FanPost

Landeskog is getting hot

Did this real quick for Amit, whose request was seconded by I think shotguns, in the last GDT.

Gabriel Landeskog is trending up, like, way up. You don't need me to tell you his underlying advanced stats are fantastic, with slightly sheltered zone starts. Copper and Blue takes initiative on that front. (Copper and Blue: Understanding Advanced Metrics, So You Don't Have To.) His last ten games stats are awesome; as of tonight's game in Detroit he's sitting at 1.1 PPG over the last ten games. Not bad, rookie, not bad. It's driven by goals, rather than assists; he's at .7 GPG in the last ten. This has been a steady increase starting somewhere around Game 49, which was a win against LA about a month ago.

Landeskogpp10g_medium

Here's what I'd guess explains an 18-game goal drought you can see that covers most of November and early December. As the season wore on, it became clear that the best lines on the team were not Stastny's or Duchene's or even Stastny and Duchene. It was 92 37 34, or 92 37 23, or 92 37 (whoever). So they started to see stronger D-pairings, and that took some time to adjust to. Welcome to the NHL bro, go play against #1-2 D-men for 16 minutes a night.

Now he has TURNED IT ON. Honestly it's hard to say how sustainable a 70+ point pace is for a rookie. Probably not very, but we'll check back in with him after an 82-game season or two. His shooting percentage has steadily improved over the year, up to 8.9% now. He's shot 15.8% in the month since he's started getting hot. If we assume (big assumption) that I'm right, and he was struggling to adjust to the NHL's top defensive game, and that he isn't just going to turn out to be a maddeningly streaky goal scorer, we can probably meet in the middle... I'd feel comfortable guessing 11%. An S% of exactly 11%, with his pace of shooting, projects to nearly 30 goal seasons--a likely 60/70 point guy.

Lots of assumption and lots of best-case-scenarios in the paragraph above. Bottom line: he's heating up at the right time, amit, and only time will tell which pace he sustains--if either.

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