.034
Giguere	0.940	0.903	0.037
Sanford	0.939	0.901	0.038
Quick	0.954	0.914	0.040
Harding	0.944	0.900	0.044
Luongo	0.939	0.892	0.047
Crawford	0.926	0.877	0.049
Rinne	0.942	0.891	0.051
Kiprusoff	0.947	0.895	0.052
Lehtonen	0.941	0.888	0.053
Smith	0.952	0.897	0.055
Schneider	0.946	0.888	0.058
Anderson	0.938	0.879	0.059
Elliott	0.959	0.900	0.059
Niemi	0.941	0.882	0.059
Hiller	0.946	0.883	0.063
Khabibulin	0.954	0.891	0.063
Backstrom	0.960	0.896	0.064
Dubnyk	0.941	0.876	0.065
Emery	0.930	0.864	0.066
Varlamov	0.937	0.869	0.068
Howard	0.941	0.870	0.071
Mason	0.968	0.859	0.109

The numbers are very much in line with what I suspected. J.S. Giguere has been extremely consistent all year from game to game. On the other hand, Varlamov has shown inconsistency of some significance. And that really is the heart of what's been the problem this year. When he's been good, he's been good enough to help the Avalanche win. But, when he's been bad...ugh, it has not been pretty. I don't know if Longfellow was a hockey fan or not, but his description of the little girl with a curl certainly works here.

Tweet Comment 57 comments | 1 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

All I got from this is that Varly is better than Lord Howard.

I'll keep this brief.

by Dario on Feb 21, 2012 7:11 AM MST reply actions 1 recs

That is not possible my friend

2011-12 Colorado Avalanche: Ruling the East, but bending over for the Northwest

by chiavsfan on Feb 21, 2012 7:15 AM MST up reply actions

Someone is going to ~~Hell~~ Detroit for blasphemy.

Go Avs.
Go Blues.

by Tony Trujillo on Feb 21, 2012 9:43 AM MST up reply actions

I think you were looking for “less than outstanding”

2011-12 Colorado Avalanche: Ruling the East, but bending over for the Northwest

by chiavsfan on Feb 21, 2012 7:15 AM MST reply actions

So, Varly needs to play better day in day out. Maybe I am completely blind by hope, but I would rather some inconsistency now as he learns to be good every night as opposed to him being lights out one year and then sucking; hi Steve Mason, enjoy Europe.

A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.

by c6hor8 on Feb 21, 2012 7:26 AM MST reply actions

I still wish the Avs would pony up the dough for the extra help. The raw talent on Varly is there, but it needs to be refined, and just having a veteran goalie on the bench and a guy who works two weeks a month is NOT enough

2011-12 Colorado Avalanche: Ruling the East, but bending over for the Northwest

by chiavsfan on Feb 21, 2012 7:31 AM MST up reply actions

The goalie coach issue has picked up steam recently and I will be intrigued to find out what the Avs do this off season.

A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.

by c6hor8 on Feb 21, 2012 7:37 AM MST up reply actions

Varly is a serious, career-hinging, franchise-hinging, investment. I imagine they’ll take care of it if they have the foresight.

A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.

by c6hor8 on Feb 21, 2012 7:38 AM MST up reply actions

yeah I think we would bitch about the goalie coach thing even if St Patrick was in net. in this case, though, I think it’s needed

DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Feb 21, 2012 7:39 AM MST up reply actions

Totally. I have a hard time believing that the Avs flat out refuse to believe it’s necessary; it’s illogical to me.

A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.

by c6hor8 on Feb 21, 2012 7:42 AM MST up reply actions

I think the thing that gets me the most is Brian Elliott.

Stuff like: I worked hard in the offseason with my goalie coach. He is available to me when I need him, he worked hard with me at the beginning of the season…every time he talks success he talks about his goalie coach.

Again Hitch’s system probably helps, but he was putting those numbers up before the coaching switch.

That and the Goalie Guild’s complete disbelief at teams that don’t have a full time goalie coach

2011-12 Colorado Avalanche: Ruling the East, but bending over for the Northwest

by chiavsfan on Feb 21, 2012 7:52 AM MST up reply actions

That can’t be right. In the 21 games that he won, Crawford has a 1.00 GAA? That’s INSANE. Am I misreading these stats?

by JProulx on Feb 21, 2012 7:49 AM MST reply actions

Crawford is Varly without the crazy athletics. When he is on, he is ON…but he is downright horrific when he is off

2011-12 Colorado Avalanche: Ruling the East, but bending over for the Northwest

by chiavsfan on Feb 21, 2012 7:53 AM MST up reply actions

That’s an unbelievable goals against average. Even if that’s only when winning, even if your team has a good defensive core, even with all of the other considerations… Over 21 games he averaged out to 1.00 GAA.

Unbelievable. Way to go, Crawford.

His total GAA is 2.87, though. Oof.

by JProulx on Feb 21, 2012 7:55 AM MST up reply actions

sorry GAA numbers are wrong. thought it was just for losses but it was messed up for both.

Crawford has a 2.12 GAA in wins.

DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Feb 21, 2012 7:56 AM MST up reply actions

Seems more reasonable

2011-12 Colorado Avalanche: Ruling the East, but bending over for the Northwest

by chiavsfan on Feb 21, 2012 7:56 AM MST up reply actions

......

by JProulx on Feb 21, 2012 7:57 AM MST up reply actions

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.

by c6hor8 on Feb 21, 2012 8:21 AM MST up reply actions

Look at that run support that Loungo gets.

Peter McNabb thinks I'm outstanding.

by An Unmitigated Disaster on Feb 21, 2012 8:23 AM MST reply actions

Verylmov

At exactly what point do you start to realize that life without knowledge is death in disguise?

by SteveHouse on Feb 21, 2012 8:25 AM MST via Android app reply actions

Varly is Internet stock.

4th biggest pessimist of MHH.
"There's always next season." -- Jimmy Howard on not winning the Calder Trophy.

by Dixomatic on Feb 21, 2012 8:26 AM MST reply actions

Hopefully his bubble doesn’t burst too early

2011-12 Colorado Avalanche: Ruling the East, but bending over for the Northwest

by chiavsfan on Feb 21, 2012 8:26 AM MST up reply actions

Don’t worry, we debt-funded his acquisition.

by JProulx on Feb 21, 2012 8:28 AM MST up reply actions

so

Good work, I actually like it. I’m going to take the analysis one step further…(all quick estimates here, so assume a larger margin of error)

Average # of SA/game is 30.3 for the league. For the Avs it is 29.2

League Average SV in Wins (West) is .941. Varly’s is .937. Over 15 games (at .937 vs .941). In wins he’s given up only 1.75 (lets call it 2) goals more than the average WC goalie would have. But who cares, the Avs won anyways and 2 goals is probably within margin of random chance anyways, especially given it’s only 15 games.

In losses though… The Average Save% is .891 (with a healthy margin of error there). OVer 20 games… A WC Average goalie would have given up 12.85 (lets call it 13) less than Varlamov. Given the Corsiatti’s estimate is ~6G per win (or 3G per standings point) that means Varly has cost the avs ~ 4 points this season with his below average play.

4 points right now would put the Avs in the playoffs.

again, this is an estimation, there’s more subtle facotrs going into this, but… yeesh. That’s not good.

Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time

by Jibblescribbits on Feb 21, 2012 8:51 AM MST reply actions

I definitely would agree with that. with the added reminder that Varly costing the Avs a playoff spot is a huge boon for his former team

DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Feb 21, 2012 8:57 AM MST up reply actions

KGB?

Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time

by Jibblescribbits on Feb 21, 2012 9:00 AM MST up reply actions

He said former. Not other.

2011-2012 Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Vyechnaya Pamyat!
2011-2012 Colorado Avalanche: Chances are rapidly diminishing that this will not suck.

by Hopfenkopf on Feb 21, 2012 1:22 PM MST up reply actions

Also, the Answer to one of your questions is obvioulsy: No: me no rite go0d.

Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time

by Jibblescribbits on Feb 21, 2012 9:15 AM MST up reply actions

You lost me at “so”.

But pissed me off at “That’s not good.”

A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.

by c6hor8 on Feb 21, 2012 9:53 AM MST up reply actions

so

that’s not good?

Maybe
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time

by Jibblescribbits on Feb 21, 2012 10:03 AM MST up reply actions

But it’s possible

2011-12 Colorado Avalanche: Ruling the East, but bending over for the Northwest

by chiavsfan on Feb 21, 2012 10:30 AM MST up reply actions

Maybe.

Just a Colorado girl in Montana who ♥s the Avs and writes for Mile High Hockey.

by andidee15 on Feb 21, 2012 11:07 AM MST up reply actions

You’re smart.

Hawks fan #1: you're terrible landeskog
Hawks fan #2 He's not that bad
Hawks fan #1: he scores goals against us and makes me feel like a pedo. that’s two things

by DiD on Feb 21, 2012 1:26 PM MST up reply actions

Looks like we gave up a 1st and 2nd for a younger Craig Anderson?

We see a wonderful sun-soaked city nestled at the foot of the Rocky Mountains. Enos sees nickels and dimes.

by Bob in Boulder on Feb 21, 2012 9:36 AM MST reply actions

their career win/loss splits are VERY similar

DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Feb 21, 2012 9:37 AM MST up reply actions

Was Craig Andreson ever the youngest starter in the league?

A man who stole my whisky used the defense that no one could resist a bottle of Scotch. I had no choice but to testify on his behalf.

by c6hor8 on Feb 21, 2012 9:54 AM MST up reply actions

We had a guy once who was pretty young the first time he won a cup.

We see a wonderful sun-soaked city nestled at the foot of the Rocky Mountains. Enos sees nickels and dimes.

by Bob in Boulder on Feb 21, 2012 10:02 AM MST up reply actions

Settling for nothing less than a saint?

At exactly what point do you start to realize that life without knowledge is death in disguise?

by SteveHouse on Feb 21, 2012 10:21 AM MST via Android app up reply actions

David Aebischer?

2011-12 Colorado Avalanche: Ruling the East, but bending over for the Northwest

by chiavsfan on Feb 21, 2012 10:30 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs

Plus a full set of hair.

Go Avs.
Go Blues.

by Tony Trujillo on Feb 21, 2012 1:08 PM MST up reply actions

which is probably a good thing as I’m guessing you never, ever leave the house anyway

OR you heard that poem every single night before you went to bed until you were seven because you were a little girl with naturally curly hair.

When hell freezes over, I'll play hockey there, too.
Mile High Hockey - Asst. Editor
The Hockey Writers - Avalanche Correspondent

by Cheryl Bradley on Feb 21, 2012 10:29 AM MST reply actions

and you don’t think your temperament was a factor?

DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Feb 21, 2012 10:37 AM MST up reply actions

Nope, not one little bit. No way. Couldn’t be.

When hell freezes over, I'll play hockey there, too.
Mile High Hockey - Asst. Editor
The Hockey Writers - Avalanche Correspondent

by Cheryl Bradley on Feb 21, 2012 10:39 AM MST up reply actions

I didn’t think so. can’t believe I even floated that out there

DDC is deeply embedded throughout this blog. For better or worse, his taint taints us all.

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Feb 21, 2012 10:45 AM MST up reply actions

Puck don’t lie.

We see a wonderful sun-soaked city nestled at the foot of the Rocky Mountains. Enos sees nickels and dimes.

by Bob in Boulder on Feb 21, 2012 10:37 AM MST reply actions

My Buddy said it best:

Never bet the farm when you need a Russian Goalie to do well for you.

Slightly racist/xenophobic/culturally insensitive but accurate as well.

I just shake my head…. especially after that Jets game… some great moment, some moments that he couldn’t do anything about, and some moments where the D just fudged him in the goathoop.

I just shake my head. Maybe Quincey can get us a 1st rounder from someone…….

by Markopolo on Feb 21, 2012 12:21 PM MST reply actions

Youth. Given time and a coach he trusts, he’ll be fine.

OK Shermie, time to be the shepherd

by Busted Twigg on Feb 21, 2012 12:24 PM MST up reply actions

But can the Avs provide that?

2011-12 Colorado Avalanche: Ruling the East, but bending over for the Northwest

by chiavsfan on Feb 21, 2012 12:31 PM MST up reply actions

Yes.

Question is, WILL they.

2011-2012 Lokomotiv Yaroslavl: Vyechnaya Pamyat!
2011-2012 Colorado Avalanche: Chances are rapidly diminishing that this will not suck.

by Hopfenkopf on Feb 21, 2012 1:24 PM MST up reply actions

Dunno

I.Just.Do.Not.Know.

If I’m offering a 3 year extension to an older Giguere or a younger Varlamov………………

You’d have to convince me hardcore to give it to Varlie right now.

Can’t we just force a team to trade us their awesome franchise goalie, like Montreal did years ago? Hey Nashville???? Couldya couldya?

by Markopolo on Feb 21, 2012 1:05 PM MST up reply actions

This is why we pay you the big bucks, DDC. Very nicely done.

Hawks fan #1: you're terrible landeskog
Hawks fan #2 He's not that bad
Hawks fan #1: he scores goals against us and makes me feel like a pedo. that’s two things

by DiD on Feb 21, 2012 1:22 PM MST reply actions

Regarding Varlamov

A part of the explanation may also come from Varlamov’s save percentage on special teams: which is the atrocious .821. This is only better than Reimer and Mason.

What makes this worse is that he has conceded 26 goals in total (T-8th worst in the league, where only Mason has a similar number of starts), whilst facing the 4th least shots against per 60 minutes (in front of only Giggy, Bryzgalov and Montoya).

Considering Giguere has the far superior stat line of .880, 12GA in a similar environment – you’ve got to wonder if the goalie coach shouldn’t be focussing on helping Varlamov in penalty kill situations.

I have no doubt that conceding a powerplay goal against every game is not going to help you win – especially with our low scoring offense. Also, I wouldn’t under-estimate the detriment that this is doing to morale when this happens as well – given our PK is limiting the amount of shots generated on the PP very well.

by HugoAgogo on Feb 21, 2012 2:22 PM MST reply actions

Goalie what? Coach?

2011-12 Colorado Avalanche: Ruling the East, but bending over for the Northwest

by chiavsfan on Feb 21, 2012 5:41 PM MST up reply actions

Yeah, Mister Part-Time Goalie Coach

by HugoAgogo on Feb 21, 2012 7:36 PM MST up reply actions

Regarding Varlamov

A part of the explanation may also come from Varlamov’s save percentage on special teams: which is the atrocious .821. This is only better than Reimer and Mason.

by HugoAgogo on Feb 21, 2012 2:22 PM MST reply actions

I’m curious about the goal support both Varly and Jiggy get in their wins and losses.

Varly!

by niwotsblessing on Feb 21, 2012 4:12 PM MST reply actions

It seems like Varly just gets frustrated and kind of gives up when things don’t go right in a game. After a certain amount of adversity, he’s not trying nearly as hard or playing as focused to prevent goals, so he allows more of them in those games. So then he has a bunch of really bad games and then really good games where he is focused, but not a lot in between. This season, so far he’s played 35 games, and half, 14 games he has a sv % of .926 and higher. 2 games he’s been right around league average (I think it’s around .911) with .913 and .909, and the other 16 games were .900 and below. He wasn’t like this last season, he didn’t fall apart in games. I hope with proper coaching he could reduce this tendency he’s developed this season.

Varly has had not great numbers on the PK in the past. He was alright in 2010-2011 .892 PK sv%, but not good in 2009-10 .802 PK sv%.

by vtcapsfan99 on Feb 21, 2012 7:10 PM MST reply actions